Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll concurs with Galaxy’s two-party result but has both parties lower on the primary vote, with Kevin Rudd doing no more than break even with his debut personal ratings.

James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but achieves a neutral result with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.

We also have supplementary results from yesterday’s Galaxy poll courtesy of GhostWhoVotes showing Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer 38% to 20%, and 33% saying Rudd’s leadership style has improved against 43% who say it hasn’t (although that may include people who think it didn’t need to). (UPDATE: I gather from Simon Benson’s Daily Telegraph report that it was put to respondents that that some thought his style “chaotic and dysfunctional”).

UPDATE (Essential Research): GhostWhoVotes relates that Essential Research, which normally provides only a fortnightly rolling average, has published results from the most recent polling period (Thursday to Sunday) showing the primary votes at 38% for Labor (up four), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (up one), panning out to 52-48 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The normal rolling average, which in the circumstances tells us very little, moves from 55-45 to 53-47.

UPDATE 2: Bernard Keane in Crikey:

The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard’s removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor …

The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants.

Last week, Labor’s lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor’s “branding” as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant.

There’s also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): The Morgan multi-mode poll is the first pollster to actually have Labor in front, their primary vote at 39.5% (up 11% on last week) to 40.5% for the Coalition (down 10%) and 8.5% for the Greens (up half a point). This gives Labor a respondent-allocated preferences lead of 51.5-48.5, which emerges as 51-49 when using preference flows from the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  3. zoidlord – one of the more enjoyable moments of my life was downing a cold one as Howard conceded. It’d be tough to beat.

    Reckon it would take the cake though.

    We can dream.

  7. bemused, it’s true that arguments based around the sorts of numbers produced by polling are more easily structured, but politics is not any kind of science and there’s a long distance to travel between those numbers and a judgement of what’s good for a party.

  8. Does anyone really believe that Abbott got up one morning and had a ‘vision” come to him saying “challenge for the leadership” and so he did.

    Or do they believe that after saying he fully supports Turnbull and stating that Turnbull would lead the Liberals to the election, either;

    a)he sneaked around spending time speaking with the faceless men in the Liberals to garner support, or
    b) the faceless men came to him and said “sell us your soul and we will anoint you as leader of the Liberal Party”

    And so Abbott went forth and stabbed Turnbull in the back..

  9. [TP you gotta be loving it now ]

    I don’t want to be too optomistic. Keeping a Coalition victory down to a few seats would be very good result, a victory would be mind blowing because of the results it would have on the Liberals and politics.

    In 2007 and now Rudd somehow has a manner that helps stimulate the mood of the masses, creates interest…and gets people to listen to policy. (which has it draw backs as well).

    Also Rudd, I hope, would bring at least the public rhetoric back from the right. The manner of public discourse of our leaders is important, we wish to them to avoid implying that holding certain types of beliefs, feelings, bias, prejudices etc as being ok. Being national leader has a responsibility with it to lead the public ‘morality’, or at least seen to uphold one of some sort of decency.

  10. Phillip Adams ‏@PhillipAdams_1 1m
    Stupidity doesn’t explain everything about Sophie Mirabella – but it explains most things

  11. [Howard’s 07 speech was better than Lathams 04 speech ]
    Howard’s concession speech was good because he had over a year to write it (from after WorkChoices passed).

  12. DisplayName@1307

    bemused, it’s true that arguments based around the sorts of numbers produced by polling are more easily structured, but politics is not any kind of science and there’s a long distance to travel between those numbers and a judgement of what’s good for a party.

    There are a lot of strange things said about polls on here but I take them as a quantitative measure of voter sentiment at particular points in time. Taken as such, they showed the ALP in a consistently bad position over a long period of time and I could see nothing in prospect that would change this other than what has happened.

    Clearly, a leader who is less popular than a nong like Abbott has some real problems in the way she is perceived in the electorate and this was borne out by plenty of anecdotal experience and other polling questions.

    Something had to be done to make the Govt competitive and belatedly it was. Caucus should have moved much sooner.

  13. Actually gives out the impression thbat he leads a New Govt…with something new every day in the media”rather exciting and daring

  14. Women move for Rudd
    ___________
    Morgan is showing a further swing to Labor and also shows a strong showing for Rudd amongst women voters…who are better for him than they were for Gillard !!!

    Go figure as the Americans say

  16. TP

    Yes, I doubt the Rudd group can do anything on key issues before the election. It will just be policy adjustments.

    I worry about the party getting back its position as society’s leader for progressive change and as the bulwark against anti-fairness extremism, after this failed experiment though.

    The only thing that has allowed electoral hope has been the wonderful minority parliament and what was forced on the hollow wing, ironically.

  19. mod lib – did you get Bob Brown on your list? -he left after arbib, so he should be there.

    I’m beginning to like the idea of fixed terms for pollies – wouldn’t be great if they had to leave after three or four terms – with the option of coming back after a three year break. I’d also like it if pollies had to have done a job for 5-10 years before entering parliament that didn’t involve the student politics-work for a party-aligned law firm-adviser to a pollie-preselection pathway that most of them seem to take.

    William (and others) what do you think the chances of feeny being given a run for Batman by the greens are? He’ll win of course, but I think it could be close. the hipsterification of his seat, a great female Greens candidate who has run several times (Alex Bhatal) and polls about 25% of the vote, and a conservative uncharismatic turd foisted by factional bosses on one of the most progressive seats in the land (at least Mar’n was originally ‘left; faction, even if he had a very strange way of interpreting ‘left’ – he got about 52% primary at the last election, but I’d say labor might have to go to preferences for the first time in history if trends continue). He’ll win, but Feeney’s ballot stuffers could be very busy come election night. could be a good seat of the week.

  20. Watching Lateline.

    Kevin announcing all smiley for the NDIS. Jenny Macklin gets to speak.

    Whilst she spoke, clip lasted long enough for me to count Kevin pushing his lower lip against his upper, eight times.

    What the hell does that mean?

    Students of body language?

    Reminded me of Noddy shit happens.

  21. deblonay@1314

    Women move for Rudd
    ___________
    Morgan is showing a further swing to Labor and also shows a strong showing for Rudd amongst women voters…who are better for him than they were for Gillard !!!

    Go figure as the Americans say

    Simple.

    A lot of women did not like Gillard but they like Rudd.

    Seriously, it is as simple as that.

    Time this gender stuff was buried. Rudd picked 11 women for his ministry and 6 for Cabinet and he did it on merit as it should be. If those women were picked on the basis of gender it would demean their stature.

  23. I don’t gamble, but I look at the betting sites from time to time to get a view on what that the market of people who stake their money on election results thinks. Sportsbet has Liberals on 1.26 and Labor on 3.75 (was 7 or 8 a few weeks ago). The odds imply a probability of a Labor win of about 25%, which seems about right.

  24. Deblonay

    [Women move for Rudd
    ___________
    Morgan is showing a further swing to Labor and also shows a strong showing for Rudd amongst women voters…who are better for him than they were for Gillard !!!

    Go figure as the Americans say]

    Well single mums would be one group supporting Rudd over Gillard despite her impeccable credentials as a feminist icon and ceiling breaker. Shouldn’t forget where you came from.

  27. 1319

    The solution to a system leaving poorly performing people in Parliament is to make the elections more competitive on an individual MP level. The Hare-Clark system in Tasmania and the ACT seems like a god choice for that. There is no need to throw out good long-serving parliamentarians with the bad ones. Legislative term limits are also not all that compatible with the parliamentary system of government (which is why they are pretty much only found in presidential systems) because of the need to have experienced parliamentarians to serve as ministers.

    The ALP lost Batman at the 1966 election to the sitting (ex?-)ALP member who supported the Vietnam War.

  28. Re Victoria @ 1300. Yes, it appears that the poor are so lazy they would just sit on their backsides all day unless threatened with unpleasant consequences for slacking off. On the other hand the rich are so lazy that they would just stay in bed unless they were payed generously to get up. As to the wider economy, increasing executive salaries is good because otherwise the lazy so and so’s would just spend their work days asleep at their desks or checking their Facebook status. On the other hand wage and salary earners have to moderate their demands for better pay and conditions otherwise we’ll all be ‘rooned’.

    So, it’s just a matter of working out where the dividing line is ($60 kpa?, 120?) and take from those below to give to those above.

  30. Steve777

    Posted Tuesday, July 2, 2013 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Re Victoria @ 1300. Yes, it appears that the poor are so lazy they would just sit on their backsides all day unless threatened with unpleasant consequences for slacking off. On the other hand the rich are so lazy that they would just stay in bed unless they were payed generously to get up. As to the wider economy, increasing executive salaries is good because otherwise the lazy so and so’s would just spend their work days asleep at their desks or checking their Facebook status. On the other hand wage and salary earners have to moderate their demands for better pay and conditions otherwise we’ll all be ‘rooned’.

    So, it’s just a matter of working out where the dividing line is ($60 kpa?, 120?) and take from those below to give to those above.
    ———————————————————

    Holden executives took a 30% pay rise while Holden lost $150 million.

    One of many boards/CEO/executives to act this way.

    CEO and board of a major airline spent $410 million buying company shares to use as bonuses for themselves, and during that 2 year period paid no dividends to shareholders

  32. Tom the first and best@1327

    1319
    The ALP lost Batman at the 1966 election to the sitting (ex?-)ALP member who supported the Vietnam War.

    Sam Benson as I recall. I think he styled himself as “Captain Sam Benson”. No idea what sort of captain he had been.

  33. I see Lundy lost Sport. Well it is a natural for the blokes seeing as how no women in Australia play sport and there is the World Cup and things that a Sports Minister might get to go to, after all. B

    Besides Kate can join the rest of the wimmin in the Ladies Portfolios. You know,health, homelessness, mental health/ageing/wimmins affairs. A person with Lady Bits got Regional Affairs, which could be a tiny bit bucking the trend.

    hey all have something in common, they are all health and welfare based, are hard work for little thanks and high risk disaster at sometime for the hapless minister, and reflect the traditional home and hearth approach the role in government. The juicy jobs are for non-gender specific humans who wear ties, preferably blue.

    And woman are expected to be grateful! Take a long jump off a short pier, Mr KRuddPM.

    Sexism rules. But why am I not surprised.

    Is that one clay toenail I see on the foot of the divine?

  34. bemused @ 1312, my personal opinion is that particular line of reasoning is fair enough, but we’re straying from the original point, which was that while you may not agree with another’s logic (or lack of logic, from your perspective) that doesn’t mean they don’t have Labor’s interests at heart or that they support Tony Abbott.

    There must be better ways to try convince people around to your perspective that their method of supporting the ALP is mistaken than to simply fling such accusations at them.

  35. zoidlord@1329

    @Bemused/1326

    And Sport is riddled currently with scandals, need someone with a firm back to get stuff done.

    I am not persuaded that should require the detailed attention of a Federal Minister.

    We do have ASDA and various police forces to deal with such matters.

  36. Great fun to watch Tanya running rings around Mirabella on Q & A tonight – especially the part where Sofie was busy explaining why the Libs knocked back the Malaysia plan. She had just got to the part about their alleged concern about the fact that Malaysia was not a signatory to the convention when Tanya laughingly interrupted and said – “Oh Sofie, what would you care about that?” The audience cracked up and so did I. That was when Sofie told Tanya not to be nasty, which brought even more laughter. Game, set and match to Tanya.

  40. Darn #1336

    Libs didn’t care that Nauru wasn’t a signatory.

    June 2011 before they signed the Convention but Libs happy to have a detention centre there from 2001 and to keep ranting it should be re-opened.

  41. Display Name
    Not this one, the sun shines out of his aske and bounces off his golden feet, didn’t anyone tell you?

  43. JV

    Soiling your point as ever with your absurd extremes.

    ‘Despite her impeccable credentials as a feminist icon and ceiling breaker’

    ‘Shouldn’t forget where you came from’.

    End of stupidity.

    ‘Well single mums would be one group supporting Rudd over Gillard’

    I agree, single parents would be. It was not only politically foolish, it was harsh and unnecessary.

    I could forgive it if Newstart (laughable name) was in any way equitable, but it is not.

  44. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1333

    I see Lundy lost Sport. Well it is a natural for the blokes seeing as how no women in Australia play sport and there is the World Cup and things that a Sports Minister might get to go to, after all. B

    Besides Kate can join the rest of the wimmin in the Ladies Portfolios. You know,health, homelessness, mental health/ageing/wimmins affairs. A person with Lady Bits got Regional Affairs, which could be a tiny bit bucking the trend.

    hey all have something in common, they are all health and welfare based, are hard work for little thanks and high risk disaster at sometime for the hapless minister, and reflect the traditional home and hearth approach the role in government. The juicy jobs are for non-gender specific humans who wear ties, preferably blue.

    And woman are expected to be grateful! Take a long jump off a short pier, Mr KRuddPM.

    Sexism rules. But why am I not surprised.

    Is that one clay toenail I see on the foot of the divine?

    Calm down Puffy, there was nothing about gender in my post.

    I just happen not to think sport is deserving of a senior Minister. Even more bizarre is the existence of ‘Racing Ministers’ in some states.

    I regard Kate Lundy’s new responsibilities as more important than sport.

    And for the record, I probably watch about the same amount of women’s sport as men’s on TV. The Australia v NZ women’s soccer was very good to watch and a high standard.

    I also used to go and watch my grand-daughter play netball.

    Get over all this crap Puffy.

  45. I do not support Abbott.

    I hope Abbott loses and we get an independent in Griffith, preferably the Sex Party.

  47. DisplayName@1334

    bemused @ 1312, my personal opinion is that particular line of reasoning is fair enough, but we’re straying from the original point, which was that while you may not agree with another’s logic (or lack of logic, from your perspective) that doesn’t mean they don’t have Labor’s interests at heart or that they support Tony Abbott.

    There must be better ways to try convince people around to your perspective that their method of supporting the ALP is mistaken than to simply fling such accusations at them.

    Rational people yes. confessions? No hope.

  48. How about we leave the single mums where they were and raise Newstart? Now THAT would have been more equitable and Rudd would have shown some courage. What about the kids in families where both parents are unemployed? I suppose they can eat soursobs can’t they?

  49. 1345

    I hope the Greens win Griffith, Warringah and many others. Unfortunately I do not think they are in with any chance outside a few inner-city seats.

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