BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week’s pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,682 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

Comments Page 52 of 54
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  1. Briefly

    I agree Labor has done well economically, especially under Rudd up to 2010. Since then it has been more mixed. Swan should never have made the surplus pledge. Without it Labor would look far better.

    However it is more scandal and its taint that will cause Labor to be swept out in September, than any one piece of mismanagement. In particular, the rotting carcass of NSW Labor has floated to the surface, and the standing of the party itself in the electorate is lower than clearly those in the party are able to comprehend. For example:
    [On Thursday, ICAC announced it was recalling three MPs to explore Obeid’s claim that Macdonald had not been in his office in 20 years of political life. And its reports, likely to make sensational findings about corrupt conduct by the former government, will dribble out from July.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labors-nightmare-without-end-20130517-2jru8.html#ixzz2Tc1BK6zJ

    This is what will sink Labor, more than anything else. After September 14 in western Sydney, Labor will be starting from a clean slate. After that, other state results are academic.

  2. [Mrs D decided to become a currency trader and converted our money for our overseas trip into euros and pounds last week when I told her the dollar was about to go down. ]

    Watch out for the “conversion fees”.

    After my last overseas holiday to the states I realised the cheapest way to get your money converted wasn’t to use money at all and just pay for everything using the mastercard.

    Bendigo Bank charged me $5 per ATM withdrawl ontop of the $3 the ATM machine charges, so $8 bucks a withdraw. In bank transfer before leaving was worse, converting at a bad exchange rate and then having a fee ontop as well thank you very much.

    Meanwhile paying direct with Mastercard… good conversion rate and not a cent in transaction fees.

  3. Dio

    The short answer to your question is ‘Who really knows?’ It is a market outcome and markets are neither transparent nor perfect.

    Kohler had a bit to say about it on Business Sunday last week.

    He mentioned hedge funds. These guys have, in the past, busted currencies. If they think a currency is overvalued, then they can go short on it, sell some and try to force the value down, thus making money.

    I assume that the other reason is that the commondities cycle and our terms of trade have both peaked and that therefore one of the main thing shielding the dollar: ore exports, are worth less. If a sufficiently large group of money traders think that that is the case, down she comes.

    Finally, Kohler had a little graph with two lines on it. Dollar line and commodities line started at the same base about 12 months ago. They subsequently diverged widely. Those lines have joined up again.

    I assume that the explanation to your question lies partly in just why Kohler’s two lines diverged in between.

  4. Sean,

    So much hate from someone who is so often wrong.

    In case you missed it, Tony the bikie promised to delay the increase in super.

    The Mining Tax is working as it is supposed to. When there are super profits the miners will pay super profits tax.

    The Libs are living on a prayer.

    BTW the Australian economy is travelling very well under the wise and skilful management of the Labor Government. It’s strategies and policies are lauded throughout the civilised world. The Libs, on the other hand are perceived as ideological chancers.

    You’ll just have to learn to deal with that in your bitter an twisted irrelevancy.

  5. You can run your own little holiday forex bet by going to your bank and setting up a travelcard.

    The exchange rate is fixed on the date you transfer your money into the travelcard account. If the dollar is on a downwards trend, you win. If its value goes up while you are o/s, you lose.

    Not sure about the variations in withdrawal costs, etc.

  6. Our worst forex holiday was in europe before the GFC had bashed the euro around enough.

    The best was the recent trip to SEA where the aussi dollar was king.

  7. [2545
    Sean Tisme

    Under the Libs Tax breaks for the poor struggling Mining Compamies paid for by inceases to the GST and shortchanging workers on their Super.

    So sick of Labor hack stupidity in here.

    First off, Super increases are paid for by the EMPLOYER. Get that? THE EMPLOYER. Has f’ing NOTHING to do with Labor.]

    SGC was introduced as an alternative to wage increases. So while they are “paid” by employers, in the same way as wages are paid by employers, they represent a part of employee compensation. Since they also represent wages foregone by employees – in the broadest sense – and are taxed at a lower rate than wages, any increase in super will , at the margin, reduce the share of the economy going to wages and will reduce Commonwealth tax collections.

    Is that clear to you? Just say so if you are in any doubt. I will explain it again if necessary as I am now well aware that your impudence is matched only by the slothful pace of your wits.

  8. I assume that the thought of letting the Amateur Hour of Abbott, Robb and Hockey play with the economy is already depressing the value of the dollar and that after September it will be a wild ride indeed.

  9. I should point out that there are now credit cards that don’t charge transactional fees (up to 3%) for foreign currency transactions.

  10. Sean Tisme
    Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 1:37 pm | Permalink
    Under the Libs Tax breaks for the poor struggling Mining Compamies paid for by inceases to the GST and shortchanging workers on their Super.

    So sick of Labor hack stupidity in here.

    First off, Super increases are paid for by the EMPLOYER. Get that? THE EMPLOYER. Has f’ing NOTHING to do with Labor.

    Secondly the mining tax makes jack stuff all, $200 Million and probably cost that in government administration.

    Thirdly the coalition is keeping all the compensation but axing the tax, they are doing this through savings such as getting rid of 12,000 public servants.
    ———————————————————–

    Tax cuts and compensation provided by LABOR for the carbon PRICE cost $4.5 billion a year…12,000 public servants – I’m under paid and in the wrong job

  11. In some ways the GST is an “unfair” tax. Gina Rineheart and her billionaire mates pay the same 10% as a pensioner.

    And I’d bet Gina etc pay accountants to work out ways to minimise

  12. -savings-figures/4697744

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-18/dispute-over-coalition-budget-savings-figures/4697744

    Federal Government says it expects more holes will be uncovered in the Opposition’s costings as a dispute continues over $400 million worth of savings announced in Tony Abbott’s budget reply.

    Mr Abbott announced $5 billion in savings, mostly to be spent on keeping carbon tax compensation.

    The Opposition Leader said he would save up to $400 million by scrapping Labor’s green loans scheme, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC).

    But Finance Minister Penny Wong says it is not a saving because the money is no longer in the budget

  13. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-17/abbott-accused-of-hiding-cuts-until-after-election/4695820Federal Government has gone on the offensive over Tony Abbott’s budget reply speech, accusing the Opposition Leader of saving his harshest cuts until after the election.
    =======================================
    Superannuation Minister Bill Shorten says the Opposition’s plan to save $1.1 billion per year by delaying a planned increase in superannuation contributions will hurt low income workers the most.

    “I worked out last night, that if you’re a 30-year-old, earning average full-time wages, man or woman, the delay in the superannuation, if in fact they ever increase it at all, is going to cost you $20,000 by the time you retire,” he told ABC News 24.

    “Tony Abbott is going to make sure that the age pension will have to go up, and not enough people will have enough money to retire

    ====================== read all

  14. rummel

    So sorry to hear that news.

    You can be very proud that you and all your friends rallied around him to give your support to him and his family in a very difficult time for them all. I am sure he appreciated all of you.

    May he rest in peace.

  15. I think ihave won over my liberal elderly couple

    such nice people

    said to day its all in god hands

    but she loves Jason Claire,

    so do I to

    so there u go,

    may be there is hope for rummel
    this couple have voted lib all their life

    I have been sending stuff on the net they don’t see
    in old media

    so worth it folks

  16. I think ihave won over my liberal elderly couple

    such nice people

    said to day its all in god hands

    but she loves Jason Claire,

    so do I to

    so there u go,

    may be there is hope for rummel
    this couple have voted lib all their life

    I have been sending stuff on the net they don’t see
    in old media

    so worth it folks

  17. I think ihave won over my liberal elderly couple

    such nice people

    said to day its all in god hands

    but she loves Jason Claire,

    so do I to

    so there u go,

    may be there is hope for rummel
    this couple have voted lib all their life

    I have been sending stuff on the net they don’t see
    in old media

    so worth it folks

  18. Guys,

    as someone who believes that this ALP government has been a substantially good one deserving of re-election on the objective facts (especially against this particular quality of opposition), there is at the same time an inevitability about this election result that mirrors 1996 and 2007. Whether its fair or justified or how it has come about isnt actually the point with just over 100 days to go now.

    Like it or not, Gilliard is unacceptable out there in voter land – and we’re staring down the barrel of a massive defeat and Coalition control of the senate. Even the comprehensive victories of 96 and 07 left the outgoing government with over 60 seats and a balanced senate… this HAS to be the line in the sand now. Worse than this means that everything good they have done is at real risk of being repealed and this should simply be an unacceptable scenario.

    With that in mind, its clear to me that the ALP have not only to try and execute as many good/lasting things as they can do (eg gay marriage) but at the same time try and salvage some furniture in the process.

    With Julia at the helm (and i personally like her), the risk is simply too high of that whopping defeat scenario. I am of the view that her leading the government into the election is the worst of all risks to take. Turning back to Rudd seems untenable and way over-cynical given how popular he really is in the party. Dont want to burn Shorten/Combet as they are the people that will have to rebuild in opposition.

    Ideally would turn to someone like Bob Carr or Crean, not unlike the UK tories did with Michael Howard in 2005. This person’s job is to deflect some of the visceral hatred and bring the result in to a 53-47 loss from which a short-term comeback can be mounted.

    I know, I know, its so unfair and the BISONs and Abbott is a clown and all that jazz… but it simply doesnt matter, 18 months of 55-45 is the objective fact that trumps the rest. We’re going to lose, but lets not make it the Kenneally/Bligh level of loss – that throws away everything and keeps the Coalition in governemnt for 2 terms at a minimum.

    If you accepted that the minimum ‘non-catastrophe’ standard was 60+ seats and (more importantly) no Coalition control of the Senate… what would your strategy be for maximising the probability of that result, with anything better an unexpected (but deserving) bonus?

  19. Laurie Oakes says John Howard is worried that a late switch to Rudd will snatch victory from the Coalition. But Oakes is right … “Labor MPs have already passed through panic and are into the stunned mullet stage. They seem to have accepted their fate.”

  20. Sean

    [After my last overseas holiday to the states I realised the cheapest way to get your money converted wasn’t to use money at all and just pay for everything using the mastercard.
    ]

    That was my plan as well. Mrs D wanted some cash as well.

    Are the exchange rates OK with credit cards?

  21. Toorak toff

    it shows coalition and newsltd are worried that gillard is going to snatch victory and Abbott will join hewson

  22. [2514
    Diogenes

    GG

    The dollar has been defying gravity for months. It’s the reason why their is a shortfall on tax receipts. Haven’t you been listening?

    That doesn’t explain why it’s gone down now.

    And tax receipts went up 6% in the last year.]

    Tax receipts grew at about the same rate as the economy in nominal terms. Historically, receipts have grown slightly faster than the economy due to the effects of the progressive slope in the tax scales. As well, historically, revenue has been pitched to come in at or just better than spending.

    Following the GFC, revenue slumped and has failed to return to its historical relationship with GDP (a function of tax cuts dished out by Howard and Rudd) and they have grown less quickly than usual. In the latest period this has been attributed to the terms-of-trade effect, which has depressed nominal disposable incomes and acted to suppress prices, profit growth and wage growth.

    The system settings now mean that even if revenue grows at the same speed as the economy, and spending grows at the same speed too, the budget will remain in deficit. Spending as a share of the economy has not changed much since the 1980’s, though its composition has changed. Meanwhile, revenue as a share of the economy has declined.

    The LNP are claiming they can get the economy to grow faster than Labor has been able to, and that this will lift revenues without the need to increase tax rates. They are dreaming, but this is the sum total of their so-called strategy.

    The dollar is falling now for lots of reasons, but mostly because markets are sensing that growth in China will decelerate while interest rates in the US are likely to rise in coming months. An increase in the USD will also depress commodity prices, as these measures usually move inversely to each other.

    As well, growth is expected to slip here, so interest rates are also likely to fall. All in all, there is a lesser case to hold the AUD, so investors are selling it, pushing down the exchange rate. This will probably continue for several years.

  23. My Say,
    you are some kind of cantankerous old fartess who can only see things one way and, if you dont like another view, simply insults the author of it or questions their motives. That’s all you’ve got? You’re like the senile relative that noone listens to and has to put up with.
    DONT READ MY SAY – frankly what she writes is barely comprehensible anyway…

  24. Diog

    All you need to do to find out about credit card exchange rates is purchase something from a place like Amazon

  25. my say
    Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 2:17 pm | PERMALINK
    I think ihave won over my liberal elderly couple

    such nice people

    said to day its all in god hands

    but she loves Jason Claire,

    so do I to

    so there u go,

    ————–

    lol my say

  26. [With that in mind, its clear to me that the ALP have not only to try and execute as many good/lasting things as they can do (eg gay marriage) but at the same time try and salvage some furniture in the process.
    ]

    I don’t think they necessarily have the numbers. Wilkie Thomson and Bandt are in favour but I don’t know about Slipper Oakie and Windsor. Katter is a no.

  27. Bob Meguire – another fantasy merchant… you must have been gutted when Whitlam lost in ’75 as i’m sure you just knew they had to win, right? Gosh if people like you guys are the ALP intellectual base, you’ll be surprised how many potential coalition supporters there might be out there

  28. Dio,
    I like the idea of going down swinging and standing for something. For Oakie and Windsor, this is probably their last hurrah at relevance and potential to make a difference too?

  29. my say

    It was good reading expat’s contribution. The part about Crean/Carr ticket was the best laugh I have had all day.

  30. I see that the LNP are going to give in to the polluters of the world and offer, in exchange, a 35 year strategy to “protect the G B Reef”.

    Well, that should work. Could they move any slower if they tried? Where are my rose-coloured glasses?

    [TONY Abbott would prepare for a double-dissolution election within five months of taking office if parliament blocked the repeal of the carbon tax, under a 12-month action blueprint to transform the nation’s environmental laws.

    A working draft of the plan, obtained by The Weekend Australian and confirmed by opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt, sets key dates to merge federal departments, introduce a direct action plan to offset or reduce carbon dioxide emissions and confirms details of a 35-year Great Barrier Reef protection strategy.]

    http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/liberals-plan-to-dismantle-carbon-laws/story-fn59niix-1226645695162

  31. Diogenes@2589

    With that in mind, its clear to me that the ALP have not only to try and execute as many good/lasting things as they can do (eg gay marriage) but at the same time try and salvage some furniture in the process.


    I don’t think they necessarily have the numbers. Wilkie Thomson and Bandt are in favour but I don’t know about Slipper Oakie and Windsor. Katter is a no.

    SSM last time Wilkie, Thomson, Bandt and Oakeshott voted for, Windsor and Katter against, Slipper did not vote as he was still technically Speaker but on leave. Had Labor had a binding vote in favour it would have been 74-74.

    So if Labor all voted for this time then Slipper would be the key; unfortunately, Slipper has a history of homophobic voting and I don’t know if his recent embarrassments will have changed that. And most likely given that Labor has a current policy from the last national conference to permit a “conscience vote”, the best that could happen would be that Gillard changes her mind and as a result the number of Labor MPs choosing to vote against drops to, say, ten.

  32. Expat Follower

    Yes i can see why the pro coalition media and supporters are unhinging

    The ones to blame are the liberal party for not replacing abbott, after he had everything go his way in 2010 , 2011 ,2012 and failed to get into government

    Newsltd/Abbott coalition threw all the dirtiest personal attacks and propaganda they could against Gillard

    and she is still standing and back in

    Agter september 14th 2013

    Gillard will continue as pm

  33. The payments will cost the Federal Government $2 billion over five years and will help 1.3 million low-income families with schooling costs.

    $2.1 billion over 5 years and creating unemployment by getting rid of 12,000 public servants will fund the total $17.5 billion over 3 years in retaining the tax cuts associated with the carbon price?

    Abbott needs a new abacus….

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