Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

Comments Page 6 of 28
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  1. Rudd doesn’t want to win this week. He knows if he wins he is unlikely to win th enext election.

    He is playing the long game – trying to be all Oriental Zen like – trailing his coat around for the future.

    Can anyone explain the sleeping bag stunt as anything but a stunt?

  2. Psephos
    If so, the ‘it’, whatever it is, would have to occur on Thursday morning. Rudd! has applied for leave from parliament on thursday afternoon for his trip to the land of the ratf*ckers.

  3. [Julia is taking her plane to Sydney for the service, offered Kevin and others a seat and he apparently said no]

    LOL can you imagine Julia and Rudd on a plane together… might need to send out a F/A-18 intercept

  5. CC

    Abbott has done more stunts over the past three years than anyone else in parliament. He has criss-crossed the country driving trucks, gutting fish, wielding power tools, serving pies, and so on and so forth, ad nauseam. He did this instead of developing policies.

    Enjoy your hubris while it lasts.

  6. to be perfectly honest the failure of jg and co to deal over three years with leadership situation inclusive of kevin at whatever terms necessary is a reflection on leadership generally

  8. geoffrey

    It was no failure of leadership. It was recognising political reality when you need numbers to stay in government.

    Nice try at rewriting history.

  9. [to be perfectly honest the failure of jg and co to deal over three years with leadership situation inclusive of kevin at whatever terms necessary is a reflection on leadership generally]

    What specifically should she have done differently?

  12. KEVIN ONE 7

    Yes, Shorten is safe; Conroy & Farrell are in the Senate; and they are looking after the colossus Feeney in Ferguson’s safe seat. But there will be a very large rumble after the election if nothing happens prior.

  14. guytaur

    history yet to be written (recent past as well as future)

    a rapproachment in party should have been achieved long ago

  16. “Looks like Julia ain’t going, Rudd ain’t standing”

    Well done! It’s only taken a year for the penny to drop!

    Tell bemused.

  20. 212
    Compact Crank
    [Just Me @180 – “serious econmoic penalty” – How? By what mechanism? Have you heard of the WTO?]

    If you think that once the vast majority of the world’s collective political and economic power have decided to get serious about pricing carbon and restricting CO2 emission, that they will also let us get away with not doing our share, then you are a fool.

  21. ”
    What specifically should she have done differently?

    Reigned as leader”

    She did, and continues to do so. Pay attention.

  22. [248
    victoria

    briefly

    I have now reached the stage that I would rather see Rudd own a victory or a loss.]

    I don’t blame you for that at all, victoria. He may reduce the losses to about 25 seats, leaving Labor with about 50 in the next Parliament. But the chasm between those who might support him and those who never will is very deep. I cannot see him leading a united Party. But, I suppose anything is possible.

    I think that either way, we will have no Labor members from WA in the Commonwealth Parliament for perhaps the first time since the Depression. (William might know the history…)

  23. zoomster@114


    If Rudd had left the Parliament in 2010, there would be little or no ‘disunity’. If Rudd leaves at the September election, there will be little or no ‘disunity’.

    Rudd isn’t a symptom, he’s the disease. Get rid of him and most of the perceived problems go too.

    Disclaimer: all parties need renewal and change. All parties should be doing that as a given.

    Truly hilarious stuff!

    Gillard and her backers who staged the 2010 coup are the disease.

    If Rudd had left the parliament in 2010 we would most likely have ‘enjoyed’ an Abbott Govt for the last 2.5 years.

  24. OK, so here is how it is going to work this time…Rudd will talk to Crean and urge him to nominate for the leadership. Crean will be loss-leader because his main job is to get the ballot ball rolling so that Rudd can step in to universal acclaim as the ‘compromise’ candidate dragged in reluctantly to ‘…resolve the leadership tension…’. Of course, the leaderhip tension is a bit like the universe. It comes from nothing. In return for the noble act of self-sacrifice on Crean’s part, Rudd will gift him the Deputy Prime Minister job.

    Good plan?

  26. bemused 273

    true too true – yes disease probably not too strong a word. the body politic has been wounded or infected one way or the other ever since despite its most gallant attempts to recover …. = very bad leadership

  28. [ PLAYER – Nobody’s knifing anyone. ]

    Then why is Rudd’s original fall from grace always described as Gillard “knifing” Rudd? Did you never use this term yourself? If not, you must be one of the few Ruddiots who has not, but I am happy to withdraw that comment.

    [ They are fully entitled to knock on her door and tell her she should go. If she doesn’t there would then have to be a spill. You saying they should just sit like dummies and do nothing? ]

    They are certainly “entitled” to do so. But it is not a “fundamental duty” of any description, nor should it bring on a spill. Ministers don’t need to “sit like dummies and do nothing” – there are many ways they can express their discontent. Funnily enough, they don’t seem inclined to do so.

    This whole business of “knocking on her door” is just utter nonsense perpetuated by those who can’t seem to raise the numbers, and are therefore resorting to declaring that it is all somehow the PM’s fault for not falling on her own sword.

    Why on earth would she?

  30. boerwar

    this seems no plan b

    not sure gillard or rudd are very great schemers … but then same said of obama

    and all better than the flamethrowing theocrat over the table

  34. [274
    Boerwar

    …Of course, the leaderhip tension is a bit like the universe. It comes from nothing.]

    And in the end, entropy is all that remains… dissolution and emptiness

  35. [She did, and continues to do so. Pay attention.]

    That should have read RESIGNED as leader. What a spelling mistake.

    I think we will get a post-2013 election commentary from Rudd like we did with Mark Latham.

    He’ll be telling us how Gillard destroyed the party

  36. Psephos

    [The gossip now is that the Ruddites will move on Thursday]

    As it was last week, after Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday passed with no Caucus vote.

    And the Sitting Session before that. And the Sitting etc etc etc …

    Given journos pushing it are, in the main, old stagers holding candles for the Good Old Days of being able to thwart Labor election after election until Dec 1972 (and they’ve never forgiven Whitlam for ending their influence) sharing Henderson’s & Abbott’s ideological mentor, I see current Labor destabilisation as being in the embittered We got done in Hobart in 1955 & we’ll never forgive or forget Grouper Tradition. After all, Abbott, Pyne & others are “Their Men”.

  38. Boerwar

    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    CC

    Abbott has done more stunts over the past three years than anyone else in parliament. He has criss-crossed the country driving trucks, gutting fish, wielding power tools, serving pies, and so on and so forth, ad nauseam. He did this instead of developing policies.

    Enjoy your hubris while it lasts.
    ——————————————-

    Agreed

    Any going on charity bike rides and claiming taxpayer funded travel allowance for every km he rode and taxpayer funded accommodation at every stop.

  39. [davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 12:05 pm | Permalink
    Victoria you seem to have come to face reality in the past month or so. I think it makes sense to be prepared mentally for what is to come.    ]

    A very good comment David. I have been psychologically preparing myself for some time for the wipeout that is coming. There are some people on this blog who appear to be in complete denial and they are in for a huge shock on 14 September, when reality strikes home, especially now that the party seems happy to follow JG to their mass execution.

    The thing I find hardest to accept is that not only is Labor going to lose, but because of their own stupidity, a very fine heritage – one that would have stood this country in good stead for decades to come – is going to be lost at the hands of an absolute moron, who even many of the Liberal supporters here (you for instance) don’t believe is fit to be PM.

    The one saving grace is that it is very likely it will all end in tears for him in the long run. None of his major policies will work and there is every chance, as briefly has outlined, that he will drive the Australian economy into recession. If that happens the Liberal brand will be badly damaged and his own party will dispose of him before the voters have the chance to do so.

  40. I admired the chutzpah of the Rudd supporter who was urging a ballot ‘…to resolve the leadership tension…’

    We all know by now that there is only one way to resolve the leadership tension and that is to boot Rudd out of the Party for serial gross disloyalty and for putting himself ahead of the interests of Australia.

    The Labor Party will, IMHO, have to do this eventually. Rudd gives them no choice.

  41. zoomster@167

    Huh!

    Just contacted someone Head Office referred to me as a potential volunteer — “Just cross me off the list if Rudd becomes the leader, please.”

    Well you won’t even be contacted by those not wanting Gillard as leader.

  42. We can’t say Rudd will or won’t challenge… we must all wait patiently until Friday.

    If Gillard is PM on Friday I agree she will go to the election.

    But we may well have Kevin Rudd PM on Friday.

    Certainly nothing will be happening today, it will be Thursday afternoon at the earliest Gillard could be rolled.

  43. “@SportingbetAB: @TheKouk not one single bet so far for Rudd today @sportingbetoz but plenty for Gillard. Yesteday money 70/30 in favour of Gillard.”

  45. NormanK ‏@NormanK4 52m
    Knitters of Australia Rise Up!
    We shall not be oppressed!
    #auspol pic.twitter.com/NS031eMvBL

  46. Don’t tell me that Rudd has been trailing his coat for another month with nothing to show for it but some more damage to the Labor Government?

    The guy is a gutless wrecker. The sooner the Labor Party drum him out of the team, the better.

  47. The Geek Editorial ‏@geeksrulz 3m
    A Roads Scholar showing how it’s done. Don’t come publicity stunt with me. pic.twitter.com/ErB4NGPzhU

  48. Another version of “blame the victim” and “women need to understand their place in society”:

    [
    A Christian academy in Georgia put a significant dent in a 12-year-old girl’s dream of one day earning a college football scholarship when the school’s CEO allegedly cited the Bible and middle school boys’ lustful thoughts as reasons for removing her from the team.

    Locus Grove (Ga.) Strong Rock Christian School CEO Patrick Stuart told Maddy Blythe, 12, “that men and women are created equal but different, and he said that he prayed about it and it was the wrong thing to do,” Maddy told WSB-TV. “I think it’s kind of crazy and I think it’s very archaic and he needs to get with the times.”]

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/highschool-prep-rally/christian-school-won-t-let-12-old-girl-155144963.html

    Well, this girl might as well abandon the American dream of becoming President one day. Or, in Australia’s case, of becoming PM.

  49. Will Gillard follow Bligh’s lead and make spurious allegations, refer Abbott to Authorities, admit to having no evidence then plead for votes for the sake of democracy?

  50. Marian Dalton ‏@crazyjane13 29m
    Brandis seems unable to give a speech without belittling *someone*. Just attacked Sen Milne, calling her ‘culturally ignorant’. #senate

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