GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.
UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.
UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research
Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.
UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll
Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.
Newspoll was a rogue.
Neilsen 56
Morgan 55.5
Essential 55
Galaxy 55
Newspoll 52
Bugger.
You can’t call one poll a rogue.
Unless you can compare with similar Newspoll.
[Newspoll was a rogue.]
I think the accepted Pollbludger spelling is rouge.
Nielsen
The ALP primary is 31 (+1).
This result will whip up the Press Gallery into a maniacal frenzy re Ruddstoration this week.
Sigh…..
So nothing changed over the last month.
[The ALP primary is 31 (+1).]
Green vote going south?
CT
[Dio – Water colours … Turner would be suspect!
(How is your painting going?)]
The Klee is finally finished.
I can’t face starting another Rothko after the last disaster.
I’m considering Japanese calligraphy instead.
except that both Nielsen and Newspoll saying the Coalition stampeding has slowed once again.
Ha! Hate to say I told youse so, but I did predict this. So what we know will happen this week is:
1. Ruddstoration Hysteria will be in full ramp up mode tomorrow through to Thursday in anticipation of a leadership change.
2. When no leadership change occurs, and Parliament rises at the end of the week as normal, Ruddstoration Frustration will set in.
3. The Ruddstoration Hysteria/Frustration will continue to ebb and flow according to polls and OM reaction for the remainder of the 7 week parliamentary recess.
Unadjusted average 54.7
Adjusted average = 54.3:
Neilsen 56 – 0.6 = 55.4
Morgan 55.5 + 0.2 = 55.7
Essential 55 -1.3 = 53.7
Galaxy 55 – 0.9 = 54.1
Newspoll 52 + 0.4 = 52.4
I think the accepted Pollbludger spelling is rouge.
I just lurvvv that rouge – such a vibrant colour. Liberal blue is such a downer!
How will your TPP vote go if Rudd is returned to the leadership confessions?
Dio – The Japanese stuff looks hard.
You didn’t finish the bird job?
Wel there you have it. Time for Rudd and his little clique to show what they’re made of and actually, you know, DO something.
If its just another boring week of a few anonymous “Rudd camp” Labor sources bagging Gillard I won’t be surprised though. All talk so far.
My cross-pollster aggregate has gone to 54.6.
[Is that right in that case sickening, not it was dated in January what has been done. Where is Rummel when he could possibly shed some light on this.]
Im NSW, so im not sure of how VIC works. Regardless, on face value this gent treatment seems harsh.
I don’t know if this has been discussed or not – but with Morgan’s change of method (or metho), is there any point looking at it until we get a decent number of samples?
@Mod Lib
The only vote people care about is election day.
Mod Lib@15
Hahahaha… you devil Mod Lib. 👿
Before there is any poll taken, confessions brain will have exploded, along with a few others here.
zoidlord:
I suspect a few ALP backbenchers will be thumbing through the wanted ads tonight…
ML:
If there is a change of leadership then we’ll just have to see how the polls respond.
I am actually just interested bemused….confessions is under absolutely no pressure to answer!
Did you here about the hot air balloon that hit the treasury building the other day…… the pilot is the wife of one of our brigade members lol.
@Mod Lib/23
@bemused/22
I doubt it… The polling doesn’t look south both Primary +1 and Preferred is no change.
This poll has no credibility!
If not for the News LTD/Gillard Coalition it would be 80/20. Would Gillard form government with 2PP of 20%?
😉
In all seriousness. Looks like the newspoll was a bit rogueish. Gillard has to be gone this week, doesn’t she?
absolutetwaddle@17
Rudd will not challenge.
I think he is just leaving it to those who made the error with Gillard to rectify it.
Te alternative would leave too much damage and division in it’s wake.
[SirLeslieHammondQC @LeslieHammondQC
@sspencer_63 @vanOnselenP Interesting. He’s deleted a bunch of tweets made during exchanges with me, making my tweets seem odd & w/o context]
If this is true then it’s gutless from PvO. I’ve had one exchange with PvO on twitter about same sex marriage where he DM’d me to privately agree with my argument which I thought was odd given we were both arguing the same point.
But still, how strange.
I guess a no change poll will be beaten up for what its worth. Gillard is GORN I tell you
May as well re-post, given some light relief may be required…
Re Piers & Insiders,
Was sitting in bed with my 2yo twins this morning watching Insiders on abc24 ( they would prefer Peppa Pig on abc2, but hey, swings & roundabouts – have lost count of the number of repeats of In the NightGarden I have watched).
This is quite relevant because, from the moment Piers vented, till the end of his quite animated rupturing of his spleen, the bubs were absolutely captivated at the sight & sound of his cartoon like fury.
And then they sat quietly with me till the end of the show.
If nothing else, I would like to thank Piers for granting me this rare moment of peace whilst watching a tv show I want to watch.
Labor leadership betting is intriguing. I’m not a leadership change supporter but someone has put money on both Rudd and Crean. Mind you in the event a change to Rudd leads to a change to Turnbull then I can live with that.
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 46 Rudd 42 Shorten 7 #auspol]
[GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (L/NP Voters): Gillard 12 Rudd 42 Shorten 24 #auspol]
rummel
[Did you here about the hot air balloon that hit the treasury]
I posted the vid of it here or there.
If the Department of Finance was still there I would have been in favour of the gas bottles exploding on impact.
Gorilla@20
This is a good question. One of the things about the new Morgan is that its sample size is bloody enormous, meaning that its MOE is tiny – and indeed differences between it and the trend of other pollsters could be as much the fault of all the other pollsters combined as Morgan.
Anyway since the first one was just over a point below my aggregate of all other pollsters at the time, and the second one was just over a point above, I’ve assumed the mega-Morgan has no significant house effect until there’s evidence otherwise, and I’m using it on that basis, but I’m not weighting it nearly as heavily as its sample size deserves.
unfortnate that the 1% shift in PV has translated into a 2PP shift. Even a small shift would have reduced the OM”s ability to overreact to this poll.
wonder if the PPM has shifted?
astrology.com.au is predicting no Ruddstoration tomorrow.
Virgo (Rudd): “You can always renegotiate the terms of your loan if you feel as if you are getting in too deep and may not be able to make the payments. For those without a mortgage an abrupt change will seem appealing but is not advisable.”
Libra (Gillard): “People may be commenting that you look different, that your mood is not what it usually is. You realise that you are going through dramatic changes now and may yourself not understand the real reason although you sense that it is ultimately a good thing. When people don’t quite understand these changes it indeed gives you an opportunity to take control of the situation through the element of surprise and mystery.”
I don’t understand that one either.
Scorpio (Abbott): “Getting back into a hobby or pleasurable activity which you had cast aside for a long while will now bring you great satisfaction. You’ll realise just how much you enjoyed this past time and will become better at it now. Home affairs will be spotlighted during the next couple of days so try not to lose the opportunity to create a really nice space for yourself domestically. Social events can wait.”
More to come on his plans for Indigenous Affairs?
what are the figures for preferred Liberal leader?
#Newspoll Preferred ALP Leader (ALP Voters): Gillard 46 Rudd 42 Shorten 7 #auspol
the real LABOR supporters, the majority, support PM Gillard, the traitors, like them painful doggys support you know who.
Nemspy@29
We can live in hope.
Ghost was early tonigh.
42% of the 34% who support Labor are traitors?
1347 on the previous thread.
Melbourne does have the longest tram network in the world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tram
New South Wales being called New South Wales was clearly a prediction that the first Welsh-born Prime Minister anywhere (we know of) would be in Australia.
[what are the figures for preferred Liberal leader?]
Good question. If it was asked, they aren’t available yet.
Oh wait…!
GrimTidings@33
Best Piers story ever! 😆
Lucky you with your two year olds – gorgeous at that age.
Piers would make a good daddy pig. Pink faced and generally useless.
Those preferred Labor leader numbers are from last week’s Newspoll, not tonight’s Nielsen.
Aren’t they the Newspoll stats from last week? Ghost hasn’t posted any leadership info yet.