Two new poll findings to start the day with:
• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.
• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.
OPT – Canberra is a balmy 9.6c this morning! Rain yesterday.
[T’mba]
When you use this abbreviation I think of Talimba.
Someone mentioned changes of staff in the PM’s office after this week – surely has to happen. Julia gets way too much bad advice
It’s simple – Be Yourself
Bye bye Kevin
Off to work, have a great day all
Gareth Evans on Labor’s plight.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-australian-labor-party-marches-into-oblivion-by-gareth-evans
Raising from their bed, teddy and security blanket under-arm, thumb firmly ensconsed in mouth with other hand busy twirling belly-button, the LNP./Ruddista toddlers pontificate with mumbling certainties that end of all Labor as we know it …unless!!!?
I am assuming this is the Caucus meeting today.
[Prime Minister Julia Gillard is set to face a divided caucus but the centre of all the Labor leadership rumours, Kevin Rudd, won’t be there.]
From The West.
KBonham
“It’s unsubstantiated bat guano that bears no relationship to the post it was motivated by, or to reality in any form, and that was motivated by personal spite.”
NEWSPoll described perfectly.
Julia Gillard won’t be there either, I thought?
[Sarah Harris @SarahHarrisNews 8m
@GrogsGamut Rubbish. Of course feminists can knit. But this shows poor political strategy on her team’s part this close to an election.
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 6m
@SarahHarrisNews I look forward to you equally dissing every Tony Abbott bullsh*t family portrait puff piece “this close to an election”.]
Sarah Harris is with Ch9 news.
mb
Your analysis of Sloan is excellent, except for the bit where you claim ‘she talks sense talking about broader economic stuff’. She would have been one of the ones ensuring that Australia went into recession during the GFC, had she had her way.
As a political commentator she is an arrogant, smarmy shocker. It was very nice to see Jones hoist her on her petard of ‘dim-witted childcare workers’. Her body language at the end of the show was that of a bully deflated.
Radguy
[ I’d like to see Player1 push his QandA sample against these figures which correlate strongly with last week’s Nielsen. ]
No they don’t. Nielsen did not address the issue under discussion. I will recap for you the polling that actually did.
First, we are not talking about “Preferred PM”, or “2PP vote” we are talking about “Should the ALP change leaders”
Here are the “official” polling numbers from a week or so ago:
Total yes=34, no=52
Labor yes=32, no=60
Liberal yes=33, no=51
Pretty consistent, aren’t they? Here are the “Q&A” polling numbers (which can’t be broken down by party unfortunately, since they didn’t ask that):
Total yes=5%, no=95%
I accept that the questions were not identical, but they were both effectively asking “Do you think there should be a change of leader of the ALP before the election”. My contention is that these figures strongly indicate that there is no mood for a change of leadership no matter how the question is asked.
The polls show it. he Q&A audience shows it. I am amazed at the size of the discrepancy, but not at the outcome – they are consistent in that.
You can spin it how you like. There seems to be little mood for change outside the fevered brains of the media and the Ruddiots here on PB.
Meanwhile, back in the Real World – beyond Leadershite & heavy CPG face egging – where good journos are literate, balanced and investigative, USA Unhinging revives The Scarlet Pimpernel (They seek him here, They seek him there) Edward Snowden leaves reporters chasing shadows around an airport: US whistleblower’s rumoured arrival then non-departure from Russia leaves many in Moscow asking: was he ever even here?
Young Ed.S should make a motza from book & film rights! And good for him. After reactions to Conroy’s Internet filter, we know most Internet-using Aussies will be outraged by USA & UK “security’s” accessing of their data.
Given US agencies like CIA & FBI, before 9/11, ignored evidence that suspicious MidEast people were taking flying lessons etc; and again failed to follow up even strong official Russian warnings about the young men who bombed the NY Marathon, one never knows just what the USA’s Keystone Spy Agencies could do with data.
confessions
PMJG and KRudd will be in Sydney today for the Hazel Hawke memorial.
As far as I understand the state of play. Based on all the available polling over a period of time, it would appear that at this point in time Labor would lose approximately 35/40 seats. I believe the polls will tighten between now and election. Probably still on track to lose at least 20 seats.
Rudd will assume the leadership if he gets full support from caucus.. Will the party get spooked for fear of a wipeout, and do this? That remains to be seen.
The French Left have not given up on seeing Sarkozy ‘off’:
[French police on Monday questioned business tycoon Bernard Tapie (pictured) in connection with a fraud investigation involving ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy and former finance minister Christine Lagarde, who now heads the IMF. ]
http://www.france24.com/en/20130624-france-tapie-police-fraud-investigation-sarkozy-lagarde
‘fess
[Our media’s preoccupation with trivia – and collective lack of conscience – is impressive even by British tabloid standards.]
Great line by Gareth.
Abbott can run around in budgie smugglers and lycra. Doing bike rides for charity while claiming travel allowances for the distance he rides his bike for “charity” and claiming accommodation allowances for the hotels he stays in during the “charity” ride.
And the big news that has the MSM and Liberals frothing at the mouth – Gillard knits…
victoria:
We will find out hopefully soon. This wretched leadershit focus is just so damaging to the govt. It has to end.
confessions
You never know, the change of leadershiip might very well occur before the writs are issued. Much like what occurred with Hayden and Hawke. Of course, they were in opposition at the time, and Fraser just happened to call a snap election at the very same time Hayden resigned and Hawke elected as leader.
[Sarah Harris @SarahHarrisNews 8m
@GrogsGamut Rubbish. Of course feminists can knit. But this shows poor political strategy on her team’s part this close to an election.
Greg Jericho @GrogsGamut 6m
@SarahHarrisNews I look forward to you equally dissing every Tony Abbott bullsh*t family portrait puff piece “this close to an election”.
Sarah Harris is with Ch9 news.]
At one time channel 9 and the Women’s Weekly were part of the same organisation under Packer. If that is still the case then Ms Harris will face company discipline for criticising an editorial decision by her employer.
In any case the decision to place the PM’s photo on the front cover of the WW was taken by the publishers, not the PM’s office.
Remember what demographic reads the WW.
I don’t believe there will be a change of leader. All sides seem to have locked themselves into very fixed positions where if they do change leaders they will just end up looking even more foolish. Labor need to knuckle down and save as many seats as possible by acting more like a government and less like a rabble.
Julia is taking her plane to Sydney for the service, offered Kevin and others a seat and he apparently said no
womble
According to whom?
[We will find out hopefully soon. This wretched leadershit focus is just so damaging to the govt. It has to end.
]
Yes and the only way it can end is for Gillard to walk on Friday night. Swan should go too and perhaps a couple of others. Paul Howes should never be seen or heard ever again.
[Yes and the only way it can end is for Gillard to walk on Friday night. Swan should go too and perhaps a couple of others. Paul Howes should never be seen or heard ever again.]
Except it won’t happen IMO particularly the last part.
[Except it won’t happen IMO particularly the last part.
]
Sadly I think you are right.
Morning all. At this point I agree any leadership change in Labor is not going to happen, or not in a way that wuld help Labor. Both sides (of Labor) are entrenched and unable to work together. Electorally, thisis a fatal outcome IMO.
Even if Rudd gained power now, it would reduce the losses but he would be too compromised to prevent a win. So why do I still prefer Rudd? because he was less incompetent than his successors, and woudl probably have stopped Abbott gaining the senate. Now Abbott will win and gain the Senate, and all Labor reforms except the NDIS, can be lkissed gooodbye.
Have a good day all; off to do some work.
The Geek Editorial @geeksrulz 5m
The papers that gave you this fluff, criticises other fluff. Fluff reporting from a fluff industry in decay #auspol pic.twitter.com/ERY8LyXoCM
but don’t you dare have a pic of Gillard knitting….that’s just not right….haha
One final comment – Harry Jenkins speech last night was great, and injected some much needed humour. He will be missed.
[Even if Rudd gained power now, it would reduce the losses but he would be too compromised to prevent a win. So why do I still prefer Rudd? because he was less incompetent than his successors, and woudl probably have stopped Abbott gaining the senate. Now Abbott will win and gain the Senate, and all Labor reforms except the NDIS, can be lkissed gooodbye.
]
The NDIS will die too – no way a liberal party with control of both houses will support it. Probably massively underfund it – defer it – let it die quietly – which ironically is the same plan they have for all pensioners – they vote labor anyway
“Julia is taking her plane to Sydney for the service, offered Kevin and others a seat and he apparently said no”
Scared the AirForce lady will put harpic in his coffee?
👿 👿
why the Gillard government will likely be retain
The alternative is offering nothing different to 2010 which is smear and fear, and not ready to govern
Media opinion polls propaganda will likely be exposed when the one and only real poll is decided in favour of labor
Victoria, not sure was reported today though
[T’mba
When you use this abbreviation I think of Talimba.]
Ah, Ctar. “Tmba” or “T’mba” has been Toowoomba’s PO-approved abbreviation at least since 1903 😉 (I have my Nana’s & her S-i-L’s preWW1 post card collections & it’s used on them). I believe it & many other official abbreviations were originally Telegraph/gram abbreviations, from eras when “letter counts”, much later “word counts” determined cost.
mba usually indicates a place’s indigenous name, so frequent Oz town/ suburb suffix. If a town/ suburb was settled in the “Telegram Era”, and has a longish name (eg 9 letter Toowoomba; 7 letter Bulimba), there should be an official short form – usually without the apostrophe, which counted as an extra letter.
BTW: most of the Post Cards, written when there were almost no home phones, are Edwardian equivalents of today’s SMS texts: eg “Saturday, I’ll catch the 12.30 train from Central Station” with replies like “Pat will meet you at the station” (often with “in the sulky” added).
I confess to watching a few minutes of Q&A. last night till the moment T. Jones asked Anne Summers DIRECTLY to respond to a question and just when she started to work into it, he cut her off with “I’d like to bring the other member of the panel into this..and we have another question from the audience on this topic.”……I mean!..really!..is the guy a jerkoff or what!?
That’s when I walked out of the room.
Seriously..what I want to see is Rudd AND all the white-anters INCL’ those advisers like Hawker…totally thrown out of the Labor party and their seats thrown open for new candidates.
Mark Scott sacked for incompetence from the ABC. and replaced with an apolitical CEO.
The press gallery passes being revoked for incompetence in reporting ANY policy and all names with a majority of Fifth Estate journo’s being thrown into a hat and redrawn and re-issued to the press-gallery.
Murdoch being declared a “Persona non grata” for interfering in and attempting to pervert the natural course of elections in Aust’ and all communication with his companies banned.
Oh!…and if someone can bring a couple of charges to get Brandis’ ugly puss banned from our screens for many years..that would be a blessing!
there is nothing to suggest otherwise
People of Australia
are having fun with news ltd/abbott coalition biased polls
and the real election is heading similar to 2010 , and the same result with news ltd/abbott coalition crying they missed out on governing
I got no doubt , this would be better then winning lotto
is watching Newsltd/Abbott coalition in a repeat of 2010
Because nothing has changed with them
They have nothing but a dirty propaganda campaign the only difference it
Newsltd and pro coalition media do not want Abbott in the public spotlight for more then 20 seconds
Joe Hockey not ruling out further economic stimulus http://embedle.com/e/9FaBD2Ddg#..http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/24/joe-hockey-economic-stimulus-coalition …
The more air time Abbott gets
The bigger the lost the news ltd/abbott coalition will lose on election day
This is particularly prescient from Gareth Evans:
The last rule is that one should never trash the brand. Those who mounted the coup against Rudd three years ago felt it necessary to explain that it was because his government was, beneath the surface, a dysfunctional mess. The public hadn’t actually noticed that at the time, but has been prepared to believe it ever since. The tragedy is that both Rudd and Gillard are superbly capable and have complementary skill sets; working together effectively, they were as good as it gets in Australian politics.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-australian-labor-party-marches-into-oblivion-by-gareth-evans#vSowzIqstWe5BtuV.99
Does anyone in Australia, other than Meguire Bob, think the ALP can win the next election?
Yeah I do lynchpin.
[ Does anyone in Australia, other than Meguire Bob, think the ALP can win the next election? ]
Is it possible. Yes.
Is it likely. No.
What will make the difference? If Abbott comes under any scrutiny at all he will lose. MB is quite right about that.
Which is of course why the media is concentrating on leadershit.
Look at the poll numbers 3 months out from the 1998 election, Howard less popular than Gillard, an opposition offering wind back and not much else. Add the high other and greens this time and is far from over imo
[Yeah I do lynchpin.]
How? It seems impossible to me.
[Does anyone in Australia, other than Meguire Bob, think the ALP can win the next election?
]
No
Thanks for the optimism. This is a horror two weeks. A nightmare that seemingly won’t end. Currently I feel embarrassed for the ALP. It makes getting out there handing out how to votes bloody difficult.
lynchpin
The opinion polls arent any resemblance of reality, they are based on what the media agenda wants
Thats how
nothing is impossible lynchpin.
Labor needs to deal with the Rudd issue once and for all this week (again). Lance the Rudd boil, again, and move quickly on.
Then it has to be unity, unity, unity all the way through.
Labor has a good record of achievement, it needs to be totally focused on communicating this message.
Lynchpin
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 9:58 am | Permalink
Does anyone in Australia, other than Meguire Bob, think the ALP can win the next election?
——————————————————
I have hope that they can win.
I think the debates will be a turning point and hope once the public see Abbott muddling his way through policy there will be a swing to Labor.
If Abbott does the same as what we see when he is fronted by the media, walk away, stand there nodding his head with a stupid look on his face it will swing voters. He will not be able to get away with the one line popularist rants like he does at ‘doorstop’ interviews people will be looking for some depth, but Abbott has about as much depth as a car park puddle.
The next time there could be a swing towards Labor is when the Liberals release their costings. They will need to be accurate and have no ‘black holes’.
If the media was made not to influence or forced the opinion polling companies to follow the media biased
Opinion polls would be different
Opinion polling companies would not be asking propaganda questions
Why would Abbott participate in a debate?