Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 31
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  1. TP…now I see it revealed…you are KR’s

    amanuensis

    [Amanuensis /əˌmænjuːˈɛnsɪs/, plural amanuenses, is a person employed to write or type what another dictates or to copy what has been written by another]

    That is, you are an echo, a recurring echo… 🙂

  2. Has Newspoll ever asked a Rudd question before? I can only remember Galaxy and Neilsen doing it.

    In any case, if News Ltd doesn’t like the idea of a return to Rudd they mightn’t want to ask a question that might give him impetus at a time like this.

  3. they’re not one skerrick afeared of the rudeboy, they luuuurv that flamin’ scenario.
    hell you know how lazy those wide-boys an’ girls is.

  4. Iiyana the Coalition get around 60% of the primary votes they lose to Others as preferences plus Labor lost a point in primary vote as well. That’s how the 2PP only dropped a point.

  5. matt 31

    The Greens will be lucky to get 8% on election day. They nearly always poll higher than they actually receive.

    *night*

  6. The Greens vote is pretty solid at 10 percent. In fact it’s around a third of the vote of the ALP,so not too bad.

    There was always going to be a reduction in the Green vote due to Brown leaving.

    IN addition many people I know who are Greens voters are going to vote for Wikileaks this time around. I wonder if that is included in the ‘others’ vote?

  7. [When the truth changes the echo will…]
    If Rudd becomes leader again two great things will happen:
    1) Labor will have a chance of winning the election, though the Coalition will still be slight favourites.
    2) Many members of the Cult of Gillardism on here will COMPLETELY FREAK OUT!

    Both of those things will be exciting to watch.

  8. Me too Matt31. I was once concerned about the Brown-to-Milne factor, but I suspect that’s actually been solved by how extraordinarily unpopular the two major party leaders are.

  9. sprocket_@39

    a whopping 22 don’t knows on preferred PM

    despite the views of many here, when confronted with the specter of PM Abbott, most of these will hold their noses and preference PM Gillard.

    22 is not that high by current or even long-term standards. It has been 20 or higher in every Newspoll since Aug 2011.

    GhostWhoVotes@44

    33 by Kevin Bonham,

    Newspoll always round their figures so that they total up to 100.

    Thankyou. Didn’t know that. So it is an all time record high “Others” vote then.

  10. [guytaur
    Posted Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
    Surprising this is as high as it is given the media reporting over last couple of weeks.

    So room for optimism if party unites.

    Goodnight]

    Yes. anyone can see that a 29%pv and a PPM of 33-45 gives great cause for optimism. FFS.

  11. @ShowsON/69

    Considering that Abbott hasn’t had 24/7 “Abbott is Bad”, 8 points Satisfied difference isn’t to laugh about.

    I’d wait for Alternative Leaders via Newspoll however.

  12. PV
    Labor 29
    Coalition 48

    That should scare the nappies off you going into an election….but lets let them have their wish….leave Gillard in the bed she made.

    If I were a Gillardist I would be happy for Rudd to take over so I could blame him for everything when Labor loses.

  13. [54
    lefty e

    The GRNs are doing quite well given how polarising this election will be a major-party focussed. Theyll take 9% in 2013, come back for 11-12% in 2016.]

    They will be lucky to scrape up 6 or 7% in WA.

  14. Centre

    Yes, clearly the Greens are to blame for everything that’s gone wrong for Labor. If it wasn’t for the Greens, everything would hunky-dory for Labor right now and everyone would have a pony. Or a unicorn, if they preferred.

    The air’s getting pretty thick in the Pollbludger bunker now – where’s bloody Steiner got to?

  15. Time for bed but I before I go I think it’s obvious what Labor needs to do this week

    Stephen Smith for PM

    You know it makes sense 🙂

    Night All

  16. “If Rudd wants it, he is going to have to ask for it. None on this soft c*ck approach and by my reckoning he doesn’t have the cahounas to challenge.” (#16)

    There’s a job for you writing menus for LNP fundraisers.

  17. [Kevin Bonham ‏@kevinbonham 36s
    #Newspoll James J on pollbludger: Abbott: Sat 36 (-1), Diss 53 (=) Gillard: Sat 28 (=), Diss 62 (=)
    ]

    Kevin, you don’t think the NewsPoll is suffering the same stagnation effect seen in Essential?

    You poll the same broad demographic (pre-registered online pool, ageing landliners) all the time and they tell you the same thing.

    More interested in those not being polled, Others, refused and don’t knows. Suspect this number combined is very high, over 40%?

  18. I agree Kevin13. Plus I wanna see the MSM and LNP freak out during the inevitable bounce he’d get. At this stage, 4 weeks of honeymoon would present a serious problem of momentum for the LNP.

    But FWIW, my gut feeling is Rudd would need to be actively talked into it at this late stage by a couple of senior figures who knifed him initially. And Im not so sure they care enough about losing govt to do it. Too internally focussed – theyll just chuck us to the lions cos its easier than a volte face. Maybe some are deluded enough to the JG can win it – but I very much doubt that (with the possible exception of Emerson, who looks genuine when he says it, albeit slightly manic of late).

  19. Looks like fractions are the major player in this Newspoll – the Coalition must only just be 48 and Labor an unlucky 29 to arrive at a 57/43 result. But I will leave it to the experts to comment.

  20. [They will be lucky to scrape up 6 or 7% in WA.]

    As ive said before, the only real problem facing the GRNs this election is the possiblity that Ludlum will lose. I think he’s probably their best.

  21. [You poll the same broad demographic (pre-registered online pool, ageing landliners) all the time and they tell you the same thing.]
    WTF!?

    The reason the polls are consistently bad for Labor is because LABOR IS LOSING, which in turn is because GILLARD IS VERY UNPOPULAR!

  22. counterfeit this is a blog right. you can only make so big a fucker out of y’self before your pinged. so gahead. be a fucken bigger fuckwit.
    you ain’t smart at all, or you’lda gorn by now….

  23. [“If Rudd wants it, he is going to have to ask for it. None on this soft c*ck approach and by my reckoning he doesn’t have the cahounas to challenge.” (]

    No way…these morons created this entire mess and are about to get the biggest spanking of their life. They would love to lay off the blame to Rudd but having him challenge, get the job and make sure he loses.

    I made the comment some time ago that the factional warlords will make sure the polls are beyond repair then install Rudd to save their own arses.

    Rudd’s criteria a quite reasonable if Labor is to have a chance and the change over not just another warlord game to protect themselves. They have to tap Gillard, install him unopposed, and receive unequivocal support…else it will be a set up.

  24. [But FWIW, my gut feeling is Rudd would need to be actively talked into it at this late stage by a couple of senior figures who knifed him initially.]
    Yes I think that is the case too. He basically wants to be elected unopposed which would give him the best chance to win the election.
    [And Im not so sure they care enough about losing govt to do it. Too internally focussed – theyll just chuck us to the lions cos its easier than a volte face.]
    Yes I think this is the case too. Shorten is mainly interested in making it easy for himself to become opposition leader after the election and Conroy seems to just want to keep his job as leader (of the opposition!) in the Senate.
    [Maybe some are deluded enough to the JG can win it – but I very much doubt that (with the possible exception of Emerson, who looks genuine when he says it, albeit slightly manic of late).]

    I agree with this entire post. A very good summary of where things are.

  25. Shows

    How do you know what the popularity is or isn’t if you exclude a huge and growing swag of the population who don’t have landlines?

  26. In theory, landlines are less of a problem than you’d think.

    Even though people without landlines are likely to vote differently, that’s because they’re younger than the population as a whole. But the effects of the age of the poll respondents are already accounted for.

    The next question is “are young people with landlines going to vote differently to young people without landlines?”. It’s possible, I guess… maybe there are other factors like people who rent are less likely to have a landline?

  27. [geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, June 23, 2013 at 11:46 pm | PERMALINK
    sprocket

    why do you think mobiles or the young would change things much? could be worse]

    the young don’t read newspapers, they don’t watch traditional TV and they don’t listen to 2GB. So their views are not framed by the OldMedia.

    and they are not polled by NewsPoll or Neilsen because they don’t have landlines.

    so yes, they could think Abbott is better, cause he will dismantle Clean Energy initiatives, cripple NBN, abolish marine parks and reduce foreign aid so you could be right. Things will be a lot worse.

  28. [AN internal ALP report containing polling for 40 seats across Australia, and circulated among selected members of Julia Gillard’s leadership group, shows Labor would be lucky to retain 30 to 35 seats after the election.
    But the report has not been shared with most Labor MPs.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/alp-mps-kept-in-dark-on-disastrous-labor-poll-which-predicts-election-wipeout/story-fnii5s3x-1226668469923?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer829e0&utm_medium=twitter

  29. sprocket_@82

    Kevin Bonham ‏@kevinbonham 36s
    #Newspoll James J on pollbludger: Abbott: Sat 36 (-1), Diss 53 (=) Gillard: Sat 28 (=), Diss 62 (=)


    Kevin, you don’t think the NewsPoll is suffering the same stagnation effect seen in Essential?

    You poll the same broad demographic (pre-registered online pool, ageing landliners) all the time and they tell you the same thing.

    More interested in those not being polled, Others, refused and don’t knows. Suspect this number combined is very high, over 40%?

    The possible stagnation issue with Essential is not repolling the same demographic but repolling the same specific people too often (they have some protections against this but they may not be adequate.) The ageing landliners thing is countered to a degree by scaling. Indeed, Newspoll’s been anything but static this year.

    By the way I’m 41 and I still have a landline! Shared with my partner who is 32, though it’s usually me who answers it.

    No idea what %age refuse to answer Newspoll at all these days though I do see some inflated estimates on Twitter.

    As for the uncommitted/refused rate I did an article about that:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/newspoll-upfront-exclusion-rates-since.html

    It’s been high lately but there’s not a lot of juice in it as an objection to the results.

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