BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Coalition

A poor showing for Labor in the latest Morgan poll combined with a static Essential Research result have halted the weak momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A relatively quiet week for national polling, with two new results available for the BludgerTrack update:

• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, this time enlisting 3418 respondents from its combination of face-to-face, online and SMS polling, recorded a sharp uptick for the Coalition, up four on last week’s primary vote result to 48% with Labor down two to 30.5% and the Greens up half a point to 11%. That came out particularly bruisingly on Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred calculation, which showed the Coalition lead blowing out from 54.5-45.5 to 58-42. The result on 2010 election preferences was a milder 56.5-43.5, compared with 54-46 last time.

Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.

The impact of the new Morgan multi-mode series on the current BludgerTrack modelling is still very slight, although this will begin to change as more data becomes available for assessing its performance. For now the result on national voting intention is little changed on last week, bringing an end to three weeks of movement to Labor. The availability of new state-level data from Essential Research has sent Labor back two on the seat projection by weakening their position in New South Wales and Western Australia.

Two doses of preselection news:

• The Australian reports on four contenders to fill Barnaby Joyce’s Queensland Senate vacancy, which he will formally create at the start of the election campaign period to facilitate his run in New England. The candidates are Barry O’Sullivan, who has stood aside as the treasurer of the LNP while he considers whether to run; David Farley, Australian Agricultural Company managing director, who caused a brief stir last August when he suggested the Prime Minister was a “non-productive old cow” who might be put to use at an abattoir he was spruiking; Larry Anthony, famously well pedigreed former member the north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond; and Ray Brown, mayor of Western Downs. Mentioned elsewhere were Theresa Craig, a down-list candidate on the LNP Senate ticket; Susan McDonald, “daughter of former National Party president Don McDonald and a member of a family cattle dynasty”; Kerry Latter, chief executive of Mackay Canegrowers; and Julie Boyd, former mayor of Mackay. The preselection will be held on May 25, despite the view of some that the matter be left until after the election to give unsuccessful lower house candidates an opportunity to run. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported “senior members of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s team” were of a similar mind, although his public position is in line with that of the LNP state executive.

• Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor in New South Wales is “under growing pressure to intervene in the preselection of a candidate for the federal seat of Throsby”. Head office has apparently held off so far to give incumbent Stephen Jones a chance to shore up his local numbers, but the upper hand has remained with local Right forces associated with state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. This grouping now wants the seat for one of its own, something it has long been denied by a centrally enforced factional arrangement reserving Throsby for Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” faction. This time however, state secretary Sam Dastyari has been insistent in promising a local ballot. Andrew Crook of Crikey hears the local rebellion is opposed by more senior figures in the Right, who have been “hitting the phones to demand Hay forces back down or face brutal retaliation in the form of damaging media leaks that could cut short the Wollongong MPโ€™s controversial career”. The putative challenger is John Rumble, a local nurse and son of former state MP Terry Rumble. Stephen Fitzpatrick of The Australian reported a fortnight ago that Rumble had not definitively secured the crucial support of Hay, who suggested a third candidate might emerge. Former state Kiama MP Matt Brown, who was sacked as a state government minister in 2008 over an affair that involved him dancing in his underwear in his parliamentary office, told The Australian he had been asked to stand by “branch members”.

Finally, the final results are in from the Western Australian election, with indicative Liberal-versus-Labor two-party preferred counts completed for seats where other parties or candidates made the final count in the formal preference distribution. This reveals that the final two-party preferred vote for the Liberals was 57.2%, a swing in their favour of 5.4%. It should be emphasised that the two-party preferred concept is complicated in Western Australia by the large number of highly competitive contests involving the Liberals and the Nationals, which raises the question of whether Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals counts should be used for the electorates in questions. The AEC’s practice has been to use the Nationals count where the party wins the seat, but the WAEC favours Labor-versus-Liberal counts which tend to be somewhat more favourable for Labor. Antony Green has used the Labor-versus-Nationals count for Pilbara to preserve continuity with the calculation for the 2008 election, at which no Labor-versus-Liberal count for Pilbara was conducted. The two-party preferred numbers cited below are entirely from Labor-versus-Liberal counts.

WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION
March 9, 2013

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY
			#	 %	Change	Seats	Change	
Liberal			559,917	 47.1%	+8.7%	31 	+7	
Nationals		71,694	 6.1%	+1.2%	7 	+3	
Labor			392,470	 33.1%	-2.7%	21 	-7	
Greens			99,437	 8.4%	-3.5%		
Independent		34,467	 2.9%	-1.5%		-3	
Australian Christians	21,451	 1.8%	-0.8%		
Family First		7,039	 0.6%	-1.4%		

			#	 		%	Change
Formal			1,184,475		94.0%	-0.7%
Informal		75,577			6.0%	+0.7%
Enrolment/Turnout	1,412,533   		89.2%	+2.7%

Two-party preferred
Liberal			677,231			57.2%	+5.4%
Labor			506,623			42.8%	-5.4%

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
			#	 %	Change	Seats	Change	
Liberal			583,500	 47.6%	+8.0%	17	+1  	
Nationals		59,804	 4.9%	-0.4%	5	-   	
Labor			398,260	 32.5%	-3.6%	11	-   	
Greens			100,624	 8.2%	-2.9%	2	-2  	
Australian Christians	23,877	 2.0%	-0.3%
Shooters & Fishers	21,765	 1.8%		1	+1  	
Independent		20,633	 1.7%	+0.2%
Family First		16,760	 1.4%	-1.1%

			#	 		%	Change	
Formal			1,225,223	 	97.2%	0.0%
Informal		35,706		 	2.8%	0.0%
Enrolment/Turnout	1,412,533	 	89.3%	+2.7%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 56
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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Ross Gittens has a very good article on personal financial stress. It won’t cut it with the likes of Sloppy because it’s mostly based on solid facts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/another-day-poorer-deeper-in-debt-20130430-2ir5t.html
    Hmm. The old adage abouut sleeping with dogs comes to mind.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/man-accused-of-bribe-attempt-backed-torbay-to-push-out-windsor-20130430-2ir5v.html
    Hardly a surprising comment from thr BCA.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/disability-levy-a-big-mistake-says-business-leader-20130430-2ipyx.html
    At Last! Bur the Greens are not happy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/tasmanian-forest-wars-are-over-20130430-2iqb1.html
    Here we go. Abbott virtually said that penalty rates are closing small businesses so he’s going to fix that issue but not change pay or conditions. Where is this dill coming from??
    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/push-to-wind-back-penalty-rates-20130430-2ir5o.html
    What’s next for Essendon.
    http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/what-next-for-essendon-20130430-2ir7k.html
    Tell me about it!
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/the-great-bridal-train-robbery/story-fndo1sdf-1226632632496
    A good one from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg expresses his disgust with the international rag trade.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe on the budget deliberations.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  2. From today’s Cut & Paste

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/cut-paste/who-could-go-lower-than-mark-latham-perhaps-eddie-and-craig-and-ian-and-michael/story-fn72xczz-1226632610085

    PRACTICE makes perfect as the former Labor leader prepares to shimmy under the limbo bar again.

    How low can you go? Paul Murray Live, Sky News, March 11:

    MARK Latham: Anyone who reads Andrew Robb’s Black Dog Daze could not possibly vote Liberal … I’d be letterboxing chapter 16, where the man who wants to be the finance minister admits that he lied about his mental illness and the impact of his medication.

    Peter Reith: How low are you gonna go, Mark? I mean seriously.

    A new low in Australian public life? Latham in the Australian Financial Review yesterday:

    WHILE politicians sometimes lie about policy proposals, I have never known an MP to be disingenuous about something as important as mental illness and the impact of their medication. (Andrew) Robb has set a new low in Australian public life.

    Latham, Hansard, June 21, 2000:

    I SAID that we needed to learn lessons from (Greg Wilton’s) death … is it still too much to expect the media to show just a speck of sensitivity and consideration to those suffering depressive illnesses? … These stories could not have been published unless people in the political system contributed to them. They have given new meaning to the term “political animal”, because only an animal would go out of its way to pressure and harass someone with a depressive illness. Only an animal would have seen Greg Wilton as a political number instead of a human life. Only an animal would have been so cold, so calculating and so ruthless … people can proclaim their compassion for humanity in the abstract as loudly as they like but there is no such thing as humanity in the abstract … If you treat people in your lives with contempt, then your great compassion for humanity in the abstract does not mean a lot.

  3. [‘I have to translate the words ‘negative gearing’ to people overseas because it just sounds crazy to have a system that rewards people for losing money.”
    ”Removing it would be close to the top of my agenda. I have a list of what I regard as the worst tax decisions of the last 20 years. One is the halving of the headline rate of capital gains tax [in 1999] that made negative gearing attractive.”
    ”The others are the abandonment of indexation of petrol excise, the senior Australian tax offset – the measure that says if you are over 65 you pay less tax on a given amount of income than if you are under 65 – and the abolition of income tax on super fund earnings paid to people over 60.”
    ”They would be my contenders for the dumbest tax decisions of the last 20 years. Frankly, I can’t choose between them.”]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/negative-gearing-costs-other-taxpayers-13b-20130430-2irf3.html#ixzz2Rz084HL5

    The dumbest tax decisions of the last 20 years, all of them made by the dumbest and laziest treasurer in Australia’s history.

    This is what is meant by a structural deficit, over $25 billion in dumb ongoing tax breaks whose impact was hidden by the money flowing from the mining boom and a share market inflated by more tax breaks.

    It was short sighted selfish policy by Howard and Costello cutting off essential ongoing revenue streams.

  4. [the audience was on the edge of their seats hoping he would back up the rhetoric with some measurable policy moves to advance the cause of women executives.
    It was never going to happen. Thus Hockey’s decision to ”open up” in front of the audience was – he thought – a better fallback position than standing up reciting the appalling female board and executive participation rates but providing no robust plans to do much about it.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/politics-comes-first-in-gender-debate-20130430-2iqzz.html#ixzz2Rz2AgrOK

    Piss and wind, Hockey has never been one to grasp policy and the hard work that goes with it. He has done the same at other business functions.

  5. Abbott in 2013

    [Mr Abbott said on Monday penalty rates may be costing jobs and suggested a Coalition government could voice its support for particular cases brought before the Fair Work Commission. ‘I am confident that if the government were to back, for argument’s sake, applications to the Fair Work Commission for adjustments in this area it may well be successful.”]

    And Abbott will assure success in abolishing penalty rates simply by more receptive appointments to the Commission.

    Abbott’s views on industrial commissions.

    [Mr Abbott said the best option for aggrieved workers was to find alternative employment.

    “That is the best protection. Not going off to some judge, or industrial commission, that might order your employer, who you don’t like, and he doesn’t like you, to keep you in an unhappy partnership forever,]

  6. castle @ 16

    From your link

    One is the halving of the headline rate of capital gains tax [in 1999] that made negative gearing attractive.โ€

    It wasn’t a halving. It was a change from the former complicated indexation of capital gains to a 50% rate if you held the asset for more than 1 year. Whether as result you effectively paid more or less tax depended not only on the “real” gain but also how long you held the asset.

  7. Congratulations davidwh another little one to smother with unconditional love ๐Ÿ™‚

    bk Gittins leaves the political journos for dead with every article. Thanks for the day’s starters.

  8. castle

    You beat me to Hockey’s link, but I was stunned at his insensitivity. He’s the big SNAG who took paternity leave, he’s got a high status wife, and he tells down-home tales about his family surviving the bad times.

    His real attitudes come through.
    [I guess he thought dispensing with a prepared speech in favour of homespun tales of his great-grandmother/grandmother/mother and daughter would appeal to that feminine sympathy chromosome.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/politics-comes-first-in-gender-debate-20130430-2iqzz.html#ixzz2Rz5yViPH

  9. [How low can you go?]

    Thanks for that again Gauss, I cannot believe Robb went that low nor that anyone is low enough to defend him and attack Latham. Disgusting thanks for highlighting the depths of Sky and the Australian.

  10. Everyone too scared to do anything that affects the better-off.
    [The 2010 Henry Tax Review declined to recommend against the practice – its chairman Ken Henry telling a press conference as he was preparing the report that he ”still wears the scars” from an earlier short-lived experiment with limiting negative gearing in the 1980s.

    ”I actually think Henry was incredibly wussy about it,” Bank of America economist Saul Eslake said on Tuesday. ”I have to translate the words ‘negative gearing’ to people overseas because it just sounds crazy to have a system that rewards people for losing money.”
    ”Removing it would be close to the top of my agenda. I have a list of what I regard as the worst tax decisions of the last 20 years. One is the halving of the headline rate of capital gains tax [in 1999] that made negative gearing attractive.”
    ”The others are the abandonment of indexation of petrol excise, the senior Australian tax offset – the measure that says if you are over 65 you pay less tax on a given amount of income than if you are under 65 – and the abolition of income tax on super fund earnings paid to people over 60.”
    ”They would be my contenders for the dumbest tax decisions of the last 20 years. Frankly, I can’t choose between them.”]
    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/negative-gearing-costs-other-taxpayers-13b-20130430-2irf3.html#ixzz2Rz8Ij3OP

  11. Hockey and Abbott are at odds over several things now.
    [But while the levy suggests the scheme’s future is assured, it and Ms Gillard’s school funding reforms face new doubts after the Coalition indicated neither reform was assured of identical funding under a government led by Mr Abbott.

    In a series of mixed messages, the Opposition Leader has re-committed to the disability scheme but questioned the wisdom of a levy and hinted that the start date should be subject to the state of the economy. At the same time, the shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said an Abbott government would scrap Labor’s school funding deal with the states and territories unless it had unanimous support.

    That is despite NSW Liberal Premier Barry O’Farrell agreeing to it last week. ”We have said repeatedly that if all states don’t sign up, then it is not a plan we can support,” Mr Hockey told Sky News on Tuesday, contradicting the opposition’s previous stance.
    His statement came hours after fellow Liberal frontbencher Jamie Briggs said the Coalition would ”of course” be bound by any agreements entered into with the states.]
    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-locks-in-a-new-levy-20130430-2ir6e.html#ixzz2Rz91yICH

  12. Castle

    I can think of dumber ones
    1. Negative gearing needs to be wound back but very slowly because of decisions people have already made and because of the impact on the housing market
    2. I am NOT sure about the capital gains stuff – again too much of Australia’s wealth is in the housing market so it might be hard to remove it – but once again slowly slowly ie put on some upper limits on capital gains which are taxed less and gradually let it shrink
    3.Agree with diesel offset – at least for mining companies – not sure about farmers
    4. As an over 60 I have a vested interest in not taxing super income. However I think this it is not a good idea to change this – older people have high expenses but greatly reduced incomes. The money usually goes back in to the community.

    My tax initiatives are:

    Bring in 75% high taxes for anyone earning more than $5 mill/yr, 65% for those over $3 mill, 55% for those over $1 mill. It may not be a huge money earner but would restore a sense of equity – a quick guess indicates it would raise about $1 bill per year.

    Put a 10% (GST) on all exchanges OUT of Australian dollars. This would firstly catch the oldies who spend their tax free income traveling. Secondly it would reduce off shoring of salaraies and payment of executives in other nations and finally balance be the equivalent of GST on imports.

  13. lizzie I have no trouble choosing between the stupidity of negative gearing and the the halving of the CGT rate.

    Both are bad tax policy but negative gearing is politically difficult and entrenched, the halving of the CGT rate was entirely unnecessary politically, and entirely stupid. Unforgivable incompetence – pretty much the hallmark of Costello.

  14. OK, OK, I know you don’t care a jot about this.

    [smh.com.au โ€@smh 30s
    Tom Waterhouse claims he backed More Joyous in Saturday’s All-Aged stakes. Andrew Johns tells a different story. http://ow.ly/kAhPZ ]

  15. Morning

    This says it all about the attitude of Australians re asylum seekers

    Gnossienne โ€@gnossienne5 11h
    @GMegalogenis I work for a Fed MP. Flood of emails after #4corners on live export. Emails today re asylum seekers = exactly zero! Shame!]

  16. I’ve just seen the PM’s speech from Monday and her “John” homily. You know the one where she recommended John go into further debt because his income rises weren’t up to expectation.

    I cannot believe she did this. Watch for a dive in the polls.

    On 22 Apr I said: –

    Posted Monday, April 22, 2013 at 9:15 pm |

    Iโ€™ve just consulted the tea leaves
    Expect improving ALP Polling up to the budget, mid May: then a precipitous drop to new depths

    Looks like I was out a little in the poll timing. The PM should have stayed in China ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

  17. Good Morning

    Here we go. Looks like Abbott rolled.

    @farrm51: Joe Hockey on RN just left open the prospect of the Coalition retreating on generous paid parental leave funded by a tax increase.

  18. I carefully watched Michael Chaney’s talk on Lateline. Some of it was supportive of govt’s decisions, some not. Guess which bits ABC headlined this morning? And then they quoted Costello. ๐Ÿ˜ก

  19. Morning all.

    Things are about to get interesting for Barnett if the govt implements a levy to fund the NDIS. WA hasn’t signed up to it, yet it would mean WA would be paying a levy for a service it doesn’t receive.

    [As a full-time carer for her daughter Jodie, who needs care 24 hours a day, Jenny Quarmby hung her head in frustration as she heard they could miss out on the benefits from a levy tipped to pay for the National Disability Insurance Scheme.]
    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/16956220/carers-call-for-barnett-to-sign-up/

  20. [Barnett] … is out of his depth and lacking any assistance in his cabinet … hopefully the paid advisors pick up their game … but Barnett sadly seems all politics no substance or good policy for WA.

  21. [@gemmadaley1: PM Gillard, Swan and Macklin 9.20 am press conference in Melbourne #NDIS]

    Sadly labor leaks way too much, this should have waited for the budget, they seem to decide and need to press release immediately.

  22. WeWantpaul @ 29

    Both are bad tax policy but negative gearing is politically difficult and entrenched, the halving of the CGT rate was entirely unnecessary politically, and entirely stupid. Unforgivable incompetence โ€“ pretty much the hallmark of Costello.

    From your comment you obviously don’t understand the CGT change. I’ll give you an example.

    Under the old system I could calculate the gain by discounting the value by the CPI. If there was no nominal gain when I sold the asset I took a capital loss which I could apply against other capital gains.

    Under the new 50% CGT my capital gain/loss was zero. No losses to apply against other capital gains.

    It was a excellent policy change which made the administration cheaper and simpler. From memory I believe treasury calculated that in the long run it would be revenue neutral.

  23. Izzue It seems that Saul Eslake has picked 3 things that Howard and Costello brought in. It seems he’s still not impressed with their economic genius.

  24. [In a series of mixed messages, the Opposition Leader has re-committed to the disability scheme but questioned the wisdom of a levy and hinted that the start date should be subject to the state of the economy. At the same time, the shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said an Abbott government would scrap Labor’s school funding deal with the states and territories unless it had unanimous support.]

    Start date subject to the economy, so no NDIS then.

    The libs scrapped the planned increase in super from 9-12% because the economy could not afford it and this was during the boom years.

    Abbott has also repeatedly said the economy cannot afford the NBN.

  25. lizzie Apologies for rotten spelling in last post. My hand and this tablet are having a fight ๐Ÿ™‚

    Tablet certainly uses less downloads tho. I got through a month on fast time.
    Just need to check, check, check before hitting submit

  26. Surprised at this from Van Onselen

    โ€œ@vanOnselenP: The signs are building that conservatives are planning to declare war on the rest of us once Abbott becomes PM…my column this weekend.โ€

  27. Because my Bayesian aggregation gives more effect to the Morgan multi-mode poll than William’s Bludgertrack, we have a divergence in current opinion … William says 55/45 … Mark says 55.7/44.3

    http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/weekly-aggregation-443-to-557.html

    The overdispersion in Morgan (and the underdispersion in Essential) have me wondering whether I need to add an element in the Bayesian model that weights covariance.

  28. WWP:

    From memory, just under 1/5 of the WA population lives with a disability. When you factor in parents, carers and family members you have a reasonably-sized chunk of voters who are directly or indirectly affected by disability.

    I think Barnett is on a loser with this one, esp as there are no clear details on how My Way(???) is going to work or be better than a federal scheme.

  29. “guytaur โ€“ I read a little Keynes while studying an Economics Degree at UWA”
    It was a short quote on the brochure promoting that semester’s courses…..he was sucking on an “iced coffee” at the time……
    Is “iced coffee” a slang term for something?

  30. guytaur:

    That is very interesting from PvO. Remember that he usually gets all the good goss from the Liberals. Wonder what he’s heard.

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