Newspoll: 50-50

A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks finds Labor up three points on the primary vote and a surge in Kevin Rudd’s approval rating, although a drop for the Greens blunts the impact somewhat on two-party preferred.

A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.

Full tables here courtesty of GhostWhoVotes. Apologies for my tardiness in relating all this – I was a victim of the power blackout which struck Melbourne’s hipster belt last night.

UPDATE (11/7): Newspoll has pleasingly provided state-by-state breakdowns combining this week’s and last week’s polling, and while only primary votes are provided, applying 2010 preference flows to them and rounding to the nearest half a point gives results of 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in New South Wales; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria; 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition in Queensland; 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia; and 51.5-48.5 to Labor in South Australia. This supports the impression from the state breakdowns in the BludgerTrack sidebar, which were calculated off a weak base of data, that the leadership change has meant big gains for Labor in New South Wales but little or no gain in Victoria. However, the gain in Queensland is smaller than might have been expected. Labor is well up in the smaller states, though the samples here would have been small. The primary vote numbers can be perused on GhostWhoVotes’ Twitter feed. This data will be put to use in the next instalment of BludgerTrack, which will hopefully be posted late this evening.

UPDATE 2: Now Morgan comes to the state breakdowns party, with results from its most recent multi-mode poll (the one showing Labor well in front) showing 54.5-45.5 to Labor in New South Wales, 56.5-43.5 to Labor in Victoria, 57-43 to Labor in Queensland (!), 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia, 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in South Australia and 52-48 to Labor in Tasmania, from samples ranging from 1070 in New South Wales to 150 in Tasmania. Read all about it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,126 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Oh, I was looking for my reference to the Xenophon being relaunched as the Investigator, among other things.

    Couldn’t find it, but a good deal of old gold there.

  2. zoidlord…I think infrastructure for sure. And some re-working of the tax scales to add disposable income to the lower half of households…

  3. Gravatar and other mysteries.

    A bludger posted the link to Garlo’s (YES!) Pies Facebook.

    I posted a comment about stuffing their faces with taxpayer funded pies, wondering if they got a receipt.

    This evening an email from a person completely unknown came in response.

    Elizabeth Streep commented on your Wall post.
    Elizabeth wrote: “I’m pretty sure Garlos boss gave Tony a nice little donation in a brown paper bag.”

    The mystery is that I didn’t post an email address.

  4. Puff, the Magic Dragon. [1983]

    Posted Wednesday, July 10, 2013 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    I just watched the video. It is patronising and insulting to head-pat disabled and short stature people. They are adult human-beings worthy of the same respect as anyone else. It may have been a friendly hair-scrunch head pat but it was wrong. condescending and ignorant.

    FFS Puff, go take another look like I just did. Rudd was bending down, giving the woman a hug, cheek to cheek, and she was delighted. As he separated, he scrunched her hair kinda, and the smile on her face intensified. In what universe was that gesture offensive to that lady?

  5. Drat!

    I flake out during the lunch break, wake up to find I’ve missed the Haddin massacre.

    And there’s no one left on PB.

  6. Well looks as though I have the blog to myself :devil:
    Been looking back over the blog looks as though the triumphant Ruddsters arn’t letting up, just wish they had given the same loyalty they are asking us to give now when Julia G was PM
    Off to dinner now with friends another birthday. On an amazingly warm Scottish evening1

  7. Spider how are you, I have seen some of your comments and they are good, have to go out in about half an hour see my comment above Which state do you live in?

  8. Spider how are you, I have seen some of your comments and they are good, have to go out in about half an hour see my comment above Which state do you live in?

  9. G’day, Mari. Glad you had a great time in Iceland. What part of Scotland?

    I haven’t spent more than a day there there since 1983 – another great trip when we had the wonderful Neolithic/ Celtic sites to ourselves – no archeologists, no fences, no visitors’ centres, no other visitors.

    One of 1998’s shocks, returning to England after a 15 years’ break, was the massive invasion of often very tacky “tourist attractions”.

  10. Cricket over. Papers hardly updated since last night. Nothing much doing. Might just roll over & try to go back to sleep.

  11. Hi Mari, sorry, I’ve been away, watching the cricket. I’m from Queensland, Brisbane although I lived in NZ from 1966 until I returned in 2005. I always enjoy reading of your travels. Off to bed now.

  12. OPT
    Up ner Aberdeen staying with the Gordon clan, back to Edinburgh on Sunday to the family.Then down to England to see rellies and friends
    Night to both you and Spider off for the birthday party of one of the Gordon clan

  13. bemused:

    [I am not into that turning the other cheek stuff.]

    Not offering the other cheek and retaliating are different things. If someone is simply being obnoxious, letting it ‘go through to the keeper’ is often best.

    You aren’t compelled to respond to everything.

  14. what a lot of rot, and Julia had done that the same people would of ignored it, {re patting head}
    I am not sure she would of but that’s not the point.
    we are all different

    I also noticed at another blog the news said blalbla
    that mr rudd was not happy about the captains pick
    read in the newspaper
    low behold, KR said he was happy with it, so an opinion was given blah
    the same people took with a grain of salt what the papers
    regarding what JG said
    and reacted in situation, and what right to do so at the time
    can we stick to that now sigh

    put in perspective, no one thought it was strange to kiss a fish


    can we stick to policy after all that’s what we really wanted the whole time JG was PM
    not nit picking.

  15. briefly@2077


    I cannot comment about mining and construction. I know nothing much about them. But I do know that in food manufacturing, metal working and fabrication, instrumentation and technical services, and in hospitality (especially in locations away from Perth), 457′s have been very widely used for at least 15 years. There are many others too. The economy would be stuffed without them.

    Yeah, right. So in 15 years they can’t be bothered training up a local workforce and so build their business model around 457 visas.

    Exactly what we need to get rid of.

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