Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition

A Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has the Coalition lead at 55-45, unchanged from the last Galaxy result.

GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll for tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids, conducted yesterday and today, has the Coalition’s lead unchanged at 55-45. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 32%, the Coalition is down one to 47% and the Greens are up one to 12%. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader has widened still further, from 49-34 to 53-32 – I believe this is in comparison with November, when Gillard was at the peak of her fortunes. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables here. The poll also has Tony Abbott leading Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister 37-33; 59% believing Gillard will lead Labor to the next election against 21% for Rudd; 47% still favouring an election in September against 44% for as soon as possible, compared with 55% and 38% last time (I’m guessing most of those in the election now camp aren’t on top of the half-Senate election timetable); 53% believing Labor made the wrong decision in “rejecting Kevin Rudd and endorsing Julia Gillard” against 32% who thought it the correct decision; and three further question of dubious utility.

UPDATE (25/3/13): Essential Research has Labor dropping two points on the primary vote to 33%, but the dividend goes to the Greens (up two to 11%, their best result since July last year) rather than the Coalition (steady on 47%). The Coalition’s two-party lead is steady at 54-46. Respondents were also asked how likely it was that they might change their mind, with results following the usual pattern for such questions where the more strongly supported party also has the firmer voting intention. The most popular rationale for Labor voters is that they “don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister” (35%), while Coalition voters were most likely to offer that “the Labor Party has been a poor government” (34%).

Further questions gauged support for and knowledge of media regulation, with 43% saying they were happy with existing media regulation, 29% wanting more and 10% wanting less. Twenty-nine per cent supported the federal government’s recent much-criticised proposals against 34% opposed, a fairly even result allowing for the tone of media coverage.

UPDATE 2 (25/3/13): Now Morgan chimes in earlier than usual with its fourth “multi-mode” poll combining face-to-face and internet surveys, this time scoring 3494 responses, and it shows a Labor gain from last week reversed: Labor down on the primary vote from 33% to 30.5%, the Coalition up half a point to 46.5% and the Greens steady on 10.5%. The Coalition’s two-party lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, and 54-46 to 56-44 on previous election preferences.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,499 comments on “Galaxy: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  5. [The pledge?!

    Why not just sing Kumbaya from now till Sept 14?]

    Well I can imagine Shorten, the mafia factional thugs, and their toy soldiers all sitting around the camp fire telling scary stories about The Rudd and how if they just all put their fingers in their ears and run around yelling ‘i cant hear, i cant hear’ the world will magically change…

  9. Hi BK. Delighted all went well for you and your family.

    Haven’t seen Qnay yet, but pleased to hear Nixon getting good applause. Confessions, I too think Nixon got a rough deal. Good that she has audience support in whatever is being said.

  12. Does anyone think its incredibly childish for posters on a political blog to pledge not to mention the name of the last PM?

  14. POROTI
    Brilliant he has legs like my son in law, who refused to wear a kilt when he married my daughter, wore the clan tartan in trousers

  15. “@mansillo: 952 days since Abbott has been on #qanda why so much focus on #gillard when Abbott is avoiding questioning”

  19. “@ABCnewsIntern: Kelly O’Dwyer: “[Tony Abbott] hasn’t played the gender card.” (raucous laughter.) “He hasn’t divided people.” (raucous laughter.) #qanda”

  20. Great comment from the audience re elite athletes being disempowered.

    Comes on the back of media reports about Australian netballers being paid a pittance compared to say AFL players.

  22. Dio

    [Does anyone think its incredibly childish for posters on a political blog to pledge not to mention the name of the last PM?]

    Your baiting over the last few days is rather immature and not up to your usual thoughtful standard. Honest observation.

  23. I am seriously curious how they managed to get an audience of 46% Liberal supporters in Melbourne’s far west. They’re as rare as hen’s teeth out there.

  25. Christine Nixon started the fight against police corruption and a terrible culture and paid the price, unfairly I believe for her role in the bushfire. Her successor, Simon Overland continued the good fight and also paid the price. Peter Ryan also paid a price, as did Baillieu to a lesser extent for their disgraceful role in the whole sordid affair.

  26. Diogenes @ 3262

    I think it is childish, and proof that they know Rudd is the best person to lead.

    They’ll soon have Abbott to bitch and whinge about.

  28. Note from Mark Scott. Audience stacking will cease! Vet any so called LNP supporters, especially if they display any sense of irony.

  30. “@JulianBurnside: #qanda let’s just keep @GMegalogenis, Christine Nixon and AC Grayling and turf out the others”

  32. Diogenes
    [
    Does anyone think its incredibly childish for posters on a political blog to pledge not to mention the name of the last PM?]
    It is more that a thrice tossed leader on the pie chart of attention was occupying ten times more real estate than the actual and potential Prime Ministers.

  36. confessions

    [
    Mega can talk about anything: federal politics, economics, IR, sport.

    *seriously swoons*]
    Would that be before or after Jason Clare swoons ? 🙂

  37. [I am seriously curious how they managed to get an audience of 46% Liberal supporters in Melbourne’s far west. They’re as rare as hen’s teeth out there.]

    Not rare at all. My work group of 12 has 4 staunch Libs that I can detect. All 4 are tradies in PAYE jobs so they are your typical voters who don’t know which side of their bread is buttered.

  43. Page 66 is only 15 posts short of being free of a certain former PM. Any poster game enough to upset the apple cart, may fire and brimstone rain down on you.

  46. Tom Hawkins 3249 “Who the hell is he?”

    Tom, if like your footballing namesake you are from the Geelong area maybe you should consider running in the forthcoming Lalor by-election. It could be in November/December, but the new Speaker of the House may delay it until early 2014.

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