David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.
UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.
UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 51s
#Galaxy Poll Preferred Treasurer: Bowen 20 Hockey 38 #auspol
[confessions
Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 10:52 pm | PERMALINK
LOL the OO is back to Shanahan circa 2007 emphasising the PPM and you lot fall all over it swooning.]
You think a 6% rise in the primary vote is noise?
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 42s
#Galaxy Poll Has Rudd improved leadership style: Yes 33 No 43 #auspol
[#Galaxy Poll Preferred Treasurer: Bowen 20 Hockey 38 #auspol]
I’m surprised 20% know who Bowen is. He’ll want to be better at Treasury than he was an Immigration.
I think we’re being gamed by Newspoll here. Tell us the 2PV ratfuckers.
confessions@1445
Everyone remember that PPM favours the incumbent unless the 2PP is really bad. For a 2PP of 50-50 the normal PPM is about a 16-point lead for the incumbent PM.
People should not get excited about PPM figures without taking that into account. confessions’ warning above is sound.
Looking for the PPM on NewsPoll
Abbott needs some more pressure like the 34-51 Galaxy to cause him to do something stupid – like go on ling form TV interview or debate
Bowen @ 20% preferred treasurer on day 1 is probably not that bad, given his opponent barely has a third of the voters…
Psephos
yes. No LNP primary yet either
[You think a 6% rise in the primary vote is noise?]
2PP is the issue, not primary vote or preferred treasurer or whatever obscure question is considered newsworthy.
Has Rudd improved leadership style? What a moronic poll question three days after his return.
Looking like 52/48 unless the LNP primary has tanked badly.
@Kevin/1456
I think both you and Confessions are confused as to who is getting excited…. About polling data.
Peak Rudd!
Well the Greens are about 8% tops?
Are we getting a Newspoll or a Galaxy? I thought we already had Galaxy?
PV of 35 is about 3% below Reachtel and Galaxy.
Looks like I’m right about the brakes being applied by Newspoll.
Expect others to be 3% higher than other polls.
Davidwh,
That’s what I was trying to say earlier. People were mistaking “best primary since early this year” for “best primary this year”.
It’s obviously the former.
KB
your PPM comments are valid, but if bad ones flush out Abbott or better, gate him replaced, we are “cooking with gas”
confessions
Peter Van Onselen said Newspoll being posted at 11
Be happy if it 52/48 against Labor it not a bad poll at all.
[Peak Rudd!]
Not necessarily, Leon, and Icepick with authority on this question. 🙂
[7m
@GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Has Rudd improved leadership style: Yes 33 No 43 #auspol]
this has to be up there with stupid questions asked
Mr Albanese will be a good contrast to Turnbull in Broadband debate.
Depending on the other primary results this isn’t looking like a disaster for the Coalition although I hope it means we get more focus on policy and not so much of the wedging.
Newspoll 51-49 to coalition
Primaries ALP 35, LNP 43, Greens 11
Greens 11%
POPPYCOCK
Good result for Labor. Not far for a campaign to pick up.
Centre note the Greens are on 11 for future reference.
1444
Katter`s Party is filling a void in Australian politics for a conservative economically interventionist party. It is particularly strong in FNQ. It is no mere vanity party. One Nation showed that there is space for such a party but it has to be better run and less overtly offensive to other parties (to get preferences) and the KAP is such a party.
Palmer`s and Assange`s parties are vanity come pressure parties for their figureheads` interests. Assanges party has to be particularly watched on preference so it does not move votes from left to right like the DLP did.
Thanks James J
You are a gem. 🙂
[Mr Albanese will be a good contrast to Turnbull in Broadband debate.]
It’s a good match because Albo loathes Turnbull. His “struggle street in Point Piper” jab was a classic.
LNP has tanked more than the Labor primary indicated. They will struggle to win on 43%.
Centre, maybe while Rudd supporters switched back to Labor, Gillard supporters switched to Greens.
Rudd: Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied 36
Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56
PPM Rudd 49, Abbott 35
28-30 June 1149 sample
@sprocket_/1473
Well the polls are media owned, they usually ask stupid questions 😛
Guytaur
Deal 😎
davidwh
Surely you jest.
I’ll settle for 51-49, although I don’t know how you get that from a pv of 35%. A bit disappointing that.
Centre,
Why poppycock? No surprise that some Gillard supporters would now be considering a vote for the Greens, preferencing Labor. Entirely predictable I would have thought, and good news for Labor overall.
sprocket_@1469
Yeah that’s fair enough. Big PPM leads have some interest value and use in the current circumstance because of the unjustified media hype they may generate.
Can live with 51 – 49 at this stage.
How much of that 6% increase in primary came off the Lib primary.
Thanks Tom for not answering my question.
Labor + Greens > LNP = 🙂
I think that Rudd should avoid Parliament coming back, to avoid a coup against Abbott, and hold the election in about 2 moths time (the earliest without a separate local government referendum).
[.@SenKimCarr renters Cabinet as Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research and Higher Education. ]
Come back, Ford, you can have all the subsidies you want!
It’s POPPYCOCK because they won’t get that on election day.
But yes, I agree, Julia supporters are going to the Greens temporarily.
At what point do people think the LNP would switch to Turnbull?
Probably should have been
(Labor + Greens) > LNP = 🙂
Victoria I have a feeling Labor may get a better % of others than in 2010 particularly if Katter does some deals with Rudd. On those numbers it could be very tight particularly in QLD.