Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition’s lead at 51-49, with Kevin Rudd leading 51-34 as preferred prime minister.

David Penberthy on Twitter conveys tomorrow’s Sunday Mail front page, showing a Galaxy poll conducted on Thursday and Friday evenings has the Coalition leading 51-49 (compared with 55-45 in the poll a fortnight ago), with Kevin Rudd holding a 51-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister. More to follow.

UPDATE: I can reveal the poll has Labor’s primary vote up six to 38%, 57% supporting the leadership change, and 52% thinking Bill Shorten personally did the right thing in switching to Rudd against 30% for the wrong thing. Still a few gaps to be filled there of course.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full tables: Coalition down three to 44%, Greens down one to 10%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,535 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Henry

    Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    Fear not Boerwar, another Gough is not that far away for thr true believers.
    ——————————————————–

    If the Institute of Public Affairs has any say in it we can expect Abbott to emulate Gough Whitlam.

    If Tony Abbott wants to leave a lasting impact – and secure his place in history – he needs to take his inspiration from Australia’s most left-wing prime minister.

    No prime minister changed Australia more than Gough Whitlam.

    they couldn’t find a Liberal PM worth emulating

  4. Editorial Observer ‏@BarossaObserver 26m
    BREAKING: #Newspoll TPP: ALP 54% Coalition Heads Explode #Libspill #auspol

    the games people play….

  5. [The build up of tension during three years of watching and waiting powerlessly for Rudd’s treachery to reach a its interim conclusion has been terrible for all decent Labor people. It culminated in the wreckage in the polling of a Labor Government and the utter destruction of a Labor Prime Minister.]
    Oh FFS mate! Julia Gillard had NOTHING to do with 2.5 years worth of bad polls?

  7. JM

    ‘Not once you factor in the policies (or lack of them) and the team they have.’

    Rudd’s policies are poll-driven attempts at shoring up his personal political power. If Rudd has his way, some of you are in for a few nasty surprises between now and the election.

    After six years of Rudd-about-town, there are only four survivors of the original Labor Cabinet. Two of those voted against him in his most recent destruction of Prime Minister Gillard.

  9. I think Rudd V Abbott is a much better match up for Labor than Rudd V Turnbull.

    The impression you get from Abbott is he is a bit reckless and a bit of a buffoon.

    The impression you get from Turnbull is that he has a rough idea of what he is doing.

  11. Sir, you mistake sarcasm for sincere appreciation. Never have I seen a rodent-cuddler rodent-cuddle as this rodent-cuddler rodent-cuddles.

    One just has to admire a man who takes pride in his work.

  12. [Oh FFS mate! Julia Gillard had NOTHING to do with 2.5 years worth of bad polls?]

    For 6 years Gillard was either in charge or deputy, but, please get with the picture, she bears ABSOLUTELY NO RESPONSIBILITY WHATSOEVER for the government.

    None.

    Its not that hard to follow, ShowsOn, do try to keep up won’t you?

  17. Just saw this.

    ‘Oh FFS mate! Julia Gillard had NOTHING to do with 2.5 years worth of bad polls?’

    Who said that? Not me. It is clear to me that Gillard’s mistakes did contribute to the bad pols.

  18. [marky marky
    Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 10:30 pm | PERMALINK
    What will their Climate policy be with a switch to Turnbull?]

    This is the major sticking point…..can he stomach the party not going with a CPRS or can the party stomach going with a CPRS to save the election?

  19. Tricot

    Posted Sunday, June 30, 2013 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Goodness – 54%-46%. Really??

    What a fickle lot we are.
    ——————————————–

    as I said someone playing gaes

  20. With regard to certain postings I recall Winston Churchill:

    “A fanatic is one who can’t change his mind and won’t change the subject”

    F

  21. So … Turnbull vs Rudd?

    Now that would be a contest worth watching! An ineffectual, blustering, patronizing, smarmy git versus … oh, wait.

  22. [I don’t give a fuck about your dark place, Borewar – I care about beating Tony Abbott. None of us who supported Gillard has enjoyed this last week, but we have eaten our shit sandwiches and got back on the cart (if you’ll excuse my mixed metaphors).]

    WOW, Psephos! Finally something on which we’re in agreement!

    I was so grateful I’d left Q’s Dept of Ed before “the boot” and “Gulags & broom-cupboards” carnage started (but did get tired of having my shoulder cried on). In 2007, I hoped Kev would have changed. At first it seemed he did; but not for long.

    At least, before this week, all the heavy policy work, that made JG’s government one of the Great Reformist ones, has been done. If having Rudd back meant that lying, lazy, arrogant, gutless, wannabe-Toff, bully-boy Grouper, Abbott, and the embarrassing disgraces who make up the Opposition, are stopped from wrecking this Parliament’s achievements, I’ll cop it sweet where KR is concerned.

  24. Actually I am enjoying Boerwar’s amusing posts. A measure of humour and good perception.

    While unity etc is a good thing there are limits. There will be a fair few Labor members and supporters voting for the Greens and then some form of preference to Labor ahead of LNP due to their view of PM Rudd.

    But that shouldn’t stop people working in watever way possible to put the LNP back on the Opposition benches – after all that seems to be what they are best at.

  25. Thanks AA

    Actually I hope it is nothing like this having lived through the halcyon days of 60-40 with Rudd those many years ago.

    Polls like this at totally unsustainable and unbelievable.

    At this point in time, to be somewhere near the MOE would be fine I would have thought.

    The crucial polls will be those approaching the election campaign.

  28. @Tricot/1425

    Perhaps the average polling of all polls will be about 50-50 51/49 ? That would be safer bet till the election day.

  29. So what happens when the sugar-coating wears thin and you hit the salt?

    Just remember I said this. It will all end it tears.

  31. Puffy

    It was going to end in tears with Julia at the helm. Much better for it to happen with Rudd carrying the can.

  32. You will also see that most of the earlier graves in Scottish churchyards for women have their maiden names engraved as well, something I agree with

  33. The best thing about thinking everything’s going to turn out for the worst is that any surprise will be a pleasant one :).

  34. Regarding a possible high Newspoll for Labor, it is worth remembering that Newspoll came in at 55% to Labor at the start of the 2010 campaign.

    F

  35. Psephos’s Rudd shit sandwich metaphor resonates. Of course I’ll be be supporting the ALP come the election, but Julia is my generation’s Gough, forever loved and admired for her achievements, arguably under much more difficult circumstances than GW.

  38. [What does this say about our media?]

    That in their guts they know Abbott’s nuts?

    That, as far as doing his job on policy etc, he’s as useless as he is lazy?

    That he’s likely to get thrashed at the election: so no hope of stopping the NBN, or faith in Rupert’s taking over AN, ABC & SBS, opening new career possibilities inc OS?

    Their hopes that Government advertising’s “Rivers of Gold” will again flow their newspapers’ way, so their jobs are safer, are dashed, and their gazillionaire string-pullers will make their lives hell over it?

  40. boerwar

    thanks for your thoughts. i sympathise with your malaise – such would have been win in the vote went otherwise last week

    many obviously now beg to differ – personally i’m very light and optimistic after three long years, sorry

    the problem is boerwar who is listening? who wants a debate within labor, what would it achieve.

  43. [KEVIN Rudd has stormed ahead of Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister and dramatically lifted Labor’s primary vote to a six-month high only days after becoming the party’s leader again.

    The Prime Minister has improved on the lead he had over the Opposition Leader as preferred prime minister three years ago, when Julia Gillard replaced him and Labor’s primary vote is the same as it was the weekend before he was dumped – 35 per cent.

    As Labor MPs expected, the removal of Ms Gillard last Wednesday night – three years after Mr Rudd was removed because of poor polling and having lost his way – instantly shifted the polls in Mr Rudd’s favour and has given Labor a fighting chance through to the election.

    Labor would still lose an election if one were held now based on this national survey but a “catastrophic loss”, which Mr Rudd said Labor was headed for at the scheduled September 14 election, would be averted.

    According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian at the weekend, the ALP primary vote jumped six percentage points from 29 to 35 per cent after Mr Rudd was made Prime Minister.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/kevin-rudd-storms-ahead-of-tony-abbott-in-newspoll-survey/story-fn59nqld-1226672244943

  44. Since we’re back to polls now, can anyone advise whether there has been any polling revealing any significant level of support for (a) Katter’s, (b) Palmer’s or (c) Assange’s respective vanity parties?

  45. LOL the OO is back to Shanahan circa 2007 emphasising the PPM and you lot fall all over it swooning.

    FFS. The media these days is a total joke.

  46. So, on a primary of 35 there is a ways to go as yet. Will be interesting if we are yet to see some of those who are at the moment stricken at Julia Gillard’s departure come back as well?

    Any idea of the Others and Green vote this poll?

  50. Well, if a 6% rise in the PV translates into a 6% rise in the 2PV, that’s a 2PV of 49%. But of course some of it may be coming off Greens and Others.

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