James J reports Newspoll has come in at 51-49 to the Coalition (compared with 57-43 last week) from primary votes of 35% for Labor (up six), 43% for the Coalition (down five) and 11% for the Greens (up two). Kevin Rudd holds a handy 49-35 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, but achieves a neutral result with his debut personal ratings with both approval and disapproval at 36%. Tony Abbott is down one on approval to 35% and up three on disapproval to 56%.
We also have supplementary results from yesterday’s Galaxy poll courtesy of GhostWhoVotes showing Joe Hockey favoured over Chris Bowen as preferred Treasurer 38% to 20%, and 33% saying Rudd’s leadership style has improved against 43% who say it hasn’t (although that may include people who think it didn’t need to). (UPDATE: I gather from Simon Benson’s Daily Telegraph report that it was put to respondents that that some thought his style “chaotic and dysfunctional”).
UPDATE (Essential Research): GhostWhoVotes relates that Essential Research, which normally provides only a fortnightly rolling average, has published results from the most recent polling period (Thursday to Sunday) showing the primary votes at 38% for Labor (up four), 46% for the Coalition (down one) and 9% for the Greens (up one), panning out to 52-48 to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The normal rolling average, which in the circumstances tells us very little, moves from 55-45 to 53-47.
UPDATE 2: Bernard Keane in Crikey:
The decision to dump Gillard was approved by 55% of voters, including 24% who strongly approved, and opposed by 31%. Some 77% of Labor voters approved, 40% of Liberal voters and 49% of Greens voters. But men were much more likely to approve: 63% of male voters supported Gillard’s removal, compared to only 46% of women; women disapproved 36% compared to 29% of men. A third of voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor and only 19% said it made them less likely. More than 60% of Labor voters said it made them more likely to vote Labor, and 14% of Liberal voters, but a third of Liberal voters said it made them less likely to vote Labor …
The extent to which Labor collapsed after improving in the second half of 2012 is illustrated by a series of responses on which groups would be better off under Labor or the Coalition. In September last year, voters gave Labor a big lead for groups like pensioner, the unemployed, people on low incomes, people with disabilities, people who send their children to public schools and recently arrived immigrants.
Last week, Labor’s lead had shrunk virtually across the board: its preference as the best party for the unemployed fell from 27 points to 14 points; for low-income earners from 27 points to 21 points; for single parents from 23 to 15 points. Only for people with disabilities had it increased, from 20 to 21 points. The damage done to Labor’s “branding” as a party to be trusted to look after lower income earners is significant.
There’s also been a significant drop in support for keeping our troops in Afghanistan, with the level of voters wanting us to withdraw our troops increasing seven points to 69%, with virtually no difference across voting intention.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): The Morgan multi-mode poll is the first pollster to actually have Labor in front, their primary vote at 39.5% (up 11% on last week) to 40.5% for the Coalition (down 10%) and 8.5% for the Greens (up half a point). This gives Labor a respondent-allocated preferences lead of 51.5-48.5, which emerges as 51-49 when using preference flows from the previous election.
@Mod Lib/1247
Ta!
@Guytaur/1248
That sounds like an open admission!
[Rossmore
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 10:38 pm | PERMALINK
Mod Lib I suspect you’ve left out a fair swag of LNP members who are staying mum pending the outcome of the election…. Call this the “possible LNP departures in the evemt of an ALP win”. Bronwyn Bishop, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb, Julie Bishop for starters …]
The list of those who might go if their side loses is beyond my patience to put together!
[jaundiced view
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 10:42 pm | PERMALINK
Feeney gets the seat. That’s a relief. Imagine the ministry without him. They’d be scraping the bottom of the barrel. Oh, no wait ..]
When a faceless man supports the person he helped knife, does that make him two-faced?
[Feeney gets the seat. That’s a relief. Imagine the ministry without him. They’d be scraping the bottom of the barrel.]
Don’t worry. Fitzgibbon, Jacinta Collins, KCarr, and Doug Cameron can take up that role.
I must say I enjoyed that QandA very much. I was not expecting to.
Connie
no no no no no
It’s big WHOOP that it’s no surprise now that we all know that Murdoch virtually controls the show (with his media’s reporting of politics).
Don’t be norty :kiss:
Mod Lib
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink
Abbott said this is not the B team this is the C team.
Incorrect.
These are the Cabinets from this term in office:
A) Sep 2010
B) Dec 2011
C) Feb 2013
D) Mar 2013
E) June 2013
Based on this, what we currently have is the “E team” Cabinet!
——————————————————
It Must be a bugger when the Libs are so lacking any talent they have to stick with the same tired old faces who do little or nothing as Shadow Ministers. Except pick up the extra pay and benefits.
Pyne Shadow for Education 3 questions in 3 years about education
Dutton Shadow for Health – no questions regarding health for over 1,000 days.
And Labor agreed for there to be more Shadow Ministers than Labor had Front Bench Ministers…and still they couldn’t get their heads around asking questions related to their shadow portfolio….
The Liberals are the return of the living dead.
Mod Lib
It means he’s been very careless with the knife, for a start.
Mod Lib
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
jaundiced view
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 10:42 pm | PERMALINK
Feeney gets the seat. That’s a relief. Imagine the ministry without him. They’d be scraping the bottom of the barrel. Oh, no wait ..
When a faceless man supports the person he helped knife, does that make him two-faced?
——————————————————–
how can a faceless man have even one face???
I hope Maxine McKew gets another chance in Bennelong.
@1257, Sophie Mirabella is shadow something-or-other. Nuff said.
But ShowsOn the good bergers of Bennelong would lose said hard working local MP JA lol!
confessions
Do you think the old adage is, “Scraping the barrel about halfway up?”
Centre:
Who won the NRL tonight?
@BBCWorld: French President Francois Hollande says embassy bugging claims may threaten huge planned trade deal with US http://t.co/wpsVesHgF6
Kudelka can help with the number of facets to the faceless:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/men-without-a-face/story-e6frg8h6-1226384704214
So no Nielsen, as was the whisper on Twitter?
jv:
I guess that remains to be seen. There is a large part of me who thinks parliament should be recalled for a couple of weeks, but then I think about the newly sworn in front bench and realise how hopeless that would be.
Night
[But ShowsOn the good bergers of Bennelong would lose said hard working local MP JA lol!]
What is he again? Shadow Parliamentary Secretary for Tennis?
Don’t ask.
I still have yet to go through a weekend with a 100% success rate 😡 still finished in front with 3 winning games out of 4 😛
Roosters brained them 18 – 12.
Manly are struggling, they won’t make the top 4 unless they are at full strength and injury free 😎
Centre, forget the Rugby, all you need to know is that the Tigers are on the Prowl!!!
If you have a few minutes to waste, watch this ultimate unhinging:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_y0vsxp75JA&feature=youtube_gdata_player
confessions@1242
Which party did you join?
You have been arguing strenuously against the caucus taking the step that has now made Labor competitive. ipso facto, you have been supporting Abbott and still are.
YB
I went within two clicks of the mouse (in the NRL) from backing them to beat the Storm but didn’t 😐
Labor will go August 24 I think.
Bed down the Rudd Education Reforms and AS and change to an ETS and bam.
“I went within two clicks of the mouse (in the NRL) from backing them to beat the Storm but didn’t”
I was talking about the Real Tigers, the boys from the MCG.
anyways YELLOW AND BLACK !!!!
[Labor will go August 24 I think.
Bed down the Rudd Education Reforms and AS and change to an ETS and bam.]
If Labor wins it will go down as another election for the true believers like 1993.
Oh and for the people who think Abbott is a gigantic dickhead.
Confessions
The front bench will be fine and parliament should sit again.
s
But basically this is all terrific. It is what I knew would happen from 2010, given the dopes who did it, but I had no idea the electoral bounce would be so quick afterwards. That tells us two stories.
I still think it is probably too late for a Labor win the House, but it will keep the LNP’s hands off the Senate, which was my worry. As to reform, I like the talk, but let’s see. The good thing is the hollow wing is in disarray, like feral dogs after a 1080 drive. It’s basic reform I’m after, as you know.
Kath Crosby @kathoc 1h
I did a whole blog post on the Liberal’s not-policies already today http://bit.ly/14IfhGt
bemused
Perhaps it’s possible for different people to believe different things about what benefits Labor :P.
confessions@1269
So who on the front bench do you consider not up to the job?
YB
I’d of thought that the Cats like Geelong are a more appropriate mascot in the Ballerina 😆
*night*
ShowsOn
🙁
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmuUu4zgm7w
If Rudd wins…
DisplayName@1283
Yes, obviously confessions and some others see a PV of 29% as highly desirable.
I don’t.
I still have no idea why Labor made Crean leader after the 2001 election.
Beazley should’ve stayed on.
ShowsOn@1288
The ways of caucus are indeed mysterious as evidenced by Latham and Gillard being made leaders.
Centre [1125]
Posted Monday, July 1, 2013 at 9:58 pm | Permalink
Yeah Tanya stick it up Sophie!
EEUWWW!!!
[If Labor wins it will go down as another election for the true believers like 1993.]
If Labor wins it will go down as an election for the renewed believers .
TP you gotta be loving it now 🙂
Centre, just read that Jack “Captain Blood” Dyer (he of the ‘Truths’ “Dyer ‘ere” Column) once stood for pre-selection in the state seat of Prahran
bemused
PV may not be the metric they’re using.
DTR- I don’t think it’s sexist to dislike Ms Mirabella- she just seems to be an awful human being. I take the word of Mr Windsor on that.
The ways of caucus are ‘mysterious’ because they are governed by a few people who hold member’ careers in their hands and also got them they are in the first place, despite what Psephos and his vested interests might say.
Yes, the factional groups coalesce and separate, and aren’t left or right (they’re all ‘right’ really) but the bosses rule the troops and decide all that.
IF Labor win, I don’t know what would be better – the outcry amongst Ackerman/Bolt/Morris/Kroger, or Abbott’s speech.
I fear it will be the reverse, however.
DisplayName@1294
I was being kind. I know their thinking is disordered. 👿
@GC/1297
Would it be worse than 2007 speech by Howard?
In a nutshell
[The poorest are “incentivised” with income cuts and sanctions, but bankers, CEOs and MPs need bonuses, tax cuts and pay rises to be. Got it.
— Jacob Richardson (@jjarichardson) July 1, 2013]