GhostWhoVotes reports that the first bi-montly Victorian Newspoll result on Denis Napthine’s watch has the two parties at 50-50, after Labor lead 53-47 in January-February. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (up four), 37% for Labor (down one) and 12% for the Greens (down one). Personal ratings offer a further impression of a Napthine honeymoon overcoming any sense of government disarray, with Napthine recording a 43-24 lead as preferred premier against 38-31 for Ted Baillieu in the last poll. He also has a 50% approval rating and 19% disapproval compared with 31% and 53% for Baillieu. However, a spike in Daniel Andrews’ ratings is scarcely less striking: he’s up 12 points on approval to 42% and down eight on disapproval to 28%. Full tables here.
Short honeymoon then.
I think the decision to ramp up the number of B Triple trucks on Victorian roads is not going to help Napthine’s cause if Labor exploits it well. Hopefully the voters won’t remember that it was Labor who (stupidly in my opinion) introduced them here in the first place.
The Newspoll Victoria tables:
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/04/28/1226631/204955-130429-vic-newspoll.pdf
1
The Victorian Reachtel polls (new since the last election) have been more favourable to the Coalition than the Newspolls.
I think that the Newspoll is spread over 2 months and so this poll is not entirely Ted free but the next one will be.
Napthine wins over voters says Herald-Sun
______________
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/premier-denis-napthine-winning-over-voters-according-to-latest-newspoll/story-e6frf7kx-1226631201818
Labor’s 2pp is still 1.6% above where they were for the last election. That combined with a likely favourable re distribution to Labor coming up still puts Labor in the driver’s seat atm.
Long way to go, but I don’t think the Libs should be rejoicing on these numbers.
GG @ 6
Agree that there is a long way to go and that the redistribution may give the ALP a notional majority BUT the Libs are looking better now (from a poll point of view) than they did a few months back. Daniel Andrews may have to start looking over his shoulder especially as Martin Pakula is now in the lower house.
Looking at the tables, and considering the Nationals are usually under-represented in these polls, don’t the primary figures look a lot like the last election? I get the feeling it’s more like 51-49 than 50-50/
Yes Paluka did such a great job at the by-election why not make him LOTO
If Labor want to improve its vote in Victoria they could do worse than go back to basics and focus on issues liek this. A major construction company is responsible for a site where a predictible collapose kills three innocent pedestrians. This highlights that safety is an issue that affects everyone, not just workers on the site.
Yet the workers who seek to protest againt them are threatened with jail. WTF? Is Dennis Napthine the new Joh Bjelke Petersen? Is he trying to make Melbourne the Kingaroy of the south?
[Building industry employees who attend a controversial mass rally on Tuesday morning will be breaking workplace laws if they attend without their employer’s permission, the industry regulator has warned.
Between 5000 and 10,000 building industry workers and unionists are expected to turn out for the rally, which will stop at the site of March’s deadly CUB site wall collapse in Swanston Street.]
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/union-warned-on-grocon-rally-20130429-2io71.html#ixzz2Rp3dKwrs
[Yes Paluka did such a great job at the by-election why not make him LOTO]
Another one suckered by News Ltd distortions. The by-election result was perfectly standard. There was no “15% swing”, in fact there was no discernable “swing” to anyone. The Labor+Green+Sex vote was 58.8%, only 2% down on the Labor+Green vote in 2010. The primary vote sprayed because there was no Liberal and because Hung Vo took some of Labor’s Asian vote. A contested by-election in a marginal (such as Frankston) would be a very different story.
Though Hung Vo did also contest at the 2010 election, and took very little of Labor’s Asian vote on that occasion. I’d be interested to learn what was different this time.
A commenter on Mumble offers the following:
[By the way of a background, the big issue for the locals was the “stink”, a rancid smell emanating from a number of open tips in the green belt that has made summer unbearable in Springvale and Noble Park.
In the by-election Hung Vo campaigned strongly against the “stink” in his campaign, pointing out that the ALP had done very little to allievate the smell or even raise its profile or address it as part of the by-election. It was the issue that locally that had traction and it’s no accident the closer you were to the “stink”, the bigger was the fall off in ALP votes (namely in Springvale and Springvale South which are right adjacent and up wind to the smell), they just wanted it fixed.]
I travelled to and from Springvale station many times over summer and I never noticed the slightest odour in the air. It must be elsewhere in the area or maybe wasn’t as bad or didn’t affect as big an area as the commentary suggests.
True psephos but some of that sex party would be donkey so it will go FF first, and secondly only 70-80% of Greens goes to labor. Remember that you only get paid on primary vote- this shows that there will be a swing in Victoria enough to claim 5 maybe 6 seats
14
What were the wind direction(s) and approximate temperature(s) the times you went to Springvale?
Maybe you just were there at the times when the wind was blowing the stink away from Springvale?
How far south of Springvale station did you go?
The dynamics of by-elections are quite different those of general elections. A candidate in an urban seat with a local grievance like Vo will not get much media traction in a general election, which is dominated by the statewide campaign. In a by-election, particularly an uncontested one, he can get much more attention, and get some of the anti-incumbent vote. Overall there was no Left v Right swing at all. The 34% “Right” vote from 2010 was divided between Vo, FF and DLP, who got 35% between them (assuming all of Vo’s vote is “Right” which is not the case).
Tom the first and best@16
I travelled there by bus from the west to take a train to the city several days a week over the whole summer (and March, which actually was worse for heat), so I’m sure winds and temperature varied every which way. Evidently you had to be closer to Noble Park to notice it.
At 4.00pm I should add, around peak temperature time.
Here you go psephos
Stephen Nowland
FFP
13465
43.0
+43.0
Martin Pakula
ALP
17878
57.0
-6.9
….
Now we have the final result, I stand by my view that there was no genuine swing. A by-election not contested by one of the major parties cannot produce a swing. Such by-elections in safe seats frequently produce quirky results because local factors come into play which would not have any effect at a general election. In this case, Hung Vo was able to take 9% as a result of a dispute between the Labor councillors on Greater Dandenong Council and the Vietnamese community over the naming of a square. (http://dandenong-leader.whereilive.com.au/news/story/springvale-public-square-naming-vote-sparks-protest/) Those who followed Vo’s HTV, nearly all loyal Labor voters at state and federal elections, finished up preferencing Family First ahead of Labor. This alone is enough to account for the apparent drop in Labor’s vote. This dispute is of no party-political significance and would have no effect on how people voted in a state, let alone federal, election.