Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 31
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  3. Puffy

    It certainly is chaos here. There was almost a riot at passport control to get into the country. About a thousand people and two passport stampers and no queues, just a heaving mass of pissed off humanity. There was chanting and a slow hand clap.

  4. Mari. When you turn up, apologies. I need to go to bed. Talk next time.

    Dio, that was posted on the previous thread. Interestingly unnerving.

    Goodnight all.

  5. Puffy

    My wife is just out choosing a new handbag from some nice men who seem to have misplaced their shop and are standing in an alley.

    Chanel, Prada, LV must be cutting their overheads. 😀

  6. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@145

    KB
    The ‘report’ is a comparison of publicly available polling results, from what I can see. A grade three kid could have written it. Come to think of it, considering Kenny’s appallingly boring writing style, maybe he should get a grade three kid to write his column.

    Yes, but he’s making some sort of claim that this stuff was compiled by “supporters of Prime Minister Julia Gillard” and sort-of-implying (without directly saying) that a “senior minister” is involved in circulating claims about polling. Also he’s not saying that the material posted actually “is” the report, since there’s a reference to ” the results of the monthly Age/Nielsen poll, the fortnightly Newspoll, and others”

    What actually happened with the 2012 challenge is that there was a brief surge in Labor support at the time of the challenge, but either side of that surge was bad ratings – and possibly that voters were disappointed Rudd was not reinstalled. So the conclusion being claimed doesn’t actually follow.

    So the options are:

    (i) Kenny is making stuff up.
    (ii) The assessment exists and the fools behind believing it achieves something are low-level minions who are being trumped up beyond their own significance by sneaky wording in the write-up.
    (iii) Senior Gillard supporters actually believe that these sorts of lines are effective poll-based arguments.

    Hmmmm…

  7. Snowden The Truth teller Has left Hong Kong for the sefety of Moscow where the CIA cannot reach him
    _______________________

    He will go on to Equador or Venezuale via Cuba..and one imagines by a Russian flight
    Like Assenge the US wants to silence.jail or kill him to stop his truth telling

    BTW Obama has launched more attacks on all manner of whistle-blowers than George Bush..so much for a liberal Democrat…and more attacks by drones on civilian targets too …so much for the Nobel Peace Prize winner

  8. I’m not sure where the UMR leak report gets off at either. Key findings of the UMR polling have been widely reported. So just because members haven’t seen the nitty gritty doesn’t make them “oblivious to the doomsday prediction”

  9. Kevin,
    I think they are puffing more air into the single air mattress trying to turn it into a double. As for 156, I would go with 1).

    Anyway, as you said, trying to pin poll fluctuations to one factor when nothing else is controlled for, is really a beginner’s mistake.

    As if there is any ALP MP who hasn’t been keeping a close eye on anything that may affect their electorate!!!

  12. Julia Gillard has a choice, she can either go now having been PM, never lost an election outright and being seen to have done the right thing for her party, or she can say and have it written on her gravestone ‘the ALP leader who led the party to its worst defeat in history!’

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Sheehan puts to boot in. Makes maudlin reading.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gillard-held-firm-in-union-grasp-20130623-2oqkd.html
    No shit Sherlock!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rudd-to-blame-for-labor-disaster-says-gillard-poll-review-20130623-2oqrk.html
    A 457 story.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/visa-joy-turns-to-misery-with-pay-shortfalls-20130623-2oqpv.html
    Alan Moir’s hopes for Julia aren’t that high.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    It’s all too much this morning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Something funny for a change.
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/unsuspecting-mans-bedroom-transformed-into-fairy-wonderland-in-hilarious-prank/story-fnii5smq-1226668478816
    And again something to take our mind off it all, a Melbourne company takes first prize in Cannes for the best advertising campaign.
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jun/22/cannes-lions-advertising-awards
    Well done David Rowe! He puts the boot into Rudd.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  15. Well, I’m glad I went to bed before this little beauty hit the streets.

    I suggest that lots of people may be looking in the wRONg place for answers. High ‘others’ probably means that it is going to be raining Kats and Pups on 14 Sept.

    OTOH, it is clear that Labor is going to need a Divine Wind to avoid either the Mother of all Apocalypses or a Sociopath at the Wheel of Misfortune.

    We plebians can but Groan under the Yoke of the Tyranny of the Political Class.

  16. Ok everyone. Coalition vote did not go down 4%. It was 49 last time, its not 48. Labor went down 1% on primary. That 2% went to “others”.

    That’s margin of error stuff.

    I know its hard for the people here, but the ALP is going get a flogging.

    Deal with it!

  17. I can see a lot of people cannot read. More likely its just denial.

    In my post last night I put room for optimism IF the party unites.

    A sentence totally ignored by the usual suspects showing how out of touch with the reality they are denying is.

    As Homer Simpson would say DOH!

  19. Morning all. Thanks BK for the links, Sheahan is good in identifying the problem. Labor assumes that if there was no leadership problem that Labor and Gillard would become popular. This entirely ignores the unpopularity of various changes designed to placate unions, not help the nation, or in some cases even workers. It really is all over. Then there are Craig Thomson and other cases still to hit the courts.
    [Union corruption is going to haunt Gillard, the Labor brand, and the Greens in the coming months. And let us not forget that Victoria Police are continuing an investigation, and issuing search warrants, into money laundering by former officials of the Australian Workers Union at a time when Gillard was providing legal advice to people who were union officials then and are under police investigation now.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gillard-held-firm-in-union-grasp-20130623-2oqkd.html#ixzz2X4zNn2pT
    If the Liberals are smart they will string out inquiries into union finance so that the court cases are still running for the 2016 campaign.

  21. @Wendy_Bacon: Combet doesn’t take his instructions from media & nothing’s changed for him @RNBreakfast #auspol

  25. Heard Clive Palmer’s Lateline interview last night.

    It seems he doesn’t want Abbott to be PM, he’s at war with The Australian. Good stuff.

    BUT he has no stated policies yet – that, he assures us, is in the hands of his members. Wonder, what are Dougie Hawkins’ views on climate change, refugees and the economy?

  26. Morning All

    Surely the last week on the leadership – whatever happens it has to stop to give Labor any chance of winning. Smith, Combet and Conroy all out yesterday telling Kevin he will have to challenge – they either know he doesn’t have the numbers or know he does but Julia won’t go – OR – want a challenge and have a third candidate, hopefully Smith, ready to roll.

    Whoever wins, and I don’t really care who it is, has to have the full support – if the loser, losers, can’t offer that they need to resign from the party. Simple

    In saying all that, Julia can still win – Kevin’s figure from yesterday was fascinating. Howard came from a PPM rating of 31, Julia is on 33, 3 months out from the 1998 election. All Beazley offered that year was to wind back GST. Will history repeat???

    Probably heaps more going on but it won’t get much coverage until the leadership is sorted – do it Labor ffs

  28. “@SabraLane: The PM talking to CEDA at parliament house about “the correction we had to have” saying commentary on economy too pessimisstic.”

  30. CRIKEY WHITEY

    Sorry missed you went to The Jersey Zoo with my friends (weather cleared up) where they breed endangered species,really enjoyed it. Then getting all English and went and had supper with friends

  31. Morning all.

    PUP adverts have started here – saw the first one last night. No policies yet, just seem to be anti Liberal and anti Labor, or more correctly, anti Abbott and anti Gillard.

  33. Who is the President of the Labor Party?
    Is that person hiding somewhere, advising behind the scenes?

    In AFL, Presidents step forward and knock heads. Why is this not happening in ALP?

  34. [Robert Oakeshott MP ‏@OakeyMP 8m
    Luke Hartsuyker says NBN will be expensive and will also have a rate of return. This is the National Party’s NBN spokesman at work.]

    For you mari!

  39. lizzie

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 8:23 am | Permalink

    Heard Clive Palmer’s Lateline interview last night.

    It seems he doesn’t want Abbott to be PM, he’s at war with The Australian. Good stuff.

    BUT he has no stated policies yet – that, he assures us, is in the hands of his members. Wonder, what are Dougie Hawkins’ views on climate change, refugees and the economy?
    ======================================================

    Palmer no policies? What a surprise! A conservative Party that either has no policies or unwilling to debate what they do have…

  41. [The tech start-up and biotech sectors are at the forefront of a push to transform Australia from an exporter of iron ore to an exporter of ideas.

    “It’s a pretty primitive economy,” said internet entrepreneur Matt Barrie. “We basically dig stuff up out of the ground, put it on a boat and ship it.”

    As part of ambitious plans to change that, the government has announced millions of dollars in new venture capital funding and large-scale reviews of the technology sector. A A$38 billion ($36.2 billion) National Broadband Network (NBN) will bring high-speed internet to almost all the 23 million population.

    “As the rollout of the NBN continues, the capacity for start-up companies, particularly in the tech and digital sectors, to create game-changing businesses and applications is unprecedented,” said Communications Minister Stephen Conroy.

    START-UP SUCCESS

    Online and high-tech start-ups account for just 0.1 percent of GDP and 9,500 jobs, but the sector is growing rapidly. A recent report by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) suggests it could account for 4 percent of GDP and 540,000 jobs by 2033.

    That puts Australia well behind Silicon Valley in California, the epicentre of start-ups, but growing activity in Sydney and Melbourne are putting those cities on the edge of the world top 10 that currently includes London, Tel Aviv and Singapore alongside U.S. cities San Francisco, Seattle, Boulder and Austin.]
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/23/us-australia-geeks-miners-idUSBRE95M0GJ20130623

    How come we don’t hear about this stuff in the Australian media? Oh that’s right, because they’re all too busy doing leadershit.

  42. “@stevethompson49: Michael Rowland: “We’ll get to some of those policy questions in just a moment.” Bullshit! You’re playing Liberal Party games. #AusPol”

  43. [BB

    PMJG using your signal and the noise analogy]

    But my analogy was wrong.

    Kevin Bonham has a spreadsheet somewhere that says so.

    The polls are near perfect analogues of reality. They just need a little expert attention here and there to bring out the distilled essence.

    They are not being gamed or used as part of any feedback loop by the media, who are honest brokers just reporting the news and nothing but the news.

  44. Dougie Hawkins performed a stunningly bad streettalk when he was on the footy show where he terrified a veiled muslim woman about something trivial in the footscray mall. Capped off with something appropriately stupid about “them people” HAW HAW HAW

  47. Peter Dutton answers a policy criticism question with a sensible question: “How does Labor feel today on the third anniversary of Gillard becoming PM?”

    ABC nods and says: “We’re out of time.”

  49. Julia giving an important speech …Rudd (not) thinking of challenging …Cardinals counting the numbers…

    …where’s Simon Crean?

  50. AussieAchmed

    [Palmer no policies? What a surprise! A conservative Party…]

    Oh, sorry. For a moment I forgot that we’re in some sort of never-never land 😀

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