Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.

UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.

UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research

Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.

UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll

Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,211 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Murdoch is hardly desperate.

    You are no doubt his mere servant. Does that make you proud of yourself? Can you not find something more worthwhile to do with your life?

    On this anniversary of our very recent history of contribution to disgraceful waste of human life, hope and endeavour, Fox Holes works to destroy Australian democracy.

    And you are helping. Be ashamed.

  2. A big warm hello from the ghoul hours to the normal people who post during the day. Especially those who bother to scroll through and see if they missed anything in the wee hours. And to the other ghouls of course.

    So Torbay gawn. Arfur S currently looking very Minder-like. Obeid. Dots. Join.

    Jolyon, would you sell insurance to these guys?

  3. [So Torbay gawn. Arfur S currently looking very Minder-like. Obeid. Dots. Join.]

    Hilarious isn’t it.

    If this develops, AND they get the media stuff through, and we get to the end of the week with no leadersh#t, the Fibs and the media are goingto be looking a bit sick. Unicorn time obviously.

  4. Ten years since the Iraq war.

    I lost the plot a bit that day and burned all bridges I had with liberal parliamentarians sending abusive emails to those I knew mainly re: their preparedness to kill many innocents for no likely good outcome.

    Sadly it didn’t do anything to stop the needless deaths.

  5. Equally funny how they have retreated in the face of another slight adversary.

    I only stayed up to offer a little contest.

    Evil little creatures.

    Sleep time now.

  6. Despite my criticism of the general intelligence level of twitter, one person was noting that it might be a good outcome for limitd news to buy a certain possible white elephant, considering the NBN rollout and increased international capacity and the ubiquity of inter tube viewing on demand.

  7. Whoops.

    Should not have triggered Norwester’s masters to a faux conscience.

    Before I do go, loved it that Cosgrove, Howard’s supplicant of the day, was repudiating his and Australia’s role in the useless war.

  8. Not sure where you are coming from CW.

    I stand by what I said earlier. I reckon that News Ltd is looking desperate.

    The Labor leadership speculation has been their beat up from the start. News Ltd has made it an endless story. It is written about every day so it must be true. Such is their power.

    The worst thing for Labor backbenchers to do would be to fall for this crap.

  9. Good morning Dawn Partollers.

    ANNOUNCEMENT: This service may be a little spotty over the next several days as the chaos of my daughter’s impending weddinf descend upon the BK household. I will do my best, though.

    It’s hard to disagree with this article.
    Or this one.
    I hope they throw the books at these pricks.
    This is hardly surpising. I just hope it gets up.
    This has sneaked in under the radar.
    Alan Moir brings Arfur out for a run.
    David Pope with a clever swipe at the intrduction of the media legislation.
    And David Rowe with hotel scene.

  10. Poor Simon Cream took the fall the first time. Why would he put himself forward to do the same again. He’s a nice bloke and doesn’t deserve that.

  11. I suppose this hasn’t been publicised much because it would stir up all the AS haters. “Quiet diplomacy”. In a less hysterical period Houston would be supported.
    [But Mr Houston said that, if the comparison was with the number of arrivals just before Christmas, there was a ”pleasing trend”, largely because increased co-operation had stemmed the flow of arrivals from Sri Lanka.
    He said he was seeking to build on the work of the expert panel he chaired last year: ”I feel – and I think just about everybody feels – that a regional approach is the only way we are going to come to grips with what is truly a wicked problem of major proportions.”]
    Read more:

  12. Good morning, Dawn Patrol!

    Good graphic in The Guardian on new UK media Royal Charter’s winners & losers: Press regulation deal: your guide to the issues, the winners and the losers. Main winners – Labour & LibDems, and “The Victims” of NewsIntel’s hacking, intimidation & corruption of politics & police.

    Nice one, Lab & LibDems!

    I see that – at least according to the ABC, which usually follows NewsLtd – states … as in “The Coalition used Question Time to pressure the Government over their media reforms”; although, after seeing recorded QT, I’d have deleted “pressure etc …” and substituted “Tried to slap the PM’s wrist with a limp lettuce leaf, but failed that too!”:

    [Prime Minister Julia Gillard has taken charge of negotiations with key crossbench MPs, most of whom have been critical of the measures and the tight timeframe given to pass the bills.]

  13. In the past 24 hours I have not been paying much attention but have nonetheless heard media suggestions of Gillard, Rudd, Shorten, Crean and evrn Bob Carr being PM at some point before the election!

    Something seems to be going on, but what?

    Thsnks to Mark Lathsm, know that Caucus nowadays is divided into 15-20 sub factions determined by union affiliation/State and ideological stance (ie, socialist or non-socialist).

    Perhaps the Rudd camp got a taste from a couple of important Gillard-aligned sub-factions this week. So they’re excited and are running around thr Gallery spreading rumours looking to shake loose some more. Some nervous nellies don’t want to be left on the wrong side of the line if there is a groundswell shift to Rudd, but they also don’t want to jump too early in case Rudd doesn’t have the numbers

    And, I strongly suspect that Rudd doesn’t have thr numbers because, well, he’s Rudd. So Cresn might be a stalking horse put out tgere by Rudd supporters (possibly without Crean’s agreement) to destabilize things further).

    I can guess who are the people doing the stirring on behalf of Rudd. It’s a bit sad really and has more to do with old factional hatreds than the good of thr Party.

  14. [David Kirkpatrick ‏@daveyk317
    Surely this is on the front page of #TheSmearStralian or is it #LEADERSHIT? Abbott off to court for fraud @australian ]

    Anyone seen any mention of this in the MSM? Or is Tony still being protected? Thomson and Slipper weren’t.

  15. [Latika Bourke ‏@latikambourke
    Independent Andrew Wilkie on the Govt’s media reforms ‘I’m not sure what’s on the table, I think its been pretty shoddy.’]

    I sometimes wonder about Wilkie’s level of understanding. Shouldn’t he try to find out things for himself?

  16. izatso? Mu is an excellent state to be in: a state of being both present and absent in which any seeming paradox is unravelled by a beam of higher consciousness. Alas, I am not there right now, but posters like you and Meguire Bob are helping me to get there. Thanks

  17. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane
    watching middle-aged white male journos and editors calling for middle-aged white male pollies to replace a female PM. reassuring.]

  18. After UK press Royal Charter, The Independent’s Will Gore asks Leveson: Who knows what might pop up next.

    Where the trigger for reform was Murdoch papers’ gross & illegal intrusion into private lives of “ordinary” victims of crime (rather than Murdoch’s normal “Regime control & change” obsession) including with collusion of bribed police, the last paragraphs encapsulate what “most ordinary people want” in the UK”

    [But fundamentally, what most ordinary people probably want above all is a simple, effective mechanism through which they can raise complaints and obtain reasonable redress. Some standards-setting and investigations? Great. A few real teeth? Lovely. Ideally, with the political manoeuvring out of the way, the development of just such a system ought to be the next step, with a new regulator ready to open its doors in the summer.

    As to what really will happen next, much can be achieved if the newspaper and magazine industry is positive and united. If fractures open up, Bill Beaumont’s prediction for the future will be as good as anyone’s.]

  19. Gee @TurnbullMalcolm – i prefer the “backroom grubby deal” anytime between the elected Govt & the Indies rather than the unelected #MSM

  20. Meher Baba

    All the mention of so many names in the leadershit is to disguise the fact that Janelle Saffon will be the successful challenger.

    Trust me. I have reported that rumour with 100% accuracy. So it must be true.

    I will never again comment anywhere to anyone about anything if it’s not true.

    You can rest easy and be assured that when I report rumours I do so with great authority. I always carefully examine the rumour first to see if I agree, and if I do it must be correct. You can rely on me just as much as you can rely on Bemused and Player One’s predictions.

    We are equally skilled clairvoyants and we all have the same extremely high qualifications in that department.

  21. Izatso?@3182.

    I wish I was “sooo far up there”. If I didn’t have to do some work today, I’d ask you to pass me over your stash so I could roll myself one too. Bum Shankar.

  22. What time is the first expected hissy fit by the Poodle today.

    Game kicks off at 9am.

    I’m calling first at 9.45am.

    Should be another fun filled day. QT will be a “must watch”

  23. What a load of tosh journos inhabit the ABC.

    Over the past days we have seen any government member interviewed about anything bombarded with leadershit questions, with follow-up question after follow-up question to the point of outright rudeness.

    But this morning they ask Truzzzzzzz why Sorbet is gorn and he says, as National Leader about his candidate in a hi profile seat they would love to win (to prove Windsor really is a traitor to NE for supporting JG) that he doesn’t know.

    And this effing answer is accepted with no follow-up.

    So come on down all you PB wankers who constantly say we JG supporters beat up the “media is unfair” issue. Explain that little piece of objective, competent and fair “journalism”.

  24. psyclaw. Saffon, you say? Ah, it makes sense at last. She’s certainly the member for a part of Australia that appeals strongly to people like me who would like to achieve a higher consciousness without the need to use hydroponics.

    I think it would all make even more sense to me if I could get my hands on some of izatso’s stash.

  25. [Caroline Overington ‏@overingtonc 4m
    Both Gillard and Rudd have failed to show at a breakfast at Parliament House this morning which either means something or nothing]
    No comment!

  26. Meher

    “She’s certainly the member for a part of Australia that appeals strongly to people like me who would like to achieve a higher consciousness without the need to use hydroponics.”

    Quite so. I believe superb quality garden shrubs are available around Kyogle, and very reasonably priced. (Ms Saffon has many skilled agriculturalist constituents behind her push.)

    There are one or two Abbotteers who, judging by their behaviour in recent days, already know this. Mail order must be available.

  27. psyclaw

    [that he doesn’t know.

    And this effing answer is accepted with no follow-up.
    Mind you Truzzzz knowing nothing would not be considered unusual 😉

  28. Without exception, the media hacks have predicted that the main one of the six media bills, the one related to the public interest advocate, won’t pass the HR.

    Don’t bet on it.

    It’s passing is still well possible.

    ALP needs 4 cross-bench votes. Slipper seems likely. Katter has proposed a 3-member committee in place of a single advocate. Gillard has agreed to this. Therefore: Katter is a possible supporter.

    Wilkie is a wheeler-dealer. His deal is whistle-blower legislation. There should be no problem with the government agreeing to that. It’s fair policy. Put down Wilkie as a possibility.

    That leaves Windsor and Oakeshott, and Thomson.

    Oakeshott is probably a no. Windsor, I believe, will go along with the bill if it includes some slight modification, and a few of the other x-benchers also agree. As outlined above, both of these conditions could well be met.

    That leaves Thomson. With a possible 74-74 locked in, would Abbott accept a “tainted” vote? If so, Abbott is exposed as a fraud. If not, the bill goes through.

    Bottom line: don’t be surprised if this key bill in the package goes either way. It’s defeat is certainly no fait accompli.

  29. After watching QT several times lately I am of the opinion that any MP ejected from Parliament under Sec. 94A (?) or for any other similar reason should forfeit that day’s salary and allowances so they get no money at all for that whole day.

    I see no reason for financially supporting those whose behaviour prevents them from doing what we pay them for – representing us.

    Behaviour would surely improve.

  30. An elected Govt negotiates with elected MPs for new Media Law that the Opposition & #MSM dont like, now it’s a threat to democracy – amazing

  31. There’s a new thread.

    I tell you this because William doesn’t… (and I’m getting confused switching between the two…)

  32. Are the polls reliable? I say no.

    I ran a plausible theory about this a few days ago and got no reply. I’d like Kevin Bonham to comment.

    In summary, I’m proposing that at least 2% of labor respondents are indicating coalition voting intention because they believe that bad polling will destabilise the Labor leadership to the extent that their favoured man, Rudd, will be reinstalled.

    2% of such repondents would equate to a 2% difference from a normal polling result. (eg 500-500 would switch to 490-510)

    After all, it’s common sense, and widely accepted, that liberal voters strongly reporting that Rudd would improve Labor’s polling is largely a result of these Liberal voters attempting to “stir the pot” to Labor’s disadvantage.

    I believe that to a smaller extent, the same phenomenon applies to Labor respondents. And there is a similar reason for both types of voters to be doing this – they believe they’re doing their party a service!

    It may seem a little bizarre, but actually it’s quite understandable. Some voters feel so disenfranchised that they see this Machiavellian tactic as a way of exerting some influence in the political process. And the weird thing is – they are right! Their mischevious poll-responding does indeed have a very big effect on the political process. Just look at the overall response to these “polls” to see how big is the effect.

    But – and here is the real cause for an optimistic reality check – provided the ALP leadership doesn’t allow itself to be spooked (no certainty there!), this polling bias will wash through and be rinsed out as the actual election draws close. Then policy fundamentals should assert themselves as they normally would.

    There’s also a sneaky bonus built in to this universe of possibilities – the distinct possibility that some Rudd-Gillard reconciliation will flip the polls the other way. Then the liberals will have to end up relying on policy fundamentals – and good luck with that one!

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