A relatively quiet week for national polling, with two new results available for the BludgerTrack update:
• The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, this time enlisting 3418 respondents from its combination of face-to-face, online and SMS polling, recorded a sharp uptick for the Coalition, up four on last week’s primary vote result to 48% with Labor down two to 30.5% and the Greens up half a point to 11%. That came out particularly bruisingly on Morgan’s headline respondent-allocated two-party preferred calculation, which showed the Coalition lead blowing out from 54.5-45.5 to 58-42. The result on 2010 election preferences was a milder 56.5-43.5, compared with 54-46 last time.
• Essential Research is perfectly unchanged for the second week in a row, with Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with the Coalition lead at 55-45. It finds a seven point drop since last June in respondents who think the economy is heading in the right direction, to 36%, and has 38% expecting the budget to be bad for them personally against 12% good and 38% neutral. Respondents were also asked about preferred revenue-raising measures, with “higher taxes for corporations” towering above the pack on 64%. Reducing tax breaks for higher income earners was net positive (45% approve, 38% disapprove), but reductions in the baby bonus and family tax and any spending cuts were rated negatively. It was also found that 45% believed population growth too fast, 37% about right and only 5% too slow.
The impact of the new Morgan multi-mode series on the current BludgerTrack modelling is still very slight, although this will begin to change as more data becomes available for assessing its performance. For now the result on national voting intention is little changed on last week, bringing an end to three weeks of movement to Labor. The availability of new state-level data from Essential Research has sent Labor back two on the seat projection by weakening their position in New South Wales and Western Australia.
Two doses of preselection news:
• The Australian reports on four contenders to fill Barnaby Joyce’s Queensland Senate vacancy, which he will formally create at the start of the election campaign period to facilitate his run in New England. The candidates are Barry O’Sullivan, who has stood aside as the treasurer of the LNP while he considers whether to run; David Farley, Australian Agricultural Company managing director, who caused a brief stir last August when he suggested the Prime Minister was a “non-productive old cow” who might be put to use at an abattoir he was spruiking; Larry Anthony, famously well pedigreed former member the north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond; and Ray Brown, mayor of Western Downs. Mentioned elsewhere were Theresa Craig, a down-list candidate on the LNP Senate ticket; Susan McDonald, “daughter of former National Party president Don McDonald and a member of a family cattle dynasty”; Kerry Latter, chief executive of Mackay Canegrowers; and Julie Boyd, former mayor of Mackay. The preselection will be held on May 25, despite the view of some that the matter be left until after the election to give unsuccessful lower house candidates an opportunity to run. Steven Scott of the Courier-Mail reported “senior members of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s team” were of a similar mind, although his public position is in line with that of the LNP state executive.
• Anna Patty of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Labor in New South Wales is “under growing pressure to intervene in the preselection of a candidate for the federal seat of Throsby”. Head office has apparently held off so far to give incumbent Stephen Jones a chance to shore up his local numbers, but the upper hand has remained with local Right forces associated with state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay. This grouping now wants the seat for one of its own, something it has long been denied by a centrally enforced factional arrangement reserving Throsby for Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” faction. This time however, state secretary Sam Dastyari has been insistent in promising a local ballot. Andrew Crook of Crikey hears the local rebellion is opposed by more senior figures in the Right, who have been “hitting the phones to demand Hay forces back down or face brutal retaliation in the form of damaging media leaks that could cut short the Wollongong MP’s controversial career”. The putative challenger is John Rumble, a local nurse and son of former state MP Terry Rumble. Stephen Fitzpatrick of The Australian reported a fortnight ago that Rumble had not definitively secured the crucial support of Hay, who suggested a third candidate might emerge. Former state Kiama MP Matt Brown, who was sacked as a state government minister in 2008 over an affair that involved him dancing in his underwear in his parliamentary office, told The Australian he had been asked to stand by “branch members”.
Finally, the final results are in from the Western Australian election, with indicative Liberal-versus-Labor two-party preferred counts completed for seats where other parties or candidates made the final count in the formal preference distribution. This reveals that the final two-party preferred vote for the Liberals was 57.2%, a swing in their favour of 5.4%. It should be emphasised that the two-party preferred concept is complicated in Western Australia by the large number of highly competitive contests involving the Liberals and the Nationals, which raises the question of whether Labor-versus-Liberal or Labor-versus-Nationals counts should be used for the electorates in questions. The AEC’s practice has been to use the Nationals count where the party wins the seat, but the WAEC favours Labor-versus-Liberal counts which tend to be somewhat more favourable for Labor. Antony Green has used the Labor-versus-Nationals count for Pilbara to preserve continuity with the calculation for the 2008 election, at which no Labor-versus-Liberal count for Pilbara was conducted. The two-party preferred numbers cited below are entirely from Labor-versus-Liberal counts.
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION March 9, 2013 LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY # % Change Seats Change Liberal 559,917 47.1% +8.7% 31 +7 Nationals 71,694 6.1% +1.2% 7 +3 Labor 392,470 33.1% -2.7% 21 -7 Greens 99,437 8.4% -3.5% Independent 34,467 2.9% -1.5% -3 Australian Christians 21,451 1.8% -0.8% Family First 7,039 0.6% -1.4% # % Change Formal 1,184,475 94.0% -0.7% Informal 75,577 6.0% +0.7% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.2% +2.7% Two-party preferred Liberal 677,231 57.2% +5.4% Labor 506,623 42.8% -5.4% LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL # % Change Seats Change Liberal 583,500 47.6% +8.0% 17 +1 Nationals 59,804 4.9% -0.4% 5 - Labor 398,260 32.5% -3.6% 11 - Greens 100,624 8.2% -2.9% 2 -2 Australian Christians 23,877 2.0% -0.3% Shooters & Fishers 21,765 1.8% 1 +1 Independent 20,633 1.7% +0.2% Family First 16,760 1.4% -1.1% # % Change Formal 1,225,223 97.2% 0.0% Informal 35,706 2.8% 0.0% Enrolment/Turnout 1,412,533 89.3% +2.7%
Joe O’Brien @joeobrien24 13m
AMA urges Coalition to look at Levy plan for NDIS “very seriously”
davidwh
Congrats on the new rug rat, enjoy being grandad. 🙂
SPURR
NONE OF us are immune to car accidents stroke
just becauce you are a liberal
doesn’t mean you are immune to things.
if you never had to help out with a person with a disability
I suggest you ring one of the care houses and ask to do a days volunteering
see how you think then.
I dare u to do it
bet u dont
The LNP will oppose everything simply for the sake of opposition – because they see the chance for political gains simply from frustrating Labor. This is the free ride in Australian politics. Doing nothing creates windfall political gains. They will always put tactical advantage before the better interests of the country. No wonder I despise them so completely!!!
congratulations davidwh!
[The consensus view in the policy-making bureaucracy is just wrong. It is time the Government exercised its responsibilities and changed the settings in this economy. There is absolutely no time to lose, if, in fact there is any time left at all.]
briefly
I wouldn’t be worried. I’m sure Sophie Mirabella, the appropriate shadow, will get everything good again!
spur
Oh, so you assumed that Labor supporters were going to say it was a vote winning policy (rather than what they were saying, that it was a good one) and so you decided to get in first?
Weird logic.
BK, I worry about you and Sophie.
The Medicare Levy would be palatable to Australians if Labor posted a budget surplus, now it just looks like a desperate money grab.
Lets not forget what they said last budget:
http://www.budget.gov.au/2012-13/content/at_a_glance/html/at_a_glance.htm
[We are returning the budget to surplus while ensuring families and small businesses share in the benefits of the resources boom.
The Government is returning the budget to surplus on time and as promised.]
Utter and Complete BS.
Can’t afford Goneskis. Can’t afford NDIS. Can’t afford their current budget.
It’s time for a change…
So let me get this straight- they have put single parents on newstart $250 a week and now they want to give disabled people on $370 per week thousands extra per year funding by taxpayers completely.
The question is not can we afford the NDIS, it is can we afford not to introduce it.
Congrats davidwh 🙂
[The LNP will oppose everything simply for the sake of opposition – because they see the chance for political gains simply from frustrating Labor. ]
That pretty much sums up Abbott’s time as LOTO……completely.
Cant really see what the fuss is about an increase in the medicare levy. It was obvious as a baboons bum ever since the NDIS was announced that this was likely at some point, and in fact is a logical way to fund it.
Going to be interesting around budget time to see if the MSM finally try and pin the Fibs down on numbers. All the fluff from JoHo about funding things from savings is just that until he tells us what and how much those savings are.
LoL, :monkey: has finally come out to his organ grinders tune on penalty rates as well. 🙂
Sean, the whole policy-making mob have missed the key turning points in this economy (again). The picture has changed, like it or not. So the response has to change as well. Your mob will trash the budget, waste the labour market and implode the housing market. You had better wake up. The make-believe of the past few years has expired.
Sean Tisme
You are foaming at the mouth. Calm down and present a rational argument and you might make some progress … you might also learn something in the process.
spur
[@110 was what’s happening in voter land. Not my personal reaction to the policy]
No, it wasn’t.
People here were saying they were proud about the policy (no cries of ‘aha, victory is ours!” just simple expressions that they were pleased about something the government was doing…)
Your comment was that no one should be proud about it.
Now, you could have said “Yes, it’s a great policy, but alas, I do not think it is a vote winner because…’
but you didn’t.
Of course, when you were accused of being spiteful, you started pretending you’d written something else entirely.
[It’s time for a change…]
Wot, to the economic illiteratii that infest the Coalition get a go?
You really have to get your head around one simple fact Sean and then evaluate the Libs and their utterances in light of that.
The Govt runs a country inhabited by people, not an Economy inhabited by interests.
Or you could do slogans, but Tabitha was better than you at that. 🙂
imacca, I have my fingers crossed for a radical budget…for one that says to the nation: “Wake up, the boom is over. We have to change and we’re starting right now.”
spur
[All I’m trying to do is analyse the situation and snap certain people out of thinking this is a game changer]
Right. Name the ‘certain people’ who have said here that the NDIS was a game changer.
No one did. They just said it was good policy, one that they were proud to see Labor introduce.
You then said they had nothing to be proud of.
Apparently, in spurland, good policy is only good policy if it wins votes.
Really, a shameful attitude.
Sean Tisme wrote:
[Labor seem to want to have their cake and eat it too by having 2 unfunded, hugely costly policies.]
He is someone who knows (or thinks he knows) the cost of everything, and the value of nothing.
Zoomster, Dave
If you want to see everything as a nail and ascribe reactions to me, that’s your business. Reminds me of Coalition’s voters reactions to Gillard. Doesn’t matter what she says, she’s guilty for opening her mouth
Keiran Gilbert on Sky has shown with his tweets how the LNP message gets spread by him
Check this twitter conversation about ‘economic mismanagement’
[ Annie O’Rourke @89oEast 29m
@Kieran_Gilbert @alexhart7 @lachlanfharris I don’t see economic mismanagement I see low unemployment & inflation, triple a credit ratings
Retweeted by Geoff Pearson
View conversation]
Zoomster
Guytaur
Those who say they believe in the NDIS plan but “not now” are liars and hypocrites.
This should have been introduced decades ago. Both sides of politics have had ample opportunities to do so but have pandered to key constituencies instead.
Slash middle class welfare and get on with it!
Anyone looking for a good explanation of the basics of the NDIS can watch this presentation by Bruce Bonyhady who did a lot to make it all happen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zM1ZZdahtSI&playnext=1&list=PLw2NfpuVYYQn2B_vgbKJ4PVGLBXqAwGpY
spur
no, I’m quoting you exactly.
I’ve asked you to name the people who you think needed slapping down because they were saying the NDIS would change votes.
Silence.
Because no one had.
And you’re free to explain why a policy is ‘nothing to be proud of’ simply because you don’t think it’s a vote changer.
You can’t – which suggests that the only explanation is that you only think policies are good if they change votes.
Sean Tiche…: “Can’t afford Goneskis. Can’t afford NDIS. Can’t afford their current budget.”
Well, if the opp’n doesn’t intend to put all these policies into place, just WHAT ARE they going to be doing all that time in office?….I say if they are going to only do a quarter of the work, they should only get a quarter of their pay!….CUT THE LIBERAL”S WAGES!…CUT THEM NOW!
Just read some of Sean Tisme outbursts …. shudder
You think he would welcome a funded NDIS.
Self Abuse induced RSI would probably qualify as a permanent disability
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/full-rp-data-april-house-price-release/
[RP Data today officially released its dwelling values results for April, which registered a -0.5% decline at the 8-city levels, with all capitals, except Adelaide and Darwin, recording monthly falls. It was the first monthly decline in values since December 2012. While the monthly results were weak, the RP Data-Rismark home values index has recorded annual gains across all capitals, except Hobart]
The trend has been for modest increases in property, tagging along with inflation. The fall in April prices is quite marked, especially in Perth (down 2.5%), reflecting the approaching peak in the resource construction boom.
This is more data supporting my by-now heavily-laboured thesis: we are at a turning point in the economy and the budget needs to be framed around supporting incomes and jobs!!!
Would think SeanTisme time is almost at an end just like Natalie and Mattie have vanished, which of the “extended” family will appear next I wonder :devil:
The voters have a choice on Sept 14. Vote for reforms or for the slogan bogan. If the majority choose rhe slogan bogan, so be it. I will be mightly pissed off, but that is how our sysyem works.
System
[He is someone who knows (or thinks he knows) the cost of everything, and the value of nothing.]
Labor can’t afford it.
I know this. You know this. It’s all just Labor spin… if they can’t fund it, how can they introduce it?
David Etteridge today
[‘Today, The Hon Mark Dreyfus QC MP, Attorney General, will receive my formal request to conduct a full investigation into Mr Abbott’s past behaviour.’]
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2013/05/01/ettridgeabbott/
Since they’re likely going to lose, the ALP should do everyone a favour and get rid of these obscene free kicks for the wealthy. Saul Eslake says:
[I have a list of what I regard as the worst tax decisions of the last 20 years. One is the halving of the headline rate of capital gains tax [in 1999] that made negative gearing attractive.”
”The others are the abandonment of indexation of petrol excise, the senior Australian tax offset – the measure that says if you are over 65 you pay less tax on a given amount of income than if you are under 65 – and the abolition of income tax on super fund earnings paid to people over 60.”
”They would be my contenders for the dumbest tax decisions of the last 20 years. Frankly, I can’t choose between them.]
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/negative-geared-investors-lose-13-billion-20130430-2irf3.html
Alan Jones did his best for his little buddy Tones this morning by denouncing the Disability Care levy. Just three years ago he was demanding one.
[I’ll talk to the people of Australia and say this is the predicament of people with disabilities; this is the problem faced by carers. We’ll add a 0.2 or a 0.3 to the Medicare levy which everybody pays and suddenly we’ll have an insurance scheme. And that insurance scheme could help build appropriate accommodation, it would guarantee support, it would guarantee community participation in services, it would guarantee support to prepare for and maintain employment, it would guarantee the provision of therapy and equipment. Is this so hard…]
http://www.nds.org.au/news/article/721
I’m also told Jones tried to avoid debate this morning by taking up up the first 20 of the 30 minutes he allocates to ‘talk back’ with advertising.
[Today, The Hon Mark Dreyfus QC MP, Attorney General, will receive my formal request to conduct a full investigation into Mr Abbott’s past behaviour.]
Ettridge is going to ask that federal money be spent to repeat an exercise undertaken by the CMC ten years ago while he seeks $1.5 million.
Dreyfus should call a press conference and tell Ettridge to piss off.
Saul Eslake is absolutely right. Labor should undo all the egregious rip-offs and distortions the LNP built into the system and then go to the election to defend them. The tide of economic events has changed in the last few months and is gathering momentum. We really need to act and act now. Labor can enact reforms now while they have the chance. They may never get a better one.
Say!..where are those no-account liberals?…have they all gone awol?…are they practicing the Abbott “Um”, or are they just plain bone idle..as usual!
Bloody hell!..what the hell are we paying these bums for?…C’mon…get out there you lazy shits!..we want to see some action, the people on newstart have to work harder than you mob of bludgers!…Where’s Mesma?..practicing in front of the mirror again I suppose! And Turn-‘n-turn again-bull?….on the roof with his carrier pigeons..scribbling anonymous notes..: “Dear Tony..get F*cked!”…and Sophie M.?…awh!..no!..don’t worry, we all know where SHE is!
Abbott’s saying exactly what I said he would.
They’ll hone in on “delivery” as it fits in with everything they’re saying about the budget. It only wins because the ALP are focused on “processes”
If you understand your opponent, you’re in a much better position to beat them. It would be nice if some on here “got” this instead of doing the megaphone thing
Abbott double daring Gillard to introduce NDIS legislation… Gillard will be too gutless.
Loving it!
Abbott slithering around in the long grass again….
[233
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, May 1, 2013 at 12:11 pm | Permalink
He is someone who knows (or thinks he knows) the cost of everything, and the value of nothing.
Labor can’t afford it.
I know this. You know this. It’s all just Labor spin… if they can’t fund it, how can they introduce it?]
What the country can’t afford is another useless, comatose LNP so-called Government.
why not make the medicare levy NDIS voluntary ( like insurance is). i doubt it would be 10% of population
leone Poor old Alan. He’s in a predicament today. How can he blast this bad Govt. while there’s evidence he supported what it’s now promoting. Such a strange fella.
I think his little chats with Richo start tonight. Pity that we’ll be watching Micallef instead.
Children are going back behind razor wire, hooray!
Labor values ftw
BH and Leone just put that about Alan Jones on Twitter, some retweets starting to come in
Well there you go… Abbott has called on Gillard to introduce the legislation into Parliament.
Ball, Court, Labor
[Abbott double daring Gillard to introduce NDIS legislation….]
Abbott knows that she would get it through this Parliament and that would suit him. It would save him having to face the funding issue. He’d not be upsetting his selfish media sycophants who would have a ‘great big new tax’ to beat up on.
Sean
Labor has just shown how it can be afforded.