GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.
UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.
UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research
Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.
UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll
Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.
CC – I’m sure if you asked greens members, they would be right behind you on it unanimously. Do you think that “dig it up and chop it down” Howes and his mates would be?
Greens are spread a bit thin, by all means get behind them. They can’t be expected to persue every environmental problem despite giving more f**ks about them than the ALP or LNP. Besides, I don’t think West Australians generally have any interest in looking after the environment or the rest of Australia and don’t seem to be interested in sharing unless their economy is in trouble.
[There is a neat rumour that some Abbott supporters deliberately voted for Turnbull in the first ballot in order to eliminate Hockey. I don’t know if it’s true or not!]
Didn’t that come from an interview with Nick Minchin??
[and don’t seem to be interested in sharing unless their economy is in trouble.]
We share Mesma with the rest of the country dont we??
Thanks Kevin. Interesting.
CTar1 @3049 – the height advantage is the straight right or head butt at crotch level.
Alias
Disunity is death. Just because there have been years of poll downs doesn’t mean that there won’t be years of polls up. It shouldn’t be long now before the rest of the population realise what we as a party offer. We either rise from bumping along the bottom, which we have been or sink into the mud because despite the best efforts of some in the party to drag Julia down, rock bottom seems to be about 44% which isn’t bad considering.
Onward and upward comrades!
imacca@3052
I certainly remember seeing VEXNEWS claiming Minchin had orchestrated it but I have never seen an interview where Minchin admitted the deed.
The logic to it would have been that while Abbott just managed to beat Turnbull by a vote, Hockey would have beaten Abbott on the second ballot. And Turnbull’s showing on the first ballot was stronger than expected.
Well well, a little birdy tells me the only thing currently stopping a challenge is that JG will fight it.
Numbers arent the biggest problem.
Lets just say VIC ALP not nearly as impressed with JG as PBers are.
Make of that what you will. Its a big country I guess.
Radguy @3051 – I want our own Greenies so I can pay out on them.
[After caucus criticism of the handling of the media laws, Labor last night secured the support of Labor cum independent MP Craig Thomson, who had cast doubt on the reforms on Monday. Mr Thomson emerged as a key figure late yesterday by switching camps to support an amended regulator.
Labor is also understood to have the support of Greens deputy leader Adam Bandt and independents Tony Windsor, Bob Katter and Peter Slipper to ensure a lower house majority when debate on the changes resumes today.]
Even Slipper is onboard for the media reforms!
I think he is looking at this as a little f’ you to the Murdoch press that tried to ruin his career as he eases his way out of parliament.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillard-battles-to-salvage-media-laws-as-independents-swing-behind-regulator/story-fn59niix-1226601072101
Crank
[head butt at crotch level.]
I scored one of those on Sunday.
A big hug attempt.
[Well well, a little birdy tells me the only thing currently stopping a challenge is that JG will fight it.
Numbers arent the biggest problem.
Lets just say VIC ALP not nearly as impressed with JG as PBers are.]
I reckon that rogue Newspoll from last week saved her.
If that was a 54/46 she would’ve been gone by now.
@lefty e/3058
More rumors doesn’t give me confidence.
I’m not sure what you mean CC, your comment is oblique.
Can write it more precisely than a typical tweet?
Sorry, pot and kettle, juggling a hungry and wriggly 8 month old and constantly correcting iPad auto type.
Bob Carr tweets from the US, late at night in Oz:
[Bob Carr @bobjcarr 1h
Aust 6th largest donor to Syrian refugees. Will not provide arms to rebels – comments on #Lateline pic.twitter.com/IV6xrJKBnJ ]
imaca @3053 and having 10% of national population, about 50% of the land mass, the longest coast and producing about 46% of exports, WA really isn’t pulling it’s weight, is it.
If Julia is deposed then she has enough dirt and gumption to destroy the party which is why everyone should stick by her. Think of the children people!
CTar1 @3061 The welcome home flying hug is a high risk activity.
Should make a good Outside Centre.
I can’t believe how many disloyal so-called ALP people are here. Back your party and their decisions and stop undermining them!
Humans are a strange species which I know I will never understand
I knew Joel, not well but socially.
He has just been sentenced to 14 years in the brutal Qld prison system where he is likely to be destroyed.
[http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/from-scavenging-for-food-to-a-multimilliondollar-lifestyle-built-on-fraud-20130319-2gd64.html]
He was a gentle man and very generous and kind but obviously a “walter mitty” character, living in his own world.
I am not defending his fraud but I am sure it was driven by psychological problems and I shudder to think what will happen to him in a Qld prison.
He got 14 years!!!
compare this with the terrible rape of a young girl (admittedly in the USofA) and the culprits (also admittedly from better off families and therefor I know must be given all leniency) got one year!!!!
http://news.insing.com/tabloid/teen-footballers-convicted-rape-case/id-a26f3f00
If the state/territory elections we’ve seen around the country in recent years are any guide, then the Greens should expect to lose Senators in the forthcoming federal election. The odious SHY springs to mind as one.
Christine Milne has clearly failed to unite mainstream voters behind the party, and is in danger of leading a party comprised solely of hard line, niche issue voters rather than a broad cross section of the community.
The Greens have lost ground and/or seats at every single state/territory election since the federal election. Ominous signs for them.
3067
Australia is 7,692,024 km2.
WA is 2,645,615 km2.
That is just under a third (excluding the Australian Antarctic Territory)
Silas – That strategy has proved a failure, unless you consider success is a vote best case around 35%. I haven’t been here for a while, I don’t have the time to constantly point out how this blind “solidarity” is not going to stop Abbott winning. Time is short.
[More rumors doesn’t give me confidence.]
Me either Zoidlord. My source is well connected, but only in VIC. Doesnt know what going to happen, but does know feelings of disatisfaction are no longer limited to usual suspects.
Thanks Tom – I was judging it by eye.
How do the other States Rank by percentage for sqm, coast line length and exports?
Should it be that the media bills are passed it will be a huge victory for Gillard. Not only in her ability to find a way through but in successfully baiting the media to voluntarily trash whatever credibility they had left. Change leader and all this will go to waste as the meter starts again.
Seriously folks this will be a major shift. If the bills pass, Labor can legitimately go on to attack the media right the way through to the election and turn it into an electoral plus.
I’m beginning to think the (inexplicable) deadline was orchestrated to achieve exactly that.
Yes SR. It’s a joke. Also a joke that Anonymous have received no credit for cracking the case wide open. The Stupidville cops and prosecutors certainly weren’t going to do it.
Crank
The grab you by the legs and donk bit is something I’ll have to learn to deal with again.
Maybe she can do Netball.
3071
The case in Ohio involved minors, who presumably are first time offenders(as far as the law is concerned), being tried as minors.
Your acquaintance is, from the history provided, an adult, with a criminal history.
This explains a large part of the difference.
3076
I approximated a third by eye. You need your eyes checked.
I think the only think for it is a unity ticket.
Rudd, Gillard, Crean, Shorten as co-PMs. Bring the ALP together and show a unified front. Raise hands joined together as one in front of the cheers of thousands of the faithful.
Lets rewind the clock to 2010 and this time avoid that pointless, most stupid self destructive act of Labor. The precious little faction bosses swallow their sh*t sandwiches for a little while longer and let democracy work for a little while.
Rudd for two or three terms…then the next cab off the rank as his flame diminishes.
Abbott nowhere, and contemplating making Barnaby LOTO.
But no….those faceless morons… the destroyers.
Fess, the GWV numbers on asylum seeker doxing shows that we really are a dim country.
I won’t be changing my vote – and I’m on the entrepreneurial side of the greens.
It’s a philosophy that goes against base tribal instincts.
[Seriously folks this will be a major shift. If the bills pass, Labor can legitimately go on to attack the media right the way through to the election and turn it into an electoral plus.
I’m beginning to think the (inexplicable) deadline was orchestrated to achieve exactly that.]
Yup, it will be, IF they can get the PIMA bill through. Much egg (rotten and festering) on many journo’s faces, and the Fibs left going, wot, how, whaaaaaa.
I think you will find that Crank is correct Tom. The land mass of WA is the biggest and the coast line is the longest of all states, although the 50% land mass was a bit of stretch.
[The Greens have lost ground and/or seats at every single state/territory election since the federal election. Ominous signs for them.]
Not quite, GRNs had a swing *to* them at most recent NSW and Vic state elections, both since the Federal election.
IN SA and TAs the GRNs also received swings to them, though this was March 2010, before the 2010 Federal election, so we dont know whether your proposition is true there.
Its true of ACT and WA, and also true – but rather insignficantly so – in QLD (-0.8%) and NT (-1.0%).
I think the GRNS will suffer a Federal post Brown hit, but not by too much. Probably drop to 9-10%, down from 11.75%.
SS – ALP already tried Cerberus leadership. That’s what got us here.
Thomas.Paine
Don’t despair! Julia will bring us victory, all it requires is solidarity. Solidarity brother!
3086
I am not contesting that it is the biggest or the longest cost line.
I thought that 50% of the land was a stretch and so I looked it up on Wikipedia.
[Don’t despair! Julia will bring us victory, all it requires is solidarity. Solidarity brother!]
Yours etc,
Concerned, of Sans Souci.
WTF happened to “Take it or leave it”?
Does this mean we can’t count on 14 Sep as the election date?
What other commitments is Gillard going to brea . . . oh . .
Gecko@3077
The electorate will get bored of that in about fifteen seconds.
It will be interesting to see the GST fight between WA and QLD. QLD produces more things for us using a much more expansive road network that is constantly under attack from the weather.
Gillard is dumb for not offering Rudd a ministry late last year or early this year.
Crank – It’s called politics.
The election will happen as said.
Imacca
[…All efforts at regulation, the original intent of the package, were being negotiated and there were signs on Tuesday night that a compromise had been struck with crossbenchers on a Public Interest Media Advocate, and on a public interest test on ownership, in what would be a victory for Ms Gillard.]
http://t.co/IWX6nfUMLf
SS – Trying to convince TP is very much barking up the wrong tree. He gets 20/10 for persistence, he has been posting those arguments for 2.5 years now and counting. As usual, I agree with him.
The ALP has always had its haters. Never before has it had so many from the inside.
Is this blog just filled with liberal stooges pretending to be ALP supporters? I think so! No way any ALP supporters I know could be so disloyal. They would be too embarrassed.
@ShowsON/3095
Didn’t Labor try that with Rudd as FM? Continued problems continued…?