ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition in Victoria

An automated phone poll of state voting intention in Victoria finds a surge in support for the Liberals since the last poll was conducted the day after Denis Napthine became leader.

ReachTEL’s monthly automated phone poll of state voting intention in Victoria is an encouraging result for Denis Napthine, seeing the Liberals up 5.1% on a poll conducted the day after his surprise ascension to the premiership to 45.2%, with the Nationals down from 4.8% to 4.3%. Labor is down from 36.9% to 35.3%, and the Greens from 12.3% to 11.5%. ReachTEL doesn’t publish two-party results, but on my reading of 2010 election preferences this comes out as a 54-46 lead to the Coalition, out from 51-49 last time. The poll gives Napthine a combined 40.6% very good and good rating compared with 21.8% poor and very poor, and he has turned a 53.5%-46.5% deficit against Daniel Andrews as preferred premier into a 52.0%-48.0% lead. The poll was conducted on Friday night from a sample of 1232 respondents.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

20 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. yes federal labor can take note. Napthine is unoffensive, even likeable and will be much harder to beat than Ted the Toff.
    Donning on black rimmed glasses does not suddenly get you more votes prime minister

  2. Napthine was on ABC Radio Melbourne this morning – he is starting to get very much into his stride. He seems to be clearing up a lot of the stuff that Baillieu left lying around.

    Daniel Andrews will be starting to get nervous – facing a rebounding Liberal Party led by Napthine, and having an ambitious Martin Pakula sitting behind him in the lower house.

  3. This poll isn’t surprise

    Napthine performance has been far and a way ahead of Ted’s performance but i think this goes to show that Napthine is a more serious politician with lengthy experience of being a minister whilst Ted didn’t have any management experience or didn’t appear to have any passion for politics and policy

    After two years nearly all departmental secretaries have been turned over and it will be interesting to see how the government handles its budget

    The real test will be how this Government handles its relationship with Canberra over the next two years

  4. Federal libs don’t have to do a thing psephos, labor is handing them the country on a plate…enter main and dessert!

  5. Napthine is miles more P A savvy than was Big Ted…and much harded to defeat..and his rural base./background will help in those country seats where the Libs have done badly

  6. Deb

    I see in the ALP redistribution submission suggestion of abolishing the rural seat of Rippon along with the abolishing of another rural seat to balance one and another out

  7. M Beemer post 10
    __________
    Odd requestfrom ALP … as Ripon(Ararat/Maryboro) is a Labor held seat which they won when they defeated Kennet Govt in ’99 and held last election dispite the Lib-swing

    It was held by Stephen Elder,Bolte’s nephew for many years
    prior to”99

  8. Does it really matter the chance of the Liberals winning reelection in a Labor stronghold like Victoria is insignificant.

  9. The odds of The Liberals losing the next Victoria election is less then 10%, the electorate rarely kick out a first term government unless they are really really bad

  10. Thats pre-Kennett Victoria. In post-Kennett Victoria unless you are a really good liberal government you are going down. Besides Tony will likely be in power and there is no way the Liberals in Victoria can hold on on a one seat majority.

  11. They were definately headed that way Dovif..but they played the game changer (federal labor take note), now napthine who comes across as someones uncle, is putting out fires, and if he delivers a resonable budget will be given benefit of the doubt. Except tone as PM will sway may many back…it will be ionteresting as feds will slash and burn

  12. 14

    It is little more complicated that pre-Kennet, The only reason that Bolte was premier was the DLP put him there, he always got at least half the seats (half in 1955 and significantly more every election after that) in the Legislative Assembly with less than 40% (including all the way down to 36% more than once). Without the split, much of the time Bolte spent as premier would have an ALP state Government.

  13. Politics is a pendulum. If the state elections in Tasmania and SA go the way I think the liberals are going to then have wall to wall control of the states and as we know that is an anomaly which rarely lasts long. Victoria is going to have to bring back balance into the political landscape.

  14. 2:17pm BREAKING NEWS Victorian cabinet minister Andrew McIntosh has resigned from the ministry and parliamentary committees.

  15. Breaking News:

    We have been deprived of possibly the greatest clash off all time.

    Black Caviar is to be retired undefeated with 25 starts for 25 wins.

    Black Caviar v It’s A Dundeel at 1600m?

    You Victorians know when to pull the plug!

    It’s A Dundeel would beat it ­čśÄ

  16. Hah what about the price of carbon crashing to $4 in Europe!

    But NO, we had to start with a fixed price instead of proceeding immediately with an ETS.

    What a FARCE!

    I told you, keep away from the Greens, they’re bad news!

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