Nielsen 57-43, Galaxy 54-46

Nielsen has published its first poll since slightly before last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and Galaxy its first since slightly after.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Nielsen has come in at 57-43 to the Coalition, up from 56-44 last month. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 29%, the Coalition is up two to 49% and the Greens are up two to 12%. The lead Tony Abbott opened up as preferred minister in the last poll has widened slightly, from 49-43 to 50-42. His personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approve and 53% disapprove, with Gillard down one to 37% and up one to 59%. Gillard has however gained on Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, up four to 35% with Rudd down five to 57%. Full tables including state and age breakdowns here. Nielsen also finds 52% opposing the proposed tax on high-earning superannuation accounts against 45% in support, and has head-to-head leader attribute ratings that generally have the two leaders fairly close together, with the notable exception of “has confidence of party”.

We also had in this morning’s News Limited tabloids a Galaxy poll which had the Coalition lead at 54-46, compared with 55-45 in the last such poll which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Labor’s leadership crisis three weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor was up a point to 33%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens steady on 12%. The poll also found 45% saying they would more trust Tony Abbott on superannuation policy than Julia Gillard, against 34% vice-versa; 57% supporting cuts in “middle class welfare” to fund schools and the National Disability Insurance Scheme against 36% opposed; and 46% saying Gillard better represented “blue-collar workers” against 39% for Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor up two points to 34%, the Coalition down one to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard down two on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 56%, with Tony Abbott steady on 37% and up one to 52%. Abbott leads on preferred prime minister for the first time since September, moving from 39-39 to 39-37. The government’s superannuation policy gets a similar result to Nielsen’s, with 40% supportive and 46% opposed. Labor’s broadband policy however is much preferred to the Coalition’s, by 54% to 23%. There are also questions gauging awareness of Julian Assange and what contribution he could make to parliament (32% broadly positive, 50% broadly negative).

UPDATE 2: The weekly Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, whose bouncy sample size is back up to 3835 after falling below 3000 a fortnight ago, is largely unchanged on last week, with both parties up a point on the primary vote (Labor to 32% and the Coalition to 47.5%) and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. Labor has narrowed the gap from 56.5-43.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but previous election preferences are steady at 56-44. The polling glut will continue in an hour or so when Channel Seven goes to air with ReachTEL’s first ever national poll (UPDATE 3): Or rather, not. My guess is that Seven’s chosen to hold off on it for another night.

UPDATE 3: Channel Seven has now come good with the ReachTEL result, which has the Coalition leading 57-43 from primary votes of 31% for Labor and 50% for the Coalition. Tony Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 62-38 among men and 52-48 among women. The government’s superannuation policy is opposed by 43% and supported by 33%. Forty-six per cent support the National Broadband Network against 40% for the Coalition’s broadband policy. The sample on the poll was 1924. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,610 comments on “Nielsen 57-43, Galaxy 54-46”

Comments Page 31 of 33
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  1. Mick77…I don’t think it will be long before someone takes the piss out of you…fro someone who is really quite dumb, you’re getting a bit too smart-arse.

  2. Fess@1493: but Crean didn’t let slip the university cuts did he?

    Perhaps Gillard’s brains trust feared that these cuts were going to be leaked by a hostile insider. And perhaps the unhelpful discussion on the super changes – which I had assumed had been deliberately floated by Swan and Shorten – was also the result of hostile leaking.

    This would be consistent with what I have heard about a significant tightening of information security in Canberra since Xmas. Of course, the two members of the Ministry who I have heard accused of being leakers resigned after the Ruddless coup. And perhaps one of them had already seen something about the super proposals (the bigger planned ones that never saw the light of day) and this might be how these became public. But I would have thought the education cuts would have been more recent in origin. So there might be a hostile leaker somewhere inside the tent. But I’m only speculating.

  3. meanwhile in Japan, the benefits of fiber to the home (FTTH) are unfolding. And we will have Turnbull’s Jalopy.

    with FTTH, there is no theoretical limit to how fast the connections may become in the future (speed of light the only constraint). Why does this matter? Bandwith is following Moore’s law.

    [IDG News Service – A Sony-backed ISP in Japan has launched a 2Gbps Internet service, which it said is the world’s fastest for home use.

    So-net Entertainment began offering its “Nuro” fiber-based service on Monday to homes, apartments, and small businesses in Tokyo and six surrounding prefectures. Nuro will cost AY=4,980 ($51) per month on a two-year contract, plus a AY=52,500 installation fee that it is currently offering for free for those that apply online. The upload speed is 1Gbps.

    The company said the service includes rental of an ONU (optical network unit) designed to handle the high speeds. ONU devices are commonly used in homes and business to convert fiber to broadband Internet. Individual users of the service are unlikely to see 2Gbps speeds on their devices, as it exceeds the capacity of most consumer network adaptors.

    The Japanese government has strongly backed fiber connections to private residences, and the country is now among the world leaders. About 25% of Japanese households are currently connected, the second-highest rate in the world, according to data from regional FTTH, or Fibre to the Home, organizations. The UAE is the highest at over 70%.

    Much of Japan’s population in Tokyo and other cities lives in tightly packed apartments, which has made it easier to roll out fiber services. Services offering 1Gbps are now common, with providers slashing prices and offering hundreds of dollars in discounts to draw subscribers. As in other countries, the rollout has been much lower in lower-populated rural areas.

    So-net said its service uses the GPON, or Gigabit-capable Passive Optics Networks, standard, which supports up to 2.488 Gbps downstream.]

  4. Joe carli@1501: It’s clearly going to be a long time before you stop making personal attacks on other posters and decide to post some coherent ideas on the issues of the day.

    That said, yesterday you seemed – in and among your personal attacks on me (which I should tell you are a complete waste of time: water off a duck’s back, etc) – to be trying to say something about your views on whether Caucus or the Party membership should elect the leader. But I’m sorry to say it didn’t make any sense.

    But do keep trying.

  5. confessions@1464


    Thanks for the questions.

    From what you’ve heard about the National Broadband Network, generally speaking do you prefer Labor’s more expensive & faster solution, or the Coalition’s less expensive & slower alternative?

    They were able to qualify the NBN question with a ‘from what you’ve heard’ lead in. Should’ve done the same with the question about superannuation reforms.

    It’s not even certain that the Coalition’s plan will be cheaper. Wait, does this count as real push polling, then?

  6. [An administrative hearing is set to be held in the Supreme Court in Brisbane next month.

    “This matter is all about the behaviour of a gentleman who wants to be the next prime minister of Australia,” Mr Ettridge said.

    “He is a fellow who has shown no respect at all for the laws of Australia or the laws of Queensland.

    “He showed no respect the rights that were enshrined in electoral law for the democratic process of Queensland.”

    Mr Abbott’s office has confirmed he has received the papers.]

  7. meher when you started posting

    I thought you where labor

    I truly doubt my thoughts now

    any way up to you

    who cares really

  8. Ettridge’s case against, and public attacks on, Abbott are quite interesting.

    But Ettridge is a total shocker: infinitely worse even than Abbott. So what am I supposed to think?

  9. my say@1509. I’m pretty pro-Labor these days: at the Federal and the State level. I’m no troll: I just post what I think. Most right-wingers I know think I’m left -wing and most left-wingers I know think I’m right-wing.

    I enjoy your online company, even though I don’t think we’d agree on a lot of things: forest policy and religion (I’m a staunch atheist) are two that would come to mind.

  10. [1496
    meher baba

    They seem to me to be desperately in need of a strategy. But embattled people often have difficulty in thinking things through clearly. I feel really sorry for them and fear that the whole Ruddstoration business has out them in a diabolical position.]

    In retrospect, I think they have been without a sound political and economic strategy for governing since well before the 2007 election. It was a dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd as LOTO in the first place.

  11. meher baba:

    Labor’s real media management strategy fail results almost entirely from the failed strategies and commitment to media love ins of THLV and his time as PM.

    What we are seeing today is the utter failure of Cabinet govt, stemming from THLV time, and continuing owing to his and his spear carriers’ presence at the Cabinet table.

  12. briefly:


    I see parts of Perth are on a thunderstorm warning from about 2pm tomorrow.

    Hope you guys get some rain out of it.

  13. I turned up at our investment super property today (central Hobart)to get it ready for some tenants to find trench diggers cutting through the pavement in readiness for the fibre optic cable!!! which will be in by June.

    Suck eggs Tony! At least one of my two houses will be hooked up. Dickhead.

  14. Constantly intrigued by the way young people are learning from computer games.

    Watching a TV show set in Renaissance Italy tonight, said to my son “Trouble is, it assumes you know who people like the Sforzas were…”

    And he did. Because apparently one of the games he plays on line is set in Renaissance Italy…

  15. The budgetary problems that Labor now have can be traced to mistakes made both before the 2007 election and after Labor won office, and then later to the failure to properly identify the reasons for and consequences of the GFC.

    Labor should have instituted some far-reaching reforms of the economy in 2008. They failed to think this through and take appropriate action, and, as a result, having wasted the last few years of prosperity, now have structural economic and budgetary problems that present huge barriers to Labor’s social policy agenda.

    Labor had the opportunity to act on the economy, on taxation, on Climate Change, on Super…and just lost their nerve or their way. It has been a shambles ever since.

  16. Briefly@1514. I don’t really think they had much choice but to elect Rudd at thr time. Beazley was past his use by date and Gillard wasn’t ready. Rudd had no doubts about his suitability for the role and, let’s face it, he was terrific right up until the day he became PM (when the signs of impending disaster were there for all to see in his bizarre, egocentric victory speech).

    What should have happened was that Rudd should never have been groomed for the leadership by Bruce Hawker and others. Rudd was never suitable Prime Ministerial material and they knew it.

    I reckon if, back in 2003, Beazley rather than Latham (another who was not suitsble PM material) had replaced Crean has leader, he probably would have won in 2004. Latham would have been a superb attack dog Treasurer in that government and Rudd would have been a mediocre Foreign Minister.

    But, alas, it all turned out wrong.

  17. Meher…I only take the piss out on those right-wingers who are so far up they’re own arse they fail to read anyone else’s posts except those they feel they have the upper hand over…As for you and that diluted bogan ; Mick77, I would suggest you get a bit of educated nous under your belt BEFORE you pontificate on what to you is a totally unknown quantity.
    Listening to yourself and sfb. give advice is like sitting through a Tony and Malcolm policy presentation.

  18. Shellbell #1495 I heard the interview with Etteridge and it sure sounded like a civil claim disguised as a criminal action to get around the statute of limitations. Also sounds like a fair amount of revenge as the motive.

    It just felt more political than legal so I’m not getting my hopes up that Abbott will be forced to stand down anytime soon.

  19. Joe@1523. Nope, nothing but abuse against other posters in this one either. You’ll need to do better: I’ll help you. Let’s pick a topic for you. What do you think about the education package: is it a good idea to fund Gonski reforms partly by taking away funding from unis?

    I will eagerly await your considered views.

  20. Terrorism is setting off bombs amongst innocent people’s so it doesn’t matter much where you were born, what ethnic group you come from or which religion you hide behind.

  21. DWH

    [civil claim disguised as a criminal action to get around the statute of limitations]

    It will fall over at the first hurdle if that is what it is.

  22. frednk. Interesting question: how do you define terrorism anyway? I think the word derives from the idea of a “reign of terror” and originally only referred to the actions of rulers.

    I guess that it means a systematic campaign of violence designed to achieve a political purpose Val a solo nutter like Timothy McVeigh -who did have a purpose – counts as a terrorist – whereas thr Sandy Hook gunman does not.

    So I guess Carr might be right or wrong: we’ll find out when they catch a suspect

  23. rose amour

    from what I read abbott would stop the nbn in its tracks

    so what then, I thought about that and wondered
    if in that case there would be no home phone either
    would there???

    gee only a fool would vote lnp

  24. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 9:43 pm | PERMALINK

    Are you visitor free yet, or still inundated with family?’

    Another 3 weeks of house full to go yet! Then a month after that fly out so time passing quickly

  25. How would it stop home phones my say? Those not connected by fibre just stay with the existing copper network. No change to landlines.

  26. my say@1533

    rose amour

    from what I read abbott would stop the nbn in its tracks

    so what then, I thought about that and wondered
    if in that case there would be no home phone either
    would there???

    gee only a fool would vote lnp

    Tony Abbott, bringing us up to date with 1987

  27. MB and confessions, what is equally obvious is that the likely-next Government are also without anything resembling a sound economic strategy. Inevitably, unless there are meaningful reforms to Super, Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax, to the tax scales, to the management of the exchange rate and to investment policies, (to rebuild the progressive nature of the system) there will be trouble before very long.

    The easy ride – fueled by unlimited access to credit – from 1995 to 2008 is over. The LNP seem to have cottoned on that idea, but they have yet to show they know what to do next.

    We require a thorough overhaul. I can’t see any signs of it anywhere.

  28. Terrorism is the resort by non-state actors to serious criminal violence in order to achieve political or cultural ends. Against whom or by whom the serious criminal violence is enacted is beside the point.

  29. [confessions
    Posted Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 9:50 pm | PERMALINK

    Very stressful]

    Tiring especially as my grandson now has his Ls and we are driving around as nice and quiet here.:) But pleasing also they want to come and see me

  30. meher baba
    I think Joe C suffers from attention deprivation. His posts seem to cry out “kick me”, but I’d suggest “ignore” and let him deal with his condition off-line.

  31. [Mick77
    Posted Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 9:56 pm | PERMALINK
    meher baba
    I think Joe C suffers from attention deprivation. His posts seem to cry out “kick me”, but I’d suggest “ignore” and let him deal with his condition off-line.]

    Hey Mickey I was thinking the same thing about you so there you go :devil:

  32. Confessions – that’s interesting because there used to a lot spruiking around these parts how important it is.

    Don’t hear it much anymore for some reason.

  33. [1546
    Posted Tuesday, April 16, 2013 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Anyone still think Preferred PM is an important statistic?

    Dennis Shanahan?]

    very funny!!

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