Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 31
1 2 3 4 31
  1. [Shows

    How do you know what the popularity is or isn’t if you exclude a huge and growing swag of the population who don’t have landlines?]
    Because all the public polls for the last two years have been in rough agreement AND Labor’s private polling is saying exactly the same thing as the public polls. See here:
    http://www.news.com.au/national-news/nsw-act/alp-mps-kept-in-dark-on-disastrous-labor-poll-which-predicts-election-wipeout/story-fnii5s3x-1226668469923?utm_source=buffer&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer829e0&utm_medium=twitter

  2. Gillard must be kept to election day.

    Labor must not dare take away the voters right to sort out Gillard once and for all.

  3. a consideration: as was once said of latham these senior politicians all have a safety net or career parachute called super – for all that roxon protested rudd (she would never work with him) and loyalty to JG she will leave – perhaps some outspoken at present have plan b ready and really aren’t as concerned for party or government as some here might be or might think they would be. a loss would be perfect opportunity for a career change!

  4. maybe gillard thinks like this … loss is not such a great thing is you have plan b, at least she would not humiliation of being dumped at leader and also has many things to blame – kevin, the greens, msm, men, right wing women, right wing men, indonesia …

  5. Poll exactly as expected. I bet the female vote rose slightly for the PM this fortnight.
    I don’t see any change in leader this week now.
    This poll showed last Newspoll was not much of an outlier but strictly MOE.

  6. [How do you know what the popularity is or isn’t if you exclude a huge and growing swag of the population who don’t have landlines?]

    This excuse/lie is rolled out every time Labor are losing in the polls.

    Then we have NSW State Election. Then we have the QLD State Election. Then we have the WA State Election.

    The polls were pretty much spot on or underestimating the Coalition vote.

    Yes less people have landline phones, but Labor voters are just as likely to have a landline as anyone else… they are not a special breed.

    And polling agencies go to great lengths to make sure they have the required age groups so that excuse is gone as well.

    It’s time to face the facts that the polling is very accurate and Gillard is Gone.

  7. Newspoll is not surprising given the beating Gillard is receiving by the media over Rudd.

    They have their reputations at stake too, as much as she does.

    She has run a pretty successful government for three years. The media have hardly been right in any of their predictions once.

    Trouble is, of course, that the media collectively forget their mistakes and cover for each other.

    With The Age’s admission yesterday that the government had many good policies and the Coalition quite a few duds – but that The Age didn’t feel required to cover these trivial issues (Tony Jones called them “talkng points” on Q&A recently) – it’s fairly clear to me they’ve not only declared war on Labor, but on their readers as well.

    However, I think it’s pretty plain that if they believe an Abbott government will restore their circulations (once all the hysteria they have generated dies down) then they should think again.

    Readership will be down anyway after an election, half of the population will have deserted them due to having their intelligence insulted, and the various paywalls will choke more life’s blood out of them.

    The old idea of big companies – big because they had to be big to afford the huge printing, staff and production infrastructure that newspapers physically rely on to churn out daily editions – controlling “the media” and dictating to the masses how they are to think is pretty old hat.

    Struggling to maintain the old methods of production as an aid to increasing or even maintaining sales is putting the cart before the horse: it’s arse-about.

    The future of the media is smaller companies catering to niche markets, making commensurately smaller profits in dollar terms per company, but perhaps bigger dollars industry-wide when you add them all up.

    There were a few years where Kodak and the old film manufacturers tried to make out film was still better than digital. Vinyl record companies tried it too. But eventually digital overtook both and buried them.

    The same thing will happen to the Old Media, and – if film and CDs (and Kindles killing books, with GPS killing street directories) are any indicator – the death of the media as we know it now will happen pretty quickly, along with the big conglomerate companies that used to be all the rage.

    I giggled more than screamed when that wallah from The Age yesterday started talking about the editorial interms of “what the paper believes”. Really? Who give a flying f*ck WHAT The Age believes? Once upon a time, maybe, 10 years ago, but not now. Why should anyone look to guidance on governance and management from a company that itself is going broke, sacking staff and tanking shareholders’ funds? I don’t see it myself.

    So just why the media are so anti-Gillard and anti-Labor, the specific reasons, escapes me, other than if it’s simply a reflex action. Whatever the cause, the media in its current form is still going down.

    So let them enjoy their last few moments of muscle-flexing. It’ll all be over soon.

    In the meantime, Labor needs to shrug off today’s poll (along with all the rest), roll its sleeves up and quit believing that Rudd will take them back to some halcyon time when 59-41 in Labor’s favour was par for the course.

    Both Rudd and Abbott are offering the past, cloaked in misty Golden Era chiffon.

    Only Gillard is offering the future.

    The trick is to get the public to raccept that offer.

  8. Took me a while to remember to update my cross-pollster aggregate with all the records flying about everywhere, but anyway it’s now 55.8. And since Bludgertrack was 56.5 before this 57, it might be I’m being generous to Labor there. 🙂

    One stat I don’t think I’d posted here yet: Gillard’s PPM score of 33 is her worst ever, and the worst polled by a sitting PM since Howard in July 1998. (Her worst before was 34 in Sep 2011). Two and a bit months after polling a PPM of 31 (Beazley 39 Undecided 30, 2PP 54 to Labor) Howard won the 1998 federal election.

  9. [@Sean/109

    1. No body said Labor were “special breed”.]
    He explained to you why there is no reason to suspect all the polls are uniformly skewed against Labor.

    Clearly you are too stupid to understand his explanation.

  10. We are at this juncture. If Rudd wants the job, he will have to challenge. KR’s real trouble is that a good many in caucus do not trust him to go through with a challenge. Faced with a chance of another loss, they expect him to go to water and, afraid of a repeat of the March fiasco, will not declare themselves for him. Consequently Rudd is without the numbers he needs to act.

    Meanwhile, others will have no part in rewarding Rudd’s past treachery and, though they may not act to stop him, will not aid him either.

    So there we have it. Nothing has changed. KR lacks the mettle to fight. JG will not buckle. And there is no third candidate.

    The shrewder minds can see what will ensue if the zealots in the LNP obtain a super-majority, but even this is not enough to impel the heavy-weights to act. Doom lies ahead and we should prepare for it.

  11. The landline thing comes up here after nearly every Newspoll. Having been polled only two weeks ago it is obvious they check on the age and sex of voters before they will even interview you. They clearly exclude you if they have enough of your category and therefore they thoroughly get feedback from every relevant age and gender category.
    They do not just poll te elderly or 2GB listeners. Most families and individuals still have landlines even if we just make or receive only a few calls a month.
    The polls are accurate at a point in time e.g Nielsen and Newspoll are virtually identical and Morgan Multi will be close but has a slight Labor bias.
    All the politicians think they are accurate and follow them like a TV or radio personality would follow the ratings I.e very closely.

  12. [So with the LNP primary going down four but the 2PP only going down one, does that mean that most of the ‘others’ votes are preferencing the LNP?]

    The Coalition is down one, not four. Troy Bramston’s original tweet said the Coalition was on 45%, but it’s actually 48%.

  13. [We are at this juncture. If Rudd wants the job, he will have to challenge. KR’s real trouble is that a good many in caucus do not trust him to go through with a challenge. ]
    Clearly you haven’t bothered to consider that one reason Rudd will only challenge if he is very sure of getting a solid majority is that this is better for the party and the country.

    If Rudd challenges and loses the ballot by 2 votes this would be the worst outcome of all, because it would show how divided the party room is.

    But it isn’t surprising to me that you use Rudd’s position of only challenging if he is confident of a comfortable win for the good of the party against him!
    [Meanwhile, others will have no part in rewarding Rudd’s past treachery and, though they may not act to stop him, will not aid him either.]
    What about Julia Gillard’s “past treachery”? Why should that be rewarded?
    [The shrewder minds can see what will ensue if the zealots in the LNP obtain a super-majority, but even this is not enough to impel the heavy-weights to act. Doom lies ahead and we should prepare for it.]
    Doom does not have to lie ahead!

    Gillard should do the honourable thing and resign for the good of her party and for the good of the country. Her obstinate actions is simply going to help elect Tony Abbott and perhaps give him control of the Senate too!

  14. [@ShowsOn/112

    No I think you just mis-read other people’s posts.]
    Your posts make more sense when they are misread.

  15. [SO….just reporting the story….this is the way it is tonight in Canberra…]
    I don’t care about how you report your delusions.

  16. @ShowsON/119

    If you haven’t noticed, I was kind of defending Sprocket’s post.

    It’s only because you disagree with my post that your only answer is Rudd.

  17. [Gillard should do the honourable thing and resign for the good of her party and for the good of the country. Her obstinate actions is simply going to help elect Tony Abbott and perhaps give him control of the Senate too!]

    Doubtless many feel this way. But equally, many feel the result with Rudd would be the same. You may disagree with that assessment, but that is the honestly-held view of many – most likely, a majority – in caucus.

    This stand-off is practically insoluble. It is tragic. The barbarians are at the gate of the citadel and will soon be swarming though.

  18. [120
    ShowsOn

    SO….just reporting the story….this is the way it is tonight in Canberra…

    I don’t care about how you report your delusions.]

    Oh, they are not my delusions. They are the observations of those well-placed to know.

  19. [Doubtless many feel this way.]
    Yes, these are the nondelusional people.
    [But equally, many feel the result with Rudd would be the same.]
    These are the delusional people who can’t read an opinion poll to save their life or parliamentary seat.
    [You may disagree with that assessment, but that is the honestly-held view of many – most likely, a majority – in caucus.]
    And if Rudd becomes leader before the election will you finally admit that you are delusional?

    [This stand-off is practically insoluble. It is tragic. The barbarians are at the gate of the citadel and will soon be swarming though.]
    Hence Gillard should do the honourable thing and resign.

  20. [Oh, they are not my delusions. They are the observations of those well-placed to know.]
    You’re so delusional you’re also hallucinating and thus can’t take responsibility for your own delusions.

  21. [125
    ShowsOn

    Oh, they are not my delusions. They are the observations of those well-placed to know.

    You’re so delusional you’re also hallucinating and thus can’t take responsibility for your own delusions.]

    Oh, if only you were right about this and I have just been dreaming. Sad to say, I am wide awake, sober and in control of all my faculties.

  22. [And if Rudd becomes leader before the election will you finally admit that you are delusional?]

    Rudd may yet challenge and, were he to do so, might well win. It’s possible, though he himself as ruled it out. What is certain is that he will not be handed the leadership without a fight.

  23. [ It’s possible, though he himself as ruled it out. What is certain is that he will not be handed the leadership without a fight.]
    So in other words, the only person more delusional than you is Julia Gillard.

  24. If Julia has a mind to resign, which I only reluctantly consider, it should only be for someone like Stephen Smith. Of whom I have always thought well. As do friends of mine. And as discussed earlier by others here.

    I still think a good campaign would work for Julia.

    I still think the LNP lack of policy is an issue.

    It needs to be hammered home what will be lost if Labor goes.

    By someone!!!!

  25. Crikey

    Stephen Smith would need a personality injection.

    He could not run an election campaign. Just not the personality – seems like a nice guy though.

  26. Gillard is not resigning. Rudd is not regaining the leadership and Julia Gillard will lead the ALP to an election win on 14/9/13.

    Now stop panicking, or gloating, whichever is your bent, and settle down. A few of you will blow a gasket the way you are carrying on.

  27. SO @ 129…Of course, the PM speaks for herself. She has made it clear she will not fold. He will not challenge, she will not cede. Nothing is resolved. There is a lot of impatience with this and little wonder the country wants to vote for the LNP. Labor, by its omissions, is doing its best to persuade the electorate that it cannot be trusted with power.

  28. It was said that Stephen Smith is not lacking in personality, though he seems reserved. Yet on first seeing him at a long ago election, we certainly took to him.

  29. Puff
    Stop being delusional

    Gillard cannot win in September ans will lose very heavily. Their is no magic pill to make the public like her.

    Gillard is essentially wooden whenever she is not on personal territory. She is alive when discussing her own personal issues eg misogyny and the AWU stuff and in parliament when debating and making quick repartee, but in set speeches she is wooden.

    I have no idea why this is but it is so, but it means that the election campaign, full of set speeches is a danger for her. To give a bit of an example, when talking of the recent death of the soldier Gillard gave a perfectly appropriate but very wooden set speech. Now most other politicians, Abbott, Rudd, Turnbull, Shorten and most MPs would not need a set fixed speech for such an occasion. They could speak off the cuff and say a lot of nice, well meaning and honest things, without getting into strife. Gillard seemed as if on autocue and gave what seemed like a pre-written speech with all the “proper” things.

  30. [I still think a good campaign would work for Julia.]
    Delusional! Labor had a comfortable lead before the start of the 2010 campaign but nearly lost. You know “citizen’s assembly” and “real Julia” not exactly vote winners.

    [I still think the LNP lack of policy is an issue.]
    This is NOT an issue while Gillard is Labor leader! actually go out and talk to people. Most people are just waiting for a chance to vote against Gillard, they couldn’t care LESS about the consequences of doing so, they just don’t want Gillard to be PM.

    [It needs to be hammered home what will be lost if Labor goes.]
    What voters see as the biggest loss of getting rid of Labor is NO LONGER HAVING TO PUT UP WITH JULIA GILLARD AS PRIME MINISTER!

    That’s why so many people can’t wait to vote against Labor because it is the easiest way to get rid of Gillard.

  31. [There is a lot of impatience with this and little wonder the country wants to vote for the LNP. Labor, by its omissions, is doing its best to persuade the electorate that it cannot be trusted with power.]
    You don’t talk to enough people. The electorate by and large doesn’t want to “vote for the LNP” or Abbott.

    The electorate wants to VOTE AGAINST JULIA GILLARD.

    If the Labor party room has any sense it will take the opportunity to do that away from voters.

  32. The word on the street here in Roma is that they can’t understand why Australians are fussing about changing PMs as the Italians change PMs as often as they change their socks.

  33. KB
    The ‘report’ is a comparison of publicly available polling results, from what I can see. A grade three kid could have written it. Come to think of it, considering Kenny’s appallingly boring writing style, maybe he should get a grade three kid to write his column.

  34. Yep, Puff. Apart from the usual things like pride, conceding to the (all the) enemies etc, it would be a massive denial of who she knows herself to be.

    Which one could not do.

  35. This result is suboptimal for Labor. Presumably leaked by a Rudd sympathiser.

    [AN internal ALP report containing polling for 40 seats across Australia, and circulated among selected members of Julia Gillard’s leadership group, shows Labor would be lucky to retain 30 to 35 seats after the election.

    LABOR would keep only two of its six South Australian seats and be lucky to retain 30 to 35 seats nationally after the election, internal polling of 40 seats has shown.

    But most Labor MPs are oblivious to the doomsday prediction because the national report has only been circulated among selected members of Julia Gillard’s leadership group.

    News Ltd has obtained data from the party’s UMR Research report, compiled for the ALP National Secretariat in the past two weeks.]

Comments Page 3 of 31
1 2 3 4 31

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *