BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Coalition

A poor showing for Labor in the latest Morgan poll combined with a static Essential Research result have halted the weak momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

A relatively quiet week for national polling, with two new results available for the BludgerTrack update:

• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, this time enlisting 3418 respondents from its combination of face-to-face, online and SMS polling, recorded a sharp uptick for the Coalition, up four on last week’s primary vote result to 48% with Labor down two to 30.5% and the Greens up half a point to 11%. That came out particularly bruisingly on Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred calculation, which showed the Coalition lead blowing out from 54.5-45.5 to 58-42. The result on 2010 election preferences was a milder 56.5-43.5, compared with 54-46 last time.

Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.

The impact of the new Morgan multi-mode series on the current BludgerTrack modelling is still very slight, although this will begin to change as more data becomes available for assessing its performance. For now the result on national voting intention is little changed on last week, bringing an end to three weeks of movement to Labor. The availability of new state-level data from Essential Research has sent Labor back two on the seat projection by weakening their position in New South Wales and Western Australia.

Two doses of preselection news:

• The Australian reports on four contenders to fill Barnaby Joyce’s Queensland Senate vacancy, which he will formally create at the start of the election campaign period to facilitate his run in New England. The candidates are Barry O’Sullivan, who has stood aside as the treasurer of the LNP while he considers whether to run; David Farley, Australian Agricultural Company managing director, who caused a brief stir last August when he suggested the Prime Minister was a “non-productive old cow” who might be put to use at an abattoir he was spruiking; Larry Anthony, famously well pedigreed former member the north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond; and Ray Brown, mayor of Western Downs. Mentioned elsewhere were Theresa Craig, a down-list candidate on the LNP Senate ticket; Susan McDonald, “daughter of former National Party president Don McDonald and a member of a family cattle dynasty”; Kerry Latter, chief executive of Mackay Canegrowers; and Julie Boyd, former mayor of Mackay. The preselection will be held on May 25, despite the view of some that the matter be left until after the election to give unsuccessful lower house candidates an opportunity to run. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported “senior members of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s team” were of a similar mind, although his public position is in line with that of the LNP state executive.

• Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor in New South Wales is “under growing pressure to intervene in the preselection of a candidate for the federal seat of Throsby”. Head office has apparently held off so far to give incumbent Stephen Jones a chance to shore up his local numbers, but the upper hand has remained with local Right forces associated with state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. This grouping now wants the seat for one of its own, something it has long been denied by a centrally enforced factional arrangement reserving Throsby for Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” faction. This time however, state secretary Sam Dastyari has been insistent in promising a local ballot. Andrew Crook of Crikey hears the local rebellion is opposed by more senior figures in the Right, who have been “hitting the phones to demand Hay forces back down or face brutal retaliation in the form of damaging media leaks that could cut short the Wollongong MP’s controversial career”. The putative challenger is John Rumble, a local nurse and son of former state MP Terry Rumble. Stephen Fitzpatrick of The Australian reported a fortnight ago that Rumble had not definitively secured the crucial support of Hay, who suggested a third candidate might emerge. Former state Kiama MP Matt Brown, who was sacked as a state government minister in 2008 over an affair that involved him dancing in his underwear in his parliamentary office, told The Australian he had been asked to stand by “branch members”.

Finally, the final results are in from the Western Australian election, with indicative Liberal-versus-Labor two-party preferred counts completed for seats where other parties or candidates made the final count in the formal preference distribution. This reveals that the final two-party preferred vote for the Liberals was 57.2%, a swing in their favour of 5.4%. It should be emphasised that the two-party preferred concept is complicated in Western Australia by the large number of highly competitive contests involving the Liberals and the Nationals, which raises the question of whether Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals counts should be used for the electorates in questions. The AEC’s practice has been to use the Nationals count where the party wins the seat, but the WAEC favours Labor-versus-Liberal counts which tend to be somewhat more favourable for Labor. Antony Green has used the Labor-versus-Nationals count for Pilbara to preserve continuity with the calculation for the 2008 election, at which no Labor-versus-Liberal count for Pilbara was conducted. The two-party preferred numbers cited below are entirely from Labor-versus-Liberal counts.

March 9, 2013

			#	 %	Change	Seats	Change	
Liberal			559,917	 47.1%	+8.7%	31 	+7	
Nationals		71,694	 6.1%	+1.2%	7 	+3	
Labor			392,470	 33.1%	-2.7%	21 	-7	
Greens			99,437	 8.4%	-3.5%		
Independent		34,467	 2.9%	-1.5%		-3	
Australian Christians	21,451	 1.8%	-0.8%		
Family First		7,039	 0.6%	-1.4%		

			#	 		%	Change
Formal			1,184,475		94.0%	-0.7%
Informal		75,577			6.0%	+0.7%
Enrolment/Turnout	1,412,533   		89.2%	+2.7%

Two-party preferred
Liberal			677,231			57.2%	+5.4%
Labor			506,623			42.8%	-5.4%

			#	 %	Change	Seats	Change	
Liberal			583,500	 47.6%	+8.0%	17	+1  	
Nationals		59,804	 4.9%	-0.4%	5	-   	
Labor			398,260	 32.5%	-3.6%	11	-   	
Greens			100,624	 8.2%	-2.9%	2	-2  	
Australian Christians	23,877	 2.0%	-0.3%
Shooters & Fishers	21,765	 1.8%		1	+1  	
Independent		20,633	 1.7%	+0.2%
Family First		16,760	 1.4%	-1.1%

			#	 		%	Change	
Formal			1,225,223	 	97.2%	0.0%
Informal		35,706		 	2.8%	0.0%
Enrolment/Turnout	1,412,533	 	89.3%	+2.7%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “BludgerTrack: 55.0-45.0 to Coalition”

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  1. Morning All

    Good move by Julia to increase the medicare levy to partly pay for the NDIS – disgraceful move to put children back into detention centres. Who is this party and what do they believe in??? They are pushing me closer and closer to deliberately voting informally for the first time ever.

    While there is still plenty of time and they can win – it’s not looking good. As a result, I hope they go hard in the budget and leave an even bigger legacy by slashing middle class welfare and pushing through major tax reforms. It will hurt them politically but the country will thank them longer term – maybe sacrifice this election for the longer term good of the country. This might be a unique opportunity to do so.

    Here’s a short list of things they should do

    Tax trusts at company rates

    Abolish the 50% capital gains tax discount and find a different, less generous way, to make it work

    Cap rental losses to one property

    Fix the mining tax

    Means test the childcare rebates

    Abolish FTB A and B and find a better way to make those payments without the churn – i.e. through a lower tax rate

    etc etc etc

    Do it Labor, what have you got to lose???

    Speaking of losing – the Bombers need to go, it is a joke that a team that had a systematic doping regime is 5 and zip and the AFL is yet to act. The process needs to be sped up!!!

  2. so it seems abbott will never have n d I s.
    needs a strong surplus,

    the surplus would never be big enough for him or the liberals to do anything for people on disability pension.
    to morrow any one you could have a stroke, or an accident,

    how many times have you heard the statement
    ‘why me’

    these things happen to other people not me or my family,

    so if you agree with abbott re ndis

    you don’t give a toss about your family

    simple as that.
    and of course it applies to other policies also
    education and health

    up to you of course,
    but in our home we put our family first
    its like insuring your house,

    against fire only a fool would not insure ones home\

    people with big money coming in like abbott

    would be able to tap in to what is out there ‘\
    and that’s not much if you suddenly
    have a stroke or injury,

    but the ordinary wage earner no,

  3. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 2m
    Economic liberalism would be welcomed, by me at least, but there will be little of that I suspect…]

    Hardly anything new.

  4. david

    when our sedond and third where born

    we new the third had vey severe problems

    but the second was not picked up till late last year

    I am going to be blunt herew


  5. my say

    Exactly the point Stella Young makes in her column on the Drum today.

    None of us know what the future holds and when we might need support to cope with life.

    What is appalling is the false economy. Studies have shown that having the NDIS will add to the growth of GDP and that it is a good investment. On the Project last night they mentioned that just the carers being able to return to work will add $1.5 Billion or so to the economy.

    NDIS great investment just on economic terms.

  6. also david had an email from my teacher cousin in

    qld discussing the school sell off,

    he said qld has turned in to a grazy place to live,
    no one knows form what day to day if they have a job
    or what will happen to them

    very cynical about the land that is attached to these schools

    and what will happen to the land,

    so all very nice to have new grand children

    but if you realy care\]\

    why would you be a liberal voter

  7. sounds like Hockey is shaping up to hold back most of their spending announcements until the pre election budget update – he can’t be allowed to get away with that

    off too work, have a great day all

  8. MegaGeorge having fun this mornign!
    [George Megalogenis ‏@GMegalogenis 6m
    Hey @chriskkenny one of your colleagues @vanOnselenP has just turned lefty. Time to pull out that mantra again: ‘Leave Tony alone’.]

  9. of course it is guytuar.

    I saw woman in there 30s yes people in their 30

    in old peoples nursing homes, becauce of stroke

    they had there ” normal” thoughts and could talk
    but could

    not move,,, and here they where on lounges in the dinning rooms with 80 year olds
    some with dementia

    people that do not want support of people with disablitly
    deserve all the karma they get

    I am being very out spoken this morning and the same person will have a go
    frankly I don’t care,

    the complacency that briefly spoke about is out there,

    it sickening

    and the other thing the media who do not do their job

    telling people about all sides of the coin
    karma to them to

  10. I believe that PMJG should state in her pitch for the NDIS, what is the point of being in govt if they dont do anything to improve the society for its citizenry.

  11. case one

    we have a friend who has a child with curable pusley

    the child is now 8 , the friend never returned to work after the birth has she had planed
    they have three other children,

    husband is a traddie.

    she use to also do the books,

    she now and has done for some years gone backwards and forward to Melbourne
    every three months for botox
    injections for her child NOT HER.
    thought I make that clear,

    she pays her own way on the plane we where on a flight with here when we took our grandson too one of our many

    trips to Melbourne,

    first she gets the wheel chair out, of the boot, they had to have a bigger car, ( not easy expensive}
    no one to help so we did of course, while I held our grandson,
    the staff are good at virgin air lines in this way, first on the plane and help with chairs and pushers

    first off,.
    there is some help for a while re taxis to the royal chidrens hospital but that is only short term

    then U pay,

    botox helps these little ones joints work better but not for a few days.

    but then it stop helping so back to Melbourne again

    the family have so much strain the other children miss out and the life is continually unsure,

    would you like to live like this would
    you deny these families help.

    the other children some times miss out on special treats

    this could be your famiy tomorrow

  12. daretotread % 28

    My tax initiatives are:

    Bring in 75% high taxes for anyone earning more than $5 mill/yr, 65% for those over $3 mill, 55% for those over $1 mill. It may not be a huge money earner but would restore a sense of equity – a quick guess indicates it would raise about $1 bill per year.

    Put a 10% (GST) on all exchanges OUT of Australian dollars. This would firstly catch the oldies who spend their tax free income traveling. Secondly it would reduce off shoring of salaries and payment of executives in other nations and finally balance be the equivalent of GST on imports.

    On your first point “earn 1 Billion dollars”. It would actually have a negative impact on tax collected. People would leave the country en mass and take their money with them, to boot.

    On your second point. It would catch 1/2 of the billions of dollars transacted weekly in Forex AUD (est. currently at about 7.6% (AUD portion) of $4 trillion (all currencies) or $AUD304, Billion per day. 1/2 of 10% of this equals 15.2 Billion per day.

    Dumb & dumber.

  13. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 8m
    So Coalition committed to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP but can’t commit to NDIS and education.]

  14. You know, I really can’t believe it!…these people in the opposition, WHEN YOU GET TO SEE THEM!, have to be the most gormless bunch of no-hopers EVER in the House…speaking of which we have the LOTO being the only one (that I can recall) in ALL HISTORY that actually ran from the House to fulfil a concocted proposition!….the ONLY ONE…EVER!…and there are people who are comfortable to vote for such a moron!….and then there is Bernardi, Mirabella, Abetz, Dutton, and Hunt..can’t leave HIM out!..Hunt from Dunt!…and the rest…I can’t bring myself to write their names down, it is too wearying to dwell on such innane stupidity…and there are people who would give their vote for them!
    Truly, honestly, these LNP. schemers and conspirators…these miserly wankers, these dodging and weaving sychophants, these scrapings from the chipping-pile at the night-soil bucket depot…does anybody seriously believe they have the best interests of the nation at heart?

  15. dareto tread

    if you had spent less time talking about rudd

    you could of found out
    and done some useful stuff here
    like policy

  16. post 73


    who are so dam selfish and up themselves

    please have it tweeted

  17. gauss
    [On your first point “earn 1 Billion dollars”. It would actually have a negative impact on tax collected. People would leave the country en mass and take their money with them, to boot.]

    Good riddance to them.

  18. The Institute of Public Affairs have said that Abbott should emulate the most radical left wing PM in Aust history. Gough Whitlam.

    They could not find a Liberal PM they believe he should emulate.

  19. I expect a transcript will be posted on twitter of PMJG’s NDIS announcement today.
    I will post here when I see one available.

    Ten minutes to go

  20. Gauss

    Tax on the rich and recession are not connected.

    If anything according to you conservatives letting debt get out of control causes recession. The basis of Austerity.

  21. I find the lack of examination of Abbott’s policies as a deception by MSM and Liberal supporters.

    Abbott will repeal the current carbon reduction legislation (hurray I hear). After repealing the legislation and removing the revenue it generates that funds the tax cuts and compensation he plans to retain those tax cuts etc. No explanation of where he will find the $4.5 billion in the budget to fund them. On top of that he will introduce Direct Action – cost $3.2 billion (and most likely a lot more as compensation is paid to industry). Total cost of of these policies – approx $16+bilion over 3 years. No explanation of where the money will come from in the budget.

    Abbott will introduce his parental leave plan. Cost to business is more than the current carbon price. Anyone thinking this extra tax on business will not be passed on the consumers has their head in the sand. It was reported that banks will increase interest rates 0.5%. Woolworths are looking at a $40 million bill….we will pay for it.

  22. Gauss

    Yep good riddance to them.

    If Big Gina wants to move to Singapore, let her go. Nationalise her mining assets and then float them onto the stock exchange.

    Win/win for everyone.

  23. Apparently PvO is not allowed to say he has any reservations about Abbott govt or he’s a traitor. Chris Kenny shows how “objective” he is.

    [Chris Kenny ‏@chriskkkenny 11m
    .@vanOnselenP is a traitorous turd. By attacking Abbott he’s openly declared himself in the Gillard camp #auspol #youknowitmakesense ]

  24. Guytaur, any suggested locations for watching PMJG this morning? I’ve got ABC 24 on but fear they’ll cross to interviewing themselves halfway through …

  25. Gauss

    [Beleaguered Socialist party leader defends 75% supertax on rich and appeals for calm as France teeters on brink of recession]
    Spot the difference. Tory party leader David Cameron slashes taxes for those earning over a million pounds. The UK teeters on the brink of a triple dip recession.

  26. victoria@63

    I believe that PMJG should state in her pitch for the NDIS, what is the point of being in govt if they dont do anything to improve the society for its citizenry.


    Keep the agenda on policy, on good equitable policy – policy the tories and their maaates at the big end of town hate.

    Force the tories into either supporting NDIS or not and get voters thinking about this and other issues.

  27. lizzie

    Looks like Mega George was right.
    [Hey @chriskkenny ……….. Time to pull out that mantra again: ‘Leave Tony alone’]

  28. Wow this announcement important to abc first time we have seen such a long shot of the podium while waiting for announcement to start.

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