Two new poll findings to start the day with:
• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.
• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.
Anyone remember that cartoon series from The Australian back in 2007 when we had John Howard and Kevin Rudd (with his Tin Tin dog) in the boxing ring fighting it out and Peter Cotello on the side doing tag team with Howard.
I’d love to see one of those cartoons based on the current election… I can see it now… Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard in the ring, with the boxing gloves on looking bloody and bruised beating the crap out of each other and Tony Abbott on the sidelines… completely unscathed with a massive smirk on his face screaming “Hit ’em again, Hit ’em again!”
Would certainly be one to purchase and frame up on the wall..
The leadership stuff has run its race so now we’re onto hating the PM for knitting????
Compact
At the risk of seeming to be too gooey eyed, in fact Rudd’s commitment to the homeless is actually very genuine and is one of the things that first impressed me
Without ANY media coverage on the way HOME from his victory speech in 2007 he stopped by a homeless shelter.
He also (foolishly) ordered all his rather less charitably inclined MPs to visit homeless shelter the next day.
Along with his commitment to help others in a crisis (aka floods) this seems to be a core part of his belief system. (I guess from his very christian Mum and that “country boy” ethic)
I know for example that he carried furniture through the Qld flood at midnight WITH NO CAMERAS in sight – by absolute chance the guy he helped is a good friend of mine
@CC/299
Now you making accusations before they even happen? How desperate are you lot?
[Well you won’t even be contacted by those not wanting Gillard as leader.]
Why not, bemused?
You don’t want Gillard as leader and yet you constantly state here you’ll be campaigning for Labor.
[The Geek Editorial @geeksrulz 3m
A Roads Scholar showing how it’s done. Don’t come publicity stunt with me. pic.twitter.com/ErB4NGPzhU ]
That’s good. 🙂
From the BBC Breaking News site:
‘Militants have attacked security forces near the presidential palace in the centre of the Afghan capital, Kabul.
A BBC correspondent says the assailants are embroiled in clashes with President Hamid Karzai’s bodyguards, as well as US personnel from the nearby CIA station.
There have been a series of loud explosions, sending debris flying.
The attack comes only days after Mr Karzai raised objections about US-backed peace talks with the Taliban.
He said the High Peace Council, the government body set up to lead peace efforts, would not take part unless the process was “Afghan-led”.’
So, are the militants the same as the insurgents the same as the Taliban that the US wants to talk to, but Karzai doesn’t want the US to talk to and that, in any case, will not agree to talk with the US?
This sort of rubbish is what Australian soldiers are being sacrificed for. This rubbish is what we have spent more than $8 billions for. It is time to cut our losses and to get out.
Anything except ask Abbott about policy
The Geek Editorial @geeksrulz 33s
Shouldn’t these people find something better to do than knitting in a warzone http://bit.ly/14UcCeM #auspol
To knit pearl or plain, that is the policy issue engrossing the MSM today.
MSM started unhinging when it seemed Mr Rudd could campaign to help get PMJG elected.
Mr Rudd was not just campaigning for Rudd supporters.
So I think if you are a PMJG supporter or a K Rudd supporter you are both Labor supporters attacked by a LNP campaigning MSM
Darn you have to hope that most of the really important policy like NDIS will be taken up by the Coalition. It’s the important social policies you want to see retained and I think they largely will be. I doubt that even the CPRS will be entirely reversed.
I hope we see some real open and transparent policy review in areas such as compliance, productivity, taxation and IR however better governments than the next one is likely to be have failed in these areas.
I think my greatest concern is that we will have three years of treading water at a time we badly need some real reform in all the economic areas. We will just have to see what pans out.
[NormanK @NormanK4 52m
Knitters of Australia Rise Up!
We shall not be oppressed!
#auspol pic.twitter.com/NS031eMvBL ]
Not even slightly unravelled.
Darn
Yeah. Listen to DWH. Cross your fingers and hope that the Coalition has got a skerrick of human decency in there somewhere.
Well that’s it, then.
Kismet ALP.
Not with a bang but a whimper.
Compact Crank
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 12:52 pm | Permalink
Will Gillard follow Bligh’s lead and make spurious allegations, refer Abbott to Authorities, admit to having no evidence then plead for votes for the sake of democracy?
——————————————————–
Reminds me of Abbott and his team accusing JGPM over the AWU without any evidence
“@PeterFosterALP: Love it.
“I’m voting for the knitter not the nutter”
#auspol #ausvotes”
[ MSM started unhinging when it seemed Mr Rudd could campaign to help get PMJG elected. ]
Unhinging is all the MSM seem to do any more.
Which is why no-one buys their crap any longer, of course.
Where I work they used to sell newspapers daily in the canteen. Now they don’t even bother stocking them. The empty rack sits there staring at anyone and everyone who comes in.
Wow policy question to Motor guy at NPC
The Conversation @ConversationEDU 5m
The Coalition’s promise to fix our national security crisis is misguided policy writes Daniel Baldino @NotreDame: http://bit.ly/131G2IL
The sad thing is that many on this site will be quite sanguine about an Abbott victory as long as it means that Gillard doesn’t get kicked out in the way that Rudd did, and most importantly that she is not replaced by the evil/treacherous/egomaniac/sociopath Rudd.
Talk about double standards, but consistency has never been their strong point, it’s more about blind devotion.
I’m a bit puzzled about Liberal Party supporters criticising Labor for sticking with a leader who seems likey to lose an election, when that is precisely what they did in 2007 with Howard, and for precisely the same reason. Apparently when they do it it’s called loyalty, but when we do it it’s called stupidity.
[ I think my greatest concern is that we will have three years of treading water at a time we badly need some real reform in all the economic areas. We will just have to see what pans out. ]
The problem with the Noalition is that we won’t just be treading water should they win. If there is a buck in it they will sell it – otherwise they will dismantle, disable or destroy it.
Gaffhook
“Vote for the Knitter not the Nitwit!”
Love your work!
Chinese reporter at NPC. We have risen in importance to China it seems
Boerwar #314 that is looking our best option. We could always wish that Abbott will be even worse than we imagine and completely stuff the country up for the next 15 years however that may be akin to cutting off our noses to spite our faces. I’m not in to self-harm.
[MSM started unhinging when it seemed Mr Rudd could campaign to help get PMJG elected.
Mr Rudd was not just campaigning for Rudd supporters.]
I don’t know why we can’t take Mr Rudd at his word.
When he campaigns, he campaigns with the full support of head office, doesn’t he?
Player One
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 1:05 pm | Permalink
I think my greatest concern is that we will have three years of treading water at a time we badly need some real reform in all the economic areas. We will just have to see what pans out.
The problem with the Noalition is that we won’t just be treading water should they win. If there is a buck in it they will sell it – otherwise they will dismantle, disable or destroy it.
——————————————————–
The Coalition have a 3D view of the world
Dismantle
Disable
Destroy
The knitting photo was Johm McTernan’s idea it seems.
What a fool he is. This is the final proof that he must bear a big
part of Labor’s looming slaughter.
Miss Havisham meets 1950s Jeparit branch of the CWA. Could
a saboteur have come up with a less helpful pic idea?
adrian
It may be not over yet. Lots on here are jumping on shadows.
@Alias/329
?
Chrissie M @ChrissieM 17m
Anyone who follows @JuliaGillard on twitter knows that she has knitted and shared projects for a long time. Everything else is bollocks.
@KnottMatthew: Here’s a sneak peek of the cover of @TheRealPBarry’s new book on the Murdochs http://t.co/Xnx9V7YpAF
[KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 12:19 pm | PERMALINK
PLAYER – Nobody’s knifing anyone. They are fully entitled to knock on her door and tell her she should go.]
Here we have it, that knocking on the door and telling someone they should go is not a knifing
Ergo, Kev07 was not knifed.
[If she doesn’t there would then have to be a spill.]
Exactly what happened in 2010. There was a spill. He didn’t turn up.
[You saying they should just sit like dummies and do nothing?]
Exactly, again. They didn’t just sit like dummies and do nothing. They did something. And Kev07 wouldn’t even let it go to a vote. And wouldn’t accept the verdict of the caucus.
And still hasn’t.
Jesus H Christ, I woke up to the shock-horror stories this morning that Julia Gillard was knitting a kangaroo for the royal birth.
Pass the smelling salts. What next in the foolishness of Gillard’s leadership.
Yes, and we were also told that Gillard’s leadership had been “crippled” for three years. That’s probably why she instigated the NDIS. She needs it for herself, the crippled leader.
If Abbott had turned up for a photo-shoot, in hi-vis vest, wrestling a lump of wood, carving a kangaroo as a pressie for the royal birth, it would have been hailed as the next best thing to the invention of the wheel.
Ah yes, perception is everything. Forget the facts.
But who provides the perception? Who force-feeds the perception on the public?
All we have today, all over the news, is that Gillard is a dope, and a woeful leader, because in her very limited spare time she knits stuff for babies.
Lambasted because she gets down and personal.
Well, bugger me.
alias
What I love is that the government at the behest of the Unions is wanting to cut back on 457 visas.
Yet the PM employs one herself in her office.
Compact Crank
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 12:52 pm | PERMALINK
Will Gillard follow Bligh’s lead and make spurious allegations, refer Abbott to Authorities, admit to having no evidence then plead for votes for the sake of democracy?
—–
Thats what the coalition has been doing since last year, and pyne tried yesterday and looks like thats all the coalition has is dirty propaganda
William or Psephos
On what date will the writs be issued?
@twobob/334
One does not equal many.
Compact crank
Why the news ltd/abbott coalition will lose by default
Zoid
Women’s weekly glam shots are NOT a good idea
They are spew, yuck, yuck triple yuck.
JUST LIKE ABBOT”S budgie smugglers!!!!
Problem with getting poms or yanks to run your advertising campaign
Two bob
12th August
http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/media_releases/2013/01-30a.htm
zoidlord
You either approve of 457 visas or you don’t.
Re the PM knitting article, one of the reader responses from Hamish was “I bet she knits a camel”. Had to laugh at that one.
“@PaulBongiorno: I did notice the Coalition is split on the Local Government referendum. Even its Leader in the senate abstained,defying Tony Abbott.”
Thanks Vic!
“@itonimichelle: Hey, here’s an idea: How about a bit of policy comparison while we wait for something to happen or not #spillfraud”
TBW
Yes the hypocrisy is breathtaking.
I am just trying to grasp what McTernan was thinking.
Is this a pitch the gray, monarchist ultra~conservative
vote? It beggars belief that this got past the stage of being
a bad idea.
TBW
Yes the hypocrisy is breathtaking.
I am just trying to grasp what McTernan was thinking.
Is this a pitch the gray, monarchist ultra~conservative
vote? It beggars belief that this got past the stage of being
a bad idea.
two bob
No worries
TBW
Yes the hypocrisy is breathtaking.
I am just trying to grasp what McTernan was thinking.
Is this a pitch the gray, monarchist ultra~conservative
vote? It beggars belief that this got past the stage of being
a bad idea.
@DTR/339
true, neither leader should done those type of things.
@twobob/341
You still need some people on visa, you can’t just can it entirely.