Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. BB, you posts are tedious and have not armed Gillard in the slightest.

    Sure, we’re not metrics as individuals, but it will be metrics that decide the result.

    You have nothing left that will convince swinging voters to support Gillard.

  2. SO..I am not sure if I hate Rudd. I doubt it. I have experienced personal betrayal of a very grave nature and still do not hate those villains. I don’t hate Rudd. I just think he is toxic for Labor and should leave the Parliament.

  3. [Treachery cannot be condoned in politics. It has to be met with expulsion…sorry…just the way it’s always been.]

    I imagine you saying with a smoking gun held in your hand.

    Seriously “that’s how it always has been” is not an excuse, especially for a political party. Parties move with the times or they go extinct. Political Darwinism.

  4. ShowsOn@1500

    Treachery cannot be condoned in politics. It has to be met with expulsion…sorry…just the way it’s always been.


    So Julia Gillard should be expelled for failing to support Kevin Rudd.

    Just taking your idiocy to its illogical conclusion.

    Errr, that’s not the logical conclusion, which is that more than half of caucus should be expelled :D.

  5. [Carey, I suggest you watch that Q&A segment. Out of the whole audience, I think less about 5% wanted Gillard to step down.

    Tony Jones was obviously flabbergasted.
    ]

    That’s because 100% of Libs and 50% of Labor supporters, especially the diehards who would waste an evening of their life in the QANDA audience, don’t want Gillard to step down.

    I haven’t meg a single Lib who wants her out.

  6. [SO..I am not sure if I hate Rudd. I doubt it. I have experienced personal betrayal of a very grave nature and still do not hate those villains. I don’t hate Rudd. I just think he is toxic for Labor and should leave the Parliament.]
    Nice backtracking. You have repeatedly said he should be expelled from the Labor Party.

    If Labor did that they would be lucky to have a primary vote over 20%.

  7. [1503
    Radguy

    If he were toxic for Labor Briefly, he would not get a 50:50 result in any poll.]

    This only serves to show that the division and dysfunction inside Labor is terminal. They are not fit to govern while in this state, and will be thrown out of office. Since they are unable to resolve the tensions that divide and paralyze them, Labor will be deprived of power until they show they can be trusted to exercise it carefully. This is completely inexorable now.

  8. I don’t buy into the argument that Rudd is a cure-all for Labor’s problems, nor that he will certainly win the election, nor that everybody supporting a leadership change do so because they love him.

    What I am saying is people don’t like Gillard. They don’t think she can win. And they are right. At this point, this is pragmatism.

    And, if over the next week or so, Rudd says he’s not interested, Labor should look for someone else. Anybody. Probably won’t do much but “Anybody But Gillard” is probably the most popular candidate in Australia right now.

  9. DN

    [Treachery cannot be condoned in politics. It has to be met with expulsion…sorry…just the way it’s always been.
    ]

    Actually if taken to its logical conclusion there would barely be any party members.

  10. Shows

    Nice backtracking. You have repeatedly said he should be expelled from the Labor Party.

    Too much throwing of the word “hate” around :P. Emotion doesn’t have to come into it, you know.

  11. [1507
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    SO..I am not sure if I hate Rudd. I doubt it. I have experienced personal betrayal of a very grave nature and still do not hate those villains. I don’t hate Rudd. I just think he is toxic for Labor and should leave the Parliament.

    Nice backtracking. You have repeatedly said he should be expelled from the Labor Party.

    If Labor did that they would be lucky to have a primary vote over 20%.]

    I haven’t backtracked…merely defended myself against allegations of “hatred”. Do you hate Gillard, merely because you oppose her?

  12. To those who are upset about Rudd being a “traitor”, especially in regards to strategic leaking: what do you call all that feeding of journalists that Rudd was going to be rolled in the few weeks prior to it happening?

  13. [1509
    Carey Moore
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 1:15 am | Permalink]

    Sad to say, there is no 3rd candidate…no clean-skin to come to the rescue. Labor will go down fighting…among themselves.

  14. Tchhh. Just looked in. Will look at the QnotA segment now.

    Must say that Saturday Age’s misguided attempt to influence party politics brought a huge amount of pro Gillard comment.

    Sentiment was amazing given the poll poll poll stuff.

  15. Bushfire Bill@1494

    Also, re the other polling, it’s not true 60% or so are against leadership change. That poll specifically canvassed the idea of Gillard stepping down. Some people may support change but believe Rudd should be made to challenge for it.


    I know what it is that annoys me personally about poll driven analysis like this.

    It discounts humanity and allows no room for persuasion or argument.

    We are not metrics Kevin, no matter how often your spreadsheets tell you we are.

    I know what it is that would annoy me personally about a post like this if it was worth getting lastingly annoyed about.

    It’s unsubstantiated bat guano that bears no relationship to the post it was motivated by, or to reality in any form, and that was motivated by personal spite.

    BB, here’s some humanity for you: I have now completely lost all respect for you and regard you as a pointless soliloquiser allergic to all countervailing facts. My spreadsheet tells me I’ll change this assertion when you apologise for #1494 and get off my case, or else in about 9.5 of your standard earth years, 😉

  16. Cm @ 1514…see, I am one of the very very few who actually called for Rudd to either reform the RSPT or be replaced. I could not believe what was happening…just could not believe any of it. So I was astonished but relieved when he was sacked.

  17. 5AA was on whilst I typed. Some caller was expounding. I did not pay attention.

    What I DID just hear host say at the end, was, ‘mmh, maybe Labor does have a chance’.

    Echoing my thoughts of last night.

  18. As for the third party candidate. Give it to Smith. He’s a safe pair of hands who’ll be able to claw back some of the voters lost and make the loss a bit more respectable and give the next opposition leader something to work with.

    Making him PM for a couple of months would be a nice cap to his career (there’s no way he’d make it to PM on his own)

  19. Frank…yes, that was amusing in its own way. I’m glad to have your favourable opinion, CM. I have the same regard for you.

  20. Briefly, Hi.

    Loins girded. I agree with you that a trillion (well, slight exaggeration) stupidities have happened.

    Just don’t want the good and potential good undone. Won’t go on.

    Deep breath. TV.

  21. CM, Stephen could do it, and would do it if asked. While he has been given some serious positions in the Cabinet, he has been outside the group of most powerful figures ever since Beazley was defeated. He was always keen on Kim, and lost when Kim lost.

    So he would not be likely to be chosen even if a 3rd candidate was being considered. It is a sad reflection on the party, but they seem immobilized by their past errors and their differences.

  22. [1524
    Radguy
    Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 1:30 am | Permalink

    So you support the miners pricing our minerals Briefly?]

    Well, mineral prices are not set by miners but by competition among buyers and suppliers.

    I support the taxation of resources, but the RSPT was flawed. It exposed taxpayers to big potential losses and would have been a nightmare to run. It had other problems too. What alienated me from Rudd was his willingness to use a lousy policy to advantage himself at the expense of his colleagues in WA. That was unforgivable for mine.

  23. Big potential losses? That’s crap. We don’t share losses with business unless they’re deemed too big to fail. We have revenue drops, but that is not a loss. As for shafting “Western Australians”, when they throw around political advertising campaigns that other businesses can’t afford to do, I think there is a massive imbalance in the representation of population segments. I shouldn’t need to explain to a leftish type person that this wealth imbalance is not healthy.

  24. So miners writing a government policy where there needs to be a split of the market rate is not allowing miners to price our resources?

  25. Stephen Smith will not bring over the blokes in vast numbers and now you guys have a base of feminists.

    The blokes will know that the “anything but Rudd” card has been played and the feminists will get narcky.

    Not a good option.

    Nothing will stop the feminists from getting narcky, particularly Abbott.

    The people operating the mechanism that got us into this mess are the ones who need to take responsibility and be stripped of their stranglehold over caucus through their branch stacking and patronage requirements.

    They are enemy number one. Their banishment is the only prospect the ALP have to recover in the polls.

  26. But then again, of course a Liberal government will enthuse more people to join unions.

    So there we have it. Corporations have to look after themselves and their union members now. They are the same now, just fighting over the pie.

    Where does that leave outsiders? F**king broke and unrepresented.

  27. QnotA. Just got to Richardson dissing Shorten. I have no brief for either. Though much less for Richardson.

    However.

    Totally revealing. Richardson is pissed at his usurpation as ‘king maker’. Richardson is looking rather less than glam.

    Comments are interesting, as was said.

  28. Somehow I get the feeling that Radguy and Briefly are not speaking the same language, even though they’re apparently conversing with each other :D.

  29. Judith Sloane. Inflammatory words. ‘Knifing’

    I seem to recall that Gillard was astonished and taken aback that it was Rudd who was ‘counting the numbers’. Against her and as if she were contemplating. Which she was not. Until.

  30. Briefly. It IS worth watching. Anne Summers and a young woman.
    Great change from dead heart Richardson. Brandis, yuk.
    Matt Thistletwhaite, excellent.

    I will resume watching tomorrow.

    Goodnight all.

  31. Crikey just in for 10 minutes before going out again for dinner. Had a great time on Guernsey

    Zoidlord off to Edinburgh tomorrow to see the Scottish/Aussie grandsons

  32. Have people seen this?

    http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/joe-hockeys-tough-stand-toe-the-official-party-line-or-else/story-e6frfkp9-1226656522066#ixzz2VBbeVwUI

    Some excerpts:

    [SHADOW Treasurer Joe Hockey has issued a gag order on Coalition MPs and candidates talking to the Parliamentary Budget Office over fears that new laws will expose the Coalition to greater scrutiny]

    [The letter follows an outbreak of dissent within the party room over the decision to abandon the baby bonus and rebellion over Mr Abbott’s insistence on keeping the high cost paid parental leave scheme.]

    OooH, dear me ….”outbreak of dissent within the party room” …..”rebellion over Mr Abbott’s insistence.”

    Tsk, Tsk.

  33. [Anybody But Gillard” is probably the most popular candidate in Australia right now.]

    Love it when the ‘pragmatists’ who are ‘guided by the polls’ come out with this.

    There have been numerous polls on ‘preferred Leader’ ‘best person to lead the Labor party’ etc etc.

    On one hand, we’re to believe that the polling is accurate and that therefore Labor can’t win the election with Gillard.

    Fair enough.

    But none of these polls show that any leader other than Rudd would. Very few of the alternatives rate in double figures.

    Now, the argument might be that remove Rudd and Gillard from the equation and the whole thing changes. That’s fair enough.

    But – if we’re arguing on the basis of polling – there’s absolutely no evidence that ‘anyone but Gillard’ would improve Labor’s chances.

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