BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week’s pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,682 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria

    Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 12:48 pm | Permalink

    Btw there are two distinctive images of Abbott. One is kneeling next to Murdoch who is sitting down, and the other is Reinhart either talking into Abbott’s ear, or the other way around.

    Social medial should be inundated with those images on a daily basis.

    2495

    =======================================

    YES GEORGE WHERE ARE U
    0R
    BUSFIRE DOES THESE CLIPS WELL ALLSO

  2. “”i wouldnt be surprise if the seats polled were the pro coalition ones””

    That’s why the polls are vulnerable to manipulation!.

  3. 2451 MAQUIRE

    THATS why I keep asking mr bowe
    the very

    boring question,, well not boring for me

    in which electorates where these polls done please

    I am in high percenatage labor electorate

    and have wait for it
    NEVER EVER BEEN POLLED

    how strange

  5. http://www.theage.com.au/comment/there-is-a-better-way-to-help-mothers-return-to-paid-work-20130517-2js0z.html#ixzz2Tb40oi4V

    under a Coalition government until it develops a policy.

    Which raises the question: is Abbott’s paid parental leave scheme in fact a natalist policy masquerading as economic reform? Perhaps Abbott, a Rhodes Scholar let’s remember, did not misspeak when he said: ”We do not want educated women, at the higher degree level, to deny them a career. If we want women of that calibre to have families – and we should – well we’ve got to give them a fair dinkum chance to do so and that’s what this scheme of paid parental leave is all about.”

    If Abbott’s paid parental leave scheme is ”all about” raising the fertility rate of highly educated Australian women, this perhaps explains why he is willing to pay them up to $75,000 to have a baby but not address what happens when the six months is up. Perhaps, despite all the talk of ”economic reform”, it’s the babies he wants.

    Leopard and spots come to mind.

    Anne Summers is a journalist, author and editor. Twitter: @SummersAnne

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/there-is-a-better-way-to-help-mothers-return-to-paid-work-20130517-2js0z.html#ixzz2TbryFoa1

    ===================================

    please read all

  7. PAY rises handed to the West Australian government’s ministerial staffers are excessive, given savings are being sought in the rest of the public sector, the opposition says.

    But Mr Barnett’s office has defended the increases

    While WA opposition leader Mark McGowan some staff had received salary increases of more than 50 per cent, which he said was over the top.

    Come September a vote for Abbott is a vote for more of this type of cronism and wealth creation for mates and selected people

  8. I’ve been polled by Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan, EMRS in my lifetime, some of them more than once. Yet to collect a Galaxy or any robopoll.

    More details of that polling reported by AFR in their New England article (and also of the W Sydney stuff) would be useful. A hopelessly vague report that doesn’t name the pollster.

    Just respamming link to the little rant I posted last night, the title of which is fairly self-explanatory:

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/05/julia-gillard-same-sex-marriage-enemy-1.html

    Julia Gillard: Same-Sex Marriage Enemy #1

    (in which the ghosts of a few late night discussions on here resurface though I have not named the culprits!)

  9. Puff

    Happy? It would hardly make me happy that a once great bulwark against unfairness has been reduced to a bumbling visionless copy of the Libs with no chance of winning power for a long time – and with no prospect of reform to have their collective spine re-implanted.

    They have ensured the Libs have open slather by making unfairness the bipartisan normality. So, no, not happy – especially with the ALP team running the party as a career platform from the old affiliated unions. It is completely their fault.

  10. the above is so important for aust,

    woman to read
    .

    is this what its all about,

    =========================================

  12. Whether Labor win or lose, we have reason to be pleased with the last 6 years in spite of all the shocks, frustrations and wrangling. Among the very many important things Labor has done, the most significant was to respond to the GFC. In retrospect, whatever faults its critics might find, Labor policies worked. They really did avert a grave implosion in the economy.

    We should recall as well that as the GFC struck, no-one could really foresee the impact of China’s stimulus measures. Had it not been for this intervention by China, the fallout in this economy would have been much more serious than it turned out to be.

    This brings me to another point, as well. And that is the problems inherent in trying to predict motion in the global economy. Looking back, Treasury really failed to foretell the pick up in commodity demand in 2003 following China’s reaction to the dot-com collapse. They apparently also failed to anticipate the GFC and then to have over-estimated the velocity and durability of China’s stimulus-driven boom.

    Considering all these uncertainties, Labor have done very well. John Howard caught the benefits of surprises on the upside. Labor has had to cope with the wild volatility of the GFC and then the dysfunctional conditions that have characterised its aftermath.

    I have made the point at PB in the past that the imbalances in the economy that were first exposed by the GFC are now exerting pressure again. Gyrations in commodity prices, monetary conditions and global trade and financial flows are all echoes of the shocks induced by the collapse of 2008.

    These conditions inspired the sudden boom and are now forcing its compression. They propelled depreciation in 2008 and then a sustained period of exceptional and unwarranted dollar strength. They are now exerting another depreciation, one that is likely to resemble that of the 1990’s – deeper and more prolonged – than that of 2008.

    The same stresses in the global economy are affecting household incomes and the budget, and exposing the systemic problems in the economy: the financial vulnerability of the household sector, the structural weakness in fiscal revenues, our dependence on foreign financial flows to sustain full employment, and the need to re-frame our own savings/investment flows.

    Labor has done remarkably well to cope with this volatility and the stresses that have emanated from them. They deserve a much higher score than they have been given by domestic commentators or the electorate. In some ways, considering the fate of most Governments around the democratic world since 2008, they have been lucky to survive in office so long and to have had the chance to pursue their social and economic reforms. Maybe they will get the chance to continue, and maybe not. Whichever way the cards fall in the election, Labor can be proud they have guided the economy through a very difficult phase and protected the incomes and financial security of working Australians, in spite of the endlessly puerile opposition of the LNP.

    another thing is also quite apparent. The volatility and the dysfunction of the post-GFC global economy have not gone away, and the distortions in our own economy have not been addressed. These distortions will have to be fixed before the next wave of turbulence hits this economy, and perhaps capsizes the whole thing.

    This should be done as a matter of great urgency – that is, while we still have the benefits of relative calm in the global economy and the financial strength of the Commonwealth is at our disposal.

    I keep saying – but I will say it again – this is what the election should be about. We know the LNP will not do anything until a possible second term, if at all. They are constitutionally incapable of coherent action. Labor should make further structural reform of the economy its call to arms. This would be very much in the tradition of the Hawke/Keating Governments and a match with Labor’s responsive record since 2007.

    At the very least, whether we win or lose, this will position Labor as the party of economic reform as well as social justice. This is Labor’s proudest tradition and greatest claim on the support of the public.

    And after all, given the circumstances, what do they have to lose!

  13. Unhappily, I just allowed myself to watch Pyne on ABC24.

    A rant against JG and the Labor Party (selfish, power-hungry, talk about Abbott instead of what’s good for the country) then assurances that GST is a state matter, then stuff about Abbott and Pyne the family men understanding the needs of the people.

    I swear that at the end one of the journos said “well done” and he said thanks 🙁

  14. GG

    [The dollar has been defying gravity for months. It’s the reason why their is a shortfall on tax receipts. Haven’t you been listening?
    ]

    That doesn’t explain why it’s gone down now.

    And tax receipts went up 6% in the last year.

  17. briefly

    Labor have done very well indeed. Would be great if the Australian electorate could be made to understand this.

  18. [He said Labor favoured a mining tax rather than slugging ‘‘mums and dads’’ with a GST increase.]

    Is Shorten proposing amending the mining tax so it would generate as much revenue as a GST increase?

  20. lizzie have they worked
    out

    that tone budget is not making people happy.
    so they wheel out chris,
    .o yes and he is the family man, so what
    =================================================

    was it an abc reporter

    if so again

    mark scott should

    be tweeted

    yes they do nothing

    but good to let scott know we notice.

  22. victoria

    Couldn’t swear to it in a court, of course, but I thought I heard it, and Pyne turned back a little and smiled and said thank you. He’d already done the dismissal with a smile bit.

  24. Abbott and Hunt are promising a Double Dissolution, and presumably a joint sitting post their victory to ram through Carbon Price repeal bills.

    Here is an interesting table on the 6 previous DDs in the history of our Federation. There has only ever been 1 joint sitting, in 1974 under EGW.

    The only other 2 DDs when the previously elected incumbent got in, Menzies in 1951 and Hawke in 1987 were both squibbed in terms of a joint sitting.

    So Abbott is promising to emulate only Gough as a PM in our history with the ticker and resolve to have a DD and a joint sitting.

    [Double Dissolutions of the Australian Parliament
    Year Party in Govt. Prime Minister Election Result Joint Sitting
    1914 Liberal Joseph Cook Government Defeated
    No
    1951 Liberal Robert Menzies Government Returned
    No
    1974 ALP Gough Whitlam Government Returned
    Yes
    1975 L/NCP Malcolm Fraser Elected Whitlam Government Defeated,
    Caretaker Fraser Government Elected
    No
    1983 L/NCP Malcolm Fraser Government Defeated
    No
    1987 ALP Bob Hawke Government Returned
    No]

  26. The coalitions PPL is ostensibly about women’s participation in the workforce and how that is jeopardised when they have children. Their solution is to pay women to step out of the workforce for six months. The problem with this is that it just reinforces to notion that MOTHERS should be at home with the baby. It would seem to me that if you want to increase the participation of MOTHERS in the workforce, that you put more responsibility to FATHERS, that you create an idea that PARENTS are responsible for there children. As long as it is assumed that dad goes to work and mum looks after the kids, even if she is a highly paid member of the workforce, there will be a problem for women in the workforce. The coalition policy just perpetuates the problem.

  27. I’ve just remembered that the early part of Pyne’s rant was on how desperate Labor was. How Shorten could hardly speak out of desperation, likewise Penny Wong.

    Libs should all be novelists, they are so good at making stuff up.

  30. [Unhappily, I just allowed myself to watch Pyne on ABC24.]

    And that is why we have pain. To warn us when we do something stupid like that not to do it again, that its bad for us.

    Next time you get the urge just thwack yourself in the head with a big dead fish. 🙂

  31. Diogs,

    It’s gone down now because some ‘smarties” in the hedge markets can see that it’s over valued on fundamentals.

    It’ll actually be a good thing for our manufacturers if the dollar goes down. You, of course will probably have to pay a bit more for your gas guzzler and your overseas holiday this year. So, there’s still plenty of “guvment bad” for you to whinge about.r.

    As I said, this is is why the government has not received as much as they budgetted for on the ptax side and why there is a deficit this year.

  33. lizzie

    The coalition are attempting to dictate the narrative of desperation. The only desperation I have seen this week is from Pyne himself. Is unhinged behaviour has reached new heights

  43. GG

    Mrs D decided to become a currency trader and converted our money for our overseas trip into euros and pounds last week when I told her the dollar was about to go down.

    So we are laughing. 🙂

  44. Just off the old Labor Council cottages at Currawong (in Pittwater) in the runabout across Broken Bay from the Gosford side. Will live tweet with some pics under #Currawong for anyone who wants to share the ride.

    Currawong is the place that ex-NSW Minister Tony Kelly is before the ICAC over. Fortunately it has been saved at the 11th hour by the Friends of Currawong from development by a couple of NSW Labor mates who miraculously got it cheap.

  45. [Under the Libs Tax breaks for the poor struggling Mining Compamies paid for by inceases to the GST and shortchanging workers on their Super.]

    So sick of Labor hack stupidity in here.

    First off, Super increases are paid for by the EMPLOYER. Get that? THE EMPLOYER. Has f’ing NOTHING to do with Labor.

    Secondly the mining tax makes jack stuff all, $200 Million and probably cost that in government administration.

    Thirdly the coalition is keeping all the compensation but axing the tax, they are doing this through savings such as getting rid of 12,000 public servants.

    Now please stop the Labor spin it’s making me nauseous

  46. [Diogenes
    Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 1:36 pm | PERMALINK
    GG

    Mrs D decided to become a currency trader and converted our money for our overseas trip into euros and pounds last week when I told her the dollar was about to go down.

    So we are laughing.]

    So did I 🙂 into euros and pounds also, wonder if MOD LIB did? :devil:

  49. Rummel

    I take it that his is the person for whom you did much by way of raising funds, and for whom quite a few Bludgers donated?

    If so, he would have had some time in life to see and appreciate the very best of our society.

    My condolences and also thanks for your efforts.

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