Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition

An eagerly awaited Newspoll has both parties down on the primary vote and little change to two-party preferred. Headline grabber: Labor primary vote below 30%.

The Australian’s Troy Bramston tweets that Newspoll has the Coalition leading 57-43, down from 58-42 last time. However, the poll has Labor’s primary vote below 30% for the first time this year, down one to 29%, with the Coalition also down a point to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has reached a new peak of 45-33, up from 43-35 at the last poll three weeks ago, but personal ratings are little changed: Julia Gillard is steady at 28% approval and 62% disapproval, while Abbott is down one to 36% and steady at 53%.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has Labor down on a point on the primary vote for the second week in a row, now down to 34% with the Coalition and the Greens steady at 47% and 8%. The Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred is up from 54-46 to 55-45. Also covered were intention to vote for a different party in the Senate (9% yes, 67% no); leaders attributes (Julia Gillard for some reason doing better than when the question was last asked in April, and Tony Abbott slightly worse); support for a long list of decisions made by the Rudd-Gillard government, the only net negative result being for the carbon tax; Tony Abbott’s intention to scrap the Gonski education reforms (32% approve, 44% disapprove); and sexism and discrimination against women.

UPDATE 2 (Morgan): The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll reverses an unusually good result for Labor last week, with the Coalition up 2.5% to 47% and Labor down the same amount to 30.5%, with the Greens unchanged at 9%. The Coalition’s two-party preferred lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56.5-43.5 on preferences from the previous election, and from 53.5-46.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent allocation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,545 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Chard, not surprising, lots of LNP voters who litter twitter with calls to allow them to vote her out. Also lots of ALP rusties who support the machine. Rudd’s support comes from the less politically engaged, hence their preparedness to vote LNP and not spend their time trying to get their faces on TV to flog their party.

  2. And as far as I know the only bit of the women for gillard speech seen is that little bit about the ties. I assume the rest is somewhere, but it is not in the msm that I can see. But they burnt witches for the one wart on their otherwise healthy bodies, so it is business as usual I see.

  3. [Rudd’s support comes from the less politically engaged, hence their preparedness to vote LNP and not spend their time trying to get their faces on TV to flog their party.]
    Yes you are right. A significant portion of Rudd’s support is from people in the general community who trust Rudd a lot more than they trust either of the major parties. Turnbull has a similar sort of support in the same way.

    Gillard and Abbott on the other hand are just considered creatures of their parties and in fact examples of the worst aspects of their parties.

  7. I know I said I wouldn’t comment on it any more, but one last thought:

    I think the problem is people mistakenly think facts and perception are the same thing in politics. They seem that way because perception is the most important thing in politics, so it’s almost comforting to believe that how something is perceived must also be a true.

    The Gillard speech was a lemon. It was desperate and intentionally divisive (whereas the parliamentary misogyny speech highlighted Abbott’s divisiveness) and the voters saw it that way and punished her for it.

    However, it doesn’t automatically make what was said in the speech untrue. There is still a big sexism problem in society that needs to be addressed. And it goes beyond whether or not Gillard is PM. Dismissing the entirety of the point is just as bad as acting as though it was a masterstroke.

    Taking an idiom literally just means you’re a moron.

    Actually the original point can apply to a lot of things discussed here. Facts and perception thereof don’t always agree in politics but perception will always be the winner in that conflict. Saying “talk about policy!” won’t change that.

    I’ll be quiet now.

  8. [By your logic, therefore whatever comes out his mouth shows him to be of sound judgement.]

    Says it all really. Getting flogged in the polls by a party who seems to have unsound judgement. Unfortunately, with respect to Australia, what may seem unsound to us actually does resonate with others. I coldn’t understand how a dweeb such as Howard could remain PM for so long, or even get voted in. But this is our country and we have to live with this political reality.

  10. [ Yes you are right. A significant portion of Rudd’s support is from people in the general community who trust Rudd a lot more than they trust either of the major parties. Turnbull has a similar sort of support in the same way. ]

    I’ll make a deal with you Showy – you guys roll Abbott in favor of Turnbull, and I’ll agree to roll Gillard in favor of Rudd.

    Sound fair?

  11. [Her Majesty The Queen is a woman, but that’s not enough for you?]

    Who is only in that position because she was born into a family where there was no male heir. Not the best argument.

  12. [I’ll make a deal with you Showy – you guys roll Abbott in favor of Turnbull, and I’ll agree to roll Gillard in favor of Rudd.]

    I’M IN!!!!!!!

  16. [ Wait, I just saw the original version of that post and realised there was a wink denoting irony. I apologise and withdraw comment #1411 ]

    Yes ok, I suppose I should do the same.

  17. I will say though Fess, Rudd’s victory was an extremely positive event for me, proof that we weren’t a nation with a majority of arsewipes.

  19. [Actually the original point can apply to a lot of things discussed here. Facts and perception thereof don’t always agree in politics but perception will always be the winner in that conflict. Saying “talk about policy!” won’t change that.]

    Sad but true. But perception is mutable, isn’t it? I feel like I have to give “talk about policy” at least a small chance. Can’t just let perceptions go unchallenged.

  20. [The Gillard speech was a lemon.]

    I thought it was great – and I say that having actually read the whole speech.

    That the media has latched onto one aspect of it and used it to fuel division isn’t her fault, but as others have pointed out, the same thing happened with the misogyny speech, and look at how that panned out.

  23. [confessions
    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 11:36 pm | PERMALINK
    …….That the media has latched onto one aspect of it and used it to fuel division isn’t her fault,]

    No, nothing is her fault is it? :devil:

  26. Damn facts – they get in the way of denigrating the Labor Govt…

    Memo to All from LOTO – talk about Rudd and Blue ties. Our mission is not to let this information get out to the voting public

    The facts are these.

    Labor – returning the Budget to balance faster than most of the developed world.

    Our net debt – one-third Canada’s, one-fifth Germany’s and one-eighth the size of the United States.

    Our nation’s best ever credit rating. Interest rates are low. Inflation is contained.

    The average tax to GDP ratio under Labor, well below the previous Coalition Government.

    Since Labor came to power, the Australian economy has grown by 14 per cent.

    And the bottom line of all bottom lines: under Labor, our nation has created more than 950,000 jobs.

  27. [confessions
    Posted Monday, June 24, 2013 at 11:39 pm | PERMALINK
    ML:

    Not usually, no.]

    Good of you to admit your position openly!

    Good night. 🙂

  29. [Yes, apologies to mimhoff if so.]

    No worries.

    I was deliberately being silly–I don’t think someone who a) came into her position by inheritance; and b) is a figurehead who isn’t involved in decision-making, is a great symbol of equality.

  33. Anyone here still believe Kev will be PM at the end of the week? The fact his supporters are busy burning bridges with the likes of Combet suggest even they see it all as wholly futile.

    Could have told them that 18 months ago, but glad they finally caught up. Wankers.

  36. Puffy

    I understand many women feel somewhat oppressed in a still male dominated society but a PM has to govern for all people and shouldn’t diss a large proportion of society

  38. Ouch

    [Labor’s primary vote has also slumped in the past three months in the same areas where Ms Gillard’s support has fallen, with the Coalition holding double-digit, two-party-preferred leads in every state except South Australia, where it is eight points ahead, and Victoria, where Labor holds a slim lead.
    ]

    Does that include Tassie?

  39. Whenever it comes out it won’t be pretty. It has been consistently bad for Labor for the whole quarter where the March quarter results at least had early reasonable polls to soften the pain.

  40. Also the second I heard the blue tie remark I thought ‘oh, she’s talking about conservative politicians who stereotypically wear blue ties’. It didn’t occur to me some would interpret this to mean the PM thinks anyone who puts on a blue tie automatically hates women.

    Then again I’m not a complete fucking idiot but there you go.

  41. @Dio/1438

    Seems to be the case, if that doesn’t make Caucus do something this week then I don’t know what will.

  44. I thought the blue tie example was just a bit of political spin. From my perspective I thought the emphasis on men in leadership positions being a problem and introducing abortion into the political argument were the issues that had the negative effect. The media has just used the blue ties to spin these points sort of like the PM did but in reverse.

    I also think “Women for Gillard” just fell flat in the Australian context.

  48. She’s lost her strength amongst women, she’s lost the faith of many a party figure (even those loyal to her are shopping around) and lost her strength in Victoria and SA.

    She’s pretty much managed to wedge every demographic, right and left against her.

    But she still has the PB Labor hack support – and that actually secretly means 99% of the population!

  49. ShowsOn

    “Abbott now almost as popular amongst women as Gillard.

    Just incredible…”

    Yes, the true depth of the Australian voters’ stupidity is coming to light, exposed for all to see. Thoroughly depressing, but once you accept the nonce behind you in line for the voting booth is likely functionally illiterate and couldn’t pass a year 9 civics pop-quiz our current political situation makes a lot of sense.

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