Nielsen 57-43, Galaxy 54-46

Nielsen has published its first poll since slightly before last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and Galaxy its first since slightly after.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Nielsen has come in at 57-43 to the Coalition, up from 56-44 last month. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 29%, the Coalition is up two to 49% and the Greens are up two to 12%. The lead Tony Abbott opened up as preferred minister in the last poll has widened slightly, from 49-43 to 50-42. His personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approve and 53% disapprove, with Gillard down one to 37% and up one to 59%. Gillard has however gained on Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, up four to 35% with Rudd down five to 57%. Full tables including state and age breakdowns here. Nielsen also finds 52% opposing the proposed tax on high-earning superannuation accounts against 45% in support, and has head-to-head leader attribute ratings that generally have the two leaders fairly close together, with the notable exception of “has confidence of party”.

We also had in this morning’s News Limited tabloids a Galaxy poll which had the Coalition lead at 54-46, compared with 55-45 in the last such poll which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Labor’s leadership crisis three weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor was up a point to 33%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens steady on 12%. The poll also found 45% saying they would more trust Tony Abbott on superannuation policy than Julia Gillard, against 34% vice-versa; 57% supporting cuts in “middle class welfare” to fund schools and the National Disability Insurance Scheme against 36% opposed; and 46% saying Gillard better represented “blue-collar workers” against 39% for Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor up two points to 34%, the Coalition down one to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard down two on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 56%, with Tony Abbott steady on 37% and up one to 52%. Abbott leads on preferred prime minister for the first time since September, moving from 39-39 to 39-37. The government’s superannuation policy gets a similar result to Nielsen’s, with 40% supportive and 46% opposed. Labor’s broadband policy however is much preferred to the Coalition’s, by 54% to 23%. There are also questions gauging awareness of Julian Assange and what contribution he could make to parliament (32% broadly positive, 50% broadly negative).

UPDATE 2: The weekly Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, whose bouncy sample size is back up to 3835 after falling below 3000 a fortnight ago, is largely unchanged on last week, with both parties up a point on the primary vote (Labor to 32% and the Coalition to 47.5%) and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. Labor has narrowed the gap from 56.5-43.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but previous election preferences are steady at 56-44. The polling glut will continue in an hour or so when Channel Seven goes to air with ReachTEL’s first ever national poll (UPDATE 3): Or rather, not. My guess is that Seven’s chosen to hold off on it for another night.

UPDATE 3: Channel Seven has now come good with the ReachTEL result, which has the Coalition leading 57-43 from primary votes of 31% for Labor and 50% for the Coalition. Tony Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 62-38 among men and 52-48 among women. The government’s superannuation policy is opposed by 43% and supported by 33%. Forty-six per cent support the National Broadband Network against 40% for the Coalition’s broadband policy. The sample on the poll was 1924. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,610 comments on “Nielsen 57-43, Galaxy 54-46”

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  1. Confesssions
    [Have the Greens made a public announcement about the Boston bombings?]
    That’s what I asked hours ago and I suggested that Lee Rhiannon was still trying to draft the bit about “the understandable motives of the poor freedom fighters who the West has wronged” or wtte. She’s a fruitcake so anything’s possible when she’s in the mix.

  2. Sorry, Meher…not on your terms. I did respond to one of your “Libertarian free-market” spiels a few days ago…perhaps you read it, but you failed to respond to it…possibly..quite possibly thought it “beneath your dignity”…though I have to ask ; How can one spend so much effort “looking up” the arse of Tabbott and still think he is not at the lowest ebb!
    I see in a couple of posts ago you bragg of being a “free- market, libertarian” sympathiser….can there ever..EVER be a more of a dead-loss tosser than a libertarian?
    I was listening to an interview of one the other day on radio national…It would appear to me the premise is that the “individual” is sacrosanct and represents the natural order that the “strongest survives” in both personal life and market success.
    Of course, the joke’s on you!…When the “Darwinian philosophy” of the strongest surviving is in no way a reference to the personal individual, but the “individual collective”…; the group…If you did as much research into history as Marx or Engels, you’d find that any singular individual in a tribal situation that operated on a level more cunning, dominant or powerful than the tribal consenses would sooner or later be exiled from the collective for the good of the tribe….and further, if you can name any historical individual who, except for risable mirth (and please don’t say ; Prince Leonard!), created and maintained a soverign state on their own back, I will give you credit!…Libertarian..: Social Parasite.
    So when you come on sites like this that demand a little more substance than your puffed out chest and presumed pontificating, you are going to get “pinged”….as for that other drongo..when I read HIS posts I can clearly see he has just graduated with his creative writing skills from reading the labels on imported Asian tin foods as he stacks shelves.
    Now..What was it Billy Connnelly regularly advised?

  3. zoomster@1518

    Constantly intrigued by the way young people are learning from computer games.

    Watching a TV show set in Renaissance Italy tonight, said to my son “Trouble is, it assumes you know who people like the Sforzas were…”

    And he did. Because apparently one of the games he plays on line is set in Renaissance Italy…

    I just happened to come across this video after your comment. I’m not sure its exactly related, but hey :P.

  4. so what was this famous question that tells a poll

    us woman are all in love with abbott
    what total crap
    my skin crawls at the thought

  5. Not all women my say just a slight majority and not in love with Abbott just prefer him over JGPM as our next PM. Hard to believe but all current polling is showing that situation. I think it must be the sun spots affecting judgement.

  6. Tom 1553
    That very carefully worded non-statement by Milne
    “Thoughts are with community in Boston following deadly explosions.”
    is all you’ll ever get when terrorism against the West is involved. It’s marginally better than “we condemn all violence” but the Fed Greens don’t condemn perpetrators and want them brought to justice; Lee Rhiannon wants to award them medals. Compare Gillard’s, Abbott’s, O’Farrell’s and others’ statements. The Greens are not on our side.

  7. Re Bston Bombing

    ________Two things re these events

    Recently the ABC looked at the rise of the far right wing Militias in the hinterland of the USA


    Typically the Militias are racist/ignorant/ poor white males…and use all the old fascist symbols much loved by the Far Right.Swastika flag..the whole lot

    A writter ,Sinclair L:ewis …once said in the 1930ies that when fascism comes to the USA it will wrapped in the flag and carrying a Cross…a perceptive statement indeed

    Today is the anniversary it seems of the Oklahoma bombing of some years ago,,,done by a crazy right-winger

    With a black President and other matters to alarm the far right these events are quite possibly the work of such lunatics

    The media coverage of these tragic events is interesting in several ways
    First it shows the”endless coverage” appproach of the 24 hour news cycle
    We see the initial event over and over..and the responses of the President and the local police and others in Boston too

    Indeed even the NSW Police had their moment today when a spokeseman said they were being very”viligant”(we all hope they are…?)

    In truth those facts sum it all up…but the media goes on and one with a degree of tedium setting in because there is no more real news after the original events

    But they have to scour the world for something to follows up the event. hence the NSW POlice item today….as was done ad naseum after 9/11

    I recall just days and days of the same coverage,till the public protested that they had had enough
    I protested to the ABC as it even closed down the kids programs for days … for news from the USA …for days on end
    We had the care of two grand-children on several days each week and they missed the kids shows as did many others and in the end the ABCF returned the kids shows to the afternoon slots

    It is like a disease with the media…they repeat the same news again and again…as Uhlmann did tonight on 7.30 show

    I have switched off all TV and Radio news tonight…as tbey have nothing more to say…but just repeat and repeat the same comments…but that is what the 24 hour cycle is about I guess

  8. Joe@1552. I read your other post too. It was full of abuse, but it also made it clear that you are a sympathizer with Marx’s view of the world. Marx, like me, was something of an economic rationalist. I’m not sure if he was a libertarian: although he did take some liberties with the family’s housekeeper!!

    Anyway, to each their own. I won’t be responding to your posts again until you stop swearing at me. Perhaps I am being unreasonable, but there you go.

  9. Compact Crank joins in…: “Poor Joe,

    Can’t get a visa to North Korea?”

    Oh there’s a bounty of bait to haul in tonight…even the tiddlers que up!

  10. [ It was a dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd as LOTO in the first place.]

    LoL I can only surmise that Rudd must have butt hurt something chronic. Never miss a chance to slag him.

    On the contrary my little mincing poodle. Rudd was the only way you were going to get rid of Howard. AND he did a pretty good job as PM, until the right faction wanted their power over everything back.

    It must really really grate you that the Australian people vastly prefer him to all else, when your really really hate him. LoL

  11. deb
    After 9/11 (or 11/9 in our parlance)some psychologists were saying that constant exposure to replays of the events could have detrimental effects on people. Thinking about it, they could be correct. If the body has to keep producing the chemicals to cope with the stress of seeing tragedy replayed repeatedly, could this damage the system?

  12. Mick 77 1559…re The Greens
    Your paranoid hatred of the Greenss comes out in most of your posts

    You seem determined to aee the Greens as in some way traitorous …but we all know the roots of your dislike of them
    It’s is as I have said here before…they.. more than others parties are criticial of your far right Israeli masters and they speak out for the Palestinians which you see an abhorent
    …you ought to read Anthony Lowensteins Blog…great stuff
    …though there are many Jews who would dispute your extremist views as well as he

    BTW The Greens are holding up very well indeed in all the recent pols

  13. An update of my post from yesterday:(Monday, April 15, 2013 at 10:15 pm)

    Amazing consistency with a massive sample of polling this fortnight:
    57 Reachtel (1924 to 12th April)
    55 Essential (1897 to 14th April)
    56 Morgan multi (3835 to 14th April)
    57 Neilsen (1400 to 13th April)
    54 Galaxy (1005 to 11th April)
    55 Newspoll (1143 to 7th April

    Average = 55.7 from combined sample size of 11,000 plus over the last fortnight

    I dont think i can ever remember so much polling in a fortnight (in fact most in the last week)

  14. [is all you’ll ever get when terrorism against the West is involved.]

    Has this been established? It is terrorism, but from where, by whom, for what purpose. Lets not redo Bush where a tragedy was ultimately used to create an even wider tragedy.

  15. Compact Crank trys a bit of incongruity..: “Any idea why Socialism and Communism is so overwhelmingly successful on a Global scale?”
    Dunno, Compo’…have you asked your immediate family?

  16. [It was a dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd as LOTO in the first place]

    A dreadful mistake to elect Kim Beazley?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Simon Crean?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Mark Latham?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Julia Gillard?

    You guys aren’t good at this are you?

  17. Sixty-six Sri Lankan asylum seekers who made an epic 44-day boat voyage to Geraldton last week will learn their fate ”imminently”, Immigration Minister Brendan O’Connor says.
    It’s understood Mr O’Connor will announce in coming days that some will be sent home after authorities determined they were not genuine refugees.

    Read more:

  18. Mod Lib@1574

    It was a dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd as LOTO in the first place

    A dreadful mistake to elect Kim Beazley?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Simon Crean?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Mark Latham?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Julia Gillard?

    You guys aren’t good at this are you?

    and the Fibs are kicking intellectual goals by electing Abbott as their leader

  19. Well, it was fun while it lasted, but with Meher gone all flaccid and Mick77 feeling (always feeling!) he’s above it all I’m going to apologise to Mr. Bowe for my language if it offended and will say goodnight.

    Goodnight..right-wing wimps!

  20. Mod Lib@1574

    It was a dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd as LOTO in the first place

    A dreadful mistake to elect Kim Beazley?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Simon Crean?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Mark Latham?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Kevin Rudd?
    A dreadful mistake to elect Julia Gillard?

    You guys aren’t good at this are you?

    <unabashed display of prejudice>
    Are there any politicians that aren’t dreadful mistakes?
    </unabashed display of prejudice>

  21. Tom Paine, anytime I might be slightly tempted to think I am wrong about KR, all I need to do is think of those who support him these days – the likes of you and the Liberal Party.

  22. [1567
    Thomas. Paine.

    It must really really grate you that the Australian people vastly prefer him to all else, when your really really hate him. LoL]

    Of course, I don’t hate him. I’m just relieved he no longer holds anything resembling an important office.

  23. Briefly please let it be known I have never been a Kevvie fan, not since he messed up our health system in the 90’s. Even JGPM is better than K07.

  24. Briefly,

    The problem the ALP has is that Rudd remains in Parliament for only one reason – to be Leader of the ALP and PM.

  25. davidwh, Howard and Costello between them really squandered their time in power. They should have carried out necessary reforms to the structure of the economy, but, instead they just made things worse.

    They turned the housing market and the retirement income system into tax havens. Australian household debt is at an all time high – 95% of GDP – precisely because of their mismanagement.

    Rather than thinking of the best interests of the economy as a whole, they allowed ideology and favouritism to guide their actions. We are all about to pay for their mistakes.

  26. TP 1571
    [Has this been established?]
    Yes, it’s terrorism by any definition unless you think a few gas mains exploded with ball-bearings in them. But if you’re sensitive about the word then let’s call it callous murder of innocents
    [but from where, by whom, for what purpose.]
    not important for this debate, however I’ve bet Deblonay’s last dollar that it’s his jihadist mates from ME – it’s their style
    [Lets not redo Bush where a tragedy was ultimately used to create an even wider tragedy.]
    What does that have to do with calling a spade a spade. 9/11 was heinous terrorism and was called just that. How to track down and deal with the perpetrators is again a separate issue but for the record in 2001 it was clear that the Afghan Taliban government was giving Al Qaeda safe haven and they got numerous chances to hand over the criminal masterminds but refused.

  27. CC @ 1584, the problems we have run a bit deeper than KR. It appears we are about to take the biggest hiding since the Depression. But don’t be concerned for our sake. KR will never regain office. The LNP lack the mettle to run the country and will wreck the joint. Labor will be back in office before you know it!

  28. 1588

    Not going to happen. To much of the ALP hate him from his first go and his subsequent guerrilla campaign.

  29. [The problem the ALP has is that Rudd remains in Parliament for only one reason – to be Leader of the ALP and PM]

    Actualllllly….the problems are:

    Gillard is failing at being PM and will bring Labor to a pitiful destruction.

    The Party is controlled by a handful of unrepresentative swill factional warlords who have no interest in the public or party except their power over it.

    When they got themselves a decent PM with public support…self interested factional mafia traded him for the return of their power, and put their queen on the throne to protect it.

    The factional mafia will protect their power even to the extent of Labor getting annihilated and Abbott become PM>

    Labor becoming a sick copy of the Liberal party.

    And finally….Gillard failing at being PM and more suited to being a member of the Liberal Party.

  30. [1583

    Briefly please let it be known I have never been a Kevvie fan, not since he messed up our health system in the 90′s. Even JGPM is better than K07.]

    All well noted, d 🙂

  31. This is going to be so funny in the run up to an election with Gillard and Labor both really stinking up the polls….but the same polls saying the story would be reversed if Rudd was reinstalled as PM.

    There will be many panicking MPs who will turn on their little mafia bosses…there will be a public bun fight as the ship goes down by those wanting to save their seats and a hanful of mafia wanting to trade everything to maintaining their power.

    Self destruction…and Gillard sitting there fully knowing that be not standing down she is guaranteeing the outcome. Her personal ego before all else.

  32. Briefly #1585 only the last four years and only to the extent that once the economy was in very good shape that they focused on buying government rather than securing the future of the country. They should have held back some of the tax cuts and welfare and invested more in infrastructure, health, education and aged-care. Obviously Work Choices was a mistake which gave Labor the excuse to take us too far back the other way.

    Yes the last nine years have set us back much further than we should have been set back and I don’t expect an Abbott government will improve things much.

  33. The more I see of the rancid bitterness of TP (1590), the less I think we deserve to be taken seriously by anyone. This kind of repetitious, snarling, irrelevant drivel is straight from the student politics and 70’s and 80’s. The only interests who gain from this muck are the LNP.

  34. meher baba 1513

    I liked your quote in 1513

    Most right-wingers I know think I’m left -wing and most left-wingers I know think I’m right-wing

    Many of my mates describe me in those terms but i think its a good way to be for there are good people on both sides and both sides do some good and bad things

  35. davidwh, Howard and Costello compounded the distortions in the economy and the tax system. We have structural problems now that were designed and entrenched by H&C. Rudd should have addressed them, but didn’t. Instead, he perpetuated them while Gillard has been too weakened to attempt to change them. We have a real problem. We cannot run the economy at full employment and balance the budget at the same time. This is directly attributable to the decisions made 20,15,10,5 years ago. And now we will pay for the errors and omissions of the past. That is unavoidable.

  36. Davidwh

    It isn’t so much sitting on the fence for i do sometimes take positions that are aligned to the right wing then on other issues i can take a left wing position

    I think the two worst things are when a person has no opinions or will only listen to those that say what they want to hear

  37. It reminds me of that saying…

    All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good people to stop blaming Gillard.

    Keep fighting.

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