A relatively quiet week for national polling, with two new results available for the BludgerTrack update:
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, this time enlisting 3418 respondents from its combination of face-to-face, online and SMS polling, recorded a sharp uptick for the Coalition, up four on last week’s primary vote result to 48% with Labor down two to 30.5% and the Greens up half a point to 11%. That came out particularly bruisingly on Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred calculation, which showed the Coalition lead blowing out from 54.5-45.5 to 58-42. The result on 2010 election preferences was a milder 56.5-43.5, compared with 54-46 last time.
• Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
The impact of the new Morgan multi-mode series on the current BludgerTrack modelling is still very slight, although this will begin to change as more data becomes available for assessing its performance. For now the result on national voting intention is little changed on last week, bringing an end to three weeks of movement to Labor. The availability of new state-level data from Essential Research has sent Labor back two on the seat projection by weakening their position in New South Wales and Western Australia.
Two doses of preselection news:
• The Australian reports on four contenders to fill Barnaby Joyce’s Queensland Senate vacancy, which he will formally create at the start of the election campaign period to facilitate his run in New England. The candidates are Barry O’Sullivan, who has stood aside as the treasurer of the LNP while he considers whether to run; David Farley, Australian Agricultural Company managing director, who caused a brief stir last August when he suggested the Prime Minister was a “non-productive old cow” who might be put to use at an abattoir he was spruiking; Larry Anthony, famously well pedigreed former member the north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond; and Ray Brown, mayor of Western Downs. Mentioned elsewhere were Theresa Craig, a down-list candidate on the LNP Senate ticket; Susan McDonald, “daughter of former National Party president Don McDonald and a member of a family cattle dynasty”; Kerry Latter, chief executive of Mackay Canegrowers; and Julie Boyd, former mayor of Mackay. The preselection will be held on May 25, despite the view of some that the matter be left until after the election to give unsuccessful lower house candidates an opportunity to run. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported “senior members of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s team” were of a similar mind, although his public position is in line with that of the LNP state executive.
• Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor in New South Wales is “under growing pressure to intervene in the preselection of a candidate for the federal seat of Throsby”. Head office has apparently held off so far to give incumbent Stephen Jones a chance to shore up his local numbers, but the upper hand has remained with local Right forces associated with state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. This grouping now wants the seat for one of its own, something it has long been denied by a centrally enforced factional arrangement reserving Throsby for Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” faction. This time however, state secretary Sam Dastyari has been insistent in promising a local ballot. Andrew Crook of Crikey hears the local rebellion is opposed by more senior figures in the Right, who have been “hitting the phones to demand Hay forces back down or face brutal retaliation in the form of damaging media leaks that could cut short the Wollongong MP’s controversial career”. The putative challenger is John Rumble, a local nurse and son of former state MP Terry Rumble. Stephen Fitzpatrick of The Australian reported a fortnight ago that Rumble had not definitively secured the crucial support of Hay, who suggested a third candidate might emerge. Former state Kiama MP Matt Brown, who was sacked as a state government minister in 2008 over an affair that involved him dancing in his underwear in his parliamentary office, told The Australian he had been asked to stand by “branch members”.
Finally, the final results are in from the Western Australian election, with indicative Liberal-versus-Labor two-party preferred counts completed for seats where other parties or candidates made the final count in the formal preference distribution. This reveals that the final two-party preferred vote for the Liberals was 57.2%, a swing in their favour of 5.4%. It should be emphasised that the two-party preferred concept is complicated in Western Australia by the large number of highly competitive contests involving the Liberals and the Nationals, which raises the question of whether Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals counts should be used for the electorates in questions. The AEC’s practice has been to use the Nationals count where the party wins the seat, but the WAEC favours Labor-versus-Liberal counts which tend to be somewhat more favourable for Labor. Antony Green has used the Labor-versus-Nationals count for Pilbara to preserve continuity with the calculation for the 2008 election, at which no Labor-versus-Liberal count for Pilbara was conducted. The two-party preferred numbers cited below are entirely from Labor-versus-Liberal counts.
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION March 9, 2013 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY # % Change Seats Change Liberal 559,917 47.1% +8.7% 31 +7 Nationals 71,694 6.1% +1.2% 7 +3 Labor 392,470 33.1% -2.7% 21 -7 Greens 99,437 8.4% -3.5% Independent 34,467 2.9% -1.5% -3 Australian Christians 21,451 1.8% -0.8% Family First 7,039 0.6% -1.4% # % Change Formal 1,184,475 94.0% -0.7% Informal 75,577 6.0% +0.7% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.2% +2.7% Two-party preferred Liberal 677,231 57.2% +5.4% Labor 506,623 42.8% -5.4% LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL # % Change Seats Change Liberal 583,500 47.6% +8.0% 17 +1 Nationals 59,804 4.9% -0.4% 5 - Labor 398,260 32.5% -3.6% 11 - Greens 100,624 8.2% -2.9% 2 -2 Australian Christians 23,877 2.0% -0.3% Shooters & Fishers 21,765 1.8% 1 +1 Independent 20,633 1.7% +0.2% Family First 16,760 1.4% -1.1% # % Change Formal 1,225,223 97.2% 0.0% Informal 35,706 2.8% 0.0% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.3% +2.7%
Morning All
Good move by Julia to increase the medicare levy to partly pay for the NDIS – disgraceful move to put children back into detention centres. Who is this party and what do they believe in??? They are pushing me closer and closer to deliberately voting informally for the first time ever.
While there is still plenty of time and they can win – it’s not looking good. As a result, I hope they go hard in the budget and leave an even bigger legacy by slashing middle class welfare and pushing through major tax reforms. It will hurt them politically but the country will thank them longer term – maybe sacrifice this election for the longer term good of the country. This might be a unique opportunity to do so.
Here’s a short list of things they should do
Tax trusts at company rates
Abolish the 50% capital gains tax discount and find a different, less generous way, to make it work
Cap rental losses to one property
Fix the mining tax
Means test the childcare rebates
Abolish FTB A and B and find a better way to make those payments without the churn – i.e. through a lower tax rate
etc etc etc
Do it Labor, what have you got to lose???
Speaking of losing – the Bombers need to go, it is a joke that a team that had a systematic doping regime is 5 and zip and the AFL is yet to act. The process needs to be sped up!!!
so it seems abbott will never have n d I s.
needs a strong surplus,
the surplus would never be big enough for him or the liberals to do anything for people on disability pension.
BUT TAKE NOTE
to morrow any one you could have a stroke, or an accident,
how many times have you heard the statement
‘why me’
these things happen to other people not me or my family,
so if you agree with abbott re ndis
you don’t give a toss about your family
simple as that.
and of course it applies to other policies also
education and health
up to you of course,
but in our home we put our family first
its like insuring your house,
against fire only a fool would not insure ones home\
people with big money coming in like abbott
would be able to tap in to what is out there ‘\
and that’s not much if you suddenly
have a stroke or injury,
but the ordinary wage earner no,
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 2m
Economic liberalism would be welcomed, by me at least, but there will be little of that I suspect…]
Hardly anything new.
Can anyone summarise exactly what the NDIS will deliver – who is eligible and what does it pay for?
david
first
congratulations
when our sedond and third where born
we new the third had vey severe problems
but the second was not picked up till late last year
I am going to be blunt herew
NONE OF US KNOW WHEN WE WILL NEED N D I S
[Joe O’Brien @joeobrien24 10m
Why fund an NDIS? Stella Young gives her perspective http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-01/young-ndis-funding/4661842 … I’ll talk to her later on #abcnews24 after PM’s announcement ]
my say
Exactly the point Stella Young makes in her column on the Drum today.
None of us know what the future holds and when we might need support to cope with life.
What is appalling is the false economy. Studies have shown that having the NDIS will add to the growth of GDP and that it is a good investment. On the Project last night they mentioned that just the carers being able to return to work will add $1.5 Billion or so to the economy.
NDIS great investment just on economic terms.
DTT:
You can read about it yourself:
http://www.fahcsia.gov.au/disability-and-carers/news/2013/national-disability-insurance-scheme-rules-consultation-paper-released
also david had an email from my teacher cousin in
qld discussing the school sell off,
he said qld has turned in to a grazy place to live,
no one knows form what day to day if they have a job
or what will happen to them
very cynical about the land that is attached to these schools
and what will happen to the land,
so all very nice to have new grand children
but if you realy care\]\
why would you be a liberal voter
sounds like Hockey is shaping up to hold back most of their spending announcements until the pre election budget update – he can’t be allowed to get away with that
off too work, have a great day all
MegaGeorge having fun this mornign!
[George Megalogenis @GMegalogenis 6m
Hey @chriskkenny one of your colleagues @vanOnselenP has just turned lefty. Time to pull out that mantra again: ‘Leave Tony alone’.]
of course it is guytuar.
I saw woman in there 30s yes people in their 30
in old peoples nursing homes, becauce of stroke
they had there ” normal” thoughts and could talk
but could
not move,,, and here they where on lounges in the dinning rooms with 80 year olds
some with dementia
people that do not want support of people with disablitly
deserve all the karma they get
I am being very out spoken this morning and the same person will have a go
frankly I don’t care,
the complacency that briefly spoke about is out there,
it sickening
and the other thing the media who do not do their job
telling people about all sides of the coin
karma to them to
I believe that PMJG should state in her pitch for the NDIS, what is the point of being in govt if they dont do anything to improve the society for its citizenry.
davidwh
Congratulations on the arrival of grandchild. All the very best to you all
lizzie:
I think Mega George is enjoying being off the News ltd leash.
Congrats DWH.
I missed your earlier comment.
For anyone who’d like to know more about the Press Gallery
http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/04/30/your-guide-to-the-press-gallery-and-its-gatekeeper/
case one
we have a friend who has a child with curable pusley
the child is now 8 , the friend never returned to work after the birth has she had planed
they have three other children,
husband is a traddie.
she use to also do the books,
she now and has done for some years gone backwards and forward to Melbourne
every three months for botox
\
injections for her child NOT HER.
thought I make that clear,
she pays her own way on the plane we where on a flight with here when we took our grandson too one of our many
trips to Melbourne,
first she gets the wheel chair out, of the boot, they had to have a bigger car, ( not easy expensive}
no one to help so we did of course, while I held our grandson,
the staff are good at virgin air lines in this way, first on the plane and help with chairs and pushers
first off,.
=====================================
there is some help for a while re taxis to the royal chidrens hospital but that is only short term
then U pay,
botox helps these little ones joints work better but not for a few days.
but then it stop helping so back to Melbourne again
the family have so much strain the other children miss out and the life is continually unsure,
would you like to live like this would
you deny these families help.
the other children some times miss out on special treats
this could be your famiy tomorrow
CERABLE PAUSY
when I am upset and annoyed my spell check goes out the window
daretotread % 28
My tax initiatives are:
On your first point “earn 1 Billion dollars”. It would actually have a negative impact on tax collected. People would leave the country en mass and take their money with them, to boot.
On your second point. It would catch 1/2 of the billions of dollars transacted weekly in Forex AUD (est. currently at about 7.6% (AUD portion) of $4 trillion (all currencies) or $AUD304, Billion per day. 1/2 of 10% of this equals 15.2 Billion per day.
Dumb & dumber.
DavidWh
My belated congratulations as well. Life does get better 🙂
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 8m
So Coalition committed to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP but can’t commit to NDIS and education.]
You know, I really can’t believe it!…these people in the opposition, WHEN YOU GET TO SEE THEM!, have to be the most gormless bunch of no-hopers EVER in the House…speaking of which we have the LOTO being the only one (that I can recall) in ALL HISTORY that actually ran from the House to fulfil a concocted proposition!….the ONLY ONE…EVER!…and there are people who are comfortable to vote for such a moron!….and then there is Bernardi, Mirabella, Abetz, Dutton, and Hunt..can’t leave HIM out!..Hunt from Dunt!…and the rest…I can’t bring myself to write their names down, it is too wearying to dwell on such innane stupidity…and there are people who would give their vote for them!
Truly, honestly, these LNP. schemers and conspirators…these miserly wankers, these dodging and weaving sychophants, these scrapings from the chipping-pile at the night-soil bucket depot…does anybody seriously believe they have the best interests of the nation at heart?
joe carli
Excellent post.
dareto tread
if you had spent less time talking about rudd
you could of found out
and done some useful stuff here
like policy
post 73
joe
SHOULD BE TWEETED AND SIGN BOARDED FOR THE STUPID COMPLACENT AUST
who are so dam selfish and up themselves
please have it tweeted
gauss
[On your first point “earn 1 Billion dollars”. It would actually have a negative impact on tax collected. People would leave the country en mass and take their money with them, to boot.]
Good riddance to them.
The Institute of Public Affairs have said that Abbott should emulate the most radical left wing PM in Aust history. Gough Whitlam.
They could not find a Liberal PM they believe he should emulate.
@margokingston1: OpenAustralia relaunches site to monitor election leaflets ahead of poll – http://t.co/5sAN2LLkI6 via @mumbrella
I expect a transcript will be posted on twitter of PMJG’s NDIS announcement today.
I will post here when I see one available.
Ten minutes to go
Dan Gulberry @ 77
Yikes, François Hollande is among us.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/29/president-francois-hollande-france-support
Gauss
Tax on the rich and recession are not connected.
If anything according to you conservatives letting debt get out of control causes recession. The basis of Austerity.
I find the lack of examination of Abbott’s policies as a deception by MSM and Liberal supporters.
Abbott will repeal the current carbon reduction legislation (hurray I hear). After repealing the legislation and removing the revenue it generates that funds the tax cuts and compensation he plans to retain those tax cuts etc. No explanation of where he will find the $4.5 billion in the budget to fund them. On top of that he will introduce Direct Action – cost $3.2 billion (and most likely a lot more as compensation is paid to industry). Total cost of of these policies – approx $16+bilion over 3 years. No explanation of where the money will come from in the budget.
Abbott will introduce his parental leave plan. Cost to business is more than the current carbon price. Anyone thinking this extra tax on business will not be passed on the consumers has their head in the sand. It was reported that banks will increase interest rates 0.5%. Woolworths are looking at a $40 million bill….we will pay for it.
Gauss
Yep good riddance to them.
If Big Gina wants to move to Singapore, let her go. Nationalise her mining assets and then float them onto the stock exchange.
Win/win for everyone.
Apparently PvO is not allowed to say he has any reservations about Abbott govt or he’s a traitor. Chris Kenny shows how “objective” he is.
[Chris Kenny @chriskkkenny 11m
.@vanOnselenP is a traitorous turd. By attacking Abbott he’s openly declared himself in the Gillard camp #auspol #youknowitmakesense ]
Guytaur, any suggested locations for watching PMJG this morning? I’ve got ABC 24 on but fear they’ll cross to interviewing themselves halfway through …
Gauss
[Beleaguered Socialist party leader defends 75% supertax on rich and appeals for calm as France teeters on brink of recession]
Spot the difference. Tory party leader David Cameron slashes taxes for those earning over a million pounds. The UK teeters on the brink of a triple dip recession.
Achmed
[Anyone thinking this extra tax on business will not be passed on the consumers has their head in the sand.]
There heads are firmly lodged in another place.
mauler
SMH sometimes has live coverage on their site.
http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/05/01/378172_tasmania-news.html
======================================================
so labor have fixed the the Tasmanian foresty
for all concerned
only labor gov, know how to talk to all people
so we have camps now
that weird
I thought junos
just did the news
thks guytaur
Sky is going to show the PM too they say
victoria@63
Correct.
Keep the agenda on policy, on good equitable policy – policy the tories and their maaates at the big end of town hate.
Force the tories into either supporting NDIS or not and get voters thinking about this and other issues.
lizzie
Looks like Mega George was right.
[Hey @chriskkenny ……….. Time to pull out that mantra again: ‘Leave Tony alone’]
mauler
Everyone will cover. It is a major announcement.
DavidWh
Congratulations!
Am just catching up 🙂
my say
Yes its great. Plus no danger to PMJG of having unions against her as Latham suffered.
Wow this announcement important to abc first time we have seen such a long shot of the podium while waiting for announcement to start.
PMJG on now