Nielsen 57-43, Galaxy 54-46

Nielsen has published its first poll since slightly before last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and Galaxy its first since slightly after.

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Nielsen has come in at 57-43 to the Coalition, up from 56-44 last month. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 29%, the Coalition is up two to 49% and the Greens are up two to 12%. The lead Tony Abbott opened up as preferred minister in the last poll has widened slightly, from 49-43 to 50-42. His personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approve and 53% disapprove, with Gillard down one to 37% and up one to 59%. Gillard has however gained on Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, up four to 35% with Rudd down five to 57%. Full tables including state and age breakdowns here. Nielsen also finds 52% opposing the proposed tax on high-earning superannuation accounts against 45% in support, and has head-to-head leader attribute ratings that generally have the two leaders fairly close together, with the notable exception of “has confidence of party”.

We also had in this morning’s News Limited tabloids a Galaxy poll which had the Coalition lead at 54-46, compared with 55-45 in the last such poll which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Labor’s leadership crisis three weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor was up a point to 33%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens steady on 12%. The poll also found 45% saying they would more trust Tony Abbott on superannuation policy than Julia Gillard, against 34% vice-versa; 57% supporting cuts in “middle class welfare” to fund schools and the National Disability Insurance Scheme against 36% opposed; and 46% saying Gillard better represented “blue-collar workers” against 39% for Abbott.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor up two points to 34%, the Coalition down one to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard down two on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 56%, with Tony Abbott steady on 37% and up one to 52%. Abbott leads on preferred prime minister for the first time since September, moving from 39-39 to 39-37. The government’s superannuation policy gets a similar result to Nielsen’s, with 40% supportive and 46% opposed. Labor’s broadband policy however is much preferred to the Coalition’s, by 54% to 23%. There are also questions gauging awareness of Julian Assange and what contribution he could make to parliament (32% broadly positive, 50% broadly negative).

UPDATE 2: The weekly Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, whose bouncy sample size is back up to 3835 after falling below 3000 a fortnight ago, is largely unchanged on last week, with both parties up a point on the primary vote (Labor to 32% and the Coalition to 47.5%) and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. Labor has narrowed the gap from 56.5-43.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but previous election preferences are steady at 56-44. The polling glut will continue in an hour or so when Channel Seven goes to air with ReachTEL’s first ever national poll (UPDATE 3): Or rather, not. My guess is that Seven’s chosen to hold off on it for another night.

UPDATE 3: Channel Seven has now come good with the ReachTEL result, which has the Coalition leading 57-43 from primary votes of 31% for Labor and 50% for the Coalition. Tony Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 62-38 among men and 52-48 among women. The government’s superannuation policy is opposed by 43% and supported by 33%. Forty-six per cent support the National Broadband Network against 40% for the Coalition’s broadband policy. The sample on the poll was 1924. Full results here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,610 comments on “Nielsen 57-43, Galaxy 54-46”

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  1. Primary Votes: ALP 29 (-2) L/NP 49 (+2)

    oh dear! what happened to Fraudband? i was sure Labor would get a bounce from it.

  2. I was phone-polled for this, after my Mum handed me the phone because she wouldn’t talk to a computer. (Not that it made any difference to the response).

  3. It’s all over rummel.

    Labor have got a lot to learn about internal fighting.

    They can spend the next decade thinking about it!

  4. Gee, that’s bad, even for Nielsen. And I thought Labor had had a great week!

    There truly might be no way back. Most people I know in the real world (as opposed to you die hards on here) have thought for months that Labor was sunk. I have always argued they were still a chance.

    But results like this one are a blow, that’s for sure.

  5. The Galaxy Poll also found that 57 per cent are in favour of reducing middle-class welfare to fund schools and the National Disability Insurance Scheme. I don’t know how many were opposed.

  6. [Centre
    Posted Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 9:08 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s all over rummel.

    Labor have got a lot to learn about internal fighting.

    They can spend the next decade thinking about it!]


    So it would seem. Labor have a clear policy winner and the Public dont give a toss…. its all over!

  7. oh dear! what happened to Fraudband? i was sure Labor would get a bounce from it.

    Fraudband as you call it I think would be neutral in voters minds.

    However I would have thought there would have been a move towards the ALP because of the China visit. But then the Superannuation schmozzle wouldn’t have gone down well.

  8. 60-40 is worse I’ve seen for Labor 57/43-54/46 is the norm.

    Seems to me the polling “suggests” the population prefers a continuous Coalition Party in power – just remove the Party Leaders every few years.

  9. Party faithful should remember that this is on all fours with the party’s new strategy to lose the election.
    The Tories will self-combust with shock.

  10. Well it’s got nothing to do with policies.

    Labor are headed for defeat for two reasons;

    1)internal fighting, since 2010 really, and

    2) as a former state premier said to me “money can’t buy for the sort of campaign News Ltd have conducted for the Coalition since 2010”.

  11. hah jv

    You Greens deserve the Monkey, the bestest friend the environment ever had.

    Don’t worry, you lunatics have played your part with your stupid fixed price on carbon (carbon tax lie) and your boatpeople pig headedness.

    The Monkey will screw you (Greens) good and proper!

  12. Centre

    Not if the Greens retain the balance in the Senate, and Labor votes with them (much doubt about that on refugees for a start)

  13. I’d put the Greens last.

    They’re nothing but a nuisance. Labor should not want to be hindered by them again in future.

  14. [GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Nielsen has come in at 57-43 to the Coalition, up from 56-44 last month.]

    Was the last Neilsen pre leadershit that wasn’t? If so, and after sundry self indulgent Labor MPs going rogue to OM, a 1pt drift on 2PP is surely a welcome reprieve?

  15. If Labor lose the election, it must be goodbye to the following:

    – Rudd
    – Gillard
    – Swan
    – Crean
    – Fitzgibbon
    – Shorten.

    Looks like Combet will be given the long slow task of doing a Beazley.

  16. In the last three weeks…..

    Kev gets knocked off again,
    Labor play SUPER Wars,
    Libs release the disaster that is FraudBand.
    Gillard looks like a PM in china and is all over the news
    Labor down to 29% party vote……..

  17. Great, so we agree that a united ALP has a chance of clawing back.

    Over to you, self indulgent malcontents. Pull your heads in, unite behind the current leadership and STFU with your whingeing and moaning.

  18. Confessions.
    I doubt that they have it in their bones. They have not stopped trying to lose the next election since THLV was corked.

  19. Kev gets knocked off again, )and the internal division becomes very public as the losers throw various tantrums)
    Labor play SUPER Wars (and a limit to the amount of super the rich can accumulate is portrayed as an attack on super, with the Labor losers chipping in),
    Libs release the disaster that is FraudBand (Murdoch tried, but not even he could paint that pig).
    Gillard looks like a PM in china and is all over the news (all over?)
    Labor down to 29% party vote……..(in another poll that doesn’t matter, just fun to watch)

  20. Puff, that would have been our National poll that will be released on Seven News on Monday night. Sample = 1,924.

    Nick – ReachTEL.

  21. And those same flakes made a decision to ensure a loss at the election – preferring that to ceding internal power. Why would anyone unite behind that?

  22. GhostWhoVotes relates a further attitudinal result from the Galaxy poll:

    [GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 6s

    #Galaxy Poll Best represents blue collar workers: Gillard 46 Abbott 39 #auspol]

  23. [if you prefer religious nutters and shooters to science/ ethics based policy.]

    It’s not what I prefer.

    The Greens have NO idea on how to win. Their policies are just unelectable.

    Labor were warned, keep away from them they’re bad news!

  24. [jaundiced view
    Posted Sunday, April 14, 2013 at 9:48 pm | Permalink
    A lot of people don’t see the point of
    “uniting” behind flakes who stand for nothing.]

    Carbon pricing.
    Plain package cigs
    Pension up
    University finding up (though you wouldn’t know it as the squeal like stuffed pigs because the 10% upfront payment discount goes.)
    etc. and so on.

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