BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition

Nothing doing in this week’s pre-budget poll aggregate, which maintains a holding pattern established in early February.

It’s been a quiet week for polling, with the major pollsters holding their fire ahead of the budget and leaving the field vacant for the regularly weekly Essential Research and Morgan. With each adhering closely to the trend, there are only minor shifts in this week’s aggregated poll result on voting intention (as displayed on the sidebar). The seat projection has nudged two seats in Labor’s favour, one of which it owes to a 3.1% two-party preferred adjustment that was made to the Tasmanian result last week. That left Labor just shy of a second Tasmanian seat, which a 0.3% shift this week on the national result has helped push them over. The other Labor gain comes off the New South Wales total.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,682 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Coalition”

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  1. Tony Abbott’s proposed fiscal approach, outlined in his budget reply on Thursday, is based on some disconcerting gaps in logic. Mr Abbott says that if the Coalition were to be elected on September 14, it would aim to ”take the budget pressure off Australian households, and … strengthen our economy so that, over time, there’s more to go round for everyone”. But his initiatives suggest the Coalition would be a government for business, not the people. Mr Abbott may offer platitudes suggesting the Coalition cares for the broad swath of middle Australia and their ambitions, but its focus will be profit above people; those on low incomes and the disadvantaged will be left behind.

    Read more:

  2. Victoria – so what do you think the best strategy is to avoid a catastrophic loss. I presume its carry on as is and trust the good judgement of the Australian voting public. Fair enough – I disagree as i think the writing is on the wall and has been for a while. At least one can have an opinion without insulting others? Carr wouldnt be the worst choice. Crean perhaps not so good 🙂

    What I find hard to understand is the abject denial of the fact that Julia is hated out there. You guys love her so much you just dont want to see it.

    Yeah Bob, we’ll see come Sept 14. I hope you are right, but would put it at 10% chance at best. I can imagine what your state was post election day in ’75 or ’96… probably dumbfounded, right? were you shocked in the state elections in NSW and Qld also????

  3. Odd but true
    a poll quoted in Fairfax today says that voters are pleased that Abbott supports the disability legilsation…and amazingly..give him much credit for it’s coming into being ???
    dumb voters par excellence

  4. Mr Abbott says that if the Coalition were to be elected on September 14, it would aim to ”take the budget pressure off Australian households,

    and then takes money from households…SchoolKids and $500 super contribution.

    But “rewards” big business with repealling the MRRT and varbon price businesses pay…with no guarantee prices will fall in line with the increases

  5. Kevin

    I’m a bit surprised Windsor voted against it. He’s just the kind of conservative I guessed would vote for it.

  6. Expat follower

    I know that if Julia was a Julian, it would already be much easier for Labor going into the election. But to put out the alternative of Crean and/or Carr is surely conceding defeat

  7. expat follower

    I aadvise you not to follow the fantasy polling shich you do

    the election trend is

    There is no alternative which Abbott is not

    The incumbent stays

    that is reality

    the opinion polling is not

  8. Expat follower

    To support the policies of Labor for the next election does not mean that all of us are “Julia-lovers”.

    To criticise Abbott and the LNP, or to point out their inaccuracies and downright lies, does not mean that all of us are “Julia-lovers”.

    That is a very immature way of looking at this blog. Some of us will continue to support the policies we want to see in the next government, regardless of the leader.

  9. Coalition supporters like to bring up NSW and QLD

    what they dont tell you those government were kept in power for over 10 years because there was no alternative

    same as the federal election

    Labor 83-96 time for a change kicked in the 4th term

    Coalition 06-2007 time for a change kicked in the 4th term

  10. Victoria, yes you can deduce that I have conceded defeat and am purely concerned with keeping House numbers at touching distance (>60) and – much more importantly – preserving non-Coalition control of the Senate.

    My attempted analogy was how the UK tories dumped Iain Duncan-Smith going into the 2005 election and replaced him with someone who had no chance of winning but prevented the horrendous loss due to being relatively benign and respectable – ie Michael Howard. Was thinking who might be that person in the ALP, which is why Carr came to mind. I dont care who it is… but not a future leader for premature sacrifice, not Kevin Rudd (just too cynical)… but I just dont think people are prepared to listen to Julia any more. Have made up their minds and, as much as they arent excited by Tone (and rightly so!!), have decided that he is preferable to her.

    It may well be mysoginy-based, am not looking at the cause but the pragmatic solution. This govt lost the plot politically when it didnt go to a DD over ETS when Tone got the leadership, and has never regained the political upper hand since (2010 survival notwithstanding)

  11. Thanks Victoria
    Quote from the article

    On superannuation, Mr Abbott says a Coalition government would defer by two years the increase to 12 per cent in the superannuation guarantee contribution. Once again, there is no logic to this. Mr Abbott’s pitiful justification is that ”our economy needs encouragement as mining investment starts to wane and new sources of growth are needed”. Well, Mr Abbott, our ageing population will very much need this superannuation in the next few decades; the longer it is delayed, the less earnings that can accrue, and the greater the impost on the public purse in future years. Deferring it is against the community benefit.

    Read more:

  12. Another quaote from the article

    Federal parliamentarians, mind you, receive super contributions amounting to 15.4 per cent of their combined salary and allowances. At the other end of the spectrum, spare a thought for those on low incomes: the Coalition would abandon the $500 bump-up superannuation contribution the government pays to those earning less than $37,000. There is another example of how the gap between the richest in our society and those at the bottom end is likely to widen.

    Read more:

  13. expat follower

    Have you stopped to consider that your suggestions are so cynical that bigger losses would indeed occur as a result?

  14. Take, for example, Mr Abbott’s plan to scrap the twice-a-year payments to people on low incomes and government benefits. Here we find his first contradiction. This is not a payment to dole bludgers, as some conservatives like to deem anyone who receives government payments. The supplementary allowance, introduced by the Gillard government in the 2012 budget, totals just $210 a year and is payable to those on Newstart, the youth allowance, parenting payments, Austudy, sickness allowances, the exceptional circumstances payment, transitional farm family payment or special benefit. One million people are eligible for it, but, if Mr Abbott has his way, they can forget even such modest assistance.

    Read more:

  15. Mr Abbott says that if the Coalition were to be elected on September 14, it would aim to ”take the budget pressure off Australian households, and … strengthen our economy so that, over time, there’s more to go round for everyone”. But his initiatives suggest the Coalition would be a government for business, not the people. Mr Abbott may offer platitudes suggesting the Coalition cares for the broad swath of middle Australia and their ambitions, but its focus will be profit above people; those on low incomes and the disadvantaged will be left behind.

    Read more:

  16. Expat Follower

    Think about this

    if people stopped listening to Gillard, why does news ltd/abbott coalition want a change of leader for

  17. Lizzie,
    you are missing my point. I am in total agreement with you, and I am concerned with preserving the legacy of what has been a good govt in substance and not getting it rolled back by Abbott and his bunch of clowns.

    That is the result I care about, and I think the polling shows that we are at real risk of facing that scenario [Bob, its the same polling that predicted 2007 pretty reasonably – what’s your source of the ‘correct’ figure?]

    With Julia at the helm, we are looking at a catastrophic loss – that is my simple point – and I really would like to avoid a Coalition 40+ seat majority and control of the senate…

  18. It is more likely people have stopped listening to Abbott after his lie about the carbon price , wiping out whyalla

    The only thing what is keeping the coalition in it is

    not Abbott or the coalition

    the reason is


  19. As I have said many here would rather 6 years of Abbott than have Rudd win or save furniture.

    It reveals them as dishonest people when the say having Abbott would be so terrible.

    The solution has been there for a long time but they would rather apparently sacrifice Aust. than have Gillard’s pride hurt by being dumped.

    Yes going to any other candidate will seem like an insult to the public and Labor would be punished just the same.

    How ironic our truly funny that Rudd is Labor’s only Savoir.

  20. The thing what is scaring Murdoch is people are still listening to gillard

    Newsltd only hope is to breach the media laws during the election campaign and keep Abbott out of the public spotlight

  21. Expat

    A troll who feigns concern is known as a concern troll.

    Eg I’m so concerned the Liberals will lose the unloseable election with the hated Tony Abbott at the helm, that I think we should put a more electorate friendly Malcolm Turnbull in as leader. Then the risk of not throwing out this bad government will be diminished.

  22. Victoria – yes indeed I have.

    Cynical would be going back to Rudd. Not because the voters wouldnt like that (they would) but its so blatant a desperate ploy to get some votes that they would be willing to put someone they detest up. Which is why I dont see it happening.

    But at the same time, I honestly am convinced that the baseball bats are out for Julia – guaranteed.. and, given that, whats the best way to avoid the catastrophe. Doing something may be worse, i agree thats possible, but when facing the high likelihood of catastrophe one has to think about measures that give a lifeline out of it.

    Bob… yeah by that logic why are any of us criticising Tony Abbott. If Turnbull took over, you realise thats another 10+ seats to the coalition? Abbott is the best thing the ALP has going for it, but it isnt enough when ppl have stopped listening

  23. So Abbott has already conceded defeat to Gillard in his budget speech by conceding there wont be an early election

    After all the threats by Abbott and Pyne there will be a no confidence motion

  24. …. but then ….
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

  25. Expat Follower

    You are gullible to the media, so there is no point

    if people stopped listening why is newsltd starting to unhinge

  26. So much hubris …it’s all done & dusted …and all because the voters “don’t like Gillard”…

    I thought there ere still 4 months to go before the election …but I was wrong …it’s all been decided by the 4th estate + the polling companies.

    Well it’s a relief not to have to expend any more energy worrying about the outcome. Anyone who still thinks the ALP has even a snowflakes chance in Hell instantly qualifies for a prolonged stay at the funny farm.

    This “guided democracy” we now live in is so much more relaxed and comfortable than the out-dated and unwieldy one where every single voter in Australia had to drag themselves to the voting station come rain, hail or shine.

    No need for expensive and tedious election campaigns …no need for thousands of volunteers to do the hard & thankless work behind the scenes for hundreds of unnecessary candidates from the various major & minor political parties.

    Under our new “guided democracy” …expert political commentators writing for a couple of influential media outlets + well resourced lobby groups for vested interests + shock-jocks …will decide which party will govern & who will become our PM.

    Anyone who demands that the ‘Australian People’ should be allowed to make that choice …is clearly mentally unwell …clearly “DELUSIONAL”…

  27. Some Liberal supporters and the usual doomsayers seem to be saying Abbott had a good week.

    He had a crap week, his shadow Treasurer got a bullocking from Alan Jones for not going far enough, his Shadow Finance Minister is so lazy he missed that $440 million of his savings were not in the Budget.

    8.7 million workers found out they will have less retirement income and Gonski (supported by 65%) has been ditched.

    It is only the first week of the campaign.

  28. the Head of Colon Barnetts Medi team just got a $84,000 per year pay rise.

    This is Liberals caring for the “common” folk

  29. Sprocket / Boerwar… is it actually possible that someone is a supporter but disagrees with its current course – or by definition is that person necessarily a troll or actually faking it.

    There’s a bizarre trait amongst many here – our guys can do no wrong even if it leads us into darkness, lets not question but just give abject support. Kind of stuff that worked a treat in Germany in the 30s and South Africa in the 70s/80s.

    I am definitely voting ALP this election because I think they have been a good government and are certainly better than Tone’s bunch of lightweights… but am not so rusted on that I dont swing. I think there’s more iike me out there in voterland than the ‘sig heil’ kinda myopic ALP supporters on this site

  30. Barnaby Joyce is another one who is going by the wayside as Abbott after the election

    Joyce as with Hewson and Abbott were thinking the media driven opinion polls would get them into government

    But reality is Joyce will not be in parliament , no matter the result

  31. On the DD crud timeline. Sure the Govt has to wait 3 months between legislation being voted against.

    But there is no timeframe on passing or refusing the original legislation. The Senate has a reasonable time to examine it.

    If The Senate wishes to send it off to an enquiry for 6 months there is nothing Abbott can do.

  32. isatzo – you are 100% right. Rudd was a total ninkumpoop who stuffed the golden chalice so badly. At ETS time, ALP were looking at a 90+ seat win in a DD – to see them from there to here is just painful. The only rival for political stupidity imo goes to Peter Costello… if he had the guts to stick around he would be looking at being PM for 10 years now 🙂

    mark – cmon man this isnt some kind of conspiracy. The polling in 2007 was consistently pointing to a Rudd win, the polling in the US last year consistently pointed to Obama retaining office. Those kind of consistent trends are pretty good indicators, I have found. What doesnt work for me are the likes of Bob squealing that its all false and smoke/mirrors without being able to point to anything by way of actual tangible evidence to the contrary.

  33. Expat

    [What I find hard to understand is the abject denial of the fact that Julia is hated out there. You guys love her so much you just dont want to see it.]

    I suppose I was just reacting to the above, which is used so frequently by LNP supporters who come here with their defamation of the government.

    That is why you were immediately labelled a tr**l by some, and misunderstood by others.

  34. I think we have had the Expat Follower concern troll before. So this would be a bit of sock puppet. He has difficulty holding it all together for very long. The usual trajectory is that anytime about now he will start to whinge about being personally abused.

    Not worth taking seriously.

  35. [but then ….
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !]

    Dishonesty from Gillard supporters is a given here.

    Rudd muffed nothing.

    The reason he isn't PM now and was knifed is simply to do with factions protecting their power which having Gillard warm the chair for them does.

    The only one's muffing it are Labor's scared MPs and Gillard polishers here.

  36. expat follower

    A truly united Labor party have an excellent chance of prevailing. That is the key to success or minimal losses. They need to be totally united and fighting the good fight every day until election day and beyond

  37. [[Swan should never have made the surplus pledge. Without it Labor would look far better.]

    Personally I am sick to death of reading this Liberal inspired (and media endorsed) drivel repeated over and over again. It’s all nonsense. Who in their right mind judges economic management on ‘process’ over ‘outcome’? Or the ‘look’ over ‘actuality’? For goodness sake how often do corporate boards flag revised data to the stock exchange based on reality over aspiration? Do we demand their heads because this as a weakness? No, this is exactly what they should do. Has anybody EVER heard a board give forecasts with a ‘maybe/maybe not/might do/ but you never know’ disclaimer? Of course, not because their shares would tank.

    Wayne Swan, Gillard and the government were exactly right to stick with the forecasts because it was vital to the broader economy that fed off them. And they were exactly right to slow their drive for surplus when the numbers changed for exactly the same reason.

    [ …I’ve been a member of the G20 leadership group since its inception and one of the early decisions for developed economies was to put in place exit strategies, and ‘to put number around them to give confidence’… that’s what we did. Was it politically unwise? I guess you could say yes. Was it politically uncomfortable? I think you can yes. Was it in policy sense unwise? No, because showing a clear path to surplus has brought enormous benefit to this country and we’re still showing it.

    Everybody looks for certainty… everyone wants things to be black and white… this is not a comment about journalists or politicians… we have coped with and responded to what has been a complex, nuanced, changing policy environment that doesn’t lend itself to public commentary and reporting…

    … we took the middle course and slightly delayed our return to surplus in the interests of jobs and growth and I’ll never apologise for trying to make our economy strong.

    Wayne Swan NPC]

    To all those obsessed with the headlines and fabricated woe when you wouldn’t give a shit about it if it wasn’t mentioned … put a sock in it because you’re being played and you look stupid.

    If you’re not happy with an economy the envy of the world… you never will be.

  38. …….aaaaand ….
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to crimson blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

  39. Boerwar – considering the abuse piled on you in response to your ‘contributions’ over the years and your reaction to it… I find your post very ironical/amusing 🙂

  40. …. but then ….
    >>>> Rudd has no-one to blame but his-crimson-self …….. he muffed it ! <<<< ……ad-flamin'-infinitum !

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