A relatively quiet week for national polling, with two new results available for the BludgerTrack update:
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, this time enlisting 3418 respondents from its combination of face-to-face, online and SMS polling, recorded a sharp uptick for the Coalition, up four on last week’s primary vote result to 48% with Labor down two to 30.5% and the Greens up half a point to 11%. That came out particularly bruisingly on Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred calculation, which showed the Coalition lead blowing out from 54.5-45.5 to 58-42. The result on 2010 election preferences was a milder 56.5-43.5, compared with 54-46 last time.
• Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
The impact of the new Morgan multi-mode series on the current BludgerTrack modelling is still very slight, although this will begin to change as more data becomes available for assessing its performance. For now the result on national voting intention is little changed on last week, bringing an end to three weeks of movement to Labor. The availability of new state-level data from Essential Research has sent Labor back two on the seat projection by weakening their position in New South Wales and Western Australia.
Two doses of preselection news:
• The Australian reports on four contenders to fill Barnaby Joyce’s Queensland Senate vacancy, which he will formally create at the start of the election campaign period to facilitate his run in New England. The candidates are Barry O’Sullivan, who has stood aside as the treasurer of the LNP while he considers whether to run; David Farley, Australian Agricultural Company managing director, who caused a brief stir last August when he suggested the Prime Minister was a “non-productive old cow” who might be put to use at an abattoir he was spruiking; Larry Anthony, famously well pedigreed former member the north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond; and Ray Brown, mayor of Western Downs. Mentioned elsewhere were Theresa Craig, a down-list candidate on the LNP Senate ticket; Susan McDonald, “daughter of former National Party president Don McDonald and a member of a family cattle dynasty”; Kerry Latter, chief executive of Mackay Canegrowers; and Julie Boyd, former mayor of Mackay. The preselection will be held on May 25, despite the view of some that the matter be left until after the election to give unsuccessful lower house candidates an opportunity to run. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported “senior members of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s team” were of a similar mind, although his public position is in line with that of the LNP state executive.
• Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor in New South Wales is “under growing pressure to intervene in the preselection of a candidate for the federal seat of Throsby”. Head office has apparently held off so far to give incumbent Stephen Jones a chance to shore up his local numbers, but the upper hand has remained with local Right forces associated with state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. This grouping now wants the seat for one of its own, something it has long been denied by a centrally enforced factional arrangement reserving Throsby for Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” faction. This time however, state secretary Sam Dastyari has been insistent in promising a local ballot. Andrew Crook of Crikey hears the local rebellion is opposed by more senior figures in the Right, who have been “hitting the phones to demand Hay forces back down or face brutal retaliation in the form of damaging media leaks that could cut short the Wollongong MP’s controversial career”. The putative challenger is John Rumble, a local nurse and son of former state MP Terry Rumble. Stephen Fitzpatrick of The Australian reported a fortnight ago that Rumble had not definitively secured the crucial support of Hay, who suggested a third candidate might emerge. Former state Kiama MP Matt Brown, who was sacked as a state government minister in 2008 over an affair that involved him dancing in his underwear in his parliamentary office, told The Australian he had been asked to stand by “branch members”.
Finally, the final results are in from the Western Australian election, with indicative Liberal-versus-Labor two-party preferred counts completed for seats where other parties or candidates made the final count in the formal preference distribution. This reveals that the final two-party preferred vote for the Liberals was 57.2%, a swing in their favour of 5.4%. It should be emphasised that the two-party preferred concept is complicated in Western Australia by the large number of highly competitive contests involving the Liberals and the Nationals, which raises the question of whether Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals counts should be used for the electorates in questions. The AEC’s practice has been to use the Nationals count where the party wins the seat, but the WAEC favours Labor-versus-Liberal counts which tend to be somewhat more favourable for Labor. Antony Green has used the Labor-versus-Nationals count for Pilbara to preserve continuity with the calculation for the 2008 election, at which no Labor-versus-Liberal count for Pilbara was conducted. The two-party preferred numbers cited below are entirely from Labor-versus-Liberal counts.
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION March 9, 2013 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY # % Change Seats Change Liberal 559,917 47.1% +8.7% 31 +7 Nationals 71,694 6.1% +1.2% 7 +3 Labor 392,470 33.1% -2.7% 21 -7 Greens 99,437 8.4% -3.5% Independent 34,467 2.9% -1.5% -3 Australian Christians 21,451 1.8% -0.8% Family First 7,039 0.6% -1.4% # % Change Formal 1,184,475 94.0% -0.7% Informal 75,577 6.0% +0.7% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.2% +2.7% Two-party preferred Liberal 677,231 57.2% +5.4% Labor 506,623 42.8% -5.4% LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL # % Change Seats Change Liberal 583,500 47.6% +8.0% 17 +1 Nationals 59,804 4.9% -0.4% 5 - Labor 398,260 32.5% -3.6% 11 - Greens 100,624 8.2% -2.9% 2 -2 Australian Christians 23,877 2.0% -0.3% Shooters & Fishers 21,765 1.8% 1 +1 Independent 20,633 1.7% +0.2% Family First 16,760 1.4% -1.1% # % Change Formal 1,225,223 97.2% 0.0% Informal 35,706 2.8% 0.0% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.3% +2.7%
0.5% levy increase
My morning editorial, cross-posted from
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/the-delusional-budget-debate/#comment-239840
[Manifestly, the issue for the budget and for whoever wins in September is to figure out how to support labour demand. Jobs are the key to household incomes and therefore to property and banking. This is obviously no small thing in an economy where household debts are so high.
Because spending cuts to an already-tight budget will harm jobs, it will not be possible to reduce the deficit on the spending side. But because the deficit will soon be running at 4-5-6% of GDP – if left to itself – it will be necessary to raise taxes and abolish the shelters in order to limit the increase in the deficit.
So the reform package involves depreciation, all-embracing tax reform, self-conscious use of the budget to support labour demand, and a complete re-write of the investment/productivity framework.
These things should be done immediately.
If any Government tries to balance the budget simply by cutting spending, we will see pressure on jobs and therefore in housing and banking that could provoke the worst collapse in property and household credit since the 1890′s.
My premise is that the deficit will swell very quickly from around 1-1.5% now to significantly higher levels very quickly. We can predict this from what we know about the net income deficit (2% of GDP), the end of the investment boom (and its capital inflows), the fall in the terms of trade, the trade deficit, the share of future export income that will accrue abroad, the rise in household savings and the fall in domestic investment, all of which point to rapidly falling public sector savings/rising deficits.
The economy is probably already at or has just passed through a turning point in its nominal growth trajectory – that is, nominal growth could now be declining. This would be consistent with the steep fall in the growth rate of company tax receipts and the decline in capital gains tax collections.
In this case, in the absence of measures to support nominal incomes (either higher deficits. lower interest rates or depreciation or all three) further declines in nominal GDP will become self-propelling and soon be generating real GDP contraction, with all that entails for jobs and household finances.
We are very probably at this point right now. Treasury, Finance, PM&C and the RBA have all missed the inflection point in revenues. It follows they have probably missed the inflection point in the economy more generally. If so, then we will get a budget that ignores change in the trajectory of the economy and it will be out of date before it is even printed.
This budget, like those that follow, has to be about averting a collapse in jobs while also adding impetus to necessary – really, unavoidable – structural change.
Swan should have a go at it, even if it is the last thing he will do in office.]
Julia has put a peg in the ground for the election. The NDIS levy would commence 1/7/2014. If you want decent disability care you will have to vote for it.
This will force Abbott to go to the election with a clear position one way or the other.
“@mick_power: So I have to pay $1 per day more to give disabled Australians a fair chance at life? Sounds GREAT, send me the bill! #auspol #NDIS”
Swan seems most genuine with the pride he has expressed in this NDIS announcement.
BK
Labor is making all Australians proud today.
@kimmaree_tweet: cool the way the PM does not give a rats about the ranting/spin of the MSM about lie/backflip and just does what is right anyway
NDIS. funding announced!……”SOCIETY FOR EVERYBODY!”
Apparently my tweet at #85 refers to a fake Chris Kenny. Extra kk in centre.
Guytaur
If people are listening (big “if”), they’ll likely be freaked out by the uncertainty of the government saying there is a major revenue shortage and leaving all options on the fable.
That’s the first level. The second level is “Gillard = tax, liar, undemocratic, interferer, bad” and so on.
Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no.
Woohoo way to go Macklin. Big KAPOW to media reporting standards.
I hope Julia hammers the journos here.
An amusing description of the government’s confected outrage at itself on 457s as it makes up ‘anecdotal evidence’ to pander to racists:
[“the government’s decision to also “campaign” against the alleged failure of its own skilled migration program to prevent purportedly massive levels of “rorts” involving “illegitimate” deployment of 457 visas. I’m not sure I recall the last time a government tried to whip up support for a campaign against its own policies, but right now we seem to have the ALP shouting, “We demand we do something about this!”]
http://larvatusprodeo.net/archives/2013/05/guest-post-by-tad-tietze-the-alp-and-the-politics-of-anti-immigration-both-kinds/
Jenny – wtte “If you had read the NDIS legislation that passed earlier this year the answer to your question is in it. Dummy!”
To keep NDIS bipartisan Abbott will have to promise same levy increase.
spur212
That is one of the most mean-spirited, unimaginative posts against the govt that I have read. This is a genuine social change that will help many people struggling with illness, as well as increase the productivity so beloved by the right wing, and you have to nit-pick.
j-v, I’m shocked and deeply saddened, but find I agree with you on something – 457’s, to be exact. The idea that the Government should diss its own policies is absurd.
Gauss if you are still around your 41 starts with an error
[you obviously don’t understand the CGT change]
I am a tax lawyer and know CGT quite well thank you. You actually indexed the cost base of your asset so that an asset that hadn’t actually increased in value didn’t result in a CGT gain – ie you were not taxed on inflation.
It was and is terrible policy to only tax 50% of the gain that isn’t adjusted. My memory at the time was Costello promising the reduced tax would actually increase CGT revenue. A stupid and terrible lie to go with a stupid and terrible policy.
The NDIS announcement is excellent.
All the Coalition will do is chop off the NDIS part and focus on the “levy” and link it to everything else.
It’s not about the NDIS to them. They’re prepared to be unpopular on it because they know their message will hit the bigger theme which is what they’ve been saying for the last three years: this government raises taxes and fumbles delivery (where it counts).
Wash rinse and repeat
Lizzie #116
+1 – what a pathetic creature
spur212
That means the LNP will be campaigning against people in wheelchairs
IMHO the liberals do NOT support the NDIS, never have and have ZERO intention to implement it.
As is usual for Abbott he just doesn’t have either the courage or the inclination to tell the truth.
Llizzie I’m wondering if the Chris Kenny rubbish is to generate an audience for Sky and readers for LimitedNews.
Lizzie
I support the change. It’s brilliant reform. What people on here will do is make it out to be “game changing, election winning, Coalition destroying” tactical manoeuvres, when it’s the opposite politically.
Now Julia uses a question from Comedian Riley to challenge Abbott to tell us how he would fund it – “in real terms, not political platitudes, slogans or the talking of nonsense.”
Swan follows up with some welll aimed side swipes at Sloppy and the BCA.
This idea of “playing to the electorate” like IT is the font of all wisdom is absurd…example : Car stuck on level crossing..Three choices..; a)call assistance and push car off track. b) Leave car in situ rather than bother anybody and hope you can flag the train down. c) Just step away from situation and stand with arms crossed because you think you know the driver of the train and if he were you you’d put the brakes on and save the day.
I’d suggest the third option is most representative of the electorate and their “knowledge” of the LNP….well, good luck to that!
Guytaur
Nope. All they’ll do is say “we support the NDIS, we’ll fund it when there is money in the budget without using a great big tax” and focus on everything they’ve said previously about the ALP/Gillard delivering policy. They’ll probably throw in something about the importance of getting such a big reform right so that there aren’t any issues for said people in wheelchairs.
[Chris Kenny @chriskkkenny 33m
.@vanOnselenP is a traitorous turd. By attacking Abbott he’s openly declared himself in the Gillard camp]
Mr Kenny may live to regret posting this tweet for all to see. Use of the word “traitorous” implies that Kenny, Van Onselen and others have signed up to a conspiracy to install Abbott in the Lodge.
In fact, it can be plausibly argued that the conspiracy is not to support Abbott per se, but to install a regime to do the will of powerful local and international interest groups
By implicitly exposing this conspiracy in his tweet, Kenny now leaves himself exposed as a person who talks too much and is therefore expendable.
spur212
Read the Kurt Fearnley tweets. The stories by Stella Young. Add to that all the voices being silent now who will make them heard if they feel under threat.
spur212
I’m glad you can give credit where it’s due.
Perhaps it would be wiser to tackle individual posters when they comment, instead of labelling us in groups. Not all of us are blind to negatives, but prefer to be silent instead of entering into the arguments.
citizen
That’s a fake chris kenny. 🙁
Guytaur
I get it! I support them! What you don’t get is it isn’t about process or policy detail to the Coalition. It’s about something far more complex and the ALP have played right into it once again
citizen
Turns out to be a fake tweet
spur212
I am pointing out to you why that strategy will fail. Too many people invested in this directly and indirectly.
In fact Abbott recognised this in his bipartisan support.
Fake support by LNP will not work they have to actually support.
Remember this Levy idea was proposed first by Premier Newman publicly at Government level
spur212@120
Well STFU and don’t give it oxygen.
That’s if your point of view is even credible, which I don’t concede.
lizzie@109
spur212@110
So now you know what people who don’t vote Labor think about NDIS even though that policy has only just been announced ?
Now you know tory voters who have family with disabilities will be –
[ Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. ]
Wadda guy. Wadda ‘gift’ to know this about millions of people who haven’t even seen the details of this excellent idea.
Guytaur
It’s not about the NDIS to the Coalition. It’s about everything else. As for Newman, he’ll claim the PM is backing down and declare victory.
[Community, church and union groups have written an open letter to the Federal Government, calling for unemployment benefits to be increased by $50 a week.]
Without going into the pros and cons of increasing the dole I’d just like to see the churches start to pay taxes before they call on anyone to spend taxes in particular areas of society.
Link for my #140
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-01/open-letter-pushes-government-to-increase-dole/4661662
Meanwhile, a small adjustment to the Medicare levy will seem like the token change it actually is, when people have a look at this:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/australian-manufacturing-pmi-signals-full-blown-crisis/
Manufacturing is in GFC-like decline. The above story should be compulsory reading for anyone interested in the economy and politics.
We are quite obviously slipping into recession. The budget MUST be deployed to avert this. The Government should also intervene to procure cuts in interest rates and the exchange rate without any delay.
The consensus view in the policy-making bureaucracy is just wrong. It is time the Government exercised its responsibilities and changed the settings in this economy. There is absolutely no time to lose, if, in fact there is any time left at all.
[It’s not about the NDIS to the Coalition. It’s about everything else. As for Newman, he’ll claim the PM is backing down and declare victory.]
So what’s your point? Do nothing? Is that your position?
I don’t like the suggestion the libs have a complex strategy labor is failing to spot. Lie about everything is about as simple as it gets, after all the repugs developed it. It is VERY hard to counter when you have a mindless media and a stupid population as they definitely do in the US and we may have here.
[citizen
That’s a fake chris kenny.]
Thanks for that – I’m a bit slow to type and post my contributions.
However, I think it is plausible that people like (the real) Kenny would be saying something like that to Van Onselen. Since 2010 at least, the team of writers at Murdoch media and elsewhere has been dedicated to the overthrow of the government. In their minds, Van Onselen is a traitor to the cause with his latest comments.
spur212
On this I think your analysis of the sucess of LNP atrategy is really wrong.
This because you think the disabled will be fooled with what directly affects them from what I understand of your points.
Tom Hawkins
My position is support for the policy. Their position will be to link the “levy” to their larger campaign strategy.
Stella Young was saying on 24 that people forget that ALL, including the disabled, will be contributing to the medicare levy.
Except those who pay no tax? Whose numbers will increase if Coal lowers the taxation level.
spur212
The electorate have a choice come September. If they prefer what Abbott and his cronies have to offer, so be it. There is no point in Labor being in govt, if all they are required to do is emulate the coaltiion.
Guytaur
They’re the Coalition! They don’t care about the disabled! Disabled people will overwhelmingly endorse the policy. That’s not the point. It’s the Coalition’s much larger game that I’m talking about