Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month.

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.

UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.

UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.

UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research

Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.

UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll

Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,211 comments on “Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 63 of 65
1 62 63 64 65
  1. Not to mention probably suffer a nasty accident on a work site, so true ALP supporters can strike in support of improved working conditions.

    It’s like this place is full of full on scabs!

  2. [The electorate will get bored of that in about fifteen seconds.]
    It’s not about the attack per se KB its the ability to deflect an anti government agenda and get policy to the front page.

  3. Just be thankful SS that the Abbott twitter bots haven’t discovered this site. I’m amazed that they haven’t, despite their stupidity. Solidarity against Abbott is one thing that is here in spades.

  4. This blog is accessible to everyone SS. It just happens that three word slogans don’t really cut it here. Speaking of which, where is Natalie D tonight? Gee, I wonder?

  5. What’s an Abbott twitter bot? Anything that has solidarity against abbot is ok by me. Anything that doesn’t unite behind the ALP isn’t.

  6. Twitter is full of them. Quite funny, they think they have influence. Shhh, don’t tell them they don’t. They’re pretty nasty.

  7. I’m don’t like three word slogans. Far too many words.
    The ALP is all about 5 syllables- no more, no less.

    We stand for nothing if not these 5 syllables. We might not make much sense individually, we might not make much sense jostling for the front, but organised, we can get our shite together and become coherent and form a word. Solidarilhy!

  8. I’m a green. That’s why everyone has left. They aren’t interested in debating the leadership, it’s been going on for so long. Suffice to say that choosing the more popular leader will give you the solidarity you desire. I also predict that it will prove how suspicious Australians are of corporate media. It will also catch the libturds with their pants down as they will be stuck with [monkey] .

  9. It’s quite simple. The party of the people as you describe got nowhere with unionists in charge post Hawke. Unionists generally don’t specialise in reading balance sheets or profit and loss documents, or connecting with non union Australians on many other issues. I am not trying to demonise unions, suffice to say that their focus is narrow. Rudd and Tanner were seen as having a different pedigree. Remember how reluctant the ALP were to put Rudd in charge? The way I see it, certain sections that excluded the intellectual side of the ALP couldn’t wait to get rid of him.

  10. I see you aren’t true ALP supporters. You know that Julia will lead us into the light despite the polls. The party knows it and you need to get behind the AWU and the rest of the unions. They are our future.

  11. I can tell you that there are very few LNP posters here. Modlib (obviously), Glenn, and a few others including a few trolls, maybe shows on, any that I have missed CW?

  12. Consider how I see you SS. For all I know, you are a lib plant. It would be funny though, I am a pretty independent thinker. I have heard no argument that would change my vote, even though I would like to give the ALP a kick up the bum.

  13. It’s not a good time to go through all the beefs I have with this government. I have just watched one bad poll after another that I more or less predicted here at the time the leadership team was changed back in 2010. That was when I started posting here. I don’t come here often, I say what I need to and then go on my merry way. Arguing with ALP hacks is dispiriting.

  14. Dont worry about it Radguy. The parliamentary ALP is far more pragmatist than the PBers.

    Forces are moving.

    At least Rudd knew when the gig was up.

  15. Lefty – That’s true. I think that maybe waiting for the last minute might prove to be a winning tactic. There’s not a lot of time for them to dig up the dirt. Even better if Windsor forces an election, as there would be no prospects for the opposition to change leaders. Abbott vs Rudd is the contest they dread.

  16. Even if it was, is irony banned here Mr Bowe?
    Have you applied for ‘the’ or one of ‘the’ PIMA positions? You seem to have the credentials required.

  17. @Auspol_Ebooks: I chuckled so we’re protecting our wonderful things might be any view! Old men is interesting mantra – what F1 #auspol

    Ah twitter, where proof reading is too hard for even a few words.

  18. It has been mooted. A Ruddstorm. Could arse-end the Tories before they knew what hit them.

    The Tories got nothing. The PBers are 100% right about that much.

    Gillard cant bring the thunder though. Thats where theyre barking up the wrong tree.

    Its pretty simple: crash through or crash with the man the punters elected in 2007. End this NSWitis with a reprise.

    I swear: the punters cant wait to punch the MSM right in the smacker, but they wont cop a ring-in to do it. Not their style.

    LE out. Night all.

  19. News Limited is looking very desperate. If things go more pear shaped for them in UK or USA Rupe will need a friendly hidey hole. People need to wake up as to what this is all about.

    Crean! Latest BS from Murdoch camp. Who will they rumour about next?

    Meanwhile in parliament it is Labor 2 News/LNP 0 with 4 still in play.

  20. Silas Sybilants,

    I think Mr Bowe is suggesting that repetitive irony, employed for the purpose of trolling, might get you banned.

    As your less than amusing posts don’t seem to add much to the debate I shouldn’t mind terribly if that happened.

  21. SS, I think twitter might be a better place for you. Without overstating it, your presumption about the collective intelligence here is way off the mark.

Comments Page 63 of 65
1 62 63 64 65

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *