Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 31
1 2 31
  1. Yes, this is as expected alright. Ever since June 2010. Still, it’s internal control of the party that matters, as we’ve been told. Not mere election wins.

  2. Surprising this is as high as it is given the media reporting over last couple of weeks.

    So room for optimism if party unites. 🙂

    Goodnight

  3. [So 2PP is up for Labor, but down on Preferred PM.]
    A 1% change is just margin of error stuff.

    The summary is simple:

    1) Labor is behind by a mile
    2) Gillard is very unpopular, and is arguable becoming even more unpopular, hence Abbott is now solidly in the lead on Preferred PM.

  4. [Surprising this is as high as it is given the media reporting over last couple of weeks.

    So room for optimism if party unites.]
    I don’t think you are blaming the media enough. You should try blaming the media some more because that really helps Labor’s cause.

  5. Showson,

    If Rudd wants it, he is going to have to ask for it. None on this soft c*ck approach and by my reckoning he doesn’t have the cahounas to challenge.

  6. Guytaur

    So you think this is a good poll for Labor?

    Did you read my post in the previous thread about stupidity and delusion? 😛

  7. Abbott’s largest lead over Gillard in the not all that useful PPM indicator ever: his previous highest was nine. Wonder if either of them will be up or down significantly on approval.

  8. “Other” is massive and why anyone can beat Abbott with a clear run – the leadership needs to be settled this week

  9. So LNP are -4 and Others is up to 17?

    Pffft. People parking their preference upon expectation of Rudd returning. Pretty obvious.

  10. [Guytaur

    So you think this is a good poll for Labor?

    Did you read my post in the previous thread about stupidity and delusion? ]
    Guytaur does his best work for Labor when he is asleep.

  11. Centre@9, it is odd that the Greens haven’t been able to capitalise on Labor’s woes. I expected a bit of softening when Bob Brown retired but they just haven’t cut through this term at all like 2007-10. Certainly not saying the Greens are dying or anything like that, but the last three years are a bit of a wasted opportunity for them I think.

  12. The fact that “Other” is so high signifies that the electorate really don’t like Abbott.

    Labor MUST reinstate Rudd.

    Faulkner do your job 😎

  13. [Abbott’s largest lead over Gillard in the not all that useful PPM indicator ever: his previous highest was nine. Wonder if either of them will be up or down significantly on approval.]
    It’s doubtful that Gillard’s approval will improve while her Preferred PM is in decline.

    I agree PPM isn’t particularly useful, but it simply isn’t a good sign that she is so far behind in that measure even though Abbott isn’t particularly popular. A PM should generally lead on PPM simply because they are the incumbent and thus better known.

  14. [The fact that “Other” is so high signifies that the electorate really don’t like Abbott.]
    This is very true. In fact, this actually demonstrates how unpopular Gillard is because Labor is so far behind even though the alternative isn’t popular at all!

    You’d think this would mean something to the Cult of Gillardism, but it doesn’t. Apparently it is all The Media and Rudd’s fault.

    [Labor MUST reinstate Rudd.

    Faulkner do your job]
    It will take a lot more than Faulkner. I really think he doesn’t have that much influence these days.

  15. I’m not normally one for a poll conspiracy, but if Newspoll have done Rudd figures and havent published them it’d be fishy

  16. this MurdochPoll looks dodgy as

    LNP primary down 4 yet, 2PP down 1 – some heroic assumptions included there

    Suspect others, refused and don’t knows are 25%+ – which mean s the 43/57 is rubbery

  17. If Others vote is 17 or more (totals may not sum to 100 depending on rounding) it will be an all-time high.

    If it is 16 it will tie the 16 from December 1996, but at that time they only asked Labor, Coalition, others, so others included Greens (and also PHO who were getting most of the action at that time.)

  18. coconaut…the G’s are now basically irrelevant. They only have power when Labor are ascendant. By helping undermine Labor, they have also reduced their own leverage. There is no reason to vote for them now…none at all.

  19. murdoch wants rudd sooooo baaad.
    hey counterfeit.
    yeh you cc fellah.
    no more assasination shit, get it ? you wanna be a lot smarter than you seem to think you are, charlie, infering that shit …. huh ? tap tap ? you fuckwit

  20. If you can get off “a is good for x and b is bad for y”, just thinks about this poll: the weirdest ever.

  21. On these figures the ALP will be struggling to elect 2 Senators in each state.
    It would be foolish in the extreme to dump Gillard for Rudd. If Gillard does go she should be replaced by Stephen Smith, the best leadership option Labour has. He is loyal, competent and honest.
    im not saying he can win from here, but he would certainly turn the vote around from what it is now.
    Smith being from W. A. is free of the garbage from the eastcoast machines, particulary in N. S. W.

  22. a whopping 22 don’t knows on preferred PM

    despite the views of many here, when confronted with the specter of PM Abbott, most of these will hold their noses and preference PM Gillard.

  23. Wow, other at 17! I’d be interested to know if that is one of the higher numbers for others in Newspoll history?

    Either way, there seems to be some serious vote parking going on, and some softness in the Coalition vote. Labor must return Rudd to the leadership to cash in on this, because people sure aren’t intending to vote Labor with Gillard at the helm.

  24. briefly

    [coconaut…the G’s are now basically irrelevant. They only have power when Labor are ascendant. By helping undermine Labor, they have also reduced their own leverage. There is no reason to vote for them now…none at all.]

    Yeah, far from the Greens “capitalising on Labor’s woes”, it looks like people have just been moving away from the left in general.

  25. We are saved, only 43/57 now.
    Basically a poll confirming, yep Labor is totally fracked.

    And the polls have been saying Labor totally stuffed for a long time now, not just a little stuffed, totally stuffed…massacre stuffed.

    Let me see, what should we do that we haven’t done yet.

    Why would Rudd challenge this Gillard Labor train wreck. If they want him they should have to capitulate, reinstate him by tapping Gillard…so it is clear it is their decision for the sake of saving Labor’s arse. Else they will take the following lesser devastating defeat and say putting Rudd back didn’t make a difference. We know this scum now and how they think.

  26. So with the LNP primary going down four but the 2PP only going down one, does that mean that most of the ‘others’ votes are preferencing the LNP?
    Is that the right way to read this?

    There is nothing good in this poll for Labor. If nothing is done, then it will be a rout. There’s no way of getting around that.

  27. [this MurdochPoll looks dodgy as

    LNP primary down 4 yet, 2PP down 1 – some heroic assumptions included there

    Suspect others, refused and don’t knows are 25%+ – which mean s the 43/57 is rubbery]
    Yep! You don’t like the result, therefore the figures are rubbery.

    Great post!

    2/10

  28. izatso

    NO. Murdoch wants Abbott!

    Where is the Rudd data?

    If they didn’t include questions on Rudd in the survey it may imply that they could be scared of a Rudd return?

  29. As Piping Shrike pointed out, if you did a graph starting from the last Newspoll to 14 September, and through this 1% TPP rise, and extrapolated , then Labor is on track to win this election. 🙂

  30. LoL now people will look for good news in the poll. They will feel better if Labor is hung by the neck for only 56 minutes and not 57 and think there is hope in that.

  31. @Centre 28

    I suspect the Greens will end up with a vote roughly similar to that of the last election. As reality sinks in that Abbott may control both houses, particularly if Labor decides to go over the cliff with Gillard, I think the Greens vote is more likely to edge up a little, not down.

Comments Page 1 of 31
1 2 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *