BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week’s pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,682 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

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  1. [ you are 100% right. Rudd was a total ninkumpoop who stuffed the golden chalice so badly. At ETS time, ALP were looking at a 90+ seat win in a DD]

    Well that is total nonsense though I don’t suppose you mind inventing you’own version of history to suit your pet hates.

    Maybe you should go back and review the facts and contexts of the time instead of a dishonest interpretation,

  2. Fact …..
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to crimson blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<<
    ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

  3. This is remarkable in its stupidity.

    [INDUSTRY super funds have warned that Tony Abbott’s planned two-year delay in increasing the superannuation guarantee will cost workers a combined $55 billion in lost retirement earnings over seven years. ]

    So a $55 billion loss in retirement earnings for a $1 billion saving over seven years.

    Great Economic wallies.

  4. [I shall be around after the 15th to remind you all of your complicit support for Abbott]

    I am sure you are here every second waiting to pounce when the R word is posted. 😆

  5. Thomas, what was polling when Turbull got rolled – pretty sure it was 58-42 or thereabouts.

    I like how you ask someone to review facts when you actually dont proffer anything into evidence yourself!

    That was the quickest bromance ever – he loved me when i said Julia no good, but when agree Rudd also defective then he turns faster than Mitt Romney. Must have a hard time keeping friends….

  6. Labor supporters

    If news ltd/Abbott coalition have to go back to the rudd factor , after the budget

    it says one thing

  7. The Murdoch Mouthpiece gives a third of a page to Greg Melleuish. According to Melleuish you can divide the academic world into ‘radical’ enlightenment folk and ‘moderate’ enlightenment folk. The radicals are the bad guys because they use models, are in bed with the Gillard Government, are self-interested,they use abstractions and because they use models which they use to tell us about AGW. This leads to disjuncts between the ‘concrete’ world and practical reality. He seems to think that this leads them to want to take over the world.

    I suppose by way of contrast, we can infer that Melleuish’s moderates do not think abstractly, do not use models and generally bounce from one accidental learning event to the next, or not, as the case may be.

    In my experience, all scientists think abstractly. They all use models. They all feed as much data into the models as they can. When reality does not fit the models, they change the models. When new data comes in they feed it into the models. If the basic science on cause-effect relationships change the scientist change the cause-effect relationships in the models. If the models fail to predict the models are change. If the models fail to retrospectively ‘predict’ what is known historically, they are rejigged.

    All this is standard science. The big corporations use it to develop drugs, arms manufacturers use it to develop next gen weapons, crop scientists use it to develop new GMO plants and on it goes.

    But the climate denialists have some sort of bee in their bonnets about climate models, arguing that they are only models.

    Naturally Melleuish’ pseudo-intellectual rightwing claptrap finds ready space in Murdoch’s Mouthpiece. After all, their boy wonder Abbott reckons that climate science is crap and that CO2 is weightless. I wonder where in the the intellectual firmament Melleuish would place that bit of scientific information?

  8. I think this needs reposting


    Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 2:45 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott’s proposed fiscal approach, outlined in his budget reply on Thursday, is based on some disconcerting gaps in logic. Mr Abbott says that if the Coalition were to be elected on September 14, it would aim to ”take the budget pressure off Australian households, and … strengthen our economy so that, over time, there’s more to go round for everyone”. But his initiatives suggest the Coalition would be a government for business, not the people. Mr Abbott may offer platitudes suggesting the Coalition cares for the broad swath of middle Australia and their ambitions, but its focus will be profit above people; those on low incomes and the disadvantaged will be left behind.

    Read more:

  9. Diogenes@2514


    The dollar has been defying gravity for months. It’s the reason why their is a shortfall on tax receipts. Haven’t you been listening?

    That doesn’t explain why it’s gone down now.

    And tax receipts went up 6% in the last year.

    That 93 cents you quoted before may have been a note buying or selling rate as the current rate is around 97 cents that I can see anyway.

    Why is it dropping? Range of reasons,

    – slower demand from China for our dirt,

    – it has long been regarded as over valued by some,

    – George Soros recently called major Sell on it and then

    – there is the strengthening of the US dollar plus

    – this week in Japan a lot of volatility in their bonds making AUD holders also nervous and selling our current to buy USD ?

    Look at the daily moves AUD – USD. The USD figure is the USD Dollar index which shows moves against a basket of currencies – like our Trade weighted Index.

    then the Weekly moves –

    AUD – USD are regarded as “Trading Pairs” they tend to do the opposite of each other – so traders would go long one and short the other then switch which has been going on for a while but picked this week after the Soros call, but it has been going on since early May.

    US Stockmarket currently roaring ahead, economy improving etc by being goosed with huge ongoing Fed money printing – now if that is taken away ??

  10. My say… yup we’re just waiting to pounce on you. just like the commies under your bed or Obama coming for your guns. You are the NRA of intellectual rigour here!

  11. I know a ‘concern troll’ when I see/read one…

    It ain’t over by a long way …if it was, why do all Liberals & their spruikers sound so desperate and un-hinged every time they do pressers & i/v’s/write columns/appear on Lateline, MTP, Agenda, etc? It’s like they’re trying ever so hard to convince us …that they feel they have to shout & talk over everyone to get THEIR point across …just confirms that they’re very worried…

    They sound anything but confident … They know they’re offering Australian voters a crock of sh*t …and they’re terrified their insane leader will stuff up.

    The wave of relief on the Coalition benches after Abbott finished his campaign launch on Thurs was palpable… relief that Abbott managed to get through the speech without stumbling too much over the big words …or going into a head-nodding silent brain freeze. Relief that he remembered to follow the cues and look earnestly & sincerely into the camera at the right times.

    The content was irrelevant …they all knew it was just a pile of re-heated junk-policies jumbled together with asinine patronizing nonsense designed to fool gullible souls into believing that Abbott is a sensitive,caring,family orientated ‘regular guy’ …’salt of the Earth’ type of unassuming person who rides a thousand kilometres to make the lives of poor & unfortunate souls that little bit more bearable …So don’t be afraid …Abbott will look after you all …don’t you worry about that…blah …blah …blah ..

    Abbott is a dud …a crazy dud. The Coalition has absolutely NOTHING to offer voters …

    What could possibly go wrong over the next 4 months? …It’s in the bag…

  12. Warren Mundine ready to assume position of power under Tony Abbott
    BY:NATASHA ROBINSON From: The Australian May 18, 2013

    [FORMER Labor Party national president Warren Mundine is poised to assume a powerful position in indigenous affairs under a conservative government after forging an extraordinary alliance with Tony Abbott that he declared was “bigger than partisan politics”.

    The Opposition Leader – who has pledged to place indigenous affairs directly under his control in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet if elected – has been grooming Mr Mundine for months as a key adviser and is likely to offer an executive position to the former Labor stalwart if a Coalition government is elected, The Weekend Australian can reveal.]

  13. Mark – everything you say about the Libs is broadly on the money. I have said repeatedly that this coalition offers sweet FA and that Abbott is a clown. Tell me how, with that reality and with Australia’s relatively excellent economic/financial position, that ALP are down 45-55 and have been for 18 months?

    Couldnt have anything to do with total politial ineptness could it?

    Agree Abbott has the capacity to lose it, though he seems to be under max restraint these days and trying to make himself the smallest possible target that he can. Aussies arent particularly taken with him, but if its between him and Julia…

  14. Epat Follower

    ‘Boerwar – considering the abuse piled on you in response to your ‘contributions’ over the years and your reaction to it… I find your post very ironical/amusing ‘

    I thought we had had this concern troll before.

  15. Interesting that the Liberal supporters are raising anything and everything to do with Rudd.

    No comment on the budget palns of Abbott to rip money away from Australias lowest paid workers while providing a massive payment to the wealthy by way of his PPL.

  16. Greensborough Growler 2555

    “The Mining Tax is working as it is supposed to. When there are super profits the miners will pay super profits tax”

    Yeah right – Why 3b in 12/13 budget forecast then ?. Wasn’t the increase in superannuation also attached to the spreading the mining boom sales pitch in order to counter the mining industry backlash. Also remember a co tax rate cut in there somewhere as well.

    Given the failure of the mining tax, this link will obviously impact on the govt’s ability to prosecute its argument against the oppositions proposed super delay.

  17. [I should point out that there are now credit cards that don’t charge transactional fees (up to 3%) for foreign currency transactions.]

    Yes, getting U.S Currency from my local bank was the most expensive conversion.

    Basically for $500AUS I got $500US this was when U.S Dollar was $1.05 to every $1AUD

    Complete ripoff.

    So I thought I’d outsmart the bank and withdraw money from an ATM in the U.S with my mastercard. BAD IDEA. There was a $3 “ATM fee” which showed on the ATM machine, but what I didn’t realise is that Bendigo Bank also charge me $5 fee for not using a Bendigo ATM(which is f;ing stupid because i’m overseas), so $8 a withdrawl, still better then getting cash while in Australia however.

    I did pay for a few things with my Mastercard directly while overseas however and didn’t pay a cent in transaction fees.

    So now I know the cheapest way to pay for things is what you would expect to be the most expensive and thats to pay every single transaction with your credit card.

  18. When I was living in Karratha I was with a cedit union that had no ATM’s. They carged me a fee for not using one of their ATM’s. I carefully and very slowly, so they would understand, that they didn’t have one in Karratha and the nearest was 1200kms away. They refunded the fees to that time….then kept charging me…so I moved all my accounts elsewhere.

    If you are charged a fee when there is no ATM for your bank, ask for the fee to be waived, you may get lucky

  19. I wonder if the Greens and all those others weeping buckets of crocodile tears over the plight of single mums who have been booted onto Newstart after eight or more years on sole parent benefits noticed this in Abbott’s spiel the other night. It will affect many on benefits, not just those on Newstart.
    [Tonight, I confirm that we won’t continue the twice a year supplementary allowance to people on benefits because it’s supposed to be funded from the mining tax and the mining tax isn’t raising any revenue.]

    This is what he was talking about –

  20. [Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, May 18, 2013 at 1:55 pm | PERMALINK
    I assume that the thought of letting the Amateur Hour of Abbott, Robb and Hockey play with the economy is already depressing the value of the dollar and that after September it will be a wild ride indeed.]
    If you are still around, on am this morning Peter Ryan Economic editor , said quote it started falling when Wayne Swan started his speech and has continued. I tweeted and asked why it didn’t he also comment that Australia had it rating reaffirmed at aaa by the 3 rating agencies, after the speech.. Have also complained by will be whitewashed of course.

  21. I just got polled for the first time. Missed who it was but it was the auto one…(is the Reachtell ? )

    Asked the question what is the most important thing that relates to your circumstances in the upcoming election. Health, education, the economy, and a few other choices.

    2. Last few elections did you vote Lab,LNP, Greens, cant’ recall.

    Who will you be voting for this election..

    Are you absolutely certain, certain, not sure, undecided.

    Your age..

    That was about it.

    Pssst, they didn’t have an option for camp4. so I answered swinger voting strongly for labor on the economy.

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