Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, with Kevin Rudd leading 51-34 as preferred prime minister.

David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.

UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

  1. 1493

    I have no special access to polling. I was merely taking issue with your lumping of the more serious KAP in with the PUP and Wikileaks Party.

  2. I would think a PV of 35 is quite discouraging. I was expecting a bigger bounce but the next 3 weeks will reveal all. I am not impressed.

  3. [At what point do people think the LNP would switch to Turnbull?]

    Hopefully, not before the first meeting after Abbott leads the LNP to a catastrophic election loss.

  4. 1501

    I believe it constitutionally has to be held and why drag the voters back?

    It may not loose. The Coalition have not come out against it the Nationals are for it and improved ALP popularity may see it through.

  5. [Oakeshott Country
    Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 11:16 pm | PERMALINK
    LNp can win on 43. Labor can’t win on less than 38]

    Both can win on any primary vote, as long as they get the majority on preferences. However, if there are KAP and Palmer primaries around, it might make previous election preference distributing on these polls problematic!

  6. Differences in PV as against the other polls just MOE..more green less ALP etc…

    But the current position pretty certain to be 49/51 no?

    That is an incredible result given a few days a go many MPs were wondering if they could find a job somewhere, and people were fretting over Abbott senate control.

    This isn’t 2007 and Labor have left it very late for Rudd, the Rudd effect though still there must fade as time passes, and people got more and more pissed with Labor not changing.

    [Rudd: Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied 36
    Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56

    PPM Rudd 49, Abbott 35]

    To me that shows the Rudd effect is lower than it would have been maybe a year ago and 2007.

    Getting that extra 1-2% is going to be some hard Rudd-bot work.

    Also the state breakdowns will be most interesting..

  7. There is nothing too surprising in any of this poll data from my perspective.

    The reason that Rudd’s satisfied rating is relatively low (given he is storming in as the ALP messiah) is that there would be a lot of ALP voters who are NOT satisfied! :devil:

  8. [To me that shows the Rudd effect is lower than it would have been maybe a year ago and 2007.

    Getting that extra 1-2% is going to be some hard Rudd-bot work.

    Also the state breakdowns will be most interesting..]
    But those numbers are still mainly based on people not even contemplating Abbott as PM.

    For the last 2.5 years most voters have just been motivated by their desire to vote against Gillard. With Rudd as the default and incumbent option now the Coalition has to persuade voters that Abbott is worth voting for when they haven’t bothered doing this much over the last few years because they haven’t had to. “Not Julia Gillard” is no longer a credible campaign strategy for the Coalition.

  9. [#Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 35 (+6) L/NP 43 (-5) GRN 11 (+2) #auspol]

    I wouldn’t have thought the Greens would increase their primary vote along with Labor increasing theirs.

  10. Rudd had better get thee to the GG ASAP, election in the minimum number of days, or he is toast.

    This is peak Rudd.

  11. [Rudd had better get thee to the GG ASAP, election in the minimum number of days, or he is toast.

    This is peak Rudd.]
    No, I think he should get on with governing. He should get the ministers in place, and make some big policy announcements on asylum seekers and the carbon price. He should maybe host a special COAG meeting or something. And perhaps even go to the G20 meeting.

    He should show everyone that he is in charge and is making decisions and the government is back to normal.

    That would then set him up as the incumbent and make it harder for voters to vote for the alternative.

  12. Re: 849

    Psephos,

    Your letter to Robert Manne was ignored for good reasons. By the third paragraph you’re arguing like a typical Internet troll throwing around phrases like “leftwing stupidity”, which is usually triggers the part of the brain which says “delete this partisan crap and get back to some real work”.

    However, as I’m prone to being baited I went a little further:

    “The people arriving on our shores left their own countries for a variety of reasons, mostly economic, and were granted immediate refuge in a second country – Pakistan in the case of the Afghans.”

    This indicates how little you knew about the matter, and is probably still the case.

    1. “Economic refugees” are, at best, a tiny minority of asylum seekers. It was the case then, and it is now.

    http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jun/28/bob-carr/are-boat-people-economic-migrants/

    2. Pakistan does not constitute a safe country of refuge. Nor does India, Malaysia, and Indonesia – because such places are not signatories to the 1951 Convention on the Status of Refugees or the 1967 Protocol. This is not to suggest that being is a signatory is a sufficient criteria for safety; but it is a necessary one.

    I am somewhat surprised, given the extract that you wax on about the convention (but without mentioning the protocol) in the letter, that you are unaware of this.

    I wonder why it is that you show great concern for some refugees but not for others.

  13. Checklist:

    • House-sitter installed;
    • Ticket and passport;
    • 1 carry-on bag (no cargo stuff);
    • Tooth brush and paste;
    • Spare undies & a shirt;
    • Deodorant in;
    • Wallet with CC’s; and

    I’m gone.

    Adios for a while.

    CBR-SYD-DXB on the way to Nice.

    I’ll sulk about JG up in the hills outside Castillon (http://www.france-voyage.com/towns/castillon-22790.htm) for a while.

  14. Tricot@1400

    Of course the media is serious. They’re simply confirming the very things you have (quite correctly) said in 818 and 1311.

    After all, we remember The Age editorial a week ago that suggested that Gillard should resign.

    Well, it’s about time they said the same about Abbott.

    Rudd vs Turnbull. Finally the Australian people will get the 2010 election that they wanted 🙂

  15. Rossmore:

    [Julia is my generation’s Gough, forever loved and admired for her achievements, arguably under much more difficult circumstances than GW.]

    I disagree. Whitlam came in after the ALP had been out of power for 23 years, and with a hostile senate — and he went to a s57 dissolution and a joint-sitting in 1974 to get stuff through. Whitlam was more ambitious than Gillard and he had tried a technically more challenging task — getting everything done in 3 years.

    He made some missteps too of course — most importantly, putting Lionel Murphy on the HCA which cost him a senate spot when the then Liberal Premier of NSW appointed Colston as his replacement. With JB-P appointing Pat Field in QLD after the death of Bert Milner, this set in train the senate blockade which ultimately brought Gough undone.

    I’m never sure nearly 40 years later how much of my sympathy for Gough is simply rose-tinted glasses based nostalgia, anger at the manner of his removal or a sober assessment of his contribution. When you’re 14 (as I was in 1972) everything seems so much more important. Gough was the first person (and perhaps the last) to make this child of mixed parentage feel a sense of joy at being Australian. Here was a man of intellect — someone who had plainly read a book or two — which always scored big with me — who spoke with passion about the big picture things. Even though as a youngster, I’d fancied Jim Cairns in the great leadership stoush, I was thrilled when Gough won and was on a high for months after. He seemed politcally fearless and was in my view, also peerless in his ability to put the case for change. And as I said a little while back, I was gutted when he was turned out of office and visceral in my disgust at those who had been party to it. More than any other single factor, 1972-1975 ensured that I could never countenance support for the Liberals nor count myself as anything that didn’t include being a socialist. The tears from Malcolm Fraser 8 years later at his defeat was the last time I can recall Schadenfreude.

    Julia Gillard did some good things, along with more than a few seriously objectionable things and some that were craven and/or unwise. She was the victim of a campaign comparable to that suffered by Whitlam, punctuated by the most crude misogyny — something Whitlam of course avoided. Breaking the glass ceiling and becoming PM by election was an important step for women in this country, and that has to be hailed. She is right when she says that despite the mediaeval spite poured out upon her by intellectual bottom-feeders, henceforth, the path will be easier for other women.

    That said, I found her hard to warm to. She always struck me as robotic and poorly programmed as well. That probabaly wasn’t “real Julia”, who, for all I know, really is, at a personal level, a warm and charming person with a genuine desire to make the world a more just place (albeit with a much more pessimistic vision than I have about what is possible).

    As with Gough, I was scandalised at the manner of her departure, but I was a lot more scandalised at 1975. In that case, it seemed that the bosses had struck directly at working people, in a manner reminiscent of Allende 1974 in Chile, whereas here, it seemed merely that Graham Richardson’s chickens really had come home to roost, carried on the wind supplied by Murdoch.

    Somewhere, there’s a part of me that loves the idea that I could live long enough to see an ALP that really did remind me of the ALP of 1972-75 (preferably without the making it up as they went along style chaos). I suspect that’s one of the major reasons many of us older folk on the left have joined The Greens and why we get such a good slice of young adults and even adolescents. Vision and passion are appealing things, along with nostalgia. But Gillard isn’t and never will be Gough for me.

  16. I really think parliament should be recalled and the Government should put a bill to both houses to shift to an ETS from January 1.

    If it passes, Rudd can say that he got rid of the Carbon Tax.

    If it doesn’t pass, Rudd can blame the coalition for not helping get rid of the carbon tax.

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