Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.

UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.

UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research

Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.

UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll

Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,211 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Dedalus

    Yes your theory works but it is a two edged sword

    In Qld it worked oh yes it worked. All the people went with the trend. Labor’s going out so we will join them.

    The result (not decimation cos that is just one in 10) more octomation) to leave just seven seats.

  2. Dedalus

    I suspect you are right and made the point yesterday that PBer’s like benused vent their anger re Gillard v Rudd here but will, when all is said and done, vote Labor in the end. It is not too far a stretch to assume that other disaffected Labor voters are doing the same thing with the polls and will vote Labor on Sep 14 too.
    Whether this is measurable at 2% or indeed already accounted for by the process, I am unsure… but it does seem a logical assumption.

  3. i wil back this source again

    it was right about torbay . months and months

    the latest is , abbott is defiantly gone as leader once the new media reforms get the go ahead

  4. Abbott is not going anywhere but to the Prime Ministership on September 14. That is unless Rudd is put back into his original job and even then the chances are not good. Talk of Abbott being rolled are ridiculous.

  5. People keep saying the 55+ all vote LNP so forget them however at 33% they are the strongest group supporting Labor. They are also smart enought to know voting Greens is a wasted vote. So by all means Labor can attack the oldies but they do so at their destruction.

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