Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

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  1. So, many votes parked in others. The people not wanting a change to Rudd want to vote Gillard out, and an oportunity to air their anger..hence the discrepancy. -32 is worse than the aggregate on the right. It leaves ALP with 40

  2. Nothing’s changed. There’s a lot of potential votes out there from people not voting for the ALP if a change to Rudd is made.

    I’d like to see Player1 push his QandA sample against these figures which correlate strongly with last week’s Nielsen.

    If I were Rudd, I’d not break my word. Calls to challenge are just an invitation to stoop down to the level the public perceives the Gillard team to be on. I would seriously consider Combet for treasurer, unless there is someone more capable.

    All the while, we are getting spied on by nefarious powers. If you’re preparing tenders for governments or any other business in competition with allies or income generators for the US military industrial complex, you’re a target.

    Industrial espionage has long been the realm of national spy agencies along with any political movements that are perceived as a threat to policed state rule. Terrorism is mostly just a ruse, indeed most of the terrorist incidents in the US have involved entrapment. For hard core terrorists, no amount of surveillance will work

    And Attorney General Mark Dreyfuss says requiring a warrant to spy on citizens would cause law enforcement to grind to a halt. Chilling.

    Not to mention Carr suggesting that he wouldn’t expect the US to be spying on us. For real. The US had a hand in putting us in this situation with huge divisions in the ALP. They have an interest in keeping us as allies as well as prioritising their other interests here.

    How easy is it with network analysis to find weak points in your opposition. This puts ordinary folk with ambitions of living in a free and fair society into the category of political dissident.

    At least Snowden threw a huge handful of sand in the faces of these tyrannical forces.

    I see the current ALP team as useful idiots for US imperialism, particularly with their inability to connect with the others who count. As for the Coalition, well, they sent our troops off to assist in removing any perceptions of decency towards our national spirit.

  3. [I see the current ALP team as useful idiots for US imperialism]

    Are the Opposition any different or even more likely to be compliant with the US?

  4. If anyone needed proof of the ABC’s left-wing bias, last night’s Q&A provided it.

    How come whenever the ABC needs some right-wingers on a panel to provide “balance”, they only ever put on pompous, foolish, burnt-out, compromised nitwits who have no credibility?

    They are obviously trying to present right-wing views in the worst possible light, to turn people away from the conservatives. They should try putting on some honest, intelligent, credible right-wing speakers.

    Can’t be that hard to find…

  6. Wow, so Barnaby Joyce, Christopher Pyne, Joe Hockey, George Brandis, Malcolm Turnbull and Sophie Mirabella aren’t Opposition politicians? Have you told them?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Q%26A_panelists

    I agree though, it still makes the right-wing look bad when the ABC deliberately stuffs its panels with such lousy speakers for the conservatives. They should find some good ones, there must be lots and lots out there…

  7. Al Dente

    When people like Tony Abbott repeatedly turn down invitations then you cannot blame the ABC. Or would you class him as just another ” foolish, burnt-out, compromised nitwits who have no credibility” ?

  8. Words almost fail. Now we have Julia Gillard pictured in a women’s
    magazine knitting a kangaroo for the royal baby. Yes you read right.
    This is beyond parody. This is awful. Someone in the PM’s spin office
    is obviously trying to sabotage and mock JG.

    It is not possible to even count the number of levels on which this
    is a PR calamity.

  10. Al Dente

    So you class a large part of the shadow ministry, a possible deputy PM and the likely next treasurer of Australia as
    [ pompous, foolish, burnt-out, compromised nitwits who have no credibility?” . ]
    What a vote of confidence for the Coalition.

  11. Women:

    Primary Vote: ALP 32 (-2) L/NP 44 (+1) Greens 11 (0)

    Gillard: Satisfied 32 (-4) Dissatisfied 56 (+4)

    Abbott: Satisfied 32 ( +1) Dissatisfied 56 (0)

    Preferred PM: Gillard 40 (-3) Abbott 36 (+3)

  12. Men:

    Primary Vote: ALP 28 (-3) L/NP 50 (+1) Greens 9 (0)

    Gillard: Satisfied 26 (-4) Disatisfied 65 (+5)

    Abbott: Satisfied 40 (+3) Disatisfied 50 (-4)

    Better PM: Gillard 32 (-5) Abbott 47 (+3)

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Well well. Mr Junior Pinstripe is backpedalling on Ruddstoration.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-push-out-of-puff-gillard-going-nowhere-20130624-2oswx.html
    Good luck Boof. It will be a difficult gig with that cattle and the mental condition they are in!
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cricket/we-can-win-the-ashes-lehmann-20130625-2otby.html
    What a surprise! The only thong missing if to disclose want Coles – and others – pay for certain items and to compare that with what they sell them for.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/coles-accused-of-underpaying-bangladeshis-20130624-2osnb.html
    Oh dear!
    http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/i-took-banned-drug-watson-20130624-2ota0.html

  14. Section 2 . . .

    Who gives a sh*t?
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/the-block-couple-expecting-twitter-tirade-20130624-2osy8.html
    One could be forgiven for wondering whether this witness has links to the “Catholic mafia”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/police-whistleblower-accused-of-relying-on-lies-20130624-2osb1.html
    And it’s not just this policy either!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/climate-change-abbott-must-get-off-the-fence-20130624-2osom.html
    Lenore Taylor lays it all out on what would need to happen for Ruddstoration to occur.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/24/labor-leadership-what-happens-next
    Alan Moir has had enough of Rudd’s continuous crap.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    One from Cathy Wilcox on Sydney cyclists’ woes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    David Pope conflates Australian cricket with politics.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Pat Campbell thinks it’s all just theatre.
    Some great work here from David Rowe with Nelson Manf=della as the super moon.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  19. The polls have been so abysmal for Julia Gillard for so long
    that we tend to become inured to their awfulness and what
    they mean. But reading over those Newspoll quarterly
    gender breakdown figures the horror is made disturbingly
    fresh.

  20. Of Course newsltd and pro coalition media arent going to have polls to favour gillard

    Abbott is unhinging because news ltd and pro coalition media hasnt put him into government , he told everyone he would be in government by the end of 2011

  22. Newsltd/abbott coalition wants Gillard gone because it will be the same case in 2010

    Newsltd/abbott coalition have not change their tact, dirt & propaganda all they have to offer people

    election time Abbott will be sharing drinks with hewson , both have the same thing to talk about

    they were leading the fantasy polls but when in reality they never got to be the pm

  23. Talc answering a question ‘Has Rudd stalled?”.

    Talc: WWTE Why ask me? Ask Joel Fitzgibbon or someone like that.

    :LOL:

  24. The polls tell us that Turnbull is more popular in the electorate than Abbott, but no-one is calling for Abbott to stand aside. Not interested? Doesn’t suit the MSM agenda???

  25. record of newsltd/abbott failure to unseat Gillard as pm

    August 2010
    September 2010
    October 2010
    November 2010
    December 2010
    January 2011
    February 2011
    March 2011
    April 2011
    May 2011
    June 2011
    July 2011
    August 2011
    September 2011
    October 2011
    November 2011
    December 2011
    January 2012
    February 2012
    March 2012
    April 2012
    May 2012
    June 2012
    July 2012
    August 2012
    September 2012
    October 2012
    November 2012
    December 2012
    January 2013
    February 2013
    March 2013
    April 2013
    May 2013
    June 2013

    And looking at the picture its like a rollercoaster ride up and down

    and ironically a rise happens around the election campaign

  26. [SID MAHER, POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT From: The Australian June 25, 2013 12:00AM
    Increase Text Size
    Decrease Text Size
    Print

    KEVIN Rudd has booked an international flight to China on Thursday afternoon to speak at a conference in Beijing on Friday in a move that could bring forward the deadline to resolve Labor’s leadership crisis before parliament rises.

    As Mr Rudd’s supporters moved to shift the blame for Labor’s leadership crisis to Julia Gillard’s ministerial backers, accusing them of fanning disunity and speculation by continually talking about a challenge, The Australian learned that Mr Rudd had sought leave to be absent from parliament on Thursday afternoon to allow him to fly to Beijing to deliver a keynote address at the Third Global Think Tank Summit.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kevin-rudds-china-trip-may-bring-on-showdown/story-fn59niix-1226669020834

    What is you put all this effort into a momentous event, a coronation even, with the nation’s media salivating over every syllable, and the guest of honour said something like “gotta zip to preach to the Ratfuckers**”.

    ** a term the Chinese comrades have difficulty understanding, which required Kevin to constantly go there and remind them of his intellect.

  29. The biggest subversion to democracy has been the blatant failure of our mainstream media to present an accurate and fairly balanced critique of the achievements of this Parliament and of the policy platforms of the major parties.

    The media constantly ask why ‘the message is not getting through’ and then steadfastly refuse to ask Labor relevant policy questions or hold the LNP to account for their policy detail.

  30. Morning

    PMJG will be attending the memorial service for Hazel Hawke today, and Rudd is off to China on Thursday afternoon.
    Not much opportunity for Ruddstoration this week

  31. Morning All

    Biggest issue today imo is how on earth could Jobe Watson take the field on Thursday night after admitting to taking a banned substance last season – surely the AFL has to step in

    New coach for the cricketers can only help, Darren was a great player and will pull the players into line – bring on the Poms 🙂

    As to the leadership – Congrats to Julia, she has held on again

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-push-out-of-puff-gillard-going-nowhere-20130624-2oswx.html

    Rudd won’t challenge, she won’t step down – he is leaving the country – my advice, if he can’t back the team 100%, and pull his backers into line as well, he shouldn’t come back from China until after the election.

    Well done Julia, taking on the opposition, the media and your own party to serve the full term – anyone that thinks the election is over this far out is mad, she can and will beat Abbott

  32. If Rudd is off th China on Thursday seems like it is just about all over red rover.

    Combet’s entry yesterday seems to have been the last straw. Now the leaks about his wanting Treasurer come out.

    Possibly in 2011 Rudd forces made a tactical error on this. Combet would have been a great Treasurer.

    BUT you MUST understand the problems for the Rudd forces. The battle lines between the Combet left in NSW and the softer right (Bowen and co) are very, very bitter, so it would have been Bowen or Combet and this was probably an irreconcilable issue for the Rudd forces.

    Now personally I would prefer Combet by a country mile but given that Bowen had been a long standing Rudd loyalist it would have been pretty shitty to dump him.

  33. And now the MSM and Liberals show their hate for Gillard – because she knits??
    They are getting more and more pathetic

  34. Morning all.

    [Talc answering a question ‘Has Rudd stalled?”.

    Talc: WWTE Why ask me? Ask Joel Fitzgibbon or someone like that.]

    Yes, it’s so easy for the Liberals isn’t it? Thanks Joel, thanks Kev, thanks R*dd claque. You’ve been the best friends the Liberals have had.

  36. [A court in Milan has handed down a harsh sentence to former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi after finding him guilty of soliciting sex from a minor and abusing his position to cover up the affair.

    Judges in charge of the so-called “bunga bunga” trial sentenced him to seven years in prison – one more than what had been sought by the prosecution – and hit him with a lifetime ban on holding public office. However, the ruling will not be enforced until appeal proceedings are exhausted.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/17733367/ex-italy-pm-berlusconi-faces-7-years-jail/

    Will he even see a day behind bars?

  37. confessions

    [Will he even see a day behind bars?]
    Apparently in Italy people over 75 can serve out their time under house arrest. Although for Silvio it will be palazzo arrest. Before that stage I am sure there will be many years taken up with appeals.

  39. [Christopher Pyne held a media conference Monday morning as well and had a crack at talking about the Liberal Party’s education policy. The first question he was asked when he finished? What did he think about Kevin Rudd’s leadership chances.

    The second question he was asked was what happened to the rat that bit him during a charity sleep-out on the weekend. He quipped it died of bubonic plague. The third question to Christopher Pyne was from an excited journalist, thinking he had the scoop of the week, seriously asking if Pyne now had bubonic plague as well. Pyne had to point out it was a joke.

    Oh yes, and questions on the education policy Pyne had spoken about? Zero.

    Ladies and gentlemen, this is your Canberra press gallery.]
    http://thehoopla.com.au/politics-dumbing-begun/

    An excellent read.

  40. Rudd goling to China Thursday is entirely consistent with what he has
    said all along: draft me unopposed or take full ownership of the
    devastating defeat that is coming your way under JG.

  42. I understand from their ABC that the backbench are keen for a change, reality having sunk through, will reality shine next in the cabinet or PB first?

  43. A list of 40 bills the real R-W in the UK Parliament would like to introduce (lots of these are just like some ‘measures’ members of our Opposition have suggested):

    They’ll want to bring back hanging next: What right-wing lunacy is there inside the Tory rebels’ ‘Alternative Queen’s Speech’?

    Banning burkas, introducing ‘Thatcher Day’, privatising the BBC and, yes, even reintroducing the death penalty, the Tory right-wing rebels’ ‘Alternative Queen’s Speech’ was as laughable as it was chilling

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theyll-want-to-bring-back-hanging-next-what-rightwing-lunacy-is-there-inside-the-tory-rebels-alternative-queens-speech-8672008.html

  44. Good morning, Dawn Patrol, from T’mba (effective temp sub-zero). Howling SWesterly, prob sleet, maybe snow on Granite Belt. I’m bathed, dressed & back under a nice new down doona – oh how I love my laptop! Cat is adhered to my little heater.

    In a week’s time – if Leadershite continues to be journos & Tories howling at the wind – legislation already/ soon to be enacted, will become law; including Gonski and the MRRT.

    Never get between an Aussie Voter & a bucket of money is said to be an Aussie adage.

    If there’s been no change in the Government, 1 July rings in several – if not “Buckets” at least “kiddy pails” – of money, inc increased superannuation.

    If you’ve been watching QT lately, you know that ripping (X amount of) money off working Australians will be to Election13 what Workchoices was to 2007’s.

    The biggest factor in Aussie voting is the “Hip Pocket Nerve” is another adage.

  45. [Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 6m
    Christ, when a photo for women’s weekly has people hating on the PM, you know they really do just hate her regardless of what she does]

  47. [Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 6m
    Christ, when a photo for women’s weekly has people hating on the PM, you know they really do just hate her regardless of what she does]

    I am sure Greg is right, it is very unfair, but I don’t see how that should protect her.

  48. Interesting question as to why the right-wingers who appear on TV programs for “balance” typically say such stupid stuff. (Not that they are the only ones, mind you: shows like the Drum also feature a range of Green pollies and assorted bleeding hearts like Jane Caro, who also say plenty of BS, at least IMO.)

    The real problem underpinning this phenomenon is the state of the modern Liberal Party. Once upon a time, the Libs ( and before them, the UAP) were the party of rent seekers, especially in the manufacturing sector. They were also social conservatives, but mostly in a luke warm rather then an aggressive way (at a time, unlike now, when the majority of Australians were socially conservative).

    From the late 1960s through to the 1990s – first under Gorton and later Fraser – the Libs abandoned much of their social conservatism. And then, for one brief shining moment under Howard, they abandoned rent-seeking and embraced the free market.

    Now, under Abbott -whose faith in the free market is probably somewhat less that they of Dougie Cameron – they are drifting back to full rent-seeking mode. And a rising, nasty , zealously God- botherjng strain of social conservatism is now in the forefront.

    So for someone intelligent and right-wing, who believes in human freedom, open markets and (in line with Burkean principles) that humans have a responsibility of stewardship over social structures and the natural environment, the modern Liberal Party offers more or less zilch.

    Back before the 1980s, when a high proportion of Labor MPs continued to embrace the evil cult of socialism, there was a reason for right-wing intellectuals to support the Libs, even though they were most unsatisfactory in many respects. That reason went away in the 1980s under Hawke and Keating: who did more for the free market in Australia than anyone before them.

    Then Howard came on the scene. He was a social conservative, sure, but an old-fashioned moderate sort of one (leading him to do some good things, eg: gun control). And, he enthusiastically carried on the Hawke-Kesting economic agenda (including the GST, which they had discarded for political reasons).

    Howard brought some intellectual right-wing people back into the Liberal fold. But it is now clear that he was basically a one-off, and the Libs are drifting back to become a worse version of their former selves (ie: the same old rent-seeking crap, with added social conservatism).

    So, in short, if you are a right-wing person with a brain in 2013, you back Labor. Judith Sloan is an intelligent woman who makes sense when talking about broader economic stuff, but when she starts attacking the Government from a Liberal Party perspective, you can literally see her brain turn itself off and she starts getting a sort of schoolgirl taunt in her voice. She doesn’t really have any intellectual reason for supporting the Libs under Abbott because, given what she thinks on most broader issues, she’s really closer to Gillard. So all she has left is a mindless bias which makes her come across as an idiot.

    It’s the way things are on the right side of the fence in 2013.

  49. I wonder why Innes Willox doesn’t get more of a run on these shows
    as a right wing voice. He is smart, articulate and with sensibly
    moderate views.

  50. It’s official

    Gillard has been knitting for the Liberals for some time lol..

    What on earth are the OPM thinking and handing such Gifts to the Libs.

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