The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.
UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.
According to the latest Nielsen it’s close to evens with only 3 points difference between females and males PPM.
but guys! People on my Twitter feed are all pro-Gillard and anti-Rudd! That’s the real opinion poll!
[Those who think Rudd should be leader of the ALP – I suggest you watch tonight’s Q&A – the poll of the audience starts around 36 minutes.
Overwhelming.]
That poll isn’t worth jack-shit because the audience by definition is self selecting and is not a random sample!
Why exactly are you posting such nonsense to a political polling blog?
The Australian reckons the Newspoll demonstrates that “more recent efforts to reignite the (misogyny) issue have failed to resonate with voters”. I don’t that doubt that it has failed, but as five-sixths of the poll was conducted prior to the “recent efforts” of which they speak, I don’t see how the result can be said to demonstrate it.
[ But she still has the PB Labor hack support – and that actually secretly means 99% of the population! ]
Carey, I suggest you watch that Q&A segment. Out of the whole audience, I think less about 5% wanted Gillard to step down.
Tony Jones was obviously flabbergasted.
But it is a good story William 🙂
[Carey, I suggest you watch that Q&A segment. Out of the whole audience, I think less about 5% wanted Gillard to step down.
Tony Jones was obviously flabbergasted.]
Do I even bother with this?
[ Coalition Voters in the audience? ]
I believe the Q & A audience are supposed to be selected to approximately match the voting intentions of the electorate.
Of course, even if you assume the audience was “stacked”, the result was astonishing – whether you assume it was stacked with ALP or LNP voters
The results are so out of kilter with the “official” polling that it’s absurd!
Kinda think that Rudd may have to ‘reluctantly’ challenge since everybody is begging him to.
Labor has a massive problem though if he does challenge. If he is unsuccessful I expect Labor to crash and burn like never before. The voting public will be totally fed up with Labor beyond repair.
However a better Rudd tactic might be to brazenly hold a press conference in light of all the publicity, all the talk, strong urging across the party that he challenge, however stating that it is not possible for him to challenge because of his promise and or that support for him has to be near unanimous among those that matter else it would be pointless…..that the position needs to be vacant.
[ I don’t that doubt that it has failed …]
I agree it hasn’t succeeded at anything, except perhaps a round of applause at the event it was given at, which I am of a strong view was the point and the main point, if not the only point of the comment.
Player One there is probably a reason for that but I don’t think it has much to do with feelings of love for the PM. It probably has more to do with that unsavory sign Abbott stood in front of a while back. Sad but true I think.
@TP/1459
It does sound like you really hope that Rudd isn’t PM again now lol.
[ Do I even bother with this? ]
Only if you’re interested in what people actually think, rather than assuming you already have all the answers.
Wasn’t that one of the comments so many of the trolls were making here earlier tonight? “Get out and see what ‘real people’ think?”
Didn’t look like an audience full of mannequins to me!
I see upsides either way …Rudd PM or not. The faceless men eat S-sandwich admitting their stupidity…or Labor get slaughtered and maybe a reset. Though the better method would be via victory.
The problem with Rudd becoming PM now, Gillard Labor having made a dogs breakfast of themselves, is that he might only save a lot of furniture and Gillard and those that installed her avoid their culpability… and the same old same old continue on as before.
No one think the ASU polling members on changing the PM is just slightly questionable?
davidwh@1461
No, I don’t think so. There is just no mood in the electorate to change the leadership of the ALP. Not in the official polling, and not when you ask people directly.
Which also means any polling about whether Rudd would win is being treated as a purely hypothetical question by voters, and the answer cannot be considered reliable – because they have no expectation of it actually happening.
If Rudd tries another leadership coup, I think he might get a nasty surprise. Especially as the next question on Q&A was WTTE “If the leadership does change, should we go straight to an election” – the response to that was the reverse – overwhelmingly “yes”.
In my view, this indicates that the voters didn’t like it much last time, and won’t tolerate it again. I think they would punish anyone who attempted it.
@TP/1464
Which I thought was the point of Rudd returning as PM about? Admitting their stupidity.
@Player One/1463
So you saying Q&A Audience is matching the polls? Which can be still very selective.
TP…can’t you find something else to gnaw on. There is no meat on that old bone.
[ No one think the ASU polling members on changing the PM is just slightly questionable? ]
Why? Doesn’t it sit well with your belief in “faceless men” and “union hacks” who don’t consult their own members?
Observing the ALP at the moment is like watching an episode of Ridiculousness.
You’re really kinda sheltered and clasping at straws there, Player One.
In the “real world” Gillard is not well received. She’s a punchline. People are treating September 14 as a day to clean up the mess. These aren’t Liberal hacks or wife-beaters either. These are regular people who are typical Labor voters.
Even those who most definitely will still vote or preference Labor are treating it as a “hold your nose and vote for her” or “she’s not Abbott” thing. Heck, people I know in the party, in private, are completely preoccupied with saving local furniture. Saving the government is no longer even an issue, it’s about saving some good local MPs from the tide. We don’t even talk about Gillard when talking about campaign stuff any more.
This is reality. And the people I know are usually educated (small L) liberal types or working class people and there’s very little love any more.
[ So you saying Q&A Audience is matching the polls? Which can be still very selective. ]
No – the Q&A audience was 95% against a leadership change. The polls are saying only 60% or so are against it.
This is a massive difference. Several orders of magnitude beyond “margin of error”.
Makes me wonder about the rest of the polling.
Player – it’s hardly a great time for the ALP to be doing it, is it.
Political Geniuses – do the ASU hate Gillard that much?
[Labor has a massive problem though if he does challenge. If he is unsuccessful I expect Labor to crash and burn like never before. The voting public will be totally fed up with Labor beyond repair.]
Yeah I think you are right. If Rudd challenges and loses a 29% Primary vote will seem awesome.
[Observing the ALP at the moment is like watching an episode of Ridiculousness.]
Only if you listen to the LNP voice over, if you actually look at the good governing, it is simply impressive.
1447
Player One
[>Just incredible…
Well, it would be if it was true.]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZMoB6ms2mE
One of his best. 🙂
Player – the Q&A audience is self selected political nerds – most of the Liberals there probably support Turnbull still.
Not even close to being representative of society – they watch Q&A to start with and voluntarily go on an ABC show on a Monday Night.
Player One@1472
What it should make you wonder about is whether the Q+A audience is a valid polling sample, rather than about the rest of the polling. No matter how hard they try to balance their sample politically it remains the case that their sample is biased because it consists of people who want to be in the Q+A audience, which the great majority of people do not seek to do.
Additionally, a vote following a panel discussion is not a valid sampling method because information in the discussion “primes” respondents. A better indication is obtained when people are asked a question cold.
Also, re the other polling, it’s not true 60% or so are against leadership change. That poll specifically canvassed the idea of Gillard stepping down. Some people may support change but believe Rudd should be made to challenge for it.
Not too mention the fact that many of those Liberals want Gillard to stay because they see her as the opponent who will yield them the best results.
Either way, dissecting something like an audience vote on Q&A is not constructive or informative in any way. You might just as well be dissecting an online poll or your social networking feeds.
[ You’re really kinda sheltered and clasping at straws there, Player One. ]
No, I don’t think so. The Q&A audience tonight actually matches my own experience far more closely than the “official” polls currently do.
Sure, Gillard may not win the election – that’s always on the cards. But nobody – on either side – actually wants to see Rudd back!
They’re so over the whole leadershit thing that they will punish anyone who tries to stir up again.
Kevin Rudd going to China on Thursday:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kevin-rudds-china-trip-may-bring-on-showdown/story-fn59niix-1226669020834
So Today, Wednesday or Friday?
[ Kevin Rudd going to China on Thursday: ]
Oh no! It’s on! Rudd always challenges when he’s offshore!
Player One@1480
Diehard Libs don’t want Rudd back because they fear he would be more competitive. The rump of Labor support leans towards Gillard because a lot of the Rudd diehards have already left.
[1200
confessions
Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 9:32 pm | Permalink
The likelihood increases every day that we are going to have a recession whether we “need” one or not.
Why do you say this, btw? You do seem rather pessimistic lately.]
Why?…partly from fear of the LNP, but also, to cut a long story short:
Globally…
the bubble in bond markets has burst
interest rates are rising
growth is already weak and getting worse
growth in trade is feeble and getting worse
China is slowing quickly, their financial sector is in trouble and their capital investment growth model has run out of grunt
Prices of metals, LNG and agricultural goods are falling, but oil prices are not
In this economy…
real disposable per capita incomes are falling
labour demand is falling (hours worked and hours per month/worker)
nominal GDP growth is very low, something usually only seen during recessions
growth in export demand is receding and may become negative
depreciation will reduce real wages…and consumption, production, jobs, etc
domestic demand is already recessionary
banking and property are very exposed to any rise in unemployment
the budget is busted
P1
You are using the same flawed logic you used the other night to suggest that the majority of respondents want Gillard to stand her ground.
Please, elucidate as to why coalition voters prefer Gillard as leader?
I daresay there are quite a few (more vocal) Gillard supporters who only support her because she’s the incumbent and supporting a challenge is disagreeing with the party and challenging their belief of its infallibility. If Rudd becomes leader this week, they will switch to him, without any hesitation and will act as if they always loved him. If they’re called on the switch they’ll either claim they support the party regardless of who leads, or just flat out deny their opinion was ever different.
[1482
Player One
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 12:44 am | Permalink
Kevin Rudd going to China on Thursday:
Oh no! It’s on! Rudd always challenges when he’s offshore!]
Highly predictable: Rudd has no intention of leading, only of wreaking havoc for Labor. He is a scoundrel and should be expelled as soon as Parliament rises.
[The Australian reckons the Newspoll demonstrates that “more recent efforts to reignite the (misogyny) issue have failed to resonate with voters”. I don’t that doubt that it has failed, but as five-sixths of the poll was conducted prior to the “recent efforts” of which they speak, I don’t see how the result can be said to demonstrate it.]
Bit brave of you there William.
I live in a Liberal area, and speak to many women in my travels around the suburb (dog-walking acquaintances).
Love Gillard or loathe her, vote for her or not (and there are plenty of those), I haven’t spoken to one who doesn’t stick up for her as a woman and her efforts to talk about gender.
It’s a very blokey thing to dismiss women’s issues and discussion of sexism and misogyny as trite or contrived. You’re showing your age (whatever your age is).
briefly – I think your best hope is for the voters of Griffith to wise up.
Wall Street agrees with me…suggesting I’m probably wrong!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/24/us-markets-stocks-idUSBRE95N0HT20130624
[(Reuters) – Stocks extended losses on Monday, falling more than 1 percent after the S&P 500 index’s biggest weekly decline in two months, as investors repriced shares in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s plans to withdraw its stimulus.
Investor sentiment also was hurt by a cash crunch in China, which could further slow Chinese growth. Markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong suffered heavy losses.
Concerns the Fed may be planning to reduce its stimulus pushed up yields on 10-year Treasuries to more than 2.6 percent, its highest level since August 2011, prompting strength in the dollar, which in turn dented commodity prices.
The NYSE Arca gold bugs index .HUI lost 3.2 percent and the PHLX gold/silver sector index .XAU fell 2.9 percent.
Banking shares in China tumbled to their biggest daily loss in almost four years after the People’s Bank of China said banks needed to do a better job of managing their cash and lending as the central bank attempts to move the world’s second largest economy away from credit-driven investment.]
[Highly predictable: Rudd has no intention of leading, only of wreaking havoc for Labor. He is a scoundrel and should be expelled as soon as Parliament rises.]
If this were really true he and his supporters would have resigned from Parliament. And if those wanting to expel him had courage and integrity, they’d have been calling for him to be expelled months ago. Any port in a storm huh …
I’ve just watched the QANDA segment and it’s not even true that the audience clearly opposed leadership change. Only a small number put their hands up when asked to put their hands up if they believed there should be a leadership change specifically this week. Then there was a question on whether if there was a change there should be an election right away, which got a big show of hands. At no point were people asked to put up their hands if they thought Gillard should stay PM. For all we know most of the audience might not have had any firm preference.
Golden rule of understanding polling: always examine the question asked.
[No, I don’t think so. There is just no mood in the electorate to change the leadership of the ALP. Not in the official polling, and not when you ask people directly.]
The official Nielsen poll asked for preferred PM, of which Rudd scored 50%. You ignore this significant figure in favour of the meaningless figure questioning whether Gillard should stand aside which included LNP voters.
Then you go on to indicate a qanda audience is representative with exactly the same meaningless question.
I’m pretty sure Gillard supporters have far more enthusiasm to appear on qanda compared to Rudd supporters. Whatever, the Neilsen figure is the most accurate measure we have. Dispute this if you wish, but on a psephological blog, how certain are you that you will make any sense?
[Also, re the other polling, it’s not true 60% or so are against leadership change. That poll specifically canvassed the idea of Gillard stepping down. Some people may support change but believe Rudd should be made to challenge for it.]
I know what it is that annoys me personally about poll driven analysis like this.
It discounts humanity and allows no room for persuasion or argument.
We are not metrics Kevin, no matter how often your spreadsheets tell you we are.
Expelling Rudd? That’s exactly the image the ALP needs to be competitive in this era – to be a closed-knit organisation that eliminates anyone who inconveniences them. (It’s up to you whether you prefer “Stalinist” or “Mafia” as a description)
Has this site not learned anything from the last three years?!
crank, I suspect the citizens of Griffith will stick with KR to the bitter end.
You better get your party to revise their currently deranged policies on climate change. They are completely reckless.
It would seem then that all efforts by women politicians to invoke sexism in pursuit of their political objectives are successful by definition.
[1495
Carey Moore
Expelling Rudd? That’s exactly the image the ALP needs to be competitive in this era – to be a closed-knit organisation that eliminates anyone who inconveniences them. (It’s up to you whether you prefer “Stalinist” or “Mafia” as a description)
Has this site not learned anything from the last three years?!]
Treachery cannot be condoned in politics. It has to be met with expulsion…sorry…just the way it’s always been. 🙂
[Highly predictable: Rudd has no intention of leading, only of wreaking havoc for Labor. He is a scoundrel and should be expelled as soon as Parliament rises.]
Your Rudd hatred knows no bounds.
Show a bit of respect to someone who is a former Labor Prime Minister of Australi;, a party that you supposedly support but have a bizarre way of showing it.
[Treachery cannot be condoned in politics. It has to be met with expulsion…sorry…just the way it’s always been. ]
So Julia Gillard should be expelled for failing to support Kevin Rudd.
Just taking your idiocy to its illogical conclusion.