GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Nielsen has come in at 57-43 to the Coalition, up from 56-44 last month. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 29%, the Coalition is up two to 49% and the Greens are up two to 12%. The lead Tony Abbott opened up as preferred minister in the last poll has widened slightly, from 49-43 to 50-42. His personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approve and 53% disapprove, with Gillard down one to 37% and up one to 59%. Gillard has however gained on Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, up four to 35% with Rudd down five to 57%. Full tables including state and age breakdowns here. Nielsen also finds 52% opposing the proposed tax on high-earning superannuation accounts against 45% in support, and has head-to-head leader attribute ratings that generally have the two leaders fairly close together, with the notable exception of “has confidence of party”.
We also had in this morning’s News Limited tabloids a Galaxy poll which had the Coalition lead at 54-46, compared with 55-45 in the last such poll which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Labor’s leadership crisis three weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor was up a point to 33%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens steady on 12%. The poll also found 45% saying they would more trust Tony Abbott on superannuation policy than Julia Gillard, against 34% vice-versa; 57% supporting cuts in “middle class welfare” to fund schools and the National Disability Insurance Scheme against 36% opposed; and 46% saying Gillard better represented “blue-collar workers” against 39% for Abbott.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor up two points to 34%, the Coalition down one to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard down two on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 56%, with Tony Abbott steady on 37% and up one to 52%. Abbott leads on preferred prime minister for the first time since September, moving from 39-39 to 39-37. The government’s superannuation policy gets a similar result to Nielsen’s, with 40% supportive and 46% opposed. Labor’s broadband policy however is much preferred to the Coalition’s, by 54% to 23%. There are also questions gauging awareness of Julian Assange and what contribution he could make to parliament (32% broadly positive, 50% broadly negative).
UPDATE 2: The weekly Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, whose bouncy sample size is back up to 3835 after falling below 3000 a fortnight ago, is largely unchanged on last week, with both parties up a point on the primary vote (Labor to 32% and the Coalition to 47.5%) and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. Labor has narrowed the gap from 56.5-43.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but previous election preferences are steady at 56-44. The polling glut will continue in an hour or so when Channel Seven goes to air with ReachTEL’s first ever national poll (UPDATE 3): Or rather, not. My guess is that Seven’s chosen to hold off on it for another night.
UPDATE 3: Channel Seven has now come good with the ReachTEL result, which has the Coalition leading 57-43 from primary votes of 31% for Labor and 50% for the Coalition. Tony Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 62-38 among men and 52-48 among women. The government’s superannuation policy is opposed by 43% and supported by 33%. Forty-six per cent support the National Broadband Network against 40% for the Coalition’s broadband policy. The sample on the poll was 1924. Full results here.
Feeney
If you hand out HTV cards for Labor on 14/9 then you’ll be in the running for the Keating true believers badge, and well deserved. If my mother beats you around the head at the polling booth, don’t blame me; she’s nearly 90 and will decide for herself, after I’ve told her what to decide.
feeney,
We already knew that!
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#ReachTEL Poll Govt new superannuation policy: Support 32.8 Oppose 42.6 #auspol]}
A simple test:
Stick a $50 note under the nose of someone less well to do and ask them if they would like to keep it or should it be given to someone from Kew or North Sydney. Just watch out in case your arm is ripped from its socket.
Why are people getting het up over a reachtel national poll. They could have had the Libs ahead 70-30 last week.
We will never know.
My all time favourite poll is Nielsen’s the day of the 2007 election. in fact it was the same as yesterday.
[Surely a have you heard of them slots in somewhere?]
Indeed, as in the preceeding question. ‘Are you aware’ etc.
[#ReachTEL Poll Govt new superannuation policy: Support 32.8 Oppose 42.6 #auspol]
Question 2: If opposing, why?
BK,
Carbon Tax!
reachtels questions.
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-april-2013
Ru
The cooperation rate from phone polls is about 10%. Good stuff on mobile phones too.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/04/the-uncanny-accuracy-of-polling-averages-part-iv-are-the-polls-getting-worse/
Carbon Tax!
No that’s #3
[BB
10% refuse to answer polls.]
It’s quite a lot higher than that. The “undecided” result that a pollster like Newspoll publishes refers to those who did participate in the poll, but couldn’t be drawn on the question of voting intention even when their arm was twisted with the “who are you leaning towards” follow-up. These people may have responded to other questions in the poll like leader ratings. On top of that, there’s the very large number who weren’t available, screened out the call or refused to participate.
BK & GG
Yeah – the super changes are right up there with an understanding of the Henry & Gonski reports. I’m sure 80% would give an opinion based on no knowledge. But I think that’s the point which has been hammered at here before (including by me). It’s not about policies this time it’s about persons and perceptions. It’s a bear market for ALP, in every state and federally, and no amount of announcements can change that.
[No that’s #3]
Yep, first ask the CT question and only then the questions about Super and NBN. Pretty standard stuff from a pollster with an agenda.
ru:
Thanks for the questions.
[From what you’ve heard about the National Broadband Network, generally speaking do you prefer Labor’s more expensive & faster solution, or the Coalition’s less expensive & slower alternative?]
They were able to qualify the NBN question with a ‘from what you’ve heard’ lead in. Should’ve done the same with the question about superannuation reforms.
Thanks Diog
A good read. The robocalls on one night issue was highlighted. I thought it was my idea. 😉
So Abbott has suddenly got popular with women? I am skeptical about that.
Mick77@1462: You are pushing the proverbial substance uphill if you are expecting to get the die hards on this forum to discuss the proposition that Labor perhaps has some ok policies but are selling them extremely badly.
The prevailing wisdom on PB seems to be that the NBN, Gonski, superannuation, etc. are all part of a policy package that will inevitably sweep Gillard to victory on Sept 14 and any polling that suggests otherwise is rigged.
Puff
[So Abbott has suddenly got popular with women? I am skeptical about that.]
Not really – he’s just climbed to a bit more than line-ball with Gillard. That’s hardly “popular with women” ‘cos they don’t like her either, but the men prefer him to Gillard by a country mile now.
I am sure the polls are correct and that data was collected and analysed. I wonder if it is actually measuring what it says it is.
A précis.
[For a variety of reasons, response rates are declining throughout the survey industry. This has the potential to create problems, including both reduced accuracy and the introduction of bias.
These problems are made worse by firms that take various other types of shortcuts, usually in the name of cost containment.
Pollsters have various defense mechanisms to combat low response rates — particularly weighting based on demographic and sometimes political variables.
There is some evidence that pollsters do not behave independently from one another — that the results obtained by one may influence others. For an individual pollster, this may be a defense mechanism of sorts — a poor pollsters can look toward a stronger one for guidance. But it may create additional risks for forecasters if the “consensus” view is wrong.]
Have we evidence of this in Australia? I think we may.
meher baba
[Labor perhaps has some ok policies but are selling them extremely badly.]
I think the problem really is the salesperson.
Mick77
That would mean the brainwashing of Australian voters by Murdoch is successful.
ru
What amazes me is that the polls can be as accurate as they are given 90% of the population select themselves out of taking them.
Channel Seven telling porkies. A poll taken last weekend.
No it was a poll taken on Friday night. If you want to screw a sample they picked the best way to do it.
Puff
A bit simplistic and arrogant to suggest that Aussies are brainwashed into voting against Gillard. In a democracy, imho, the voters always get it right, by definition.
[You are pushing the proverbial substance uphill if you are expecting to get the die hards on this forum to discuss the proposition that Labor perhaps has some ok policies but are selling them extremely badly.]
The polls towards the end of last year and early this year showed that the public is willing to listen to Labor, if only Labor would set aside its self indulgent discussion about itself.
I think we can all agree that for a party in govt, this just looks flaky, self indulgent, and makes the party look like it cares more about its own internals than governing for all Australians and our national interest.
The current polls are likely reflecting the latest bout of whiteanting washing through.
[Peter van Onselen Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 3m
#Showdown on now….my guests, shortly, are Senator Barnaby Joyce and the Higher Education minister Sharon Bird. Sky News.]
Barnaby stepping up media profile now he’s a HoR candidate.
How long until we see the usual Barnaby gaffes he’s known for?
Confessions @1476
Change the words “Labor” and the words “party in govt” for the words “Gillard” and “Swan” and you’re on the money
As for the polls, nothing’s washing through. It’s dead. It’s been dead for the last two years! Only now are people beginning to wake up to that fact.
It’s an ex parrot!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npjOSLCR2hE
mick,
Being arrogant and simple seems to come very easy to you, comrade.
Confessions: yes, Labor disunity is a problem reflected in the polling.
But – little respect though I have for the guy – Crean was on to something with his “tin ear” comment.
The super kerfuffle was a good example. Or even last weekend: why put out the message about the cuts to uni funding so close to the launch of thr Gonski reforms? If I had been in charge of this, I would have announced Gonski now and announced the uni cuts on Budget night, in among a whole lot of other cuts. It might have looked sneaky, but it would have spared us all the “robbing Peter to pay Paul” stuff (and at one point yesterday I felt that, if I heard that abominable cliche just one more time, I was going to smash something!).
I can’t understand why it is that the people who Labor pay a lot of money to advise them don’t do a better job. I think there’s a bit of a siege mentality at play (indeed, someone I know who is close to a senior minister – and staunch Gillard supporter – recently used the word “fatalistic” to me).
ReachTel was generally consistent with Nielsen.
[As for the polls, nothing’s washing through.]
We’ll see.
It seems the Reachtel poll was commissioned by Channel 7. They (Channel 7) probably also wrote the questions, so I wouldn’t necessarily blame Reachtel for the leading nature of the poll. He who pays the piper will call the tune. Mark Riley hasn’t had much original to talk about lately so perhaps it was just a bit of a profile building exercise for him.
meher baba,
Your years of practical implmentation experience of Labor policy are much missed. It’s a shame you have become just another relay for MSM talking points
Who knows, with a bit of nouse you could have been a contender. People used to think you had an independant mind.
Sadly, not now.
[ why put out the message about the cuts to uni funding so close to the launch of thr Gonski reforms?]
Because Crean had been in the media carrying on about failure to sell education reform.
The govt has spent the last 3 years fighting Cabinet leaks which has led to an extreme media management approach – poor as it’s transpired, yet not unexpected given the circumstances.
[If I had been in charge of this, I would have announced Gonski now and announced the uni cuts on Budget night, in among a whole lot of other cuts.]
meher baba
I would have let the Libs stew in Fraudband for at least two weeks… but no, Labor came to the rescue cutting money from Uni’s and took the focus of their best strategic win in over a year. High Five Gillard advisors 🙂
Mick77@1475
That’s true, but in getting it “right” they don’t necessarily end up with good governemnt (see Howard government). All that this statement means is that we get the government we (collectively) deserve.
It’s a bit like saying that the treatment of asylum seekers is a failure of our democracy. It may be morally reprehensible, but it’s not a failure of democracy but rather a triumph – the people are getting exactly what they want. Unless you subscribe to the Greens’ idea that what we really need to do is elect a new people, it seems we must live with some bad collective choices for a greater long term good.
Mick77
[voters always get it right, by definition.]
Yep, just see how right the voters got it right with the likes of Bush and Adolph. 😉
rummel:
It was Crean who blabbed to the media about Gonski, not Cabinet.
Unfortunately the govt is going to have to deal with this kind of craven disunity until election day. I just hope that Cabinet and Gillard’s advisors have some kind of plan for dealing with this.
[Bridget O’Flynn @BridgetOFlynn 11m
This is no walk in the park for Barnaby on #showdown. PeterVO ‘s making him answer the question. Barnaby is red.]
Any Bludgers watching?
re 1481 – I can’t understand why it is that the people who Labor pay a lot of money to advise them don’t do a better job…
If Labor are paying anyone a lot of money to advise them they should demand their money back. It’s not working. How could anyone think that announcing Uni cost savings on the even of announcing Gonski was a good idea? As another poster said, that sort of thing should be buried in the budget where it will just be caught up in the general condemnation that will come from the media, special interests and the Opposition.
[It was Crean who blabbed to the media about Gonski, not Cabinet. ]
To be clear it was Crean’s comments about Gonski which first raised the spectre of Gonski in the public domain. Govt followed with confirmation about funding juggling.
steve77,
Yeah, dishonesty is always the best policy.
[http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-16/one-nation-founder-sues-abbott/4633398]
With an interview with Ettridge included.
It is a plainly a civil claim.
It might be inferred that he is acting for himself by his reference to arranging the process server. He mentions that the Court received his claim. That does not mean much as the Court will not reject a claim if it is in a proper form irrespective of its content (within reason).
Ettridge will have to overcome the limitation period which expired years ago.He has dealt himself a bit of a hammer blow on that by saying he commenced now because Abbott wants to be PM. That sounds like a collateral purpose.
GG@1485. I assume you are being sarcastic, but you’ve got my political odyssey the wrong way round. I am slightly to the right of centre by nature and was once an enthusiastic implementer of Liberal policy. I have come to believe that Labor under a secular, economically aware leader like Gillard is far and away the party most likely to deliver the sort of combination of free market, libertarian and environmentally protective policies I support.
As for the MSM, apart from the ABC, I keep away as much as I can and never buy, and rarely even glance at, News Ltd publications. My views, right or wrong, are entirely (and, I fear, often exclusively) my own.
I am therefore something of a convert to Labor. But, yes, I confess that I am critical of how they have been functioning at the Federal level since Xmas: not so much in terms of their policies, but their approach. They seem to me to be desperately in need of a strategy. But embattled people often have difficulty in thinking things through clearly. I feel really sorry for them and fear that the whole Ruddstoration business has out them in a diabolical position.
We will all pay the price if this chaos leads to our being governed by the very strange and unready lot on the other side
GG @ 1494 – well, certainly in the sense that it works, as the Liberal-IPA-News Limited Coalition so aptly demonstrate.
Still, announcing these cuts along with all the other budgetary measures next month would have been reasonable and honest.
the Reachtel first question is ok, but the second one on preferred prime minister adds up to 100%.
Every other poll conducted in Australia has a healthy Don’t Know/Don’t Care/Undecided number for PPM – not Reachtel. How have they allocated? Don’t say.
Q3. uses the pejorative “carbon tax” so push polling from then on.
Need to do better Reachtel to be taken seriously.
Mind you, polling KAP is great compared with dopey Neilsen polling Family First. Can you imagine being asked “Do you prefer Family First?”
newman-and-abbott-given-clear-signals-in-damning-poll
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@1466
No Puff. You and others here will not face up to the reality that Abbott is not popular but Gillard is even less popular.