GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.
UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.
UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research
Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.
UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll
Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.
[just looking at the Broadcasting Bills, this is the one voted on and got up 75-71
BROADCASTING LEGISLATION AMENDMENT (CONVERGENCE REVIEW AND OTHER MEASURES) BILL
Part of a package of six bills in relation to the media sector, the bill amends the…]
The reference to “Part of a package of six bills” suggests the Government is confident of all related legislation passing.
WeWantPaul @2873
What a confused argument. Phone hacking is a criminal offence but it has nothing to do with “making stuff up” – the very opposite in fact. It may be illicitly obtaining information, but is most certainly not made up.
Rummel
JWH could probably run in Lalor and get up at the moment!! (how’s that for hyperbole?? or would that be hubris??). JWH in a doggie scarf?? 😉
isnt Sinkers still breathing?
[Yawn – this from MAlcolm Farr, probably what Bemused has been alluding to all night]
I think Crean would be a disaster. He would do worse at an election than Gillard.
If they are going to change it has to be to Rudd.
That Farr piece supports Oakes’ belief that there could be a leadership spill on Thurs or Fri.
Of course it is possible that they are both referring to the same source.
kinkajou’
i doubt joyce will run, he was scared in 2010
bluepill
[JWH.. Don’t distract him.. ]
Tut tut. The poor guy is like Tony Blah. Keeping a low profile as more and more comes out pointing to him as being an unindicted war criminal.
rummel – If this gets up Tones being ‘wasted’ will be the fasted move we’ve ever seen in Australian politics.
If not, it will be a thorn in the side off the Opposition until the election anyway.
plus abbott is being blame for slipper
which will end joyce career
MB you are either going to be a hero in September or you will have to eat a mountain of humble pie. Whichever you are always a loyal optimist.
Installing Simon Crean is like admitting there is no prospect whatsoever of winning the election but some prospect of preventing an absolute slaughter on Sept 14.
[What a confused argument. Phone hacking is a criminal offence but it has nothing to do with “making stuff up” – the very opposite in fact. It may be illicitly obtaining information, but is most certainly not made up.]
My argument may have been made up of too many components for someone who reads news corp publications and listens to Abbott, but sorry some of life is more complex that the lie of the week from the conservative masters.
CTar1@2808
It’ll be an “orderly succession”.
Unbelievable. If insist on going with a third candidate, can’t they at least make a halfway credible choice like Smith or Combet? I mean Crean, for smurf’s sake! I bloody give up.
[Installing Simon Crean is like admitting there is no prospect whatsoever of winning the election but some prospect of preventing an absolute slaughter on Sept 14.]
This would be a terrible attitude to have going into an election campaign. They may as well just stick with Gillard.
JWH could try for the seat of Macquarie Island.
The rabbits are dead and even the rats wouldn’t vote for him.
[Unbelievable. If insist on going with a third candidate, can’t they at least make a halfway credible choice like Smith or Combet? I mean Crean, for smurf’s sake! I bloody give up.]
I think the only viable options are stick with Gillard or change to Rudd.
A change to anyone else would just be surrendering government.
Oh dear, LNP is fuacked & in total chaos in New England
[its a game of pass-th-bullshit. Hartcher to Oakes to Farr – all being wound up by rats McClelland, Griffin, Fitzgibbon and Mark Bishop under the auspices of Rudd.]
Looks that way to me too.
I should add there has been no money for Crean or Shorten either.
itsthevibe,
may I,
Unbelievable. If News Ltd insist on going with a third candidate, can’t they at least make a halfway credible choice like Smith or Combet? I mean Crean, for smurf’s sake! I bloody give up.
Some Rudd ratfucker is running round the gallery saying various destabalising things
– Carr/Butler switched this morning
– Crean being asked to take over
Now who could have sufficient authority and cred to make people like Hartcher, Oakes and Farr risk their reputations?
FitzGibbon? doubt it. The other Neville Nobodies? No.
alias
Do you really think that our opinions of the Murdoch press are formed due to specific columnists?
Tlbd
Bronnie will require a Crown.
Bemused:
[If I was a Liberal I would be wanting her to stay.]
If you were (sic) a Labor supporter you would be wanting her to stay.
I don’t think Crean is that much of a stretch. Why would COmbet or Shorten want to taint their careers with the coming annihilation. No, let someone like Crean be the fall guy and use those two to rebuild.
Alias,
[If the Government gets the media reform bills up tonight, it will properly be reported as a significant victory for Julia Gillard, who has rescued the mess she allowed Conroy to create.]
I don’t recall the PM being lauded by the press for passing the Clean Energy Future Act, despite difficulties; or being lauded for passing the Murray Darling Basin Plan, despite much difficulties. I don’t see the PM being lauded for still being here leading one of the most effective Governments in the Western World, despite the constant refusal on the part of the press to recognise her achievements. I don’t recall the PM being praised for bringing forward the National Conference to actually debating issues that the ALP had been to paralysed to discuss before, and in fact were banned from doing so under the previous leader. I do recall the press, on Australia winning a seat on the Security Council, accusing Gillard of not acknowledging the work of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. She did. Was she given any credit? No. Did she demand any? No. Yet the press portrays her as “selfish” for not not collapsing before their narcisism.
I don’t recall any of these journalists you believe so strongly in the professionalism of being even the slightest bit correct on ALP leadership or indeed the daily workings of the Government. Just today we saw wall to wall drivel of the media reforms being “doomed to failure”. A third of it has already passed before the day is even out, and it seems that most of it will get through anyway. It will be spun as a bad thing, as such things always are. I am looking at things as they have happened. Where are you looking at it from to come to such a demonstrably unsupportable load of drivel.
The picture that emerges is that nobody really knows how this is going to end. There are too many variables and too many competing agendas. That’s why the betting markets on the leadership are not moving; the wheel is in spin. No one seems to have enough authority to take charge, to steer the ship in one direction, and the only chap capable of doing that – Rudd – has vowed not to do so. Kind of fascinating really.
bluepill@2794
There’s derangement going on all right, but I wouldn’t be looking at the ALP. Sounds like News have had a look around, having exhausted everyone’s credulity with Rudd, then Shorten, then Rudd again, and thought to themselves, “Who else can we put forward?”
[Unbelievable. If News Ltd insist on going with a third candidate, can’t they at least make a halfway credible choice like Smith or Combet? I mean Crean, for smurf’s sake! I bloody give up.]
It is about the media stuff. They obviously can’t write anything sensible about why such light media regulation is a bad thing, they are doing a ‘look over there’.
There is no reason to suggest they wouldn’t just make stuff up, half of the stuff in news corp every day is just made up.
Just dropped in to check whether Abbott is still Liberal leader. Tick. Liberals have yet to shift their rotten apple. Tick.
Oh well. Maybe tomorrow?
Good night all.
Tonight’s short piece by Malcolm Farr on Simon Crean being promoted as leader is most unlike the usual articles he writes for news.com.au.
It is almost as if he has been instructed to write something to keep the story rolling along in the media.
media bills that they said would not pass are passing.
torbay resigns in mysterious circumstances
so news leads with a leadershit story, look over there!
And also this, shades of now,what about my little mate.
AN ACCUSATION that a newspaper editor offered to double his funding of The Australian Press Council if it agreed not to rule against him has been revealed for what it was – a joke.
Newspaper bosses have been repeatedly challenged with the accusation from Labor Senator Doug Cameron of an apparently corrupt offer during two days of Senate Committee hearings into proposed media laws this week.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/scotch-and-dry-senator-failed-to-get-the-joke/story-fncynjr2-1226600953147#ixzz2NyxbH7V8
Ok.. honesty how.
How many here on PB can honestly say that Conroy (and by extension/leadership responsibility), Gillard, have handled this week’s Media proposals well politically?
Hand on heart now, diehards.
According to SportsBet Rudd has shortened today into $1.45
Rummel you are in sparkling form tonight (genuinely v good) but # 2781 is just a bit too silly. As the late Graham Chapman was wont to say of course.
JWH as PIMA on the other hand is utterly hilarious!
Labor still finding ways to be a train wreck it seems.
Yeh go to Crean, that would be fabulous. Go to someone with no personality at all so much so it will look like Labor has no leader.
And what will the public do I wonder? Think to themselves WTF are Labor doing treating the public like crap by continuing to ignore them. Look forward to the back lash of that.
But must admit it would be a good opportunity to leave Labor to create a Center Left party in Aust politics, the climate is right for it to do well.
I’ve got a better idea than recycling a leader who bd everyone to death even tho he’s a beaut bloke.
Tell Kev to sit on the cross benches.
Some people on this site smell a made up shit sandwich prepared and presented by the media and immediately swallow it whole. Same contents as have been on the menu for many months. Is it enjoyable, more tomorrow?
Bugler/Tim
[I don’t recall the PM being lauded by the press for passing the Clean Energy Future Act, despite difficulties; or being lauded for passing the Murray Darling Basin Plan, despite much difficulties. I don’t see the PM being lauded for still being here leading one of the most effective Governments in the Western World, despite the constant refusal on the part of the press to recognise her achievements. I don’t recall the PM being praised for bringing forward the National Conference to actually debating issues that the ALP had been to paralysed to discuss before, and in fact were banned from doing so under the previous leader. I do recall the press, on Australia winning a seat on the Security Council, accusing Gillard of not acknowledging the work of Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister and Foreign Minister. She did. Was she given any credit? No. Did she demand any? No. Yet the press portrays her as “selfish” for not not collapsing before their narcisism.
I don’t recall any of these journalists you believe so strongly in the professionalism of being even the slightest bit correct on ALP leadership or indeed the daily workings of the Government. Just today we saw wall to wall drivel of the media reforms being “doomed to failure”. A third of it has already passed before the day is even out, and it seems that most of it will get through anyway. It will be spun as a bad thing, as such things always are. I am looking at things as they have happened. Where are you looking at it from to come to such a demonstrably unsupportable load of drivel.]
KOO KOO! What’s it like in your parallel universe? In this one, Gillard’s is a poor government.
rummel@2781
Oh that will really help, won’t it?
What genius is behind that?
Psephos,
[SENIOR Murdoch press figures tonight are pushing a “Simon Crean to take over” story so as to continue damaging the Labor government as much as they can.]
or alternatively.
“SENIOR Press figures are desperately reconfiguring their attack on the Gillard Government after their day of gloating has been proven to be completely false, and being caught lying to the public. Chaos has enveloped the media resulting in long, demented monologues from media proprietors and journalists running around like headless chooks because they fear their heads may be lost in their arses forever.”
If only they listened to Gillard, Rudd and Crean, and they wouldn’t be in this mess.
Bd was meant to be ‘bored’.
Bugler 2827 Well bloody said!
bluepill
[How many here on PB can honestly say that Conroy (and by extension/leadership responsibility), Gillard, have handled this week’s Media proposals well politically?]
So far 2-nil to the good guys.
[Tonight’s short piece by Malcolm Farr on Simon Crean being promoted as leader is most unlike the usual articles he writes for news.com.au.
It is almost as if he has been instructed to write something to keep the story rolling along in the media.]
That, or maybe there’s something to it.
[citizen
Posted Tuesday, March 19, 2013 at 9:59 pm | PERMALINK
Tonight’s short piece by Malcolm Farr on Simon Crean being promoted as leader is most unlike the usual articles he writes for news.com.au.
It is almost as if he has been instructed to write something to keep the story rolling along in the media.]
you may be on the money here Citizen
And Laurie Oakes demeanor on Ch9 was very cagy, and he immediately came out and tweeted that he wasn’t predicting anything. Possibly told to say as well?
And Hartcher, well he is pin-striped-suit for rent.
Media bosses motto “stuff us around with these media laws Gillard, and we will show you what happens when we flex our muscles”
Nemspy@2826
Wait a minute.. isn’t Gillard stepping down tomorrow for Shorten after getting the tap on the shoulder? Or was that Rudd challenging this Friday? These stories change as quickly as they’re denied.
[SENIOR Labor figures tonight are pushing Simon Crean to take over and end the damaging Julia Gillard-Kevin Rudd leadership impasse.]
In what way is ‘leadershi#’ an impasse? It isn’t, unless one accepts the Murdochratic meme. There is no deadlock or stalemate between Rudd and Gillard. There’s not even a contest. Rudd says so himself. It was and is over in all but Murdoch-world.
This is Murdoch cranking it up to conjure something. It really is utterly shameful.
alias @ 2828
Good post, mate.
Talk of Crean (if true) would have to be a diversion.
Nice bloke, and all those cliches, but yesterday’s man.
It’s Rudd or Gillard, or I’ll find it hard to work for the party.