GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Nielsen has come in at 57-43 to the Coalition, up from 56-44 last month. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 29%, the Coalition is up two to 49% and the Greens are up two to 12%. The lead Tony Abbott opened up as preferred minister in the last poll has widened slightly, from 49-43 to 50-42. His personal ratings are unchanged at 43% approve and 53% disapprove, with Gillard down one to 37% and up one to 59%. Gillard has however gained on Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader, up four to 35% with Rudd down five to 57%. Full tables including state and age breakdowns here. Nielsen also finds 52% opposing the proposed tax on high-earning superannuation accounts against 45% in support, and has head-to-head leader attribute ratings that generally have the two leaders fairly close together, with the notable exception of “has confidence of party”.
We also had in this morning’s News Limited tabloids a Galaxy poll which had the Coalition lead at 54-46, compared with 55-45 in the last such poll which was conducted in the immediate aftermath of Labor’s leadership crisis three weeks ago. On the primary vote, Labor was up a point to 33%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens steady on 12%. The poll also found 45% saying they would more trust Tony Abbott on superannuation policy than Julia Gillard, against 34% vice-versa; 57% supporting cuts in “middle class welfare” to fund schools and the National Disability Insurance Scheme against 36% opposed; and 46% saying Gillard better represented “blue-collar workers” against 39% for Abbott.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor up two points to 34%, the Coalition down one to 48% and the Greens steady on 9%, with the Coalition’s two-party lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. The monthly personal ratings have Julia Gillard down two on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 56%, with Tony Abbott steady on 37% and up one to 52%. Abbott leads on preferred prime minister for the first time since September, moving from 39-39 to 39-37. The government’s superannuation policy gets a similar result to Nielsen’s, with 40% supportive and 46% opposed. Labor’s broadband policy however is much preferred to the Coalition’s, by 54% to 23%. There are also questions gauging awareness of Julian Assange and what contribution he could make to parliament (32% broadly positive, 50% broadly negative).
UPDATE 2: The weekly Roy Morgan multi-mode poll, whose bouncy sample size is back up to 3835 after falling below 3000 a fortnight ago, is largely unchanged on last week, with both parties up a point on the primary vote (Labor to 32% and the Coalition to 47.5%) and the Greens up half a point to 10.5%. Labor has narrowed the gap from 56.5-43.5 to 55.5-44.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, but previous election preferences are steady at 56-44. The polling glut will continue in an hour or so when Channel Seven goes to air with ReachTEL’s first ever national poll (UPDATE 3): Or rather, not. My guess is that Seven’s chosen to hold off on it for another night.
UPDATE 3: Channel Seven has now come good with the ReachTEL result, which has the Coalition leading 57-43 from primary votes of 31% for Labor and 50% for the Coalition. Tony Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 62-38 among men and 52-48 among women. The government’s superannuation policy is opposed by 43% and supported by 33%. Forty-six per cent support the National Broadband Network against 40% for the Coalition’s broadband policy. The sample on the poll was 1924. Full results here.
[Mr Windsor said he would have preferred the baby bonus or middle-class welfare to be targeted rather than universities, but argued higher education indexation would still be higher than it was in the past.
”I will be supportive of the arrangements that the government is putting in place,” he said.
”I see Gonski as probably the biggest revolution we’ve seen in education since I’ve been alive.”]
Barnett is showing what a turnip he is. How does he sleep at night?
Re @1399 looks like a-pac Gonski is the Oakie + Windsor presser referred to earlier. Darn time zones.
Channel Seven has now come good with the ReachTEL result: Abbott leads as preferred prime minister 62-38 among men and 52-48 among women. Primary votes: Labor 31, Coalition 46, 57-43 two-party preferred. 43% oppose super change, 33% support. 46% support NBN, 40% the Coalition’s version. The sample was a little below 2000.
And what percentage could EXPLAIN the change to the superannuation rules?
rummel
Post of the day.
BK@1404
And did they take into account Abbotts proposed changes?
http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-national-poll-april-2013
[7 News – National Poll – April 2013
Submitted by ReachTEL on Tue, 16/04/2013 – 17:53
ReachTEL conducted a five-question survey of 1,924 residents across Australia on the night of 12th April 2013.]
Full results, it was done last Friday.
So Abbott now has a clear lead as PPM and even leads among women.
Anyone getting a certain message there?
And the Coalition primary vote is actually more like 50%. The number I was going off from Channel Seven excluded the Nationals.
Nielsen 57
Galaxy 54
ER 55
Morgan 56
ReachTEL 57
Why chose a Friday night to poll people? Same ol’ criticism of reachtel. Do it over four days and nights like sensible polls do.
Not saying it skews the poll to a particular party, but it sure misses a large group of my demographic.
Finish work on Friday, look out pubs and clubs.
bemused
Current polls are depressing. I still believe its a recovery from basement due to disunity.
This is why I believe Labor can still win. I am no fool though. I know the odds are with the LNP at the moment.
That NBN question from ReachTEL is insightful when you look at this week’s EMC question on the same issue.
When you frame the question in simple terms of “more expensive, faster speed vs less expensive, slower speed”, the response is more favourable to the Coalition than the more detailed question EMC asked which was more favourable to the ALP
Darn
http://www.cio.com.au/article/459033/turnbull_nbn_could_cost_same_long-run/
Picked up by the techies and tweeted.
guytaur
[I believe Labor can still win. I am no fool though]
Saw new data from Morgan today. Land Line phones are now down to 76% of homes. I guess this is why he is switching to his unexplained multi-mode.
Mick
😆 Nice selective editing.
Diog
[rummel
Post of the day.]
No, beaten by BK
[And what percentage could EXPLAIN the change to the superannuation rules?
😆 Windsor reckons Barnyard is a cross between Katter and Joh .
guytaur
[Nice selective editing.]
apologies – it was too good to pass up.
[Saw new data from Morgan today. Land Line phones are now down to 76% of homes. I guess this is why he is switching to his unexplained multi-mode.]
Except they weren’t doing phone polling in the first place – multi-mode has replaced the face-to-face series.
Mick
The too good to pass up is why you got the 😆 response from me.
bemused,
William’s post at 1366 delivered the message.
Have you got it yet?
Thanks Lizzie. Gives the government something to work with.
[Except they weren’t doing phone polling in the first place – multi-mode has replaced the face-to-face series.]
Do we know what multi-mode means? It seems to have replaced their face, phone and SMS polls.
William,
The problem with polling mobiles is that there s no real way of establishing a priori that the phone is domiciled in a specific electorate.
Given land lines are decreasing rapidly. At what stage does current polling methodology become too unreliable an indicator for anything but broad brush numbers and trends.
Lordy lordy. After a-pac we have something from Gerard Henderson and The Sydney Institute. Topic of the day something about Menzies and WWII. Gerard and the Institute still partying like it is 1939. On a schadenfreude note he really needs to update the photo on his OO articles 🙂
Turnbull should quit keep on making a fool of himself and Abbott by continually trying to make a silk purse out of a sows ear or strawberry jam out of horse shit.
He now is being forced to come clean and makes a “prudent” statement that Fraudband will cost about the same as the fair dinkum FTTH.
It is as plain as the ears on Abbotts head that they are not answering serious questions, from a cost point of view, about the maintenance of the old copper to support their FRAUDBAND.
There are quite a few geeks asking other questions regarding the abilities of the copper and particularly in the upload area. Turnbull won’t answer the questions and to be fair to Abbott he doesn’t know what upload means because it has two syllables.
Then Turnbull rabbits on telling Australians we are mugs to invest in something when there is no return for quite some time in the future.
He spouts all this crap about false investments while at the same time he is putting his money in investments in a company that is investing in rolling out FTTH in France where it will take as long as or longer that our FTTH. Then he does the same in Spain.
Then he says
[It’s never a good idea to invest money years and years ahead before there is demand for it because you have got extra investment getting no return]
I wish somebody would have given that advice when they were rolling out the harbor Bridge and all the overland telegraph lines.
Not to be outdone he comes up with
[The current NBN plan is like a great, big, chunky piece of infrastructure that is hard to add to once it is built.]
I am sorry Turnbull but I fail to comprehend what you are talking about. You see FTTH has been rolled out to my place and I watched them do it. They just tapped in and strung a cable over to my house and terminated it on a box on the external wall.
Then the Techs came round when it was time to bring it in to the house and the two of them installed the optic cable and the Back up battery and other two boxes where my PC is, all in about one hour.
They then tested it and all of a sudden I was on the new NBN.
My understanding is that it will be easy to add on to this great big chunky piece of infrastructure because from information out there the only thing now that can be added is the fittings at the ends to allow it to go faster. The cable is there for keeps it doesn’t need to be added to or changed.
Then he comes out with
[All the telco executives I’ve talked to around the world who are actually building these networks have said to me that you would never do fibre to the premises because of a saving in maintenance cost.]
But Turnbull has no problem investing his money with Telcos around the world after being given that sage advice.
I mean if you would never do it you would never invest in it would you?
Turnbull I think you are a liar, a Charlattan and with this on top of your rainmaker friend and the Godwin Grech email fraud you are seriously not to be trusted.
http://www.cio.com.au/article/459033/turnbull_nbn_could_cost_same_long-run/?utm_medium=rss&utm_source=taxonomyfeed
Turnbull’s NBN will cost more than the ALP’s as it will eventually have to change into FTTH, so all the DSLAMS and boxes and batteries and kit will be junked.
Then it will be time to issue bonds again, will they be at 2-3% Mr Turnbull or 6-8% that your mob seem to give us.
GG
At some time someone in the world will produce a polling app for IOS and Android or whatever OS.
That will record by electorate maybe even local council ward.
The Morgan series is a combination of face-to-face, Essential style online polling and SMS polling. I don’t know if this has “replaced” their phone polling, which was always infrequent. They might continue doing it occasionally. I hope so, as Morgan’s phone polling has an excellent track record.
As to landline polling, those in the know tell me the major pollsters probably have introduced cohorts of mobile phone polling into their samples, which requires them to expensively license batches of phone numbers from commercial directory services to overcome the problem noted by GG, that mobile numbers aren’t linked to an area of residence. For whatever reason, we’re yet to see any evidence that the landline issue has made these pollsters any less accurate.
gaffy,
For years Turnbull has played this role of visionary intellect gazing out on the world in front of you and seeing new opportunities over the horizon and far away. A bit like a noble sea captain one hand inside the lapel of your coat and wearing a funny cap as you stare into the distance from the poop deck.
Unfortunately, todays revelations reveal him as just another chancer punting his money where he can make a quid.
I love this tweet. Has so many connotations!
[Robert Menzies @SirBobMenzies 15m
Gracious me. Expediency in politics is essential, but can’t Chrissy Pyne have policy depth deeper than a parking lot puddle? #auspol]
Evening all.
[Given land lines are decreasing rapidly. At what stage does current polling methodology become too unreliable an indicator for anything but broad brush numbers and trends.]
I am seriously considering getting rid of my landline. Seeing as there is no ADSL here, and my mobile phone plan allows me to make all the calls I need, I am paying unnecessarily for a landline.
The only reason I got a landline connected in the first place was because at the time of moving here the mobile coverage was pretty poor. It is vastly improved now.
[For whatever reason, we’re yet to see any evidence that the landline issue has made these pollsters any less accurate.]
I reckon it’s increasing their costs of polling though, as they have to spend more time and therefore more money reaching the demographic cohort numbers required.
guytaur,
Under the current Privacy Laws, I doubt it would ever see the light of day.
1433
I doubt British to the bootstraps Menzies would have used the Americanism “parking lot” for a car park.
78% of homes have an internet connection, EMC miss 32%
76% of homes have a fixed line phone. NP,Gal,Nei miss 34%
I am sure some clever maths can compensate but surely the polls are getting less robust.
GG
People give their address to companies every day. Even if only for delivery.
It will be a permission process signing onto the app. So privacy would not be a concern for those that sign up.
BK:
You were lamenting about Fox News earlier:
[Dana Smith Dutra @YDanasmithdutra 10h
Just deleted from @FoxNews Please retweet this asshole! pic.twitter.com/4zmE92eHn1 ]
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 1m
#ReachTEL Poll Govt new superannuation policy: Support 32.8 Oppose 42.6 #auspol]
What was the question on this one?
‘fess
[The Gillard Government last week announced changes to superannuation policy. Do you support these superannuation changes?]
Surely a have you heard of them slots in somewhere?
Yes, confessions, a lovely audience they have!
Ruawake,
Clever maths should ensure that your “missed” percentages will be 22% and 24%, not 32% and 34%.
ru,
William is still living the dream of poll methodology Nirvana.
Roy and HG would be pleased.
Ruawake
[I am sure some clever maths can compensate but surely the polls are getting less robust.]
But they certainly seem to be getting more convergent; just about every poll over the last several months, no matter what the source is 54-56/46-44, or 0.5% either side. You’d have to put some faith in that number of different trials. And of course I always like to mention the bookies who somehow internally poll many marginal and not so marginal seats and they have framed a market for LNP between 1.08 (currently) and 1.13 for months. And it costs them money if they’re wrong.
ru
[I am sure some clever maths can compensate but surely the polls are getting less robust.]
The maths needed to compensate would have to be based on some assumptions and the more assumptions needed, the greater the risk of the poll being unreliable.
There are lots of assumptions already. One is that people who answer a phone poll are representative of the general population. Another is that people tell the truth. Another is that the person polled will actually vote given that 15% don’t vote.
Irrespective of when or how all these latest polls were taken, they all show the same similar trend. They are shocking for Labor.
And the PPM is now moving more towards Abbott.
What could be the explanation?
It’ll be very hard working on Election Day with all the rude comments and refusal to take Labor HTV cards by voters.
Oh dear, I don’t know anymore.
BB
10% refuse to answer polls.
Spare a thought for the like of Cory Bernardi.Tomorrow “same sex marriage” will in all likelihood move to within 1490 kilometers of Australia. The Tasman Island lighthouse in Tasmania being the front line . 🙂
[The public gallery for the Parliamentary debating chamber is fully booked for tomorrow’s third reading of the Marriage Amendment Bill, which is expected to pass into law with overwhelming support. The gallery was full for the first and second readings, and more than 1000 supporters and opponents gathered outside Parliament buildings for the committee stage.]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10877767