GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.
UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.
UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research
Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.
UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll
Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.
Compat (Tabloid) Crank
[Swamprat – how come Woodside gets their own Greenies at James Price Point but for some reason the Ashburton River Delta near Onslow (it’s only 15km compared to 60 for JPP from Broome) doesn’t get any? Not good enough for you Greenies? No Centrelink Office within 300km?]
Why ask me?
Crank
[and nada, not a rise.]
You’re a pussey!
BB @2998
Disagree.
I don’t think he would necessarily be pushing for it, but I think he would be drafted because for the ALP he would see it is the least worst option and for himself it is probably his last shot at the title.
It would have to be after an abdication and not a challenge.
Anoyone heard a peep out of The Australian for the last fortnight?
Just occurred to me: they’ve been awfully quiet over at Holt St.
Woah.
If the Gillard backers are the ones floating Crean, then they must realise that Gillard is a gonner.
Are they floating Crean as a way to scare backbenchers into falling back behind Gillard?
Are they saying to them if Gillard goes they will work the numbers for Crean?
[It would have to be after an abdication and not a challenge.]
Go to bed. Get some shut-eye. Ain’t gonna happen.
Bushfire Bill@2998
As for the first I’ll take the strategic wisdom of the concept far more seriously if it turns out he’s a stalking horse for Dick Adams! (I just tweeted that too.)
As for the second, I mildly suspect and slightly fear that he actually wants it!
@3001 Swampy – I’m asking anyone on the left – never get a straight answer.
Even the stunningly gorgeous Wilderness Society Babes handing out propaganda aboutJames Price Point at polling booths on March 9 didn’t have an answer.
CC – ever heard the expression “not your personal army”?
[there are LNG projects and then there LNG projects for professional and celebrity protestors]
Other than LNG what have those two projects got in common other than they are in completely different places and one place hasn’t upset anyone?
[didn’t have an answer]
Because it is a silly question.
Serious speculation of Crean suggests Gillard’s leadership is terminal.
Whether it is serious speculation remains to be seen.
This feels different to the recent fabricated scuttlebutt to be honest.
Folks in the media are seriously speculating. Is that serious enough for you?
“Shocked, shocked, shocked. From AFR: “Senator Carr’s denial ‘hilarious’.” “@RogerLamb1: PM’s support crumbling http://t.co/IWX6nfUMLf ”
‘It has been rumoured for some weeks that Senator Carr has been conniving against Ms Gillard and would support a leadership push after the May budget. One of his ministerial colleagues said Senator Carr’s denial was “hilarious’’.’
Radguy @3009 – no. Did an Internet search for the term and still don’t understand why you mention it.
Long time reader, first time poster.
We all need to get behind Julia for the good of the ALP. She lead us into the wilderness, she’s the only one who can lead us out or we should die trying
[Can someone please point out how STUPID bringing Crean back would be, and how little he would WANT to be brought back?]
Floating Crean smacks of a desperate plan B.
I think it is by the Gillard supporters to try to get MPs back behind Gillard.
[Serious speculation of Crean]
Sorry, who is ‘seriously’ ‘speculating’ about Crean?
JV,
Meh. I’ve seen reports written with more authority be completely wrong on this. Nice to know you support the fall of a progressive Government though, over very little at all.
Compact Crank
I live in Byron Bay, at the moment. I know nothing about WA and have zero interest. You can join Seth Afrika for all I care. I am sure that is where you might feel more at home.
Having stood still all my life, I find myself far more “left”of the ALP than I was when young, as they stampede to their glorious “progressive” right-wing future, which funnily enough, they never explain what that future goal.
Too obsessed with leadership, I presume.
In all right-wing parties the Leader is all important.
@JV/3014
Why would may budget has anything to do with this?
I thought it was suppose to be this week? or is this just another attempt?
Any more BS?
Serious people, confessions.
Actually, victoria mentioned something about a third, none of the usual suspects contender the other day, does this match?
‘Serious Speculation’ alert:
[Beyonce Knowles regrets putting herself under pressure to lose her post-baby weight.
The singer – who welcomed daughter Blue Ivy Carter with rapper husband Jay-Z into the world in January 2012 – has admitted she had to work extremely hard to lose the 26kg she gained during her first pregnancy because she isn’t naturally thin and wishes she had taken more time to do it.]
I’m not saying Beyonce was
fatbaby-weight challenged, just that she filled out her clothing a little more than she used to.Shows On,
[Floating Crean smacks of a desperate plan B.]
This Crean business reveals how desperate the media are to pretend there is a story.
WWP @3010 – actually they are almost identical – greenfields site on near pristine wilderness with the agreement of the local Clan.
The hypocrisy of the Greens is astounding (well not really because everyone is uded to it).
Here you go CC
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=not%20your%20personal%20army
DisplayName
Thanks, I think! 😆
Coorey has done something useful for once and potentially explained the reasoning behind the Friday challenge mystery – parliament sitting might be extended to deal with media laws.
By all means, set up your own action group.
You really expect the greens to picket every location where the natural environment is threatened?
Crank – Your 5 year old is just waiting until you’re old enough to spank.
I think Carr or Crean is preparing to be the sacrificial lamb should the party fail in backing Julia. How can such a noble party not be behind the glorious Julia? She’s been a rock and the star performer of a group of star performers.
She is the Beyonce to the ALPs Destinys Child!
I must say I find it quite heartwarming how the Rudd and Gillard camps in here can come together as one on the topic of how moronic a Crean-stallation would be. Namaste! 🙂
Swampy @3020 How are Hoges and Stropp?
Just imagine what a Kevin-Julia team could give us.
Wait, wut?
Silas
A serious politician focused on what can be done.
So therefore a stand out.
Radguy @3029 Wouldn’t be too much to ask for some consistency from the Greens, would it?
Nah, don’t worry about that.
Compact Crank
[Swampy @3020 How are Hoges and Stropp?]
You are informed CC! 🙂
No idea.
Strope sold the Beach Hotel some years ago. I believe he owns the Brunswick Heads pub now. (15 kms north)
Hoges, no idea.
I agree. Julia is what we have and what we need.
There can be only one. There can be no other. Solidarity together.
How would a leadership ballot work if there are three candidates?
CTar1 @3030 Mate, he’s already started and he has a height advantage.
Talking about ballots is defeatist. Are you a Labor man or mouse?
@3039 – Radguy
The Deer Hunter Method.
It maybe interesting in the future to read exactly why the ALP consumed itself with intra-party personality cults.
On the other hand after 12 years of lazy Liberal rule who will be interested or remember?
Gillard? Rudd?
SS @3038
That should be – “There can be only one Highlander!”
Time to put aside the petty internal politics and fist pump Solidarity Forever Gagnum Style!!
Peter
I saw Beasley coming out of the Big Man store in Adelaide a few years ago. He’s a very imposing person in real life.
Flipper Boy
You must be working full time of your leadershit calls list. It’s going to become War and Peace soon.
Local paper has asked people on Facebook what they think of the govt’s media laws. Some comments:
[Unwarranted. British media issue’s are not Australia’s.]
[Draconian and repressive]
[That’s an EXTREMELY interesting question coming from a Newspaper – but congratulations for having the testicular fortitude to ask the question . Personally, I think they are LONG overdue – I find it galling that, on one hand, certain “entities” scream disgust and denouncement, with their argument underpinned by “freedom of the press” and yet, unashamedly and obviously use the power of the press to promulgate very biased content – and yes, the recent election is a perfect example of this – there was (as always) excellent snippet coverage of this issue by Jonathan Holmes in Media Watch last night http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/31868 – the media have abused their position for far too long – they have a huge responsibility and need to start taking it seriously – watch the show – it certainly sets a few things straight.]
[ I’m not totally across the bill yet but what they need to do is regulate to ensure plurality. At the moment in this coubtry you have three old white men controlling the majority of the content, and a public broadcaster who are good, but face constant threats to funding etc. It’s time for a change.]
[And the British issue is an Australian issue because it’s the same known lunatic who owns the company that’s operating in both areas]
A few others which are a bit more personal about the PM, but the substantive comments are in favour.
Radguy@3039
Same way the three-way Turnbull-Hockey-Abbott ballot worked a few years ago.
Hold one ballot with three candidates. If a candidate receives outright majority they win. Otherwise, eliminate lowest-scoring candidate and hold second ballot of remaining two.
(There is a neat rumour that some Abbott supporters deliberately voted for Turnbull in the first ballot in order to eliminate Hockey. I don’t know if it’s true or not!)
Crank
😆
[ he’s already started and he has a height advantage.]
Maybe the gas will give you a temporary height boost.
I’ve got 4 great nieces 6 and under who live very near by and competition is intense, for blocks, attention, lollies, ice creams and any thing else you could name.
Crikey Silas
I couldn’t tell if you were kidding with your earlier post about “JG led us into the wilderness so she better lead us out, or we’ll all die trying”. Seriously, I thought it was high irony. What’s the point in dying? Because that’s what the polls are telling you – in the words of the Nielsen pollster, 27 straight polls are telling you that plain and simple.