Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [Dougie Hawkins]

    Ah yes, I was trying to remember which ex AFL player was a PUP candidate. I was thinking it was Bill Brownless.

    Either way both are juveniles.

  2. lizzie@185: I share your love for Gerald Durrell, especially his book My Family and Other Animals. And his brother Lawrence was very a fine novelist, with his Alexandria Quartet being IMO among the best works of fiction in English produced in the 20th century.

    Sadly, (Lawrence) Durrell’s reputation after his death has been severely blackened by Sappho’s claims that he instigated an incestuous relationship with his daughter Sappho when she was 15. This claims – which come second-hand from some of Sappho’s friends – are not entirely substantiated, and it is possible that Sappho (who took her own life at the age of 34) suffered from delusional mental illness. On the other hand, the Alexandria Quartet features a sub-plot involving an incestuous romance (between brother and sister).

    Whatever evil acts its author might/might not have committed, the Alexandria Quartet still well worth reading IMO: it has a unique sort of magic that I have never found in any other book (and which, despite his best efforts – Durrell was never able to recapture in any of his other writings (except perhaps some of his poetry): cf, the tedious and extremely silly Avignon Quintet.

  7. Melbourne City on the Yarra is being ruined by Lib non-planning policies, driven by speculation. Nothing new, I suppose.

    [Austpac purchased the ”strategically important” site knowing the Liberal Party – once elected – would rezone it for high rise, and has been operating a self-storage facility in the meantime, according to a statement on its website.
    It recently lodged a planning permit application for three residential towers of 680 apartments, and 3000 square metres of ground-floor retail on the site.
    Planning Minister Matthew Guy rezoned 240 hectares known as Fishermans Bend for residential redevelopment a year ago.
    Since then, 21 skyscrapers have been proposed for Montague alone, the precinct closest to the CBD.
    …
    RMIT planning professor Michael Buxton said Fishermans Bend was an example of ”world’s worst practice”.

    ”It’s scandalous what the government did in rezoning such a large area of land as capital city zone without any rules being in place and enriching canny speculators who saw this coming,” he said. ”You could not get a worse example of how not to do development than Fishermans Bend.”
    He said land speculation added to the cost of building apartments, making it less likely that affordable housing or community spaces would be factored in.
    ”You get a cycle of speculation, onselling of planning permits, higher land prices and unaffordable housing.”]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-rezone-reaps-millions-20130623-2oqr6.html#ixzz2X5F3dSQV

  8. v
    I saw him on the TV. Apparently he doesn’t think much of Gillard or Labor but thinks that Abbott does so have policies, so there.

  9. [Morning all

    Heard excerpt of C Pyne on radio. Basically being all humble about the polls. What a frickin joke]

    Just preparing for Government.

  10. [‘If God didn’t want #Abbott as a priest, why would I want him as PM’?
    Elderly Lady caller on Talk Radio via @SpaceKidette]

  11. Be like Gough: 75 radical ideas to transform Australia

    IPA REVIEW ARTICLE

    read and get an indication of the policies we will see from Abbott after the election. He has already said he will implement 10 of them.

    If Tony Abbott wants to leave a lasting impact – and secure his place in history – he needs to take his inspiration from Australia’s most left-wing prime minister.

    No prime minister changed Australia more than Gough Whitlam.

    Telling that the IPA could not name a Liberal PM that Abbott should emulate

  13. I wonder how many business leaders are going to take up PMJG’s challenge of complaining to ACMA on issuing corrections over predictions of job losses that turned out to be job growth?

    A good joke showing how people are so ready to trash talk the economy.

  15. Well..one bit of positive news on the supposed election of a LNP. gov’t is that the population will dramatically increase…with the registering as “real-people” all those “Rupert-head” inflatable dolls that the anti-gillard cheer-squad have been arse-licking for the last three years!
    They have become so attached to their “Avatars” that they will want them to be able to vote alongside when the time for the election is nigh…and why not? they are currently used to give voting intent to newspoll!

  19. Pyne still saying the people should choose the PM.
    ======================================================
    Hypothetical;
    Abbott wins election and is PM. He dies (Not that I wish that at all)

    Will the Liberal Party elect another Leader as PM or will they call another election so the people can choose the PM?
    =====================================================

    Because if we take Pyne at his word “that the people should elect their PM” an election should be called….

  22. Remember when the coalition MP’s stated that they bet their political lives that China would NEVER price carbon?

    When will they stand by their word and resign??

  23. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Big things re our insurance claim (10/10/2011) have finally started to happen.

    At no stage was the electrical wiring (or, for that matter, any upstairs damage) checked in professional/ legally defensible ways; weird, given water entered through the roof & down internal walls, and lights & power plugs started to fail almost immediately & continue to do so. Currently our heating is down to one small electric radiator & Offspring’s electric blanket. Which I told the FoS rep last week. WOW! Inspection began Friday. What happens from now on is still “up in the air”; but may include having to shift out for several weeks.

    OTOH, our electricity use is falling, as are the bills!

    And I have a perfect excuse for getting back under the doona after bath & dressing 😉

    IOW I may not be around much; though I will lurk.

  24. AA

    Well, if the people were to choose the PM the “polls” say they’d choose Turnbull. Pyne simply stirring the pot, feeding the fire, as usual.

  26. victoria

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    AA

    What is C Pyne advocating?
    ========================================================

    Quite simply (simple is easy for him) – that the people should choose their PM. Just that statement, no change to the current Westminster System just the rhetoric without substance

  28. lizzie

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 9:34 am | Permalink

    AA

    Well, if the people were to choose the PM the “polls” say they’d choose Turnbull. Pyne simply stirring the pot, feeding the fire, as usual.
    ========================================================

    A case of the ignorant pandering to the ignorant

  29. AA@210

    “Telling that the IPA could not name a Liberal PM that Abbott should emulate”

    I couldn’t give a toss what the IPA thinks about anything.

    However, I will be absolutely astonished if Abbott could even emulate about 25% of John Howard’s achievements as PM during his first two terms (ie, pre-Tampa, when the Howard Government basically left the planet for 5 years until coming back down and doing a few good things in its last 12 months around water, carbon pricing, some aspects of the NT Intervention, etc.)

    Compared to Howard, let alone Whitlam, Abbott as PM will be a political and policy lightweight of a type we haven’t seen since the days of Billy McMahon. And the team behind him appears to be the least talented we have ever seen in an Opposition about to be elected into Government. Scott Morrison is a talent, Arthur Sinodinos, Nigel Scullion and Ian MacFarlane are all sensible but relatively low profile. Julie Bishop isn’t as bad as some people think while Turnbull – despite being worse than most people think – is still better than most of his colleagues. Christopher Pyne and Eric Abetz probably won’t be much use as ministers, but they are at least highly effective politicians. Hockey is a goose, but has an excellent (and largely undeserved) public profile. Andrew Robb is boring and a bit weird, but will not make a fool of himself as a minister. I also think Cormann has made a reasonable fist of his role as a junior shadow minister and has been far more impressive than some of his colleagues who are actually in Shadow Cabinet.

    And that’s about it: Truss, Brandis, Joyce, Johnston, Dutton, Andrews, Hunt, Mirabella, Cobb, Billson, Hartsukyer, Baldwin, Ronaldson, Ley, Fierravanti-Wells and Bronnie: all mostly has beens, some (eg, Joyce and Brandis) something worse than that. There doesn’t seem to be much talent coming through: the likes of Mason, Payne, Fifield and Keenan have made very little impact at all. They should all try to take a leaf out of Cormann’s book, but I doubt that they have the talent.

  30. Stephen Jones calling for a ballot, just do it Labor. If Rudd doesn’t front up he can never lead again. If he does and wins, so be it

  31. Rupert and his mates want to get rid of a mildly progressive ALP government.
    Have wanted such for yonks.
    Bleedin’ obvious.

    They have utilised a relentless campaign of negativity and simple prejudices [xenophobia and misogyny for example] against such since day 1.

    They succeeded in getting rid of Rudd [remember Gretch, anti carbon campaign, anti mining campaign etc , stimulus ‘waste’] and then turned on Gillard viciously [check out numerous disgraceful Terrorgraph front pages].

    For years now they have, amongst multiple disinformation programmes [for example anti-global warming, NBN, class ‘warfare’] used the old tricks of planting discord in the ranks of their enemy [encouraging and highlighting Ruddsters’ whiteanting whilst ignoring such in their preferred party the COALition] and dividing the progressive forces so as to defeat them.

    To support a handful of Rudd malcontents, who are actively playing Rupert’s game for him, is to support and encourage King maker and Queen destroyer Rupert+ in his transparent schemes.
    If Rudd wins PM, if Gillard loses, then Rupert [plus allies] have succeeded in their task.

    Democracy, the will of the people as distinct from the will of one man plus a few others, will be the poorer in this country.

  32. While few would deny that Rupert Murdoch would prefer a Coalition government, the degree to which the ALP excusemongers on this forum seem to think he is puppetmastering Labor’s misfortunes is quite a frightening tableau of the paranoid and delusional mind.

  33. LIZZIE and MEHER BABA
    Gerald Durrell was a wonderful man and one of my friends snuck ooff and bought me his book My Family and Other Animals from the shop today, a lovely thought I really enjoyed my day today

  37. meher baba

    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    AA@210

    “Telling that the IPA could not name a Liberal PM that Abbott should emulate”

    I couldn’t give a toss what the IPA thinks about anything.

    However, I will be absolutely astonished if Abbott could even emulate about 25% of John Howard’s achievements as PM during his first two terms (ie, pre-Tampa, when the Howard Government basically left the planet for 5 years until coming back down and doing a few good things in its last 12 months around water, carbon pricing, some aspects of the NT Intervention, etc
    ——————————————————

    I have time for Hockey. He is well qualified as a banking and finance lawyer. The problem he has is having to measure his comments in line with the Party line and having to show support for Abbott when it is obvious Abbott is an economic minnow with no idea.

  39. @Victoria 217

    Absolutely no surprise there. That merely confirms that Labor’s internal poling is backing up published opinion polls. The report I heard this morning is that ALP internal poling has Labor looking at holding 30 to 35 seats after the next election. That would leave Labor in a worse position than after the December 1975 election. The fact that some people still want to do nothing in the face of this is beyond belief.

  40. Deniers recommend that Coloradians in the path of raging wildfires ignore the fires. The deniers say that references by fire managers to wildfire feeding on dead trees killed by drought and bark beetles are scientific furphies. Deniers say that the fire models are just that: only models. They stress that models are not reality. The deniers say that at least some of the data fed into the fire behaviour models is suspect. They also want authorities to investigate the probability that corrupt fire behaviour scientists are lighting fires and blaming them on lightning just so that they can get government funding to continue their useless research.

    http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2013/06/23/3064994/fire-rages-colo-town-braces-for.html

  41. matt31

    No one commenting on this blog can do anything. It is up to the caucus to decide the best way forward. They just need to be bloody well united whatever they do.

  45. ShowsOn@116


    Gillard should do the honourable thing and resign for the good of her party and for the good of the country. Her obstinate actions is simply going to help elect Tony Abbott and perhaps give him control of the Senate too!

    How the hell is it honourable for her to resign? Wouldn’t a resignation at this point basically be an admission that she’s screwed up, and doesn’t deserve to go to the election as party leader? If she doesn’t believe she’s screwed up like that then the honourable thing for her to do is to stick with the course of action that she believes reflects her work and the work of everyone in her government over the last three years, which presumably means leading that government to the election.

    Certainly at this point resigning in favour of Rudd would mean she’d done the incredibly hard work over the last three years, only to give up at the last hurdle – maybe, just maybe, that could be interpreted as honourable /of/ her, in that she’s taking the insanely, stupidly large hit to maybe make things better for her party, but the party and the nation itself would be acting in a totally dishonourable way /to/ her. Disregarding the polling history, Gillard has done an incredible job during this term – her government has achieved an enormous amount, instituted major reforms, guided the national economy through difficult times with great success, all against some very significant impediments. Surely at this point the honourable thing to do for /everyone/ involved would be to respect the work that she’s done and allow her to take that record of work to the people at an election?

    Seriouisly, ‘honourable’ doesn’t mean giving up when things get tough, or even when you may be facing defeat – the honourable course of action is to do right by people who have endeavoured, to the best of their abilities, to do what they believe is right.

    himi

  48. In the light of the reality of the polling, the total intransigence and unwavering support for the hollow wing of the party in control is like the same supporters’ vehement defence of Craig Thomson, a sneaky rorter of genuine unionists’ money – in defiance of 1100 pages of the proven reality. Beyond rational explanation. For example, “There are worse things than losing an election’.

  50. What the media and Liberal hacks got from Gillards recent speech; a clumsy warning about “men in blue ties” retaking centre stage in Australian politics, and a single sentence about abortion again becoming the “political plaything of men who think they know better”.

    What they all ignored: a summary of policy gains under Labor governments, including the Rudd and Gillard governments. It covered paid parental leave, the equal pay win by community service workers and the increase of the tax-free threshold to A$18,000 – of particular benefit to part-time and low-paid women workers.

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