Two new poll findings to start the day with:
• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.
• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.
“@bellfrances: Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews says Labor’s Public Transport spokeswoman Fiona Richardson has been diagnosed with breast cancer. #springst”
From previous thread:
Well said Kevin Bonham, you nailed this charlatan beautifully.
If Tony Abbott wants to leave a lasting impact – and secure his place in history – he needs to take his inspiration from Australia’s most left-wing prime minister.
No prime minister changed Australia more than Gough Whitlam.
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For all the talk about how good TA would be as PM even the IPA are calling for him to emulate a former Labor PM. They couldn’t find a former Liberal PM worth him emulating.
They don’t want TA they want a Gough replica.
bemused
@ 152
Incorrect , the opinion polling are rubbish
Canberra update: It’s stopped raining. Nothing is happening in Caucus. Apparently there will be no Friday sitting. Rudd leaves for China on Friday. It’s all beginning to look rather anticlimactic.
They have and will not show the real data of people’s opinion
the opinion polling companies have no choice but to be in timid by the pro coalition media
Zoomster
If Rudd had left the parliament in 2010, firstly Abbott would be in government because the seat of Griffith would have gone to the LNP
However even if by some miracle they had won the election, with the MANY, MANY mistakes made by Gillard she would have been deposed in 2011. Shorten or Combet would have made the move and the party would be JUST as divided as ever.
For a political candidate you can be very naive
The only thing that has s
Psephos
It was reported that Rudd was leaving for China on Thursday afternoon.
After this week i think pyne showed yesterday what news ltd/abbott coalition will focus on more repetitive scandals propaganda
how can people consider news ltd/abbott coalition when they are not concern for the country or its people
[Well said Kevin Bonham, you nailed this charlatan beautifully.]
Often reminds me of the West Wing episode with Josh and the website people.
@guytaur
[@bellfrances: Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews says Labor’s Public Transport spokeswoman Fiona Richardson has been diagnosed with breast cancer. #springst]
Wow can strike anyone, I have known Fi a long time and if her determination and drive to beat it is anything like what she puts into the ALP and the Labor movement then it will hopefully be a minor inconvenience!
psephos
I posited this earlier
[You never know, the change of leadershiip might very well occur before the writs are issued. Much like what occurred with Hayden and Hawke. Of course, they were in opposition at the time, and Fraser just happened to call a snap election at the very same time Hayden resigned and Hawke elected as leader]
zoomster
Your comparison remains absurd. Gillard cannot be compared with Whitlam on any level. They are on different planets; no, different solar systems.
The fact that you feel able to assert that Gillard is a ‘reformist’ prime minister fatally undermines the rest as it is demonstrably laughable.
Dragged kicking and screaming was the government into reform on carbon and dental care, purely due to the minority government agreements. They have been regressive on just about everything else, including taxation and education. It has been typified by fear about leading on progressive change. That’s why it proudly ‘cleared the decks’ in 2010; shelved the carbon scheme, and lurched to the right on issues like refugees; and has been more socially conservative than the Libs.
Also, neither PM was “brought down by the Murdoch press”. Both were responsible for their own demise. Whitlam because his ministers were going too far, and the treasurer was unable rein in expenditure. Gillard because she alienated the progressive vote and has failed to demonstrate leadership to the rest of the electorate; has no judgment; and is run by pragmatists.
susanai @susanrat 14m
I liked a @YouTube video http://youtu.be/-Txu451r014?a How Tony Abbott Answers the Tough Questions
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based on what we see in this video- Do people really think Abbott can manage in a debate???
matt31
agreed and well said. commonsense. you dont need a degree in pol science to state the obvious. maybe in pol psychology. julia is tooo close to party and its dynamics. this is the election for labor to loose and they seem to be able to do so in epic proportions and with magnaminity and leadership, not just of party but of australian nation and people. not my sort of party really – first time no vote in life coming up if they cant get act together.
[Gillard because she alienated the progressive vote and has failed to demonstrate leadership to the rest of the electorate; has no judgment; and is run by pragmatists.]
I couldn’t careless about the progressive vote it has nowhere to go – but lack of leadership is the clincher – her one bright moment was the speech in P on misogyny – and the polls reacted – not because most Aussies care about misogyny but because it looked real and strong and committed.
Huh!
Just contacted someone Head Office referred to me as a potential volunteer — “Just cross me off the list if Rudd becomes the leader, please.”
To all those ‘jelly-backs”out here who cower before the MSM. and the “polls”…..excuse me if I use a specific-gender metaphore, but by Christ if some of you even have the capacity to “man-up”and grasp the challenge of denying that bastard “Neo-yankee” coming here to corrupt our media and our politics with his cringing hangers-on!
By christ!…just “listening” to some of you, I suggest if you have children ,go back and check their geneology!
Once upon a time, it was accepted as an Australian cultural normality to challenge “ïnsurmountable odds”..now, with what I read here, it seems it is more acceptable to offer oneself to “be mounted”!
I don’t know about the rest of you (barring the fellow travellers)but I will be cursing and shaking my fist at those lying bastards in the LNP. and their puppet master for trying to steal my nation….if you are too gutless to put up a fight, go and join them on the other side of the barricades and be cursed down through history for your treasonous infamy…you dirty dingoes!
indeed! so its wizard of oz all the way to elysian summits of september? you really think julia can lock it in now????
Meguire Bob
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 10:53 am | PERMALINK
bemused
@ 152
Incorrect , the opinion polling are rubbish
More good news for Gillard and why the Gillard government is likely to win by default on September 14
Graham Richardson another failed prediction – rudd will challenge on thursday night
[I wonder if those bagging Gillard’s knitting realise how offensive that is?
I used to work with a woman who came across as really ‘butch’ – policeman’s daughter, in the Army Reserves, short cropped hair, the whole cliche.]
The more so, zoom, since knitting, like petit point, tapestry, painting and other skills which exercise muscles not used in “day jobs”, cross the “sex-barrier”. Surgeons engage in those crafts, as do musicians (in my experience string players & flautists whose instruments demand repetitive, cramped positions). Needlework’s said to be a good way to off-set carpal tunnel probs.
Typists, in an occupation once dominated by women & male writers (inc journos) – now extended to Internet users – did also, as did precision rifle-shooters.
Edward VIII, a fine “shot”, did – petit point, if I remember correctly.
IOW: you have to have a very limited circle of friends, workmates & acquaintances, or just be what the Opposition & MSM like best – a Bogan who knows squat about those in jobs demanding the highest degree of manual precision (eg surgeons & musicians) -to think knitting degrades anyone, male or female; much less women who’ve knitted wollies for the poor, and for soldiers through just about every war from Napoleon’s onwards.
For years, instead of merely staring at TV, I did my biennial top-up of handknitted wollies (though not Fair Isle or cable patterns) while watching Ashes series held in England. Saved a packet on winter-wear!
131
AussieAchmed
[Van Badham @vanbadham 11h
And another, very sincere, response from a LIberal voter on violence against the PM: #qanda pic.twitter.com/h6Evw2vlsq ]
Pretty ugly stuff.
zoomster
that’s one for kev, 1000 for the other leader
geoffrey
If opinion polling companies were independent and not pressured or influence by the media
A) Would Abbott or the coalition would not have a chance in this election
B) Labor would be well ahead
A) Abbott or the coalition would not have a chance in this election
it should be
j.v
so – if Gillard isn’t reformist – then why are posters here angsting about Abbott rolling back her government’s reforms?
My original post was addressed to them, not you – why aren’t you arguing with their mistaken belief that there are reforms to be defended?
Bemused…” Well said Kevin Bonham, you nailed this charlatan beautifully.”
Now there is a person who, having nothing intelligent to say, says it so often!
Murdoch and the sacking of Whitlam saga
On hearing that the Melbourne Sun’s political journalist Laurie Oakes was also about to break the story, News Ltd brought its scheduled publication forward.
With an overnight deadline looming, Rupert Murdoch reverted to his earliest career incarnation, taking over not only the production but also the story.
The ”special correspondent” under whose byline the story had broken in The Australian was none other than Rupert Murdoch himself. The personal involvement of Murdoch in the timing and the writing of the story and the modus operandi of the secret use of an informant left many in the Labor Party convinced that Whitlam had been ”set up”.
In November 1977 Whitlam, Murdoch and a clutch of lawyers spent an hour agreeing on a settlement for Whitlam’s case of defamation and injurious falsehood against News Ltd.
Whitlam might have won the legal battle but the political victory was all Murdoch’s.
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/when-murdoch-fought-whitlam-20120825-24t7c.html#ixzz2XBao6oRI
ust Me
Posted Tuesday, June 25, 2013 at 11:05 am | PERMALINK
131
AussieAchmed
Van Badham @vanbadham 11h
And another, very sincere, response from a LIberal voter on violence against the PM: #qanda pic.twitter.com/h6Evw2vlsq
Pretty ugly stuff.
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Thats all news ltd/abbott coalition have done is made the gullible zombies
142
guytaur
[ @BarackObama: President Obama promised to take action on #climate change. Tomorrow, see how he is keeping his word. http://t.co/d56R2ZAzHs
This will be a problem for Abbott. The USA has been the last defence of other countries don’t do Climate Change action.]
China, India, and now the USA, all getting on with serious climate change policy.
Abbott’s core signed-in-blood-oath promise to ‘axe the tax’ is going to be completely undeliverable (at least not without serious economic penalty imposed on us by the rest of the world).
Who is he going to blame then?
muttley
[Psephology is closer to phrenology at the moment]
😀
meguire bob
a large chunk of australian public unsettled by julia after 2010 … the premise that that perception would fade over time if only rudd would also fade away ignores a) rudd cannot be allowed to leave, and would be aggreived b) this is not much of a commendation for julia, not the reason for being elected in the first place c) she was always sitting target for opposition, polling and msm ie later did not create problem merely exploited or reflected cheers. what weather!
zoomster
The carbon scheme and the NBN cannot be properly attributed as ‘Gillard reforms’.
Perhaps you mean the reforms on single mums or asylum seekers or the Tarkine.
btw, jaundiced, it’s hard to reconcile someone with your moniker being so starry eyed about Rudd.
The only bit of reform he bothered about was to get himself the power to appoint Ministers off his own bat…and he’s offered to roll over on that, if it gets him power again.
Anyone who was really taking a ‘jaundiced view’ would see that as fairly persuasive evidence that Rudd isn’t interested in party reform.
Instead, you invest him with all sorts of qualities he doesn’t have, including a few even his most fervid supporters don’t credit him with.
Looks like some kind of teenage pop star crush to me, rather than than the position of someone who takes an objective, let alone cynical, view of politicians.
MB
too simplistic ….
“Thats all news ltd/abbott coalition have done is made the gullible zombies”
gives them and msm more power than they deserve
j.v.
[The carbon scheme and the NBN cannot be properly attributed as ‘Gillard reforms’.]
As I’ve said, it’s Ruddistas here moaning that a loss in September will see Gillard’s reforms scrapped, so maybe you should be challenging them, not me.
re: knitting and the bagging thereof.
I tie knots for fun (though not, alas, for profit – still working on that).
Does that make me forever unsuitable for PM? Or is it okay, as long as I don’t tell anybody about it and stay off the front page of the WW?
More seriously. Knitting, crocheting, embroidering, knot tying, etc, are useful practical skills to have, and very good in helping keep fingers nimble and the mind active.
Sure beats watching Q&A. Or almost anything that the MSM barfs up these days on matters political.
OPT
Your mention of surgeons enjoying needlecrafts reminded me of this –
I once taught needlepoint and there were a lot of men lining up for classes. Many had been sent along by one particular doctor, a keen needlepointer himself, because he believed it was excellent therapy for patients recovering from surgery or back problems. The men always turned out to be the best and most creative students.
zoomster
Wrong tack again. I’m anything but ‘starry eyed’ about Rudd.
As I said here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/25/newspoll-quarterly-and-jws-research-labor-seats-polling/?comment_page=3/#comment-1675630
and here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/06/25/newspoll-quarterly-and-jws-research-labor-seats-polling/?comment_page=3/#comment-1675636
He’s just the means for ridding the party of the current ruling group, and returning to some values. Should he take over, the factional alignment in caucus would necessarily be dissolved. That would be a good start.
Oh, and in the meantime he’s also the best means of keeping Abbott from having control of the Senate, but I know your view of that, “There are worse things than losing elections.”
Wildfire Alarmist Warmists are skedaddling out of another town in Colorado. Deniers are urging people to stay put and to do nothing on the basis that, even if AGW turns out to be true, it would be cheaper to rebuild all the burnt-out towns than it would be stop the towns from burning to the ground in the first place. The Deniers point out that the hundreds of thousands of acres of burnt-out forest in Colorado and New Mexico was dead anyway, killed by bark beetles. The Denialists deny that the millions of acres of forest killed in North America has anything at all to do with changes in winter temperatures. The Deniers are reminding the Alarmist Warmists that what is happening in Colorado and New Mexico is normal, natural, and has nothing to do with the Greenhouse effect of increasing atmospheric concentrations. The real reason is that record fires are burning is that the Warmist models are just models and also that the Deniers found some suspect data and it was cosmic rays and CFCs. Creationist Deniers have gone a step further and pointed out that all this sort of stuff happened before, when people were hunting dinosaurs.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/24/colorado-wildfire-doubles-south-fork
[ Nothing is happening in Caucus.]
How much surprisiment! 🙂
And while the loons that pass for journalists went troppo over the PM’s knitting or lurked outside a caucus meeting in the vain hope of getting a leadership scoop, seven senators crossed the floor and another dozen or so abstained from voting. All this defiance and refusal to follow the party line has, of course, been pretty much ignored by the OM. Knitting is so much more important.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-25/coalition-splits-emerge/4777504
…and very, very few politicians ever have seen an original thought all the way through to a delivered policy.
That’s not how policy development works (and to some extent, it would be a Bad Thing if it was the way it did work).
I have a whole string of policies which I could call ‘mine’. I wrote the discussion papers, I set out the recommended actions, I took them through the party processes which saw them implemented as part of the policy platform.
But very few of them came about because I woke up in the middle of the night and said, “Aha! This is what must be done!”
They came about because I talked to experts in the field, who had a problem and had absolutely no idea how it could be solved. I sat down and worked out possible solutions to the problem, which I then ran by them. Some of these possible solutions had them laughing at me; others were spot on, others needed a bit of work to be practicable.
Once I’d worked out a set of policy solutions to the problem that the experts thought might work, I then took it through the party processes, which inevitably meant minor changes along the way.
So it was never ‘my’ policy initiative. The drive for change came from elsewhere. The identification of the problem came from elsewhere. The solutions were worked out by several people – sometimes several groups of people – and finally (if I was lucky) implemented by a politician who probably had no input to the process whatsover.
Saying ‘this politician can’t take credit for this policy because it wasn’t their idea’ shows an appalling ignorance of the way policies are formulated and how they are implemented.
Party policies are just that – policies which are ‘owned’ by the party. The leader gets the credit with delivering them, because that’s their job.
Hmmm… QE being uneased… terms of trade reverting to the historical mean… Aussie dollar heading south… China’s rate of growth slowing… Abbott and Hockey are going to have to put away their Howard/Costello era mining boom spendathon model of buying popularity.
I wonder what they will cut?
Zoomster OPT and others
Sorry but I think the WW “glamour” plus knitting is a silly idea – just as the previous WW.
It has NOTHING to do with feminism/gender but rather the idea of presenting conflicting images which make it difficult to reconcile with being PM.
Actually it is not dissimilar to the adverse reaction Abbott gets with all his surfing and biking.
It actually a little hard to believe that JG has ANY time for knitting at all – what PM would.
The other thing I find a poor idea in the photo is that she is knitting for the royal baby – this kid will have everything etc and it is a bit too UK – not sure it will go down so well in Australia as in the UK.
It would have been better if she were knitting for some homeless kids or sick kids, not rich royal babies.
@wendy_harmer: “I KNIT AND I VOTE and you have pissed me off Murdoch newspapers ” Love it. http://t.co/OFRG5s2t0C
j.v.
[He’s just the means for ridding the party of the current ruling group, and returning to some values.]
which proves my point; you are starry eyed about Rudd.
There is not a scintilla of evidence which suggests he would do either of these things.
The only values he might return to would be hard Right Christian values (he voted against ssm and was against stem cell research), which I wouldn’t have thought you’d approve of.
The death knell for Ruddstoration is sounded.
@tim_chr: MPs need to unite behind the PM and stop trying to trash Labor’s chances in the vain hope of a Rudd return. http://t.co/M32RPLuE8X
[The other thing I find a poor idea in the photo is that she is knitting for the royal baby – this kid will have everything etc and it is a bit too UK – not sure it will go down so well in Australia as in the UK.]
Then argue for a republic.
She’s knitting for our future head of state.
dtt
my post was nothing to do with whether or not Gillard being pictured knitting was good or bad politically; it was about the dangers of stating or implying (as posters were doing) that ‘feminists don’t knit’.