A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.
Full tables here courtesty of GhostWhoVotes. Apologies for my tardiness in relating all this – I was a victim of the power blackout which struck Melbourne’s hipster belt last night.
UPDATE (11/7): Newspoll has pleasingly provided state-by-state breakdowns combining this week’s and last week’s polling, and while only primary votes are provided, applying 2010 preference flows to them and rounding to the nearest half a point gives results of 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in New South Wales; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria; 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition in Queensland; 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia; and 51.5-48.5 to Labor in South Australia. This supports the impression from the state breakdowns in the BludgerTrack sidebar, which were calculated off a weak base of data, that the leadership change has meant big gains for Labor in New South Wales but little or no gain in Victoria. However, the gain in Queensland is smaller than might have been expected. Labor is well up in the smaller states, though the samples here would have been small. The primary vote numbers can be perused on GhostWhoVotes’ Twitter feed. This data will be put to use in the next instalment of BludgerTrack, which will hopefully be posted late this evening.
UPDATE 2: Now Morgan comes to the state breakdowns party, with results from its most recent multi-mode poll (the one showing Labor well in front) showing 54.5-45.5 to Labor in New South Wales, 56.5-43.5 to Labor in Victoria, 57-43 to Labor in Queensland (!), 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia, 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in South Australia and 52-48 to Labor in Tasmania, from samples ranging from 1070 in New South Wales to 150 in Tasmania. Read all about it.
Triton
75% is high – 67% would be better. However there is still the ability for the leader to resign – which in 90% of cases would happen if there was a real problem. – especially if there is ill health etc.
No I don’t think it’s too high.
If 75% of the caucus think it’s time for generational change – then generational change it will be.
No more leadershit…that’s the objectice – and that proposal should deliver 😎
@bemused/49
Really? According to http://www.smh.com.au/business/nab-profits-jump-dividend-rises-20130509-2j8up.html
“NAB recorded a $2.92 billion profit in the latest half, an increase of 3.1 per cent on the past year. Helped by solid growth in its personal lending business, NAB also raised its interim dividend by 3c to 93c a share.”
So it’s just pure greed? Perhaps we need a BRRT Bank Resource Rent Tax?
Priceless!
Lou Pardi @loupardi 9m
RT @theshezbot: RT @mswolly: I once inadvertently ordered $9000 worth of travel instead of a Supreme Pizza #CalmDownBridie #BattleRort…
I actually I would seriously like to see no PM attempting to win more than three (3) elections 😎
I think Sean’s unhinging could be more fascinating than Abbott’s.
zoidlord
Stick to something you know what you’re talking about!
NAB’s profit is tiny compared to other big financial institutions in the world.
Ohh Greens thinking…they make by back shiver!
Really, if even 50% of caucus doesn’t like the leader enough not to want to force him or her out, with all that this implies for the standing of the party in the public imagination, then the leader should probably spill him/herself. That’s essentially what Gillard did.
You couldn’t go on for very long with only 50% of your party supporting you so even 60% is probably conservative. Abbott didn’t get 60% of his ‘caucus’ supporting him.
Bemused
As per mining and many others, 457 visas.
They advertise online and will only accept online applications.
How many do you think they actually look at?
They have fulfilled the requirement to advertise the position locally.
slackboy72 @ 56
When Sean switches to shouting at us IN CAPITALS, we’ll know the men in straight jackets won’t be far away …
Spot on piece from the Shrike, as usual. http://www.pipingshrike.com/2013/07/unleashed.html
Rudd will bring on more major reform than many banked on. As I said at the time, Shorto just will be just fine, as he picked the winner. But he got with the strength in the end, not the other way around. He may have to wait some.
Howes and his ilk, OTOH….well, remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, not even News can resist puncturing the crap that the majors are carrying on with on asylum seekers: http://mobile.news.com.au/world-news/ten-myths-around-asylum-seekers-arriving-on-boats-in-australian-waters/story-fndir2ev-1226676024840
Speaking of the Greens, Adam Bandt conceded that there is enough competition in the finance sector.
When the dollar was high, we missed a golden opportunity for a Westpac/ANZ merger and to grow their business in Asia.
We should still allow it to happen 😯 😎
75% is too high. Practically impossible to reach.
60% is good.
Just a note on practical reform —
we made elections for our policy committee ‘faction free’ by forcing through a rule which defined who was eligible to vote for our committee (in our case, rural and regional Labor members) and granting each one of them a postal vote.
In these days of internet thingys which can be made secure enough for people to make purchases, it must be possible to set up electronic voting for party positions, which would allow all members a vote, rather than restricting votes to state delegates.
Voting could be restricted in some cases – Young Labor, Country Conference, Labor Women, for example – to eligible members.
Factions and unions would still have an influence – they have the money and resources, for example, to send out material to prospective voters on behalf of favoured candidates – but it would certainly be one way of giving members more direct control.
Jolly Joe Hockey, what a fool
https://twitter.com/ejgriffiths
now u can read what s being said to the abc
They don’t want Abbott, Jolly Joe.
https://twitter.com/ejgriffiths
now u can read what s being said to the abc…..
NAB, or Knob, Jolly Joe ?
The only thing the Liberals have been able to cost without it being brought into question was their “pamphlet of dreams”.
And even that I starting to think was printed using Abbott’s office expenditure.
Abbott can’t even get the paperwork right for his travel entitlements, what chance Australia’s economy???
Centre, a smart PM could probably keep over 25% pretty happy. There are enough good ministries to go around unless there’s a whopping majority, but in that case there is not likely to be a problem anyway. Increasing the size of Cabinet could keep a few extra ones on-side too. Of course, when faced with oblivion at an election, ministers will act eventually, but maybe not till it’s too late (notwithstanding that caucus’s acting late has not hurt Rudd so far).
my say
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 2:06 pm | Permalink
https://twitter.com/ejgriffiths
now u can read what s being said to the abc…..
—————————————————-
What a crock Abbott is spouting now. Nothing to do with Rudd, it was social media. Twitter #battlerort
Dee@59
I hope the recent amendments to the legislation, properly enforced will make a difference.
[48….Centre]
Yeah, WBC are more bullish than most. Citi also. But others – NAB, ANZ, GS, AMP – are doubtful. It all depends on net exports. The domestic economy is already recessed. If exports falter there will be a recession. In any case, the banks have every reason to talk their book, which what Gail Kelly was doing.
For a more data-driven view of the economy, have a read through the NAB survey linked at macrobusiness.
On the question of banks, the thing that stands out in their income statements is that they are seeing almost no profit growth from lending. Their profit growth has been derived from extra fees and charges. This is a sign of debt markets that are saturated. Households don’t want to borrow, because their incomes have ceased growing. Real per capita GDP has barely moved for 7 years, which shows up as retarded demand for credit.
By the way, the last time we exchanged views, you were evincing confidence in the AUD. It was about USD 105 cents at the time (now at 0.91, on the way to a sub 0.70 number) and declared that China would keep us afloat. Forecasts for the China economy continue to be downgraded, the optimists down to about 7%, the realists to less than 4%.
While you’re at it, have a look at the ANZ job ad series, now in a clear downtrend and foretelling a rise in unemployment to levels above 6%, an outcome that is consistent with non-existent growth in real wages and ebbing total labour demand. You might also like to ask yourself how come fiscal revenue is so weak. This is emanating from slack direct tax receipts – that is, taxes on personal and business incomes are not growing at their trend rates. Why is this?
As the tide goes in and out so does Sean’s liking for polls.
All cock-a-hoop when Abbott was miles in front, now the pollsters are part of a Labor conspiracy…what a twit
Yes I have given the matter more thought 😀
No PM should attempt to win more than three (3) elections.
Hawke would have passed up to Keating and even on the other side, Howard would have passed up to Cossie…all lovey dovey 😆
Of course in the US no president can serve for more than two terms (8 years).
Seriously, it’s something we should look at 😎
This article by a former Rudd staffer makes an interesting comtrast to those who have described the real Kevin Rudd as a psychopath.
[In his second prime ministership, Rudd’s character has been seized on as an issue.
The Coalition has credible witnesses to bolster its attacks; the spliced words spoken by Labor ministers early last year.
Who could be more credible than politicians who knew him and worked with him? How about someone who knew him but doesn’t have a political axe to grind?]
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/listening-caring-rudd-has-always-been-here-to-help-20130708-2pm8u.html#ixzz2YW9Qw8Wj
I find it remarkable how few former Rudd staffers (i.e. zero) have dumped on him since leaving his employ, even while he was a backbencher with no risk of a comeback. I think we have a new definition of a psychopath: anyone who does not accept rule by the ALP factions.
Seriously, in my experience Rudd was a control freak, ambitious, and could be ruthless when annoyed. But he was not evil, and was very intelligent. I suspect it was mainly for the latter that many union background peole in Labor resented him. He was not part of their tribe.
zoomster@64
It certainly is and there are companies that specialise in running such elections.
Give them your voters roll, tell them the rules for counting votes, dates for closure of nominations, ballot etc. and wait for the results.
Various organisations I am a member of use them.
Stuff ups from this government:
1. Opened the flood gates to the people smugglers and boatpeople
2. Live cattle ban to Indonesia destroying the livelihoods of hundreds of outback families and related industries
3. Promised no Carbon tax if we voted for them, introduced a Carbon Tax anyway
4. Promised on over 50 separate occasions to deliver a budget surplus, delivered a $19 Billion Dollar deficit instead.
5. Union/Labor corruption from hand shandies at the HSU, to dodgy coal mine deals in the hunter valley.
6. Destroyed Australia’s trust in the parliament and politics in general.
Australians have had enough
No one’s listening Sean
We all love Ruddy.
I see that Tony Abbott put one of those uppity female journalists in their place this morning, after she had the temerity to question his expense claims. So, Tones, invigorated by this exercise of extra levels of testosterone, has decided to go on the road again with his Battlelines Tour, headlined by his rendition of the old Eric Clapton classic, “Lay down Sally”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baWMspf1xVc
:- )
There is nothing that is wrong
In wanting you to play along with me
But you’ve got a long way to go
So won’t you make yourself at home and sing in key?
Guided democracy!
:- )
Calm down, Bridie, and marvel at my charms
Don’t you know who it is you’re talkin’ to?
Calm down, Bridie, or you’ll need to leave so soon
You’re very tryin’, an’ you shouldda brought your ironin’ with you
:- )
The sun ain’t nearly on the rise
And we still got the boats and the tax to stop
So I’ll cut you chooks down to size
Spin is all that matters. Are you hearin’ me?
Guided democracy!
:- )
Calm down, Bridie, and marvel at my charms
Don’t you know who it is you’re talkin’ to?
Calm down, Bridie, or you’ll need to leave so soon
You’re very tryin’, an’ you shouldda brought your ironin’ with you
:- )
I long to see these pressers end
When I can walk out effortlessly
So don’t you go ask me questions
Ones that I can’t sloganize easily
Oh Bridie please…
:- )
So, calm down, Bridie, and marvel at my charms
Don’t you know who it is you’re talkin’ to?
Yeah, calm down, Bridie, or you’ll need to leave so soon
You’re very tryin’, an’ you shouldda brought your ironin’ with you
Briefly
I made my views crystal clear that the AUD would fall WELL before you PAL, so I ask you to correct your post.
So don’t be an arse hole in addition to a pretender and DON’T verbal me!
@Sean Tisme/79
Me has happy face to see your unhingement.
Especially “trust” line.
Rudd’s problem was not so much being a real bastard at times, it was the paralysis of government he allowed to occur under his first tenure.
You can get away with a lot if you deliver the basic goods.
Newsltd/Abbott coalition look shot to pieces
Socrates
It is well known that a youthful and generally worshipful PMO’s office adored Rudd. They were generally wet-behind-the-ears and intensely loyal. Bearing in mind that Rudd spent months avoiding all discussion with the Secretary of PM&C, had not talked with at least one senior cabinet minister for over a year, Rudd’s PMO acolytes had, in some cases, more real power than senior cabinet ministers. They are generally seen as having been part of the First Ruddan Empire’s chronically disabling problems with decision making.
This did not apply to all PMO staff, of course. In the current Great Amnesia Whitewash everyone has forgotten the constant stream of PMO staffers who could not bear working with Rudd. Having heard some of the stories, were some of them were to write about their experiences, IMHO it would make what senior Labor cabinet ministers have been prepared to say about Rudd in public seem very tame indeed.
It is notable that in the Second Ruddan Empire there are at least some PMO staff who are experienced and would be able, at least in principle, to meet him head-on if required. This was entirely lacking in the first Ruddan Empire.
Tasmania to sign up on Education Funding this arvo.
@GuardianAus: Video: Faced with questions over #battlerort, Tony Abbott tells @bkjabour to ‘calm down’ http://t.co/hhmbkEeV7U #calmdownbridie
Briefly
You are clearly on record as saying that the Australian economy will record two consecutive quarters of negative growth within the next 12 months I seem to recall.
I think 75% being “too high” is the point. The only way for them to be forced out is if they pull a Nixon, and really that’s the only situation where it should be OK to force them out.
[Tasmania to sign up on Education Funding this arvo]
They’d be crazy not to.
Zoomster
Reforms seem sensible.
I think a LOT of ALP policy could be managed by plebiciste these days
At least Abbott has good re-employment prospects. He can gut a fish, use a powertool, sell pies, and drive a truck while unlicensed so to do. He could re-write Jeremiah.
But really, there is one job that seems to be tailor made for Abbott: Stop/Slow Man.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 1m
Apparently there’s not a single Minister in the Qld government that realised they were getting an increase larger than a backbenchers
wow, talk about ignorance?
Karl
‘I think 75% being “too high” is the point.’
It certainly is the point from Rudd’s perspective. He means to put himself in a situation where Labor is stuck with him for as long as it suits him.
Very interesting contrast to the spin generated here and elsewhere.
As Socrates said it’s interesting that nobody who worked for him has ever joined in the criticism, and I saw many in tears when he was overthrown.
‘So often, I witnessed the unreported Rudd. That included one of his many meetings with unemployed middle-aged men around the country seeking job guidance from a certain charity. They were often surprised to find themselves sitting in a room alone with the former PM, who could reassure them first-hand that only a lucky few go through life without losing their job.
Time and distance allow me to share an authentic perspective – some reassurance to the public who have never lost the belief that he is a good man who is at the top to help those who have always been far removed from the commanding heights.’
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/comment/listening-caring-rudd-has-always-been-here-to-help-20130708-2pm8u.html#ixzz2YWG4R3YL
Sean Tisme
Posted Tuesday, July 9, 2013 at 2:19 pm | Permalink
Stuff ups from this government:
———————————————————-
I’ll see your “stuff-ups” and raise you;
Triple A credit rating from all 3 agencies
Low inflation
Low unemployment
Low official interest rates
Continual growth every quarter
Carbon price introduced
Disability Care
Murray-Darling agreement
One of lowest GDP to debt ratio in the world
More doctors
more spent on infrastructure than under Howard
Successfully lead Australia through the GFC
Yes mistakes have been made.
The only way not to make a mistake is to do nothing and I succeeded..I think that was a John Howard quote in relation to his PMship
[Of course in the US no president can serve for more than two terms (8 years).]
The president also has to win the primary, even if they’re the incumbent running for re-election they have to be supported by their party’s convention first.
Boats boats boats
Turn the back…USA has had a “turn the back” in one form or another policy since the 1950’s
And still the boats come…..after over 50 years of “turn the boats back”
It is a nonsense policy from a bunch of tired old left overs from Howard’s front bench. Unemployable anyway else they just keep hanging on
My guess is Newman has read the riot act to the Acting Premier. Greg Carey hinted at this earlier today.