Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition

Newspoll concurs with Galaxy’s two-party result but has both parties lower on the primary vote, with Kevin Rudd doing no more than break even with his debut personal ratings.

James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but achieves a neutral result with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.

We also have supplementary results from yesterday’s Galaxy poll courtesy of GhostWhoVotes showing Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer 38% to 20%, and 33% saying Rudd’s leadership style has improved against 43% who say it hasn’t (although that may include people who think it didn’t need to). (UPDATE: I gather from Simon Benson’s Daily Telegraph report that it was put to respondents that that some thought his style “chaotic and dysfunctional”).

UPDATE (Essential Research): GhostWhoVotes relates that Essential Research, which normally provides only a fortnightly rolling average, has published results from the most recent polling period (Thursday to Sunday) showing the primary votes at 38% for Labor (up four), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (up one), panning out to 52-48 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The normal rolling average, which in the circumstances tells us very little, moves from 55-45 to 53-47.

UPDATE 2: Bernard Keane in Crikey:

The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard’s removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor …

The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants.

Last week, Labor’s lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor’s “branding” as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant.

There’s also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): The Morgan multi-mode poll is the first pollster to actually have Labor in front, their primary vote at 39.5% (up 11% on last week) to 40.5% for the Coalition (down 10%) and 8.5% for the Greens (up half a point). This gives Labor a respondent-allocated preferences lead of 51.5-48.5, which emerges as 51-49 when using preference flows from the previous election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,379 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 28 of 28
1 27 28
  1. [Phillip Adams ‏@PhillipAdams_1 1m
    Stupidity doesn’t explain everything about Sophie Mirabella – but it explains most things]

    I’m with Phillip.

  2. Puff, might be worth noting what portfolios Senator Lundy did get (and in which she has prior experience) …

    Sport is a crap portfolio anyway for a silly nation and below Kate’s abilities.

    I expect you know that the first computer programmer in the world was female? ie Ada the Countess Lovelace

  3. Bemused. Hello. Not so awful, seeing you again. I missed you, as did other sentimentalists. I assume, like Kevin, that you were away at Camp Correction.

    ‘I am not persuaded that should require the detailed attention of a Federal Minister’.

    I think your main point is ‘detailed’.

    It remains a puzzle. Maybe they have no confidence in the powers that be.

  4. 1348

    There should be a single welfare payment. Equal for the aged, disabled, students, unemployed and single parents. Varying only according to the means-test and number of dependent children.

  5. Darn@1336

    Great fun to watch Tanya running rings around Mirabella on Q & A tonight – especially the part where Sofie was busy explaining why the Libs knocked back the Malaysia plan. She had just got to the part about their alleged concern about the fact that Malaysia was not a signatory to the convention when Tanya laughingly interrupted and said – “Oh Sofie, what would you care about that?” The audience cracked up and so did I. That was when Sofie told Tanya not to be nasty, which brought even more laughter. Game, set and match to Tanya.

    Tanya is a favourite of mine. She was in good form tonight and put Sophie down very nicely.

  6. Reposting.

    crikey whitey
    Posted Tuesday, July 2, 2013 at 12:25 am | PERMALINK


    Soiling your point as ever with your absurd extremes.

    ‘Despite her impeccable credentials as a feminist icon and ceiling breaker’

    ‘Shouldn’t forget where you came from’.

    End of stupidity.

    ‘Well single mums would be one group supporting Rudd over Gillard’

    I agree, single parents would be. It was not only politically foolish, it was harsh and unnecessary.

    I could forgive it if Newstart (laughable name) was in any way equitable, but it is not.

  7. bemused @ 1347, there’s no need to hope. Reality has already resolved the debate. There’s no life left in the conflict between JG and KR. Confessions is still supporting Labor. At best, what you’re doing now is testing her resolve :P.

  8. Darn, Bemused and others.

    Tanya Plibersek is so … sensible, logical, fair minded.

    I believe that for lack of a Labor rep she agreed belatedly to QnotA. There in the same outfit she wore to Government House at early AM.

    She was clearly tired, but still sharp enough to counter Sophie M. But really, it was a waste of her time. Hope she gets a sleep in soon.

  9. crikey whitey@1353

    Bemused. Hello. Not so awful, seeing you again. I missed you, as did other sentimentalists. I assume, like Kevin, that you were away at Camp Correction.

    ‘I am not persuaded that should require the detailed attention of a Federal Minister’.

    I think your main point is ‘detailed’.

    It remains a puzzle. Maybe they have no confidence in the powers that be.

    Hi crikey whitey. I am humbled by your kind words. 😀

    Yes, I was cast into the outer darkness again but have since repented my sins and received forgiveness from William the beneficent.

    I really have doubts that sport should have a minister and suspect it has been used in the past to allow some to pursue their passions at public expense.

  10. No matter the poll numbers, any election wins or triumphs through the streets of Rome, Rudd is a mere mortal and more mere than many here will credit.

    But no matter how many rose petals are strewn a his feet, the odour will not go away.

    It took a long time, but I finally have the measure of the man, and it amounts to very little.

  11. Have the polls really changed that much? ER shows 2% switch to Labor from Other, the Newpoll subtracts 4 from its ridiculous 14% Other gives that to Labor and loses 2-3% of its systematic bias against Labor. That’s it!

    Real work needs to be done but Rudd is flying to Jakarta in his typical frenetic activity that replaces actually getting things done for Rudd. Some stupid appointments/lack of appointments—Andrew Leigh should be Assistant Treasurer at least—Bowen will crumple without good backup.

  12. Should Rudd win the election he will need to be replaced in 6–12 months time. No wonder Shorten voted for Rudd, simple calculation that booting Gillard for Rudd now makes it easier for Rudd, inevitably but perhaps a bit sooner than otherwise, to be booted for Shorten.

    Alas for the ALP.

    Damned if I will even vote this time, want no part of this!

  13. Q&A is very rarely anything but a waste of time. After a long hiatus I watched tonight’s episode and was reminded why I was turned off in the first place. Politician talking points versus slightly more digestible politician talking points, Tony Jones smarmily interjecting, guest commentators who are all just so above it all at best and downright obnoxiously wrongheaded or over their heads at worst and a political tragic audience comprised entirely of pseudointellects, students and a few random nut jobs there to clap at entirely inappropriate times.

    It’s alright entertainment (Sophie Mirabella ought to be in stand up) but very rarely offers much of substance in the absence of a PM or LOTO.

    On the other hand Four Corners and Media Watch both put on great shows tonight with very little commentary here. I’ll miss you Mr. Holmes.:(

  14. Sorry Political Animal, but if Rudd wins the ‘unwinnable election’, as that new Morgan poll suggests he could, then he will be untouchable by anyone in the ALP with a direct mandate from the Australian people. As for Shorten, he has already lost the support of Gillard’s backers after knifing her, if he tries to knife Rudd he will lose Rudd’s supporters too

  15. Ha … updated bludger track now looks like a diagram of the queen or king in chess … 😉

    In the time I have been coming here, every slight uptick in the ALP primary/2PP has been met with someone posting The Narrrowing! followed by a variation of Now watch heads start exploding at Menzies House as Mr Rabbott starts copping some serious pressure!

    Here, the uptick has been so rapid and dramatic that The Narrrowing! would have seemed understated and it’s only now that some have begun to remember the second part about exploding heads and Mr Rabbott.

    I could be wrong — perhaps Mr Bonham or our lider maximo will correct me, but I don’t recall a positive shift in ALP support on this scale in a week since at least 2006 when Rudd took over for the first time, and maybe not even then. Can anyone recall its equal?





    PRODUCTIVTY WISE,,, so many posts fall out because of the slowness of the system

  17. Denmore ‏@MrDenmore 14m
    So invisible things can’t constitute a market? I guess this means the $90 trillion global bond market is a mirage.

    Retweeted by michelle wollaston

Comments Page 28 of 28
1 27 28

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *