James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but achieves a neutral result with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.
We also have supplementary results from yesterday’s Galaxy poll courtesy of GhostWhoVotes showing Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer 38% to 20%, and 33% saying Rudd’s leadership style has improved against 43% who say it hasn’t (although that may include people who think it didn’t need to). (UPDATE: I gather from Simon Benson’s Daily Telegraph report that it was put to respondents that that some thought his style “chaotic and dysfunctional”).
UPDATE (Essential Research): GhostWhoVotes relates that Essential Research, which normally provides only a fortnightly rolling average, has published results from the most recent polling period (Thursday to Sunday) showing the primary votes at 38% for Labor (up four), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (up one), panning out to 52-48 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The normal rolling average, which in the circumstances tells us very little, moves from 55-45 to 53-47.
UPDATE 2: Bernard Keane in Crikey:
The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard’s removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor …
The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants.
Last week, Labor’s lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor’s “branding” as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant.
There’s also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): The Morgan multi-mode poll is the first pollster to actually have Labor in front, their primary vote at 39.5% (up 11% on last week) to 40.5% for the Coalition (down 10%) and 8.5% for the Greens (up half a point). This gives Labor a respondent-allocated preferences lead of 51.5-48.5, which emerges as 51-49 when using preference flows from the previous election.
Is there a new requirement that Labor Agriculture Ministers are about as dumb as the LNP ones.
time for brandy this week after champagne last
Ozpol @ 1511 last thread 😉
I mean based on poll numbers. 50-50? 51-49 Labor’s way? 52? 53? Or possibly some other set of numbers (perhaps including time)?
The Daily TolietPaper back to bagging the ALP, leading with that bullshit Galaxy question about has Rudd changed?
[But overall, 43 per cent of all voters don’t believe he has transformed from the “chaotic and dysfunctional” days of his past leadership which ended on June 24, 2010.
A quarter of all voters were prepared to wait to judge the former PM, with 24 per cent yet to make up their mind on the resurrected prime minister and whether he had reformed.
When Coalition supporters are included, 42 per cent of all voters claimed they don’t believe Mr Rudd has changed, with 33 per cent giving him the benefit of the doubt.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/galaxy-daily-telegraph-poll-reveals-voters-dont-believe-kevin-rudd-has-changed-since-first-stint-as-pm/story-fni0xqrc-1226672232561
is noone awake? this is only beginning. already level. watch this space as they say … the public not fully caught on yet
Differences in PV as against the other polls just MOE..more green less ALP etc…
But the current position pretty certain to be 49/51 no?
That is an incredible result given a few days a go many MPs were wondering if they could find a job somewhere, and people were fretting over Abbott senate control.
This isn’t 2007 and Labor have left it very late for Rudd, the Rudd effect though still there must fade as time passes, and people got more and more pissed with Labor not changing.
Rudd: Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied 36
Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56
PPM Rudd 49, Abbott 35
To me that shows the Rudd effect is lower than it would have been maybe a year ago and 2007.
Getting that extra 1-2% is going to be some hard Rudd-bot work.
Also the state breakdowns will be most interesting..
William – you have improved the start of the thread immensely by deleting a few non-events.
35 is a bit low on the primary vote, but washes out to a 51-49 2pp same as Galaxy. Greens almost back to last election numbers, so much for that demise I keep hearing about!
I actually think, at least in the short term, Labor’s numbers may continue to improve. Rudd will control the agenda again this week, with the new cabinet announcement, closely followed by his Indonesia trip. If he can get something firm from that trip, I would not be surprised to see Labor edge ahead in two weeks time.
[with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.]
Note that Rudd’s approval and disapproval add up to 72%, so there is 28% undecided he can win over if he is up to it. But Abbott’s approval and disapproval add up to 91% – the electorate has made up its mind about him, and has polarised against him.
News.com.au frontpage-
Not buying Rudd’s a changed man: poll
Coalition warns of triple whammy $545 tax increase
Just brilliant.
matt31
I agree. As always watch the trend. We just need a few polls to have a trend. Starting point looking good taking SMS Morgan Reachtel Galaxy and Newspoll together
[Greens almost back to last election numbers, so much for that demise I keep hearing about! ]
That represents Labor women, mainly in Vic and SA, angry at Gillard being dumped. We’ve heard from a lot of them in Melb Ports, a very Gillardish area. But they’ll come back if Rudd performs well. He’s well advised to promote lots of women.
Further to my earlier comment about Agriculture Ministers- LNP typically seem to produce non-event Ministers. Primary producers and others dependent of agricultural sector look to Labor to produce some new thinking.
Really Joe Ludwig and Joel Fitzgibbon have to be lowering expectations to somewhere near zero.
guytaur, probably need a few months for a trend.
[News.com.au frontpage-
Not buying Rudd’s a changed man: poll
Coalition warns of triple whammy $545 tax increase
Just brilliant.]
Rudd has always got his appeal through tv I believe talking over the newsprint, and as PM they have to cover him if he is doing the nations work.
Like I said I think there is only a small window of time for when the public are paying attention to Rudd Labor so they have to a hell of lot of selling in that time.
I think a August 24 Poll is the go with a five week campaign.
paine
do you think they should go to election quickly?
A week ago i was taking anti-depressants now i am taking happy pills ha ha…
Fitzgibbon is very lucky to be Minister for Anything. But I am full of generosity tonight.
Labor plus Greens at 45% plus represents a solid position to ensure Senate composition for centre-left is similar to current – unless of course some clever Labor strategists manage to think that LNP, Fred Nile, Shooters, DLP, PUP or KAP will be a better bet.
Someone here said today that Murdoch conspired to get rid of Gillard? Yep, so have the headlines changed?
Psephos
Maybe Fitzgibbon’s experience in animal husbandry will come in hand
@marky marky/21
I always thought that Coalition Party were more aligned with Murdoch.
Depend on what agenda items they have. They would space them out to maintain positive exposure.. tomorrow the cabinet makeup, next ets decision, Indonesia trip and policy statement on boat persons…..
Only Rudd knows his agenda and strategy…and I don’t think there would be anybody better to know what time to choose than him.
marky
sounds goods
The problem with rewarding Fitzgibbon is that it sends a clear message that Rudd is captive to supporting his mates/factional allies etc. What possible justification is there.
The net approval/dissaprovall will imp with some policy direction changes. Just a few will do the trick. You get to +10 and you donn on the teflon jacket
[The problem with rewarding Fitzgibbon is that it sends a clear message that Rudd is captive to supporting his mates/factional allies etc. ]
What party leader is not?
Goodnight
The only thing i am thinking is that he had to reward because experienced soles were hard to find… otherwise i agree with you Wakefield but all leaders do it except when Howard and Peacock were their and they were deputy and opp leader…
guytaur
it is
Psephos, Rudd is the anti-politician, haven’t you heard?
Night must take those happy pills…
With the approval disapproval…how many unhappy Gillard supporters in their, likewise the change in management style question? A meaningful amount that skews the figures?
Previous polls would have predicted a better figure so I am wondering if something else is at work there.
a war criminal expressing disgust at rudd. what has world come to.
Psephos – one of the problems with PM Gillard was that she had several Ministers who were supporters but dead weight in terms of winning public support. Its one of the reasons the Rudd backers kept at it – because it is an obvious rallying point for internal oppositionists.
All governments have ministers who are deadwood but who have to be kept on for various political reasons.
[Note that Rudd’s approval and disapproval add up to 72%, so there is 28% undecided he can win over if he is up to it. But Abbott’s approval and disapproval add up to 91% – the electorate has made up its mind about him, and has polarised against him.]
And now Gillard is gone, people are going to start scrutinising what Abbott says and does a lot more which could shift even more support Labor’s way as people decide that the less risky option is to just support Labor/Rudd rather than Abbott who comes across as erratic.
@ShowsOn/38
Yes, but as @TP quiet rightly points out, those last couple of votes will be hard to work over.
if abbot had a bone of ethical integrity (which he barely has) he would distance himself from that international criminal howard. it is to ‘eternal’ shame of catholic church that it associates with this militarist cabal. the fact that howard cannot self critique, parades around pompously with pride while dozens are killed daily as a result of military action he not only sanctioned but directly enabled, quite against the wishes of the people he claimed to represent, means that the only pathological person in the landscape this week is not in the labor party. the labor war has finished – let the real battle begin
I’m not against Fitzgibbon being given a job as chief water carrier or whatever but making him (and Ludwig) Minister for Agriculture is a huge free hit for LNP in the country.
rudd’s vote will grow – he is teflon, people like the underdog and it will grow whatever news or opposition try to throw – they would be well advised to moderate
people are desperate for a choice, and resent negativity – i am also veerrrryyy tired of smart arsed amc especially political satire if that is what it is called. smug, undergraduate humour – there’s a new political comedy apparently, and adam hills better just shut up a bit on politics – all out of their depth. we need a bit of gravitas in next weeks
o noone here. i’ll save comments to another time. feeling refreshed down that guns aiming at enemy who is within reach
I’d also point out that if Rudd is going to go for an August election, these ministers aren’t actually going to do anything, because we’ll be going into caretaker mode in a few weeks. So this is a Potemkin cabinet. It will only become real if Rudd goes for a late election and Parliament comes back in August.
Oh dear, Liberals in Sweden taxing Gaming LAN Parties now:
http://www.friatider.se/lan-party-tax-hits-swedish-gamers
“The ruling was made by the Gambling Board, the supervisory authority for gambling and lottery, in accordance with the liberal government’s revised slot machine regulation of last year.”
This is peak Rudd… can’t believe people will ignore all Labors failings for the last 6 years just to vote this douche blast
Psephos
interesting analogy – Potemkin
bit severe? based on discussions here last week isn’t there some constitutional requirement? good warm up anyway for main act
sean
yes they will. ain’t public opinion a strange irrational thing but there are repressed maybe collective psychoanalyic things going on in memories of last 6 years and they aren’t quite what you think
Rudds first press conference was a little more serious than I anticipated and his focusing on Abbott’s towing the boats policy..I think he pretty much has a plan to put the blow torch to Abbott as much as possible, and stop him squirming away from the camera.
He has offered him high level briefings on the boat people issue, invited him to the G20 meeting, challenged him to a debate on debt and deficit…and more to come no doubt… AND if Abbott refuses these then Rudd can say how can Abbott challenge Labor on these issues when he refuses to attend one of the most important economic meetings of the year etc etc…