Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling

The Australian unleashes the quarterly Newspoll polling breakdowns by state, gender and age, while a JWS Research poll points to a loss of 32 Labor seats.

Two new poll findings to start the day with:

• The Australian today publishes the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns for April-June, but absent tables we will have to wait until the morning for a detailed idea of the results (UPDATE: They’re here). From Dennis Shanahan’s report we can glean that the Coalition leads 62-38 in either New South Wales or Western Australia (presumably the latter), and by at least 55-45 in the other; by at least 55-45 in Queensland; and by 54-46 in South Australia. Labor however holds a “slim lead”, probably meaning 51-49, in Victoria. The headline “gender war misfires for Julia Gillard” summarises The Australian’s take on the gender breakdowns, though five of the six individual polls the results were compiled from were in fact conducted before the event this presumably refers to.

• The Australian Financial Review today publishes a JWS Research automated phone poll of 3903 respondents from Labor-held seats on margins of up to 12%, pointing to an overall swing against Labor of 7.6%. By state, this pans out to swings of 7.6% across 16 seats in New South Wales, 4.2% across 11 seats in Victoria, 6.2% across eight seats in Queensland, 10.6% across three seats in Tasmania, 9.2% across three seats in Western Australia, and 14.4% across four seats in South Australia. Kevin Rudd was found to have a net approval rating of minus 4% compared with minus 12% for Julia Gillard and minus 14% for Tony Abbott (a “no particular view” option no doubt explaining the relatively mildness of these results compared with other pollsters’ net ratings). A question on whether Kevin Rudd should challenge Julia Gillard found 33% supportive and 54% opposed, which is very close to the 34% and 52% Galaxy elicited in response to a question on whether Julia Gillard should resign to make way for him. However, whereas the Galaxy poll found Coalition voters slightly less resistant to Galaxy’s change option than Labor voters, JWS Research found significantly fewer Coalition voters supporting a challenge (29% supportive against 59% opposed) than Labor voters (40% against 53%). Thirty-five per cent of all respondents said they would be more likely to vote Labor if Rudd replaced Gillard against 16% for less likely, with net results of 32% among Labor voters, 6% among Coalition voters and 20% among “others”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,377 comments on “Newspoll quarterly and JWS Research Labor seats polling”

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  1. Dear Dorothy Dix

    Q. I am knitting a blue tie for a wiccan wizard and am confused. What should I do?

    A. The tumbril you can hear in the background is carrying Australia’s future in it. It is being steered by Abbott, Hockey and Robb. I suggest that you ignore the policy debate completely and continue to enjoy your knitting before the reactionary chickens come home to roost.

  2. I know how to knit.

    I taught my daughter the basics of knitting because Mrs Crank can’t.

    I thought the PM looked lovely in the WW shots.

    I think the idea of a Knitted kangaroo is lovely but do think we could compliment it with something – maybe an SAS figurine for when they are older.

  3. The money keeps coming for JG. Now into $1.50. Rudd $2.50.

    If it gets any shorter I suspect a lot of it will be insider money.

  4. One day the “Gillard Kangaroo” will sit in the Tower of London next to St Edward’s Crown. The future kings and queens of England will hold it when taking their coronation oaths as a reminder of the reach of the former Empire.

  5. victoria

    If you believe that it should have been taken seriously as there were enough numbers in caucus to support it I have a bridge to sell

  6. [ The points that I believe get missed on here, particularly by those fixated on Gillard, is that at this election, the electorate are not all that interested in the alternative, they are simply interested in accomplishing one thing, and that is voting Gillard out. ]

    And you don’t see any irony in this?

    No, thought not.

  7. guytaur

    My point has nothing to do with numbers, but with the intent of Rudd and his backers to push their agenda. I only care about the party being united no mater who is at the helm.

  8. Looks like Julia ain’t going, Rudd ain’t standing, so only a miracle will see a change of leadership.
    LOTS of blame to go around – but what about all the nongs in Cabinet who aren’t prepared to live up to their responsibilities and tap her on the shoulder. Isn’t that a fundamental responsibility of a Cabinet minister? Or is it just about cruising around in a white car? Shorten seems to be lying very low at the moment. They clearly all deserve a long period in opposition.
    But fear not, now we know Julia’s a knitter, everything will be OK. She connects with the blue-rinse set.

  9. victoria

    See MSM coverage of LNP disunity manifested in Parliament votes.

    There was always chatter it is the job of MSM to know the reality of how significant that chatter is.

    MSM made out for fortnight starting with Cassidy declaration that something significant was happening.

    It was not. All MSM fiction.

  10. Victoia

    There is a very appropriate Tom Lehrer song for the current caucus

    “We will all go together when we go” Should sing it from here to election night.

  11. zoomster

    There’s no use being simplistic and suggesting the leader calls all the shots. That won’t wash. Rudd, Gillard, or anyone else.

    It won’t just be up to Rudd. I’m talking about the key being not who the leader is, but the ousting of the whole cabal who put Gillard into front-of-house.

    Once that is achieved, the caucus will have the opportunity to realign around internal leaders as the party turns off the empty pragmatism path.

    Surely you don’t think, after the abject failure of the lurch to the Libs and the deathly polling that has resulted that caucus members, freed from their erstwhile bondage, will want more of the same?

  12. Anyhoo…

    my son and I have been trying to work out what super powers we’d like to have (although I maintain the take out message of ‘The Avengers’ is that women don’t need super powers in order to be awesome…)

    I’ve gone for Biting Sarcasm matched with a Withering Glance, whereas he’s going for the ability to make your opponent procrastinate.

    We’re both agreed that our preferred martial art is tickling.

  13. Victoria you seem to have come to face reality in the past month or so. I think it makes sense to be prepared mentally for what is to come.

  14. I can just imagine the phone calss goign around betwwen Cabinet Members:

    “Are you going to talk to her?

    No f%^&ing way! Are you?

    No way am I putting my final avergae salary calculation on my defined benefit fund pension payout at risk”

  15. JAUNDICED – The big problem is that only the Victorian vote is going to hold up at the next federal election, which means the Short-Cons and their ilk will have the party in their grip.

  16. [ The death knell for Ruddstoration is sounded.

    @tim_chr: MPs need to unite behind the PM and stop trying to trash Labor’s chances in the vain hope of a Rudd return. http://t.co/M32RPLuE8X ]

    Notice how they’re still insisting it’s a “stalemate”?

    As if there were two finely-balanced contenders staring each other down, daring each other to blink first?

    What utter rubbish! The reality is there is one contender … and someone else who has again failed to even show up.

  17. victoria

    The issues in the Labor Party were settled in March. It is only MSM saying otherwise. As confirmed by every caucus meeting statements by PMJG and K Rudd.

    There are more divisions in the LNP showing up in voting on Local Government Referendum. More substance there than to any report on Labor division.

  18. The numbers in that JWS research above make pretty sobering reading. I don’t think it will end up that bad but it is just short of impossible to come back from here.

  19. davidwh

    The reality for me has always been that Labor have to be united to have any chance of success. I
    have said this countless times over the past few years.
    I also knew that after the March fizzer, there would be another push re leadershit before parliament rises. Nothing that is occurring, is surprising me in the least.
    The party has to reach a resolute position sooner rather than later, as to the way forward

  20. The Liberals get a free pass because people give them a free pass.

    Whatever trouble there is in Labor doesn’t mean others aren’t responsible for scrutinising the Coalition.

  21. [ LOTS of blame to go around – but what about all the nongs in Cabinet who aren’t prepared to live up to their responsibilities and tap her on the shoulder. Isn’t that a fundamental responsibility of a Cabinet minister? ]

    Knifing a leader is a fundamental responsibility of a Cabinet minister?

    Huh?

  22. guytaur @224

    Once again the Liberla Party demonstrating it’s distinct difference to the ALP – freedom of expression, freedom of association.

    Care to elaborate on what would have happened to ALP Senators who crossed the floor (or even abstained)?

  23. davidwh

    JWS should be viewed with scepticism. Then add in how the MSM has been running around saying how chaotic and disunited Labor is and there is no surprise.

    Last night 730 called the government paralysed even while legislation is passing Parliament.

  24. guytaur

    Only today Bruce Hawker confirmed that Rudd is seeking the leadership on the condition that he has the full support of the caucus. Of course, he has never had it over the past three years. Now the eleventh hour is upon us, and it is all or bust.

  25. Was Combet working for the MSM when he threw down the challenge to Rudd? The problem is there is ongoing leadership rhetoric coming out of federal Labor MP’s stocking the fires. Should the media ignore all that and pretent it isn’t happening?

  26. aren’t there some scarey political connotation for knitting at present moment?

    it is possible rudd is either great strategist or not. he may not rise to moment, or he might see moment as illusion. who knows

  27. The gossip now is that the Ruddites will move on Thursday. If they intend that, they will have to get a petition up tomorrow. This may be true, or it may be more Ruddite psywar, or it may be the figment of overheated imaginations.

  28. davidwh

    The msm have chosen to focus on leadershit for three years. They do not need much prompting to carrry on about it to the exclusion of everything else. It suits their purpose perfectly. Of course, Rudd and his backers have always counted on it being thus

  29. [aren’t there some scarey political connotation for knitting at present moment?]

    I haven’t heard any. Perhaps we could make some up right now?

  30. davidwh

    Combet does not live in a vacuum. No politician does. Of course politicians look for circuit breakers that will shut MSM up

  31. [66
    confessions

    victoria:

    We will find out hopefully soon. This wretched leadershit focus is just so damaging to the govt. It has to end.]

    But it won’t end. KR will drag this out to its inevitable conclusion. He has a simple strategy and just needs to stick with it.

    Victoria, I can’t see any reason why the vote should tighten up in favour of the ALP. If anything, the closer we get to the election, the worse things are becoming. When the disengaged actually focus their attention on the shambolic denialism and division that have taken hold of the Government, the numbers for the LNP will most likely only increase. The voters of Queensland, NSW and WA have given the LNP majorities in State elections around 60/40 in the recent past. There is no reason at all to think they won’t award the same sort of victory to Abbott. Labor could easily end up with as few as 30 seats. Afterall, which voter in their right mind might want to vote for a continuation of the torture of the last three years?

  32. Guytaur how does a senior minister going public with a challenge to Rudd shut the media up? I agree with Victoria that they don’t need much to get them excited about the PM’s leadership issues but Combet’s public challenge was always going to move them from excitement to frenzy.

  33. PLAYER – Nobody’s knifing anyone. They are fully entitled to knock on her door and tell her she should go. If she doesn’t there would then have to be a spill. You saying they should just sit like dummies and do nothing?

  34. davidwh

    Combet said that after a week of MSM unhinging. At a stage of nothing to lose MSM was going on with it hell or high water

  35. guytaur @233

    The Coalition is a broad church.

    I will be suprised if the Local Gov Referendum gets up – ALP wasting $10 mill.

  36. I think its a positive thing for a PM to have hobby and i image there will be several other photos in the WW but there is something off about the picture on the front of the DT.

    The picture doesn’t appear natural, the PM is not looking relaxed and the background is missing.

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