A relatively quiet week for national polling, with two new results available for the BludgerTrack update:
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, this time enlisting 3418 respondents from its combination of face-to-face, online and SMS polling, recorded a sharp uptick for the Coalition, up four on last week’s primary vote result to 48% with Labor down two to 30.5% and the Greens up half a point to 11%. That came out particularly bruisingly on Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred calculation, which showed the Coalition lead blowing out from 54.5-45.5 to 58-42. The result on 2010 election preferences was a milder 56.5-43.5, compared with 54-46 last time.
• Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
The impact of the new Morgan multi-mode series on the current BludgerTrack modelling is still very slight, although this will begin to change as more data becomes available for assessing its performance. For now the result on national voting intention is little changed on last week, bringing an end to three weeks of movement to Labor. The availability of new state-level data from Essential Research has sent Labor back two on the seat projection by weakening their position in New South Wales and Western Australia.
Two doses of preselection news:
• The Australian reports on four contenders to fill Barnaby Joyce’s Queensland Senate vacancy, which he will formally create at the start of the election campaign period to facilitate his run in New England. The candidates are Barry O’Sullivan, who has stood aside as the treasurer of the LNP while he considers whether to run; David Farley, Australian Agricultural Company managing director, who caused a brief stir last August when he suggested the Prime Minister was a “non-productive old cow” who might be put to use at an abattoir he was spruiking; Larry Anthony, famously well pedigreed former member the north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond; and Ray Brown, mayor of Western Downs. Mentioned elsewhere were Theresa Craig, a down-list candidate on the LNP Senate ticket; Susan McDonald, “daughter of former National Party president Don McDonald and a member of a family cattle dynasty”; Kerry Latter, chief executive of Mackay Canegrowers; and Julie Boyd, former mayor of Mackay. The preselection will be held on May 25, despite the view of some that the matter be left until after the election to give unsuccessful lower house candidates an opportunity to run. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported “senior members of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s team” were of a similar mind, although his public position is in line with that of the LNP state executive.
• Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor in New South Wales is “under growing pressure to intervene in the preselection of a candidate for the federal seat of Throsby”. Head office has apparently held off so far to give incumbent Stephen Jones a chance to shore up his local numbers, but the upper hand has remained with local Right forces associated with state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. This grouping now wants the seat for one of its own, something it has long been denied by a centrally enforced factional arrangement reserving Throsby for Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” faction. This time however, state secretary Sam Dastyari has been insistent in promising a local ballot. Andrew Crook of Crikey hears the local rebellion is opposed by more senior figures in the Right, who have been “hitting the phones to demand Hay forces back down or face brutal retaliation in the form of damaging media leaks that could cut short the Wollongong MP’s controversial career”. The putative challenger is John Rumble, a local nurse and son of former state MP Terry Rumble. Stephen Fitzpatrick of The Australian reported a fortnight ago that Rumble had not definitively secured the crucial support of Hay, who suggested a third candidate might emerge. Former state Kiama MP Matt Brown, who was sacked as a state government minister in 2008 over an affair that involved him dancing in his underwear in his parliamentary office, told The Australian he had been asked to stand by “branch members”.
Finally, the final results are in from the Western Australian election, with indicative Liberal-versus-Labor two-party preferred counts completed for seats where other parties or candidates made the final count in the formal preference distribution. This reveals that the final two-party preferred vote for the Liberals was 57.2%, a swing in their favour of 5.4%. It should be emphasised that the two-party preferred concept is complicated in Western Australia by the large number of highly competitive contests involving the Liberals and the Nationals, which raises the question of whether Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals counts should be used for the electorates in questions. The AEC’s practice has been to use the Nationals count where the party wins the seat, but the WAEC favours Labor-versus-Liberal counts which tend to be somewhat more favourable for Labor. Antony Green has used the Labor-versus-Nationals count for Pilbara to preserve continuity with the calculation for the 2008 election, at which no Labor-versus-Liberal count for Pilbara was conducted. The two-party preferred numbers cited below are entirely from Labor-versus-Liberal counts.
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION March 9, 2013 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY # % Change Seats Change Liberal 559,917 47.1% +8.7% 31 +7 Nationals 71,694 6.1% +1.2% 7 +3 Labor 392,470 33.1% -2.7% 21 -7 Greens 99,437 8.4% -3.5% Independent 34,467 2.9% -1.5% -3 Australian Christians 21,451 1.8% -0.8% Family First 7,039 0.6% -1.4% # % Change Formal 1,184,475 94.0% -0.7% Informal 75,577 6.0% +0.7% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.2% +2.7% Two-party preferred Liberal 677,231 57.2% +5.4% Labor 506,623 42.8% -5.4% LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL # % Change Seats Change Liberal 583,500 47.6% +8.0% 17 +1 Nationals 59,804 4.9% -0.4% 5 - Labor 398,260 32.5% -3.6% 11 - Greens 100,624 8.2% -2.9% 2 -2 Australian Christians 23,877 2.0% -0.3% Shooters & Fishers 21,765 1.8% 1 +1 Independent 20,633 1.7% +0.2% Family First 16,760 1.4% -1.1% # % Change Formal 1,225,223 97.2% 0.0% Informal 35,706 2.8% 0.0% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.3% +2.7%
spur212
I am not disputing what you are saying. What I am telling you is why that strategy will fail.
Attacking the disabled will not help the LNP and that is what the voters will see.
spur212@147
Strange way of saying so –
[ spur212@110
Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no.]
dave
Strange indeed
Victoria
I’m not suggesting they emulate the Coalition. I’m surveying the wreckage for people on here who can’t see the obvious
spur212@154
Most people here totally reject the following total nonsense –
[ spur212@110
Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no. ]
spur212
Your sentiments about LNP strategy were used to defend WorkChoices. Look at how that worked out.
LNP have to put up or shut up. No faking it anymore on this issue.
149 – victoria
Quite right
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-01/medicare-levy-increased-to-fund-ndis/4661660
[Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says a Coalition government would fund a disability insurance scheme “over the long run” by “building a strong economy” and said it would be best to fund it through general revenue.
Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey says it is not the right time to be imposing new taxes.
“The reason why we have grave concerns about having a levy is because business and consumer confidence is fragile and a new levy is not going to help business and consumer confidence,” Mr Hockey told Radio National this morning.]
So no levy for rich wives’ parental leave, Joe?
spur212
If the voting public prefer what the coalition are going to offer, that is what we are going to get.
That is what democracy is supposed to be about.
It has not been easy for this govt to implement their policies, especially in a minority govt. if the public dont like what they have got over the past six years, they are going to vote for the other mob. At this stage, it appears inevitable that the electorate are more than happy to give Abbott and his cronies a go. No one is in fantasy land. My point is that if Labor are going to offer exactly what the coalition are currently offering, what is the point of being concerned as to who will be in charge.
spur looks like Premier Newman disagrees with you
@Simon_Cullen: Qld Premier @theqldpremier has this morning reaffirmed his support for an NDIS levy: “It is the right thing to do”
My constant refrain….
[We have probably missed the boat, but better late than never:
Cut interest rates
Devalue the dollar
Reflate with the budget
Re-write the tax scales and abolish the concessions
This is all critically important.
It has to be done before labour demand starts to go off the rails and we see pressure in housing and credit.
There is just no time to lose.]
Dave
Because they’re ALP rusted ons who can’t differentiate the echo chamber from the electorate
[So no levy for rich wives’ parental leave, Joe?]
Better follow up question than any other that the LNP will be asked on the subject.
Guytaur
I said Newman would declare victory @139. That’s what he’s done
Guytaur
WorkChoices was an entirely different scenario. The ALP controlled the game back then
spur212
Well bully for him. No one is fooled. We know that Labor not Newman brought in levy for disabled.
spur212@162
[ spur212@110
Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no. ]
@110 above was a utter grub of a comment and you know it.
Utterly shameful.
FFS campbell has more grace – on this occasion anyway.
spur212
What are you trying to say exactly?
My take on your comments is that you support Labor and you support the NDIS but you have given up all hope of a Labor victory so you can see the point in doing anything between now and the election.
I am unhappy too about the state of the polls and I know where to sheet home most of the blame but that is no excuse for inaction. In fact it makes implementing good social policy imperative.
spur212
You are wrong. As you will see the LNP will change real quick. They know they have to put up or shut up.
Abbott knows what it is like to be in the position of attacking someone who is disabled thanks to Bernie Banton. He will not want that image to be front and centre during an election campaign.
Dave
@110 was what’s happening in voter land. Not my personal reaction to the policy
Big tick from me on the NDIS levy. Little Harry born 8lb 5onces. Will be scarce for a few days babysitting a 2 year old. Precious.
Correction to my 168
[… so you can’t see the point in doing anything …]
[Big tick from me on the NDIS levy]
Pity you’ll vote for a party that won’t support it in legislation.
spur212
Labor know the chances of victory come September are slim. You are suggesting they play the coalition shell game, which of course, Labor would lose in a cantor. They are setting out their vision for the future of this country, and if the electorate reject it, so be it. We get what we deserve
See spur PM’s office thinks differently to you
@PMOPressOffice: “Qld supports Medicare hike to fund NDIS” Read: http://t.co/q7euenGkq8 #auspol #DisabilityCare
davidwh
Fantastic. Enjoy
Tom Hawkins
There are certain people on here that think today is “game changing, election winning” etc for the ALP. I’m trying to slap them out of it
spur212
Who has said it is an election winning announcement?
spur212@170
@110 was about NDIS and was totally unacceptable.
You have no idea what voters think about NDIS. You have no idea what their reaction will be about the funding announcement made this morning.
This conversation has not been about polling it has been about NDIS and the comments you made are dispictable.
First O’Farrell signs up for Gonski, now Newman comes out in support of the levy for NDIS. The LNP Premiers are forcing Abbotts hand.
Not so unified as they would have us think.
Dave
Voters overwhelmingly support the NDIS. What you don’t seem to get is the Coalition are honing in on the delivery of the policy and how it links in to everything else in relation to the perceived uncertainty around the budget and all the other policies associated with it
spur212
The govt have laid their cards on the table. Abbott needs to do the same. The electorate can then decide. Simple really
Achmed@180
I’d like to see how Hockey explains his lack of support for NDIS levy but supports the 1.5% levy on business to pay for parental leave.
He will end up looking like a pretzel as he twists and turns
spur212@181
@110 is really going to haunt you –
[
spur212@110
Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no. ]
If you were smart you would withdraw that dumb comment.
Dave
I said Newman would declare victory. That’s what he did! The PM “backed down” to his idea
Deve
If you want to take comments out of context, you’re no better than the Coalition.
[There are certain people on here that think today is “game changing, election winning” ]
I can’t see anyone here calling it “game changing” or “election winning”
I’ve even see a couple of conservative voters here calling it good policy (though they’ll vote for a party that will never legislate to introduce it ahead of an Executive Level maternity leave policy or tax cuts across the board)
The coalition can dump Goneski’s and use the money to pay for NDIS.
Labor seem to want to have their cake and eat it too by having 2 unfunded, hugely costly policies.
Seeing Goneski’s isn’t real reform and is just a love-thing of the Teachers Union which only objective is to reward incompetent state governments and punish teacher performance it must be dumped by a Coalition government.
[Pity you’ll vote for a party that won’t support it in legislation.]
Tom,
We need a Labor Government to introduce such a policy(aka Medicare) but we need a Coalition Government to pay for it.
Gillard has NO RIGHT, NONE, to claim she is implementing this policy because she can’t pay for the f’ing thing.
She can’t even pay for her current policies, how dare she introduce new ones?
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/1/politics/fiscal-extremists-will-hurt-economy
in danger of confusing the parlous state of the federal budget with the state of the economy more generally – if both are assumed to be falling apart, the nation as a whole will make the wrong investment decisions.
In the public sector, the big risk is that two reforms that are already long overdue will be shelved indefinitely – the DisabilityCare package and the Gonski school funding boost.
Many commentators are saying that while we all want these reforms, for reasons of social justice, if there’s no money to pay for them, they’ll just have to wait. That sounds reasonable, until the rationales of the reforms are revisited. They are economic reforms, not just guilt-driven social justice crusades.
Boosting workforce participation by delivering better disability services is a key part of DisabilityCare. So too is reducing future public costs through early intervention programs – which are all the more important as Australia’s demographic profile slowly skews towards old-age.
Likewise the Gonski reforms, which aim to deliver a generation of globally competitive students to the tertiary or TAFE systems, or directly into an up-skilling workforce.
Read more: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/5/1/politics/fiscal-extremists-will-hurt-economy#ixzz2S02kVPfk
Dave
I’ll clarify @110 seeing as it appears it’s made you so upset.
I was referring to the uncertainty around the budget and how that plays into deep perceptions of fear, uncertainty, annoyance and anger. What the Coalition do with announcements like today’s levy is link it to the system they’ve already established. They’ll chop off the disability services bit and focus on the “tax”, “trust”, “delivery” part of the equation which is what they do on the carbon price, the mining tax, asylum seekers, Gonski, health reform and everything else.
All the ALP have done is play right into it. Maybe it’s because they think there’s nothing more to lose. Maybe it’s because they think it will have electoral benefit. There could be all kinds of reasons. All I’m trying to do is analyse the situation and snap certain people out of thinking this is a game changer
davidwh
Congratulations to you and the family, especially the proud parents. Enjoy the baby-sitting.
spur212@187
So you refuse to withdraw the utter grub comments –
[ Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no. ]
Thats context!
howard left a huge
debt
but STILL FOUND THE MONEY TO SEND YOUNG MEN TO\\
IRAQ
TO LOOK for weapons of mass destruction, there still looking
===========================================================
SEAN ITS ME..i u I a talking to,
do you have family,
how old are you.
have you had your blood pressure take lately
is it high
is it low,
a lot of people are a stroke waiting to happen
so at any time a stroke could hit,,,, NO money
your wife I presmume you have one or if your female
a hubby.
or a partner,
what ever,
no money partner gives up work to look after you
remember you may of had the stroke/
so on to disability pension you all go
with ndis,, your partner will be able to work
LOOK I DO0NT MIND PAYING A BIT MORE ON THE LEVY
TO HELP STROKE VICTIMS
or car accident vitims,
and then there is the darling children born wth disabilities.
and your moaning about money
you would have none if you had a stroke
sorry to be blunt about this
but some people in the country need a dam wake up call
this society is turning in to torey speek
we are not a community” wtte
blahalblh
we are just one person,
well if thqts the aust, you want ,,,
enjoy your lonliness and isolation
ACHMED 184
He will end up looking like a pretzel as he twists and turns
Do you mind if I edit your comment ie putting Spur212 in as well as Hockey? :devil:
I see the head concern troll is back
my time is to valuable to bother
coffee time
spur212@192
You are digging deeper with the highlighted section above.
NDIS introduced because Labor think they have nothing more to lose you say, and –
[ Labor isn’t making anyone proud today except the people who would vote Labor regardless of what they do. Scared, uncertain, annoyed, angry, yes. Proud, no. ]
That clarifies your support for NDIS.
I would like to congratulate the great people
that stay on this
blog and mix it with them
you do a mighty job, for labor,
thank goodness for you all
@Tom/143
We are not paying these fools for not doing nothing right?