Two new poll findings to start the day with:
• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.
• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.
Ha. this is good in response to Tim Colebatch’s article in the Age:
Why don’t we process climate change offshore. Lets send climate change to East Timor or Malaysia and put it at the back of the queue. This would leave space for more legitimate climate to come to Australia. If the Climate doesn’t want to follow the proper process, and just turns up uninvited. We should be brave enough to tow it back (when it is safe). We should also remove the right of family reunion, for climate that cannot prove hasn’t changed. We need to listen to the expert panel of eminent scientists. STOP THE CLIMATE.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/climate-change-abbott-must-get-off-the-fence-20130624-2osom.html#ixzz2XBLaAKbG
no one can argue that labor would be in front
If the opinion polling was done on who is the better party to lead the country and who has the better policies for the people and country
WeWantPaul
[Why would Abbott participate in a debate?]
If he cares about democracy and wants an informed electorate?
Aussie, the debates rarely change votes. Howard always lost the debates yet still won government.
Abbott would not be leading the liberal party this day, if the opinion polling wasnt the media’s agenda
Because if Abbott does not participate in debate(s) he will be rightly seen as a coward.
[You never know, the change of leadershiip might very well occur before the writs are issued. Much like what occurred with Hayden and Hawke. Of course, they were in opposition at the time, and Fraser just happened to call a snap election at the very same time Hayden resigned and Hawke elected as leader.]
True. But, given polling which divides & reports replies to the Leadershite question by preferred political party, Labor voters DON’T support Rudd – though Coalition voters do. Nor do women voters – and women represent more than half of Aussie voters.
BUT … I don’t believe current Leadershite hysteria is about the election – yet – or ever has been.
On the Opposition side, it’s ALWAYS been about getting into government Abbott and a pliant proMurdoch, proMiners, proMiddle-Class-Welfare, antiMedia regulation etc Opposition. On the Labor side, it’s always been about Rudd’s ego & antiGillard mischief-making.
Or, if that fails, as it has, the Opposition’s backers want Rudd to win a Leadershite ballot. But they DON’T want Rudd as PM for more time than it takes for the Indies to refuse to support any PM but Gillard, so Abbott the Gutless can finally move – and win – a No Confidence motion.
It’s never about Leadership. For the LNP & RWers, since pre-Election01, it’s always been about the wealthy, the powerful, and keeping on side religions, esp Evangelical, and the sort of groups/ people who support Pauline Hanson-style policies.
Right now, it’s primarily about stopping Government Legislation before it’s implemented on 1 July 2013!
lynchpin
Abbott will be another Hewson
Newsltd and the pro coalition media knows it, why they are hiding Abbott
Kevin rudd would not be an issue if the opinion polling companies were not influence or pressured by the media
The only redeeming feature of an Abbott victory will be the end of this drivel from Meguire Bob. Unless of course he starts declaring the election as a fantasy poll driven by Murdoch.
Labor would be heading for a big win by default if the opinion companies were not influence or pressured by the media’s agenda of protecting their puppet Abbott
[Is it possible. Yes.
Is it likely. No.]
Agree with Player One.
Haydn
The facts are opinion companies have no choice to follow the media’s agenda
Aka morgan polling were pressured by newsltd late last year to follow the pro coalition media agenda
Socrates
[ Now Abbott will win and gain the Senate, and all Labor reforms except the NDIS, can be lkissed gooodbye. ]
I’m sure the pundits were saying this about Gough’s reforms in 1975. Just as they were saying that Labor was gone for a generation and that Gough had led an incompetent government.
As for ‘the party divided’ – really, it isn’t. The bulk of MPs and the bulk of the party are ‘anti Rudd’. Most of Rudd’s support is grudging – it’s based on the belief that he can win the election (or at least do better than Gillard) rather than that he is/was/can be a superior leader or that he offers anything else to the party and the nation beyond better polling figures.
Given that most of Rudd’s support is purely based on polling and not on idealism, when it comes to the core of things the party itself isn’t split at all.
If Rudd had left the Parliament in 2010, there would be little or no ‘disunity’. If Rudd leaves at the September election, there will be little or no ‘disunity’.
Rudd isn’t a symptom, he’s the disease. Get rid of him and most of the perceived problems go too.
Disclaimer: all parties need renewal and change. All parties should be doing that as a given.
Good Morning
I see the MSM is in hyperdrive to excuse their crap of the last two weeks on leadership.
No names no numbers its all MSM BS. Boy did a lot of people fall for it.
“Advisers’ eh? Well, there’s one s457 visa that has been rorted, at least:
[Ms Gillard, who has spent her career eschewing feminine cliches, was reportedly encouraged to be photographed knitting by her advisers, according to the magazine.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/pm-tries-to-knit-herself-out-of-the-poll-doldrums-20130625-2otl5.html#ixzz2XBNCQgKE
Lynchpin
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:10 am | Permalink
Aussie, the debates rarely change votes. Howard always lost the debates yet still won government.
——————————————————–
I think this will be one of those “rare” occasions.
The “other” percentage in the polling means a substantial number of people have yet to be convinced which of the major parties to vote for. The debates could be the decider for them.
And Abbott will debate but he is on a looser either way. He is a lousy communicator unless there are less than 5 words and if he says NO he will be seen as avoiding debating his policies and branded gutless. And that raises the other problem he will have, he wont be able to help himself…he will rant about bad govt instead of talking about his policies…and that will turn off voters
“@SummersAnne: Sh have said on @QandA that #abortion bill limiting Medicare rebate is before Senate NOW. Ctee will recommend on it TODAY. Will keep posting”
“Does anyone in Australia, other than Meguire Bob, think the ALP can win the next election?”
Yes. The confected rubbish is drowning out what is really going on.
Psephology is closer to phrenology at the moment
Those of you doubting the debate effects on votes need to answer this question to prove those that do think they will.
Why has Abbott avoided QandA for over 1000 days?
“If he cares about democracy and wants an informed electorate?”
Thanks for the laugh!
MB,
No doubt you are right. How dare the polling companies ask such propaganda questions as “Who do you intend to vote for”
I wonder if those bagging Gillard’s knitting realise how offensive that is?
I used to work with a woman who came across as really ‘butch’ – policeman’s daughter, in the Army Reserves, short cropped hair, the whole cliche.
She and I used to share potpourri recipes. I remember how outraged she was when another staff member commented that she ‘didn’t think you’d be into stuff like that’.
Because – if equality means anything – we shouldn’t put down any PM for knitting, male or female.
“@sortius: You know what’s funny, the media attacking the PM for knitting is just going to lose readers that knit. Good show hacks! #ausmedia”
Something to think about: How do the polling companies contact 18-25yo’s on a LAND LINE over the weekend? #AusPol pic.twitter.com/QoEzaaQmcS
[If he cares about democracy and wants an informed electorate?
]
You should turn pro that is hilarious!
It has now been established that Rudd wants the leadership, but only if he gets it handed to him with the full support of caucus. If this does not occur, the party go to the election with JG at the helm. She will wear a sweet victory or a resounding defeat.
“@latikambourke: And of course 7 crossing the floor. Did Tony Abbott misread his partyroom?”
This on local government vote. Good to see one journalist noting LNP division.
[It has now been established that Rudd wants the leadership, but only if he gets it handed to him with the full support of caucus. If this does not occur, the party go to the election with JG at the helm. She will wear a sweet victory or a resounding defeat.]
Makes perfect sense to me and is consistent with Rudd not contesting when Crean had his hissy fit.
Haydn
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:27 am | PERMALINK
MB,
No doubt you are right. How dare the polling companies ask such propaganda questions as “Who do you intend to vote for”
—————————–
They dont just ask that
the propaganda they are forced to asked is
leadership
awu and other crap
and will not dare to ask anything negative concerning the pro coalition media’s puppet abbott
Van Badham @vanbadham 11h
And another, very sincere, response from a LIberal voter on violence against the PM: #qanda pic.twitter.com/h6Evw2vlsq
zoomster
[“I’m sure the pundits were saying this about Gough’s reforms in 1975. Just as they were saying that Labor was gone for a generation and that Gough had led an incompetent government.’]
Except there is absolutely no comparison between the two governments. Gough wanted to reform this country and proceeded to do so through strength of leadership. His was the greatest reforming government in our history. To compare the current cowardly careerist pragmatic dopes around the leadership to the Whitlam government is absurd.
The other point to be made is that the split is between the pragmatic spin kings versus those horrified the party has been taken over by pragmatists lurching to the Libs.
That’s why Faulkner and Tanner stepped out immediately following the takeover by a new factional agglomeration in June 2010. That’s why others have stepped out since as the chance to fix it has faded.
When that is clearly the essence of it, to continue to characterise this split as merely Gillard v Rudd is disingenuous, and designed to paper over what has happened in the interests of your own factional group. The leadership is just the tip of the internal division iceberg.
Opinion polling companies should by law only ask
– who do people intend to vote for
the if an election was held now should be outlawed
– opinion polling companies should only be allowed to asked about policies for government and alternative not just one side
jv
No more than in the LNP. Just MSM making up crap
Funny thing. Assange holed up in an Embassy in London knows where Snowden is but USA with its vast resources is scrambling about looking for him.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/24/us-urges-russia-edward-snowden-pursuit
Seriously, so many of the operations of the USA can easily be mistken as actions of undemocratic nations and unelected distators.
@srpeatling: We’re running some greatest hits of the 43rd Parliament on #thepulselive today. I’d love to hear your suggestions http://t.co/vFQ9hYd3uh
MB sadly for you it doesn’t matter how many times you blame the media for Labor’s problems it won’t change the reality that they have massive problems almost impossible to overcome. Reality is reality regardless of the unfairness of the causes.
Hey but stay positve just don’t do anything silly on the 15 September 😉
Victoria
[“It has now been established that Rudd wants the leadership, but only if he gets it handed to him with the full support of caucus. If this does not occur, the party go to the election with JG at the helm. She will wear a sweet victory or a resounding defeat.”]
That was established a long time ago. The question is whether the current cabal in charge since 2010 is prepared to go away and leave caucus to re-align itself around leaders interested in philosophy and progressive policy again, rather than just their own careers and those of their minions. Why would Rudd and his backers accept the leadership on any other terms? It would be pointless.
Similarly pointless in terms of the future of the party would be another new leader to be installed by the current cabal, with them remaining in control.
THE Australian Greens are demanding Opposition Leader Tony Abbott make clear how he plans to repeal the carbon tax in government.
“It’s time for some serious discussion on carbon,” leader Christine Milne told reporters in Canberra on Tuesday.
“The coalition remains all over the shop on the issue of exactly how Tony Abbott thinks he’s going to repeal the carbon price.”
Senator Milne said the coalition would not be able to roll back the carbon tax while the Greens stood firm in the Senate.
“”Does anyone in Australia, other than Meguire Bob, think the ALP can win the next election?””
Compared to the alternative= YES
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgjGWYZSVUA
davidwh@ 137
Sadly for the media , will they be able to keep abbott out of the spotlight and stop the hewson affect from repeating
The only time people seriously listened to hewson and didnt like what they heard
it will be the same with abbott
@BarackObama: President Obama promised to take action on #climate change. Tomorrow, see how he is keeping his word. http://t.co/d56R2ZAzHs
This will be a problem for Abbott. The USA has been the last defence of other countries don’t do Climate Change action.
People are not listening to abbott or the coalition because the pro coalition media is protecting them
Davidwh
If you claim people didnt like the dirty propaganda in old why they voted labor out
then how possibly can news ltd/abbott coalition win ?
@MikeCarlton01: Swanny makes some good points, not least about Goldman Sachs and that pompous windbag Judith Sloan.@SwannyDPM https://t.co/jjhgdkSfQC
j.v.
[Except there is absolutely no comparison between the two governments.]
Actually, there are bucketloads – a reformist Prime Minister brought down by the Murdoch press, just for starters.
[ Gough wanted to reform this country and proceeded to do so through strength of leadership.]
Right. So people here are worrying unnecessarily that Labor’s reforms will be wound back under Abbott because there haven’t been any, I assume.
Gough put in reforms. He lost the election.
By the standards of the pro – Rudd forces, losing the election means that anything else he did is irrelevant, because winning elections is all that counts.
[ To compare the current cowardly careerist pragmatic dopes around the leadership to the Whitlam government is absurd. ]
You’re using history to judge one PM and present day invective to judge another.
History is going to be very kind to Gillard and her government, win, lose or draw in September. In fact, it’ll be very hard for historians to explain why the government was so unpopular, given the actual lack of evidence that things have gone that badly on their watch.
The media will have plenty of time to focus on TAPM after September MB. I expect they will give him plenty of attention once they have him where they want him. It could get ugly because when you are PM it’s much harder to maintain a low profile.
When people awake from falling zombie to the pro coalition media lies and propaganda
The Gillard government will win by default
Veteran Nationals senator Ron Boswell blamed the carbon tax for the recent woes of the car manufacturing industry.
“There’s a $600 carbon tax … on every car in Australia – no wonder we’re uncompetitive,” he said.
——————————————————–
The Coalition have upped the bidding on how much the carbon price is adding to the cost of a car. Abbott claimed $400.
PricewaterhouseCoopers stated that government assistance to the industry would reduce the carbon price impact on the cost per vehicle to a range of $121 to $215. The mid level of this range is $168, close to a reported $150 per vehicle stated by car industry spokesmen in news reports when the carbon price was announced.
And still no mention of the 30% pay rise for executives while Holden lost %150 million
davidwh
Some in the pro coalition media from 2011, have admitted if abbott doesnt get into government before the 2013 election , people will wake up and listen to the election campaign
where labor will likely be retain at the election
@Lynchpin 89
Sorry to be blunt, but I give Labor no chance at all. The points that I believe get missed on here, particularly by those fixated on Gillard, is that at this election, the electorate are not all that interested in the alternative, they are simply interested in accomplishing one thing, and that is voting Gillard out. I hear it every day, everywhere I go. This election reminds me so much of 1996. It really did not matter what John Howard said or did, because people had made their minds up. Suggesting that debates, (or the one debate that Abbott is likely to agree to) is going to create a great awakening, that people will realise that Gillard is actually the best thing that ever happened to them, and that Gillard Labor will sweep to victory, is pure fantasy. Gillard is the problem. But the power brokers are backed in to a corner, because they got it so spectacularly wrong back in 2010, then attempted to character assassinate Rudd in 2012, that now they find it impossible to do what they need to do to make Labor electorally competitive.
Now, take Gillard out of the equation, and install Rudd, and Labor’s chances of winning do rise. I still believe it would be unlikely, but I have no doubt Labor would do significantly better. That now appears increasingly unlikely, so I can see no other result for Labor other than absolute decimation, and if this morning’s cringeworthy photo is anything to go by, we are likely to see a campaign every bit as bad as the “real Julia” campaign of 2010.