Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, with Kevin Rudd leading 51-34 as preferred prime minister.

David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.

UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [confessions
    Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 10:52 pm | PERMALINK
    LOL the OO is back to Shanahan circa 2007 emphasising the PPM and you lot fall all over it swooning.]

    You think a 6% rise in the primary vote is noise?

  2. [#Galaxy Poll Preferred Treasurer: Bowen 20 Hockey 38 #auspol]

    I’m surprised 20% know who Bowen is. He’ll want to be better at Treasury than he was an Immigration.

  3. confessions@1445

    LOL the OO is back to Shanahan circa 2007 emphasising the PPM and you lot fall all over it swooning.

    FFS. The media these days is a total joke.

    Everyone remember that PPM favours the incumbent unless the 2PP is really bad. For a 2PP of 50-50 the normal PPM is about a 16-point lead for the incumbent PM.

    People should not get excited about PPM figures without taking that into account. confessions’ warning above is sound.

  4. Looking for the PPM on NewsPoll

    Abbott needs some more pressure like the 34-51 Galaxy to cause him to do something stupid – like go on ling form TV interview or debate

  5. Bowen @ 20% preferred treasurer on day 1 is probably not that bad, given his opponent barely has a third of the voters…

  6. [You think a 6% rise in the primary vote is noise?]

    2PP is the issue, not primary vote or preferred treasurer or whatever obscure question is considered newsworthy.

  7. PV of 35 is about 3% below Reachtel and Galaxy.

    Looks like I’m right about the brakes being applied by Newspoll.

    Expect others to be 3% higher than other polls.

  8. Davidwh,
    That’s what I was trying to say earlier. People were mistaking “best primary since early this year” for “best primary this year”.
    It’s obviously the former.

  9. KB

    your PPM comments are valid, but if bad ones flush out Abbott or better, gate him replaced, we are “cooking with gas”

  10. [7m
    @GhostWhoVotes: #Galaxy Poll Has Rudd improved leadership style: Yes 33 No 43 #auspol]

    this has to be up there with stupid questions asked

  11. Depending on the other primary results this isn’t looking like a disaster for the Coalition although I hope it means we get more focus on policy and not so much of the wedging.

  12. 1444

    Katter`s Party is filling a void in Australian politics for a conservative economically interventionist party. It is particularly strong in FNQ. It is no mere vanity party. One Nation showed that there is space for such a party but it has to be better run and less overtly offensive to other parties (to get preferences) and the KAP is such a party.

    Palmer`s and Assange`s parties are vanity come pressure parties for their figureheads` interests. Assanges party has to be particularly watched on preference so it does not move votes from left to right like the DLP did.

  13. [Mr Albanese will be a good contrast to Turnbull in Broadband debate.]

    It’s a good match because Albo loathes Turnbull. His “struggle street in Point Piper” jab was a classic.

  14. Rudd: Satisfied 36, Dissatisfied 36
    Abbott: Satisfied 35, Dissatisfied 56

    PPM Rudd 49, Abbott 35

    28-30 June 1149 sample

  15. Centre,
    Why poppycock? No surprise that some Gillard supporters would now be considering a vote for the Greens, preferencing Labor. Entirely predictable I would have thought, and good news for Labor overall.

  16. sprocket_@1469

    KB

    your PPM comments are valid, but if bad ones flush out Abbott or better, gate him replaced, we are β€œcooking with gas”

    Yeah that’s fair enough. Big PPM leads have some interest value and use in the current circumstance because of the unjustified media hype they may generate.

  17. I think that Rudd should avoid Parliament coming back, to avoid a coup against Abbott, and hold the election in about 2 moths time (the earliest without a separate local government referendum).

  18. [.@SenKimCarr renters Cabinet as Minister for Innovation, Industry, Science and Research and Higher Education. ]

    Come back, Ford, you can have all the subsidies you want!

  19. It’s POPPYCOCK because they won’t get that on election day.

    But yes, I agree, Julia supporters are going to the Greens temporarily.

  20. Victoria I have a feeling Labor may get a better % of others than in 2010 particularly if Katter does some deals with Rudd. On those numbers it could be very tight particularly in QLD.

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