A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.
Full tables here courtesty of GhostWhoVotes. Apologies for my tardiness in relating all this – I was a victim of the power blackout which struck Melbourne’s hipster belt last night.
UPDATE (11/7): Newspoll has pleasingly provided state-by-state breakdowns combining this week’s and last week’s polling, and while only primary votes are provided, applying 2010 preference flows to them and rounding to the nearest half a point gives results of 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in New South Wales; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria; 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition in Queensland; 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia; and 51.5-48.5 to Labor in South Australia. This supports the impression from the state breakdowns in the BludgerTrack sidebar, which were calculated off a weak base of data, that the leadership change has meant big gains for Labor in New South Wales but little or no gain in Victoria. However, the gain in Queensland is smaller than might have been expected. Labor is well up in the smaller states, though the samples here would have been small. The primary vote numbers can be perused on GhostWhoVotes’ Twitter feed. This data will be put to use in the next instalment of BludgerTrack, which will hopefully be posted late this evening.
UPDATE 2: Now Morgan comes to the state breakdowns party, with results from its most recent multi-mode poll (the one showing Labor well in front) showing 54.5-45.5 to Labor in New South Wales, 56.5-43.5 to Labor in Victoria, 57-43 to Labor in Queensland (!), 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia, 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in South Australia and 52-48 to Labor in Tasmania, from samples ranging from 1070 in New South Wales to 150 in Tasmania. Read all about it.
Didn’t Paul Keating pat the Queen on the bum? 😈
*crashing* 😛
Centre, you’re not trying very hard :D.
If it was the PM, any PM of Australia, too right. Does anyone rally believe Rudd went out of his way to offend someone in public?
Showson..
[$114 billion is a huge price tag.]
It is. But its not written on stone either. There are better ways to build the project and do so at half that cost.
The lead author of the the HSR report is none other than Aecom, the consultancy hired to prove that building a rail station in Newcastle would cost $500M.
You were all getting worked up about Abbott telling some rude journalist from the leftie rag Guardian to calm down, but Rudd pats a disabled woman on the head like she is his pet poodle and suddenly all is well
Sean Tisme, eh, are you reading the same posts I am? All is not well!
Try not to drown in that stormy teacup there Sean 🙂
[A bullet train does 300km/h. Assuming the train doesn’t make any stops thats at least 3 hours. Add a stop at Canberra and you are looking at 3 1/2 hours on a train.
Including security and waiting times a flight from Melbourne to Sydney takes 2 hours by plane. So the bullet train is much slower.]
Well you didn’t read the report did you?
The report says it will take the same time by train as by plane.
I find it amazing Puff that you find a pat on the head so offensive then get on this blog and tell those you disagree with to get f….d in the most aggressive manner possible. Talk about offensive.
@Puff/2047
Gillard had her own faults.
The issue is that it was reported on ABC 7:30 and media are titling it ‘PM under fire’.
I’ve been pinched/touched by disabled people because they can’t help it, but I don’t see it reported in the news.
It happens on both sides.
Just because it didn’t happen to JG doesn’t mean other’s will know the do’s vs don’t when interacting with disabled.
@Sean/2055
Your a sick person overall.
[The report says it will take the same time by train as by plane.]
Jetstars website says different.
It really depends how early you rock up at the airport and get through security.
$115 Billion could get everyone a chauffeured limo ride to the airport
[There are lots of projects, large and not so large, that will generate better productivity outcomes for decades. We should build them.]
Nothing could match the productivity games achievable by a fibre NBN.
2063
There are plenty of projects that should be built in addition to the fibre to the premises NBN.
It does not approach the batt or was that verbal punch laid on Bernie Banton by Abbott. But then, that IS a whole different ball game.
To pat someone on the head IS patronising and demeaning. Particularly to a person with a disability.
To tell a woman reporter to ‘calm down’ is both, as well as dismissive. As instantly evidenced by the smug smirk on the face of the guy next to Abbott.
To put one’s arms around the shoulders of two indigenous men at a formal ceremony is insulting, patronising, and exploitative and as unconsciously unaware as any other thing Rudd did today or yesterday.
bemused @ 2017….
The labour shortages in WA have been very real, at until recently. Maybe that will start to change. The expansion of the workforce through the 1990’s and 2000’s really allowed the economy to expand much faster than other wise would have occurred, to the very significant of all in the Australian economy, whether they’re located in WA or not.
The point is, if there are genuine shortages at prevailing rates, then employers should be happy to recruit 457’s and pay them the industry rate. If the employer is just trying to find a way to cut costs, and the market is actually short, then the temporary worker will be able to leave the first employer and accept a job at the “correct rate” with another. The first employer will then be worse off. He will have lost his recruit and will have to explain why to the Department. He may be unable to recruit new 457’s in future, so will have his recruitment choices diminished. The second employer will be better off, because he will have been able to recruit a new worker at the going rate, and will not face the same labour shortages as his competitor. The 457 worker, of course, will be better off and the economy as a whole will be more productive.
If there is an over-supply of workers then adding new recruits will just make the over-supply worse. Of course, in this case an employer may still try to use new 457 recruits as a way of cutting costs. If the worker is indentured he or she may be forced to accept lower pay, which will harm them and may affect other workers in the same occupation. If they are not indentured, recruits will be able to find alternative work, tending to reverse the oversupply and reducing the ability of the employer to impose lower pay on his workers.
It is always better for workers in general if they all have mobility. The moment they lose their freedom of movement, they become vulnerable, and their vulnerability will affect the conditions under which others are also employed. This is just self-evident and is the reason indentures were abolished. At a certain level, indentured workers are the property of the employer. This is iniquitous.
The essential point is that indenturing some workers is sufficient to limit the bargaining power of all, including those who are not indentured. We are allowing the temporary workforce to be turned into an underclass. This is not only bad economics. It is inexcusable in any case.
Paul Keating put his hand on the small of the Queen’s back, presumably to assist her. This breach of protocol namely touching the Queen’s person appeared not to outrage the Queen, only the British Press. Who evidently can find a certain sensitivity when it comes to invading certain personal spaces.
Briefly, hi.
Were you Blind Optimist in an earlier incarnation?
briefly@2066
Yeah? Well so has been the reluctance to hire workers perceived as potential ‘troublemakers’ aka unionists, and others without industry connections.
There have been countless stories in the media of tradesmen and others unable to get a job in the mining industry while they were hiring 457 workers.
Industry bleats are as self-serving as Gina’s desire for $2/day workers.
[2062
Sean Tisme
The report says it will take the same time by train as by plane.
Jetstars website says different.]
That is like asking the LNP if they recommend voting for the Greens…very funny 🙂
[Paul Keating put his hand on the small of the Queen’s back, presumably to assist her. This breach of protocol namely touching the Queen’s person appeared not to outrage the Queen, only the British Press. Who evidently can find a certain sensitivity when it comes to invading certain personal spaces.]
This is a perfect reason why we should be a Republic.
The Queen is ultimate A PERSON! Not some kind of demi-god.
@Crikey/2067
Perhaps some standards to be put in place and be notified before entering, the media shouldn’t be using the ‘under fire’ tag in it’s headlines.
[2068
crikey whitey
Briefly, hi.
Were you Blind Optimist in an earlier incarnation?]
Very well spotted, cw…years ago, yes. You are a very perceptive bludger 🙂
Bit of full moon insanity about today, and some faux rage over naughty Rudd. Of course if Jillard did these things the very same people would rationalise how wonderful she would be for it.
Do we have Andrew Bolt’s daughter and wife on here? (if he has same)
I find someone dismissing dignity for people with disabilities because their own pet politician did the deed highly offensive and I will react any way I damn well please.
TP
Not a chance. If PMJG did that I would be outraged just the same. She didn’t.
[2069….bemused]
I cannot comment about mining and construction. I know nothing much about them. But I do know that in food manufacturing, metal working and fabrication, instrumentation and technical services, and in hospitality (especially in locations away from Perth), 457’s have been very widely used for at least 15 years. There are many others too. The economy would be stuffed without them.
[I find it amazing Puff that you find a pat on the head so offensive then get on this blog and tell those you disagree with to get f….d in the most aggressive manner possible. Talk about offensive.]
A lot if not all of this incandescent hissy fitting is all to do with an inability to deal with the fortunes of Gillard.
Rudd, like Abbott, has that powerful man syndrome, where the needs and dignity of others with less powerful are not part of their consciousness.
I will track down the report I read today on research into that subject.
TP
And you can join the rest of the ignorant pondscum in the PB chuckbucket of people with no care for the dignity of people with disabilities.
TP,
‘hissy fitting’ is also a sexist comment, so you can go to the bottom of the chuck bucket, where you belong.
I am out of here for the night, I need a shower after talking to you lot.
Shows On. I was referring to my 2065, someone else referred to the Queen.
………….
Zoidlord. As on of many, I am fed up with the inflammatory, misleading, tabloidish headlines.
[2082
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
TP,
‘hissy fitting’ is also a sexist comment, so you can go to the bottom of the chuck bucket, where you belong.]
bravo, P,tMD
Briefly 2073.
Why, thank you sir.
I was going through William’s old drawers and happened upon your gravatar.
Did I have one?
Yes, surprisingly.
I have a recollection that when Gravatar’s came into use, they mysteriously attached themselves to posts of an earlier era.
I was looking at 2007, they were definitely not in use then.
I was an absentee for quite a while…bought a new computer, new suit, new shoes…
Shit. Apostrophe blunder.
oh, then my past has caught up with me 🙂
And there I was, vainly hoping it was the indelible eloquence of my prose that gave me away.
In honour of ignorance.
Especially in the comments.
Eighty years since the Daytona trial of a teacher who taught evolution.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/evolution.html?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=socialmedia&utm_campaign=20130710&utm_content=scopestrial1
Just for you crikey whitey..
http://www.apostrophecatastrophes.com/
2007 was an eternity ago, in polling terms. What drew you back?
@Briefly,
Interesting comments on the WA situation…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-10/the-slowdown-in-mining-construction-continues-to/4812784?section=business
Seems like WA is falling into more recession state?
briefly,
Its was the inedible eloquence of your prose 🙂
cud…that is quite a mouthful
Cud Chewer.
Thanks. Bookmarked.
Liked this
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Misogynistic Apostrophe Catastrophe
My friend Kate alerted me to this news story about a state representative from New Hampshire who made an offensive comment about women. The worst part about this incident is that Peter Hansen refers to all women as “vagina’s,” making his statement even more catastrophic. Clearly Hansen knows nothing about women, or punctuation.
zoidlord…things are slowing down here, but we’re not in a recession yet. There is still plenty of work around, though the curve has flattened out. Hopefully the costs will start to come down…WA is ridiculously expensive at times.