A second Newspoll in consecutive weeks has the parties at 50-50, shifting a point in Labor’s direction on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the leadership change. Most encouragingly for Labor, they are up three points on the primary vote to 38%, although this is mostly down to a two point drop for the Greens which returns them to the 9% they were on in the last poll under Julia Gillard. The Coalition is down a point to 42%. After a rather mediocre showing the first time around, Kevin Rudd is up seven on approval to 43% and steady on disapproval at 36%, while Tony Abbott is unchanged at 35% and 56%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has opened up from 49-35 to 53-31. A question on election timing reflects Essential Research in finding a preference for sooner rather than later, although 41% were happy to sign on to the option of not having a preference.
Full tables here courtesty of GhostWhoVotes. Apologies for my tardiness in relating all this – I was a victim of the power blackout which struck Melbourne’s hipster belt last night.
UPDATE (11/7): Newspoll has pleasingly provided state-by-state breakdowns combining this week’s and last week’s polling, and while only primary votes are provided, applying 2010 preference flows to them and rounding to the nearest half a point gives results of 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in New South Wales; 51-49 to Labor in Victoria; 54.5-45.5 to the Coalition in Queensland; 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia; and 51.5-48.5 to Labor in South Australia. This supports the impression from the state breakdowns in the BludgerTrack sidebar, which were calculated off a weak base of data, that the leadership change has meant big gains for Labor in New South Wales but little or no gain in Victoria. However, the gain in Queensland is smaller than might have been expected. Labor is well up in the smaller states, though the samples here would have been small. The primary vote numbers can be perused on GhostWhoVotes’ Twitter feed. This data will be put to use in the next instalment of BludgerTrack, which will hopefully be posted late this evening.
UPDATE 2: Now Morgan comes to the state breakdowns party, with results from its most recent multi-mode poll (the one showing Labor well in front) showing 54.5-45.5 to Labor in New South Wales, 56.5-43.5 to Labor in Victoria, 57-43 to Labor in Queensland (!), 56-44 to the Coalition in Western Australia, 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition in South Australia and 52-48 to Labor in Tasmania, from samples ranging from 1070 in New South Wales to 150 in Tasmania. Read all about it.
Boerwar, you do realise that you are just passing on third hand gossip, supposition and innuendo based on your own craven prejudices.
This against someone who worked for the man.
I know who I believe.
Just saw the clip of Mr Abbott demanding the female to calm down and also noticed the pie spokesman next to him smirking with delight at Mr Abbotts powerplay over the female.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4598894.html
‘James Button, a gentle and highly experienced journalist, who briefly worked as Rudd’s speechwriter and then later with public servants who worked for Rudd, wrote:
The truth is, Rudd was impossible to work with. He regularly treated his staff, public servants and backbenchers with rudeness and contempt. He was vindictive, intervening to deny people appointments or preselections, often based on grudges that went back years.’
Getting official now
Another screw in LNP reelection chances.
Good on Mr Shorten and PMKR for continuing Julia Gillard legacy
Try as he may to hide it, Mr Abbotts 19th century behavioral instincts continue to be on show.
The US Coast Guard has a budget of close to $10 billion annually.
And still the refugee boats come and still the drug smugglers succeed in getting their product into the USA.
So, we hear both good and bad stories about Rudd. Those people who believe in Rudd take the good, dismiss the bad and then claim their p.o.v. is proven.
[‘So often, I witnessed the unreported Rudd. That included one of his many meetings with unemployed middle-aged men around the country seeking job guidance from a certain charity. …. ]
Prepare yourselves for tomorrow’s attack piece from a former member of Rudd’s staff. That’s the way The Age plays the game.
Zoidlord
[Apparently there’s not a single Minister in the Qld government that realised they were getting an increase larger than a backbenchers]
Interesting indeed. Are they saying that even the Qld treasurer was “not aware” of changes in MP pay that must have increased the budget for parliamentary costs by at least $10 million this year? Why not? Does he even read his own budget?
What a pathetically easily disproven lie.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1166916/Australias-prime-minister-dubbed-Kevin-Rude-makes-air-stewardess-meat-meal.html
‘Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd reduced a flight attendant to tears with a torrent of abuse.
Mr Rudd, known for his swearing rants, lost his temper when the 23-year-old said his special meal, with no red meat, was not available.’
Boerwar, that’s a negative story about Rudd, and so should be considered baseless, gossip, innuendo and speculation by someone who was probably incompetent and jealous too.
guytaur
[Getting official now
Another screw in LNP reelection chances.]
What’s the context?
Centre
[Of course in the US no president can serve for more than two terms (8 years).]
I don’t know why they’d want to lock themselves out of electing a president for more than two terms. Anyone who stands for a third term can always be voted out. Just leave it to voters at each election if the president has run his race.
I don’t know how this limit came about, but I imagine that the Republicans were heartily sick of FDR after he’d won a fourth election.
Here is your real, unvarnished Prime Minister:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVEaHcyMesQ
It would be fantastic if the Victorian Govt signs on to the education funding reforms next week before the next Newspoll.
A guaranteed poll boost mark my words !
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2013/jul/09/tony-abbott-calm-down-video
After watching the full video on the Guardian, it does seem like she’s hyper-ventilating a bit the way she rattles off the questions there.
Tony Abbott has rustled up twitter outrage with his “Calm Down Bridie” gaffe. And for Bridie Jabour, instant credibility and name recognition.
The coming election campaign will be a platform for every budding new Laurie Oakes or Michelle Grattan to make their name by getting Tony Abbott to say something ignorant, sexist or stupid.
“at each election to decide if the president has run his race”
Tom
Sorry. my link went missing. I did put in the post I promise.
“@abcnews: The ABC understands the Government has reached an agreement with Tasmania on school funding. http://t.co/8pLhrIZS50 #gonski”
BW
Please stop citing James Button
He wrote one speech for Rudd. Rudd thought it was crap and did not use it.
Iccle Jaime said wahhh!!!!!!. Him big blue meany.
I am brilliant. My speech was wunnerful. Mean, mean man. My daddy was a senator Wahh!!!!
Jaime Buttonl only worked for Rudd for a milisecond. He is NOT a viable witness
DisplayName@107
And vice versa.
In my case I have also met him 3 times and formed an opinion based on those encounters.
[89
Centre
Briefly
You are clearly on record as saying that the Australian economy will record two consecutive quarters of negative growth within the next 12 months I seem to recall.]
I haven’t made this prediction, and, since I don’t think that’s a useful definition of a recession, not one that I would be likely to make. Nonetheless, I think there is an elevated risk of recession. This is driven by deceleration in income growth that has been showing up in very feeble demand for credit and now-negative growth in labor demand. A feature of this is the fiscal situation, which clearly shows it is no longer possible to run the economy at around full employment while also maintaining fiscal balance.
I’ve been saying for months that the economy is vulnerable. I still think the risks are to the downside. Nominal growth is very weak – at levels usually only ever associated with recession. And the domestic economy is reflecting this. The national accounts show just how weak the domestic economy has become.
For the record, I have no recollection of you predicting a fall in the AUD (not that I hang on your every utterance, you understand) but quite clearly recall you insisting that China would keep it strong. It is now quite evident that China’s economy is slowing very quickly and that the composition of growth is also changing.
Finally, take comfort. I have no interest in “verballing” you. You do a fine job of this without my help.
Take comfort, your
Yes Boerwar, Rudd was/is no angel, but he is not the pantomime villain of your fevered imagination either.
Real life has nuances never dreamed of in your imagined version of reality.
@John64/116
She could have “hyperventilation syndrome”, so I wouldn’t go in that direction if I were you.
tas was always going to it was said during budget
time some weeks ago
Ta guytaur
Boerwar:
[ The truth is, Rudd was impossible to work with. He regularly treated his staff, public servants and backbenchers with rudeness and contempt. He was vindictive, intervening to deny people appointments or preselections, often based on grudges that went back years.’]
All this may be true. And worse. I don’t care. What I care about is how Rudd governs the country, and how he improves Labor’s chances of sticking it to Abbott &co. Yep, I’m shallow. He’s Prime Minister, not Pope.
As mentioned before, Bill Clinton was notoriously difficult to work for (and with). He had a short fuse and a rotten temper, and could reduce staff to tears.
George W. Bush was apparently down-to-earth and easy to get along with.
Yet, in history’s judgement, who was the better US President?
http://www.news.com.au/national-news/more-than-260-staff-have-walked-out-on-kevin-rudd-in-two-years/story-e6frfkw9-1225853859546
The Prime Minister himself has lost 28 staff, with Government insiders describing his office as resembling a “transit lounge”.
“So if folks stay with me for three or four years, that’s probably 28 or 30 years or more in actual time.”
Some former staff are privately seething at his management style, claiming he can fly off the handle at a moment’s notice.
And Boerwar, while I understand that you get off on calling people ‘mentally ill’ with zero evidence, are you going to have the decency to retract that statement?
[ Some former staff are privately seething at his management style, claiming he can fly off the handle at a moment’s notice.]
And? So?
bw
The results matter not the motives.
@ABCthedrum: Under Kevin Rudd’s direct election plan, Labor’s faceless men are replaced by people power, writes Joff Lelliott http://t.co/e8KAwRgoXU
To those saying that 75% is too high, the number could easily be negotiated down and probably will. The point is to have it so a PM can’t just be deposed because of a few bad polls or some factional figures getting shitty because they were overlooked for promotion.
The other part about giving regular party members a say is an important one and would put the party in line with most parliamentary political parties around the world.
A PM who is widely opposed by their party would likely step down anyway and, if not, the mass resignations from the ministry would make their leadership harder.
From Briefly
1. WBC, ANZ and AMP are bullish.
2. It all depends on net exports.
3. The domestic economy is already recessed.
4. Banks talk up their book.
5. Banks not growing from lending/all fees charged.
6. Households do not want to borrow.
7. Unemployment to rise.
8. No wages growth.
You right a couple of sentences on the above and try to pass yourself as an expert.
Tell you what, when we hit the recession we are to experience as you claim – then I will engage with you.
I actually find your posts amateurish and boring to be honest.
No he’s quoting News Ltd as a reliable source. Desperate times for a hater extraordinaire.
Rudd must recall Parliament immediately if he will not name an election date!
He is scared of Abbott
@Boerwar/128
I see private companies churn-through lots more staff than “28” people.
If you stay in the past, you will always stay in the past.
The “Calm Down” stuff is really nothing, it is the journos response in congratulating Bridie Jabour that is interesting.
Fairfax, News, ABC have all tweeted her in support. Abbott lost more credibility with the media he needs to keep him afloat. This is the something.
Sean
Your comedy is getting better. Keep it up you may get to professional stand up yet. 🙂
bemused@121
I don’t know whether other people take all good or all bad, but in my case, the good and bad stories don’t necessarily conflict. He got along well with some people and didn’t with others. Some things he did well and others he didn’t.
The question of whether the good disproves the bad may be the wrong question. The question is what was good and what was bad and are they in conflict. From what I can tell, a rough summation goes:
Relationships with subordinates – mostly good
Relationships with colleagues – mostly bad
Relationship with party – mostly bad
Relationship with voters – mostly good
It appears to me the good and bad stories refer to different facets and can’t automatically be taken as evidence for or against each other along one dimension. So statements of “aha, I’ve found a good story, all your bad stories must be wrong” are not obviously rational or logical.
[Rudd must recall Parliament immediately if he will not name an election date!]
Why, Parliament is due to resume in August.
Centre, it’s just as well I’m not intent on addressing you. But if you are going to quote me, try for accuracy. It is a useful trait to have. You should focus on what others actually say, rather than what you suppose they’re saying. In this way, you may avoid leaping to false conclusions.
[Tell you what, when we hit the recession we are to experience as you claim – then I will engage with you.]
Yet another reason to hope we avoid recession.
[As mentioned before, Bill Clinton was notoriously difficult to work for (and with). He had a short fuse and a rotten temper, and could reduce staff to tears.]
While I agree that it should not be the sole basis of which a leader is tested, Bill Clinton is clearly in the wrong in the above scenario.
Employer bullying is a problem and it doesn’t matter if you’re the manager of a shop or president of the US, if your actions are causing those under you to cry, you’re doing it wrong and maybe should back down a little bit.
@sallie6youtube: Abbott does presser at Garlo’s Pies claiming times are tough with carbon tax BUT they are advertising to hire staff?
http://t.co/D69zhkw1Sc
The reality?
Rudd routinely undermined Beasely and Latham because he wanted to become LOTO.
Once in the job he displayed a manic dedication to populism and personal popularity.
Not only was Rudd a thorough-going prick to work for (or, if you were a minister, a prick to work with), governance broke down under Rudd Mk 1. It broke down because of who is and what he is. Apart from the GFC rescue, he left to his successor the Mother of All Policy Shambles.
He was so unpopular that he did not bother contesting Gillard for leadership. Most of them simply hated him.
Rudd then leaked during an election, almost fatally wounding a Labor Government and forcing it into minority government with all the difficulties and consequences that that entailed.
He then undermined a Labor Government in public while he was Foreign Minister.
He spent three years undermining a Labor Government in order to drive down the polls so that he could pose as saviour.
Once back in the saddle, he has immediately set about establishing Labor Party ‘reforms’ that would make it virtually impossible to get rid of him, EVER.
What part of Rudd don’t you understand?
adrian,
No one died and made you moderator of PB.
g
‘bw
The results matter not the motives.’
The result is that Rudd would become irremoveable. Is that what you really want?
[Rudd must recall Parliament immediately if he will not name an election date!
He is scared of Abbott]
That’s like calling a lion scared of an antelope because it’s currently looking after the pride, rather than hunting.
@117
The coming election campaign will be a platform for every budding new Laurie Oakes or Michelle Grattan to make their name by getting Tony Abbott to say something ignorant, sexist or stupid.
How? By asking a legimate question about a serious misuse of taxpayer funds?
or by asking any question Credlin hasn’t scripted for him?
From Kevin Rudd’s biggest fan.
Now, I’m not going to get into a Rudd v Gillard stoush. We’ve had 3 years of that whinging bulldust from others on this blog and I think we all have pretty fixed opinions.
I’m for the ALP and their policies. If Rudd is the person to give us a fighting chance to preserve those policies, then so be it. I for one don’t want to see all the pain,anger and hard slog of the last three years lost to a Coalition government. Nor do I want a ratbag like Rabbott to be rewarded for the destruction of decency in Australian politics.
[MKew – who won Bennelong from John Howard in 2007 but lost the northern Sydney seat in 2010 – says while Labor’s “working families” slogan was suitable for the 2007 campaign it “should never have carried into government”.
“We bored the country witless with the repetition,” she says.
[She says Mr Rudd was “culpable as well” in his demise. “Where he needed to charm, he scolded. Instead of cultivating loyalists among backbenchers, too often he ignored them. He is a leader who makes few allowances for people who don’t share his own obsessions or can’t work to his timetable.”]
Boerwar for some the only thing that matters is winning. That it takes an ego on steroids to achieve that is just how it must be.
Winning is everything. Apparently.
Mind you it’s a toss up when the choice is between an ego on steroids and an ethical void.